Core Insights - Altria Group Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2024 results with earnings and revenues exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates, showcasing year-over-year earnings growth while net revenues remained stable compared to the previous year [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter were $1.29, reflecting a 9.3% increase year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.27 [2] - Net revenues totaled $5,974 million, nearly unchanged from the prior year, with a 1.6% increase in revenues net of excise taxes to $5,106 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $5,049.7 million [3] Segment Analysis - **Smokeable Products**: Net revenues decreased by 0.2% year over year to $5,263 million, impacted by reduced shipment volumes and increased promotional investments, although higher pricing provided some offset. Revenues net of excise taxes rose by 1.7% [4][6] - Domestic cigarette shipment volumes fell by 8.8%, attributed to industry decline and retail share losses, while cigar shipment volumes increased by 2.9% [5] - Adjusted operating income (OCI) in this segment increased by 5.5% to $2,709 million, with adjusted OCI margins growing by 2.2 percentage points to 61.2% [6] - **Oral Tobacco Products**: Net revenues rose by 2.7% to $692 million, driven by higher pricing, despite a slight decrease in domestic shipment volumes by 0.4% [7][8] - Adjusted OCI for this segment increased by 13% to $461 million, with adjusted OCI margins expanding by 6.4 percentage points to 69.5% [8] Shareholder Returns and Future Outlook - The company completed a $3.4 billion share repurchase program, repurchasing 5.8 million shares for $310 million in the fourth quarter, and authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program expected to be completed by December 31, 2025 [9][10] - Altria paid dividends totaling $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter and $6.8 billion for the entire year [10] - For 2025, the company anticipates adjusted EPS in the range of $5.22 to $5.37, indicating a growth of 2-5% from the $5.12 reported in 2024 [12]

Core Insights - The primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to achieve an overall yield in the range of 7% to 10% by combining various income streams to create a steady portfolio payout [1] - Altria Group, Inc. reported quarterly earnings that exceeded estimates, driven by strong growth from its product on! [1] Company Performance - Altria Group, Inc. beat earnings estimates on both revenue and earnings per share, indicating robust financial performance [1] - The company’s income stream remains consistent despite fluctuations in the portfolio's price [1] Investment Strategy - The Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio focuses on generating attractive and steady income through diverse income sources [1] - The portfolio includes features such as access to a leader's personal income portfolio targeting yields over 6%, community chat, and a "Best Opportunities" list [1]

Core Viewpoint - Altria's stock declined due to disappointing guidance for 2025, with shares down 4.2% following the announcement [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was flat at $5.97 billion, but excluding excise taxes, it increased by 1.6% to $5.11 billion, surpassing estimates of $5.05 billion [2] - Adjusted earnings per share rose by 9.3% to $1.29, aligning closely with analyst consensus of $1.28 [4] Market Dynamics - Cigarette sales continued to decline, with volumes dropping 8.8% to 16.6 billion sticks, and Marlboro's market share decreased by one percentage point to 41.3% [2] - The oral nicotine pouch product, on!, saw strong growth, reaching 43.9 million cans, although it was insufficient to boost the overall oral tobacco category [3] Future Outlook - Management's guidance for adjusted earnings per share growth of 2% to 5% (projected at $5.22 to $5.37) fell short of the analyst consensus of $5.35, contributing to the stock's decline [4] - CEO Billy Gifford emphasized 2024 as a pivotal year for the company, highlighting the potential for solid income growth and margin expansion from core tobacco businesses [4] Challenges - The company faces significant challenges, including competition from both legal and illegal vapes, as well as regulatory threats to the tobacco industry [5] - Despite a safe dividend yield of nearly 8%, weak earnings growth could jeopardize the company's ability to maintain dividend growth [5]

Core Insights - Altria reported revenue of $5.11 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, reflecting a 1.6% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +1.12% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.05 billion [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $1.29, up from $1.18 in the same quarter last year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.27 by +1.57% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Net revenue from Oral tobacco products was $663 million, exceeding the average estimate of $646.04 million, with a year-over-year increase of +2.5% [4] - Revenue from Smokeable Products reached $4.42 billion, slightly above the estimated $4.36 billion, marking a +1.7% change compared to the previous year [4] - Net revenue from All Other/Financial Services was reported at $19 million, which is a significant decline of -29.6% year-over-year, surpassing the average estimate of $17.50 million [4] Operating Income - Operating income for Oral tobacco products was $453 million, slightly above the average estimate of $446.59 million [4] - Adjusted operating income for Smokeable Products was reported at $2.71 billion, just below the estimated $2.72 billion [4] - The operating loss for All Other/Financial Services was -$123 million, worse than the average estimate of -$92 million [4] Stock Performance - Altria's shares have returned +0.7% over the past month, compared to a +1.2% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for outperformance in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Altria reported quarterly earnings of $1.29 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.27 per share, and showing an increase from $1.18 per share a year ago [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $5.11 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.12% and up from $5.02 billion year-over-year [3] - Altria's earnings surprise was 1.57%, and it has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times over the last four quarters [2][3] Stock Performance and Outlook - Altria shares have increased by approximately 0.7% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 2.7% [4] - The company's earnings outlook is favorable, with a current consensus EPS estimate of $1.21 for the upcoming quarter and $5.35 for the current fiscal year [8] Industry Context - The Tobacco industry, to which Altria belongs, is currently ranked in the top 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a strong performance potential [9] - Turning Point Brands, another company in the same industry, is expected to report a quarterly earnings decline of 17.7% year-over-year, with revenues projected at $102.25 million, up 5.3% from the previous year [10]

Financial Performance - Altria's adjusted diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) increased by 34% from $495 in FY 2023 to $512 in FY 2024[7] - The company returned $102 billion in cash to shareholders[7] - Smokeable Products Segment adjusted Operating Companies Income (OCI) increased by 20% to $10922 million for the full year 2024[53] - Oral Tobacco Products Segment adjusted OCI increased by 130% to $461 million in Q4 2024[74] Market Trends and Volume - The nicotine space is experiencing growth, with an estimated volume of 172 billion equivalized cigarette packs in 2024[12] - Combustible cigarette volume continues to decline, while e-vapor shows significant growth with a CAGR of approximately 45%[12] - Illicit products are driving e-vapor category growth, with disposable e-vapor forms estimated at ~170 billion equivalized cigarette packs and all other forms at ~200 billion in 2024[15] - The oral tobacco industry volume grew by 15% in the six months ended in 2024[37] NJOY and on! Performance - NJOY shipment volume for consumables reached 128 million in Q4 2024, a 222% increase compared to Q4 2023[31] - NJOY consumables retail share reached 64% in total US in Q4 2024, a 28 percentage points increase[31] - on! shipment volume reached 439 million cans in Q4 2024, a 444% increase compared to Q4 2023[37] - on! share of the oral tobacco category reached 89% in Q4 2024, a 20 percentage points increase[40] Outlook and Challenges - The company expects full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $522 to $537, representing a growth rate of 2% to 5% from a 2024 base of $512[50] - Illicit markets compromise the company's ability to achieve its 2028 US Smoke-Free Volume and Smoke-Free Revenue goals[23]

Financial Performance - Altria reported Q4 2024 net revenues of $5,974 million, unchanged from Q4 2023, and full-year 2024 net revenues of $24,018 million, a decrease of 1.9% compared to 2023[2]. - Adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 2024 was $1.29, an increase of 9.3%, while full-year adjusted diluted EPS was $5.12, up 3.4% from 2023[2][25]. - Net revenues were essentially unchanged at $6.0 billion, with revenues net of excise taxes increasing 1.6% to $5.1 billion[5]. - Reported diluted EPS increased 54.3% to $1.79, driven by favorable income tax items and fewer shares outstanding[5]. - For the full-year 2024, net pre-tax income of $2.5 billion (or $1.08 per share) was recorded from acquisition-related items, mainly from a pre-tax gain of $2.7 billion on the assignment of IQOS commercialization rights[29]. - Net revenues for Q4 2024 were $5,974 million, a slight decrease of 0.02% compared to $5,975 million in Q4 2023[77]. - Net earnings for Q4 2024 rose significantly by 47.5% to $3,039 million, compared to $2,060 million in Q4 2023[77]. - For the full year 2024, net revenues were $24,018 million, a decrease of 1.9% from $24,483 million in 2023[81]. - Net earnings for the full year 2024 increased by 38.5% to $11,264 million, compared to $8,130 million in 2023[81]. - Diluted earnings per share for the full year 2024 rose by 43.1% to $6.54, up from $4.57 in 2023[81]. Share Repurchase and Debt Management - Altria completed a $3.4 billion share repurchase program in 2024, repurchasing 73.5 million shares at an average price of $46.26[9]. - The company announced a new $1 billion share repurchase program expected to be completed by December 31, 2025[9]. - The company aims to achieve a debt-to-Consolidated EBITDA ratio of approximately 2.0x, with a current ratio of 2.1x[12]. - Total debt as of December 31, 2024, was $24,926 million, down from $26,233 million in 2023[97]. - Consolidated EBITDA for 2024 was $12,157 million, with a total debt to consolidated EBITDA ratio of 2.1[102]. Product Performance and Market Trends - NJOY consumables reported shipment volume increased by 15.3% in Q4 2024 to 12.8 million units, while devices saw a 22.2% increase to 1.1 million units[9]. - Total U.S. smoke-free net revenues in 2024 were $2.8 billion, with innovative smoke-free products contributing $0.3 billion[12]. - Domestic cigarette shipment volume decreased 10.2% for the full year, primarily due to the industry's decline rate and retail share losses[51]. - Marlboro's retail share of the total cigarette category was 41.3%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point compared to the prior year[52]. - The oral tobacco products segment's retail share decreased to 36.8% in Q4 2024, down from 39.9% in Q4 2023[65]. - The total U.S. oral tobacco category share for on! nicotine pouches increased to 8.9% in Q4 2024, up by 2.0 percentage points year-over-year[65]. - The U.S. nicotine pouch category grew to 45.7% of the U.S. oral tobacco category, an increase of 9.6 percentage points compared to the previous year[65]. Operating Income and Costs - Altria's total reported OCI margin for 2024 was 58.0%, while the total adjusted OCI margin was 60.3%[12]. - Operating companies income for Q4 2024 was $2,968 million, a 1.3% increase from $2,929 million in Q4 2023[77]. - The company reported a significant increase in marketing, administration, and research costs, which rose to $601 million in Q4 2024 from $570 million in Q4 2023[77]. - Operating companies income for 2024 was $11,856 million, down 3.8% from $12,318 million in 2023[83]. Tax and Impairment Items - Income tax items for the full-year 2024 amounted to $969 million (or $0.56 per share), primarily related to the reversal of an unrecognized tax benefit[37]. - For the full-year 2023, a non-cash, pre-tax loss of $250 million (or $0.14 per share) was recorded related to the disposition of JUUL equity securities[32]. - The company incurred asset impairment, exit, and implementation costs of $422 million in 2024[83]. - The company reported a loss on the sale of IQOS System commercialization rights amounting to $2,700 million[102]. Adjusted Earnings and Special Items - Adjusted net earnings for 2024 were $8,821 million, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.01% from $8,822 million in 2023[95]. - Acquisition, disposition, and integration-related items negatively impacted EPS by $1.08 in 2024[106]. - Income tax items reduced EPS by $0.56 in 2024 compared to a reduction of $0.40 in 2022[106]. - JUUL changes in fair value contributed $0.81 to EPS in 2022, with no impact in 2024[106]. - Asset impairment, exit, and implementation costs added $0.18 to EPS in 2024, with no prior impact[106].

Group 1 - Altria is currently outperforming its Consumer Staples peers with a year-to-date return of 2.2%, while the average return for the sector is -0.6% [4] - The Zacks Rank for Altria is 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook as the consensus estimate for full-year earnings has increased by 0.9% over the past quarter [3] - Altria belongs to the Tobacco industry, which has an average year-to-date gain of 39.1%, suggesting that Altria is slightly underperforming its industry [5] Group 2 - Simply Good Foods, another stock in the Consumer Staples sector, has a year-to-date return of 0.9% and also holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [4][5] - The Food - Confectionery industry, where Simply Good Foods is categorized, has seen a decline of -15.6% since the beginning of the year [6] - Investors should monitor both Altria and Simply Good Foods for their potential to maintain solid performance in the Consumer Staples sector [6]

Earnings Report and Expectations - Altria Group Inc is scheduled to report earnings for the December quarter pre-market on January 30th [1] - Consensus expectations for revenue and net income are set at $5 04 billion and $2 17 billion respectively [1] - Expectations for revenue and net income are viewed as reasonable [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has experience as an investment analyst for a major BB-Bank and as a private equity consultant for MBB [1] - The analyst is currently working towards the CFA charter having completed levels I and II [1] - The analyst has a passion for risk-assets including growth contrarian and emerging market investments [1]

Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is likely to register growth in top and bottom-lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Jan. 30. Although the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has moved down a couple of cents in the past seven days to $1.27 per share, the projection indicates growth of 7.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.The consensus mark for 2024 earnings is pegged at $5.13 per share, suggesting a 3.6% increase from the prior-year reported figure. MO has a trailing four-qua ...