Core Insights - Novartis reported Q3 2025 earnings, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching $41.196 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase [1] - Q3 revenue was $13.909 billion, reflecting a 7% year-over-year growth, while net profit for the quarter was $3.93 billion, up 25% [1] - Revenue from the Chinese market for the first three quarters was $3.2 billion, marking a 5% year-over-year increase [1] Product Performance - The breast cancer treatment drug Kisqali (ribociclib) saw a 68% increase in sales compared to the same quarter last year [1] - The multiple sclerosis treatment Kesimpta (ofatumumab) generated $1.22 billion in revenue for the quarter, a 44% year-over-year growth [1] - Pluvicto (lutetium [177Lu] vipivotide tetraxetan) reported sales of $564 million, a 45% increase from Q3 2024 [1] - Long-acting PCSK9 product Leqvio (inclisiran) achieved total revenue of $863 million for the first three quarters, a significant 61% year-over-year increase [1]

Core Insights - Novartis AG reported core earnings per share of $2.25 in Q3, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny but up from $2.06 a year ago, driven by sales growth [1][7] - Revenues reached $13.9 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, slightly beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate [1][2] Sales Performance - On a constant currency basis, sales increased by 7%, supported by strong performances from Kisqali, Kesimpta, Scemblix, and Pluvicto, which offset the negative impact of generic competition for Promacta, Tasigna, and Entresto [2][4] - Core operating income rose 7% to $5.5 billion [2] Key Drug Performance - Kisqali sales surged 68% to $1.33 billion, driven by growth in the United States [8] - Kesimpta sales increased 44% to $1.2 billion, exceeding estimates [9] - Pluvicto sales grew 45% to $564 million, benefiting from expanded indications [11] - Entresto sales decreased 1% to $1.9 billion due to generic competition, missing estimates [5][6] - Cosentyx sales were down 1% to $1.7 billion, impacted by a one-time revenue adjustment [6] Strategic Developments - Novartis announced the acquisition of Avidity Biosciences for $12 billion to enhance its neuroscience pipeline, focusing on genetic neuromuscular diseases [18][19] - The company expects net sales to grow in high single digits and core operating income to grow in the low teens by 2025 [17] Other Updates - Novartis received FDA approval for remibrutinib as a treatment for chronic spontaneous urticaria [21] - The company is advancing its pipeline with new drug approvals and collaborations, including a licensing agreement with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals for a preclinical-stage therapy targeting Parkinson's disease [27]

ANALYSIS: Are Prediction Markets Turning Brokers Into Bookies? Notably, sales of heart-failure treatment Entresto fell 1%, in constant currency, to $1.88 billion. Entresto is facing off with generic competition. Generics took a 7 percentage-point hit on Entresto sales, Novartis said in its news release. Novartis reaffirmed its outlook for the year. Sales are expected to grow by a high single-digit percentage, while core operating income is projected to increase by a low-teens percentage. Analysts projected ...

Financial Performance - Novartis reported a 7% increase in net sales and core operating income for Q3 2025, with a core margin of 39.3% [5][27] - Core EPS rose by 10% to $2.25, and free cash flow totaled $6.2 billion for the quarter [28][27] - For the first nine months, net sales grew by 11%, core operating income by 18%, and core EPS increased by 21% to $6.94 [28][29] Business Line Performance - Key brands showed strong growth: Kisqali grew 68%, Pluvicto 45%, Leqvio 54%, and Scemblix 95% in constant currency [6][10][14][16] - Kisqali's U.S. growth was particularly strong at 91%, with a market-leading position in both metastatic and early breast cancer [7][9] - Pluvicto's growth was driven by new patient starts, with U.S. sales up 53% [11][12] - Leqvio is on track for over $1 billion in sales, with significant growth in both the U.S. and international markets [14][15] - Scemblix is expected to become the most prescribed TKI in the U.S. [16] Market Performance - The U.S. experienced negative growth due to net true-ups related to Medicare Part D redesign, but underlying growth would have been 9% without these adjustments [27][28] - Outside the U.S., Kisqali saw 37% growth in constant currency, and Pluvicto is expanding in Europe, Canada, and Brazil [7][12] - The renal portfolio, particularly IGAN, grew 98% in the U.S., significantly outpacing market growth [20][21] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - Novartis is focused on driving growth through its priority brands and pipeline advancements, despite facing generic erosion from products like Entresto [5][28] - The company is pursuing strategic acquisitions, including Avidity Biosciences, to enhance its growth trajectory [35][36] - Novartis aims to maintain a core margin of around 40% despite expected short-term dilution from new product launches [35][36] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in mid to long-term growth, reaffirming guidance for high single-digit growth in net sales and low teens growth in core operating income for the full year [31][38] - The company anticipates challenges in the first half of 2026 due to generic competition but expects a stronger second half [33][34] - Management highlighted the importance of addressing pricing and reimbursement issues with the administration to support innovation [41][42] Other Important Information - Novartis is preparing for regulatory submissions for several products, including remibrutinib and ianalumab, with expectations for rapid uptake in the market [22][24] - The company is focused on enhancing its R&D capabilities and expanding its manufacturing base in the U.S. [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of Medicaid and tariffs on the industry - Management indicated that while some companies have reached agreements with the administration, Novartis is in ongoing discussions to find suitable solutions [41][42] Question: CapEx and cash flow modeling - Management clarified that the majority of the $23 billion commitment over five years is for R&D OpEx, with CapEx expected to remain stable at 2.5%-3% of sales [42][43] Question: Market reaction to ATR abstract - Management expressed confidence that detailed data presentation would improve market perception and emphasized the importance of patient benefits over statistical measures [46][47] Question: Pluvicto launch curve and peak sales ambition - Management stated that Pluvicto is on a strong growth trajectory, expecting to reach peak sales of $5 billion with ongoing efforts to tackle commercialization challenges [55][56][58] Question: Remibrutinib ramp-up and European adoption - Management highlighted the focus on payer negotiations and the potential for rapid uptake in the U.S. and Europe, emphasizing the innovative profile of remibrutinib [62][64] Question: Ianalumab study results and secondary endpoints - Management explained the statistical significance achieved in primary endpoints and the importance of patient-relevant outcomes for future discussions with physicians [68][71] Question: Cosentyx market share and new formulation - Management noted that there has been no significant impact from competitor launches and emphasized ongoing efforts to maintain market share in a growing market [74]

Novartis AG Financial Performance and Market Position AnalysisNovartis AG (NYSE:NVS), a leading global healthcare company, is renowned for its innovative pharmaceuticals. The company is a key player in the pharmaceutical industry, competing with giants like Pfizer and Merck. On October 28, 2025, Novartis reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.25, slightly below the expected $2.26. However, the company achieved a revenue of approximately $13.9 billion, surpassing the estimated $13.8 billion, as reported ...

Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, net sales grew by 7% year-over-year, and core operating income also increased by 7%, with a core margin of 39.3% [4][26] - Excluding negative adjustments, underlying growth would have been 9% for net sales and 11% for core operating income, driven by priority brands and new launches [26][27] - Core EPS reached $2.25, reflecting a 10% increase, and free cash flow totaled $6.2 billion [27][28] - For the first nine months, net sales grew by 11%, core operating income increased by 18%, and core EPS was up 21% at $6.94 [27][28] Business Line Performance - Kisqali experienced a 68% growth in Q3, with U.S. growth at 91%, making it a leader in both metastatic and early breast cancer markets [5][6] - Pluvicto grew by 45% in constant currency, with U.S. sales up 53%, driven by new patient starts [10][11] - Leqvio sales increased by 54%, on track for over $1 billion in annual sales, with strong performance in both the U.S. and international markets [13][14] - Scemblix grew by 95% in constant currency, becoming the most prescribed TKI by NBRx in the U.S. [15] - Cosentyx had a mixed quarter, with a slight decline in growth due to one-time effects, but remains on track for mid-single-digit growth for the full year [16][17] Market Performance - Kisqali's early breast cancer indication is approved in 56 countries, with significant growth potential outside the U.S. [6][10] - Pluvicto is expected to reach peak sales potential with ongoing approvals in Japan and China [12] - Leqvio shows strong uptake in various international markets, particularly in China and the Middle East [14] - Scemblix is gaining traction in both first-line and second-line settings, with a strong launch momentum in Japan [15] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focused on driving growth through its priority brands while managing the impact of generic erosion from key products [4][5] - The proposed acquisition of Avidity Biosciences is expected to enhance long-term growth prospects and support mid-single-digit growth over the long term [33][34] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong pipeline and investing in R&D to support future growth [28][29] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating generic headwinds and reaffirmed guidance for high single-digit growth in net sales and low teens growth in core operating income for the full year [29][30] - The company anticipates a challenging first half of 2026 due to the impact of generics but expects to emerge stronger in the second half [31][32] - Management highlighted the importance of addressing pricing and reimbursement challenges in the current regulatory environment [38][61] Other Important Information - The company achieved significant pipeline milestones, including FDA approvals and positive phase 3 results for several key products [4][20] - Management emphasized the importance of cash flow for reinvestment and shareholder returns, with a new $10 billion share buyback program announced [28][29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Industry response to Medicaid and tariffs - Management noted ongoing discussions with the administration and emphasized the need for solutions that address underlying industry issues [38] Question: CapEx over the next five years - Management clarified that the majority of the $23 billion commitment is for R&D OpEx, with no significant increase in CapEx expected [39][40] Question: Market reaction to ATR abstract - Management expressed confidence that detailed data presentation would improve market appreciation of the product [43][44] Question: Impact of Ocrevus subcutaneous launch on Cosentyx - Management indicated no significant impact from Ocrevus, with Cosentyx maintaining its market share [69][70] Question: Pluvicto launch curve and peak sales ambition - Management stated that Pluvicto is on a strong growth trajectory, with expectations of reaching $5 billion in peak sales [52][56]

Core Insights - Novartis has successfully completed the acquisition of Tourmaline Bio, Inc., making it an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Novartis [1][2] - The acquisition aligns with Novartis's strategy to enhance its expertise in cardiovascular innovation, particularly through the promising asset Pacibekitug, which targets residual inflammation linked to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease [2][3] - The tender offer for Tourmaline's shares was completed with approximately 24,030,382 shares validly tendered, representing about 92.94% of the outstanding shares, at a price of $48.00 per share [2][3] Company Strategy - The acquisition is part of Novartis's broader strategy to lead in areas where it can add significant value, particularly in the field of cardiovascular therapies [2] - Novartis aims to collaborate with Tourmaline's team to advance the development of its innovative therapies for diseases with high unmet medical needs [2] Transaction Details - The acquisition was finalized through a merger of Novartis's subsidiary with Tourmaline, resulting in the cancellation of shares not tendered in the offer, which were converted into the same cash consideration [3] - The tender offer expired on October 27, 2025, and all validly tendered shares were accepted for payment [2][3]

Financial Performance - Novartis Q3 2025 net sales reached USD 13909 million, a 7% increase in constant currencies compared to Q3 2024[19, 108] - Core operating income also grew by 7% in constant currencies, reaching USD 5460 million in Q3 2025[19, 108] - The core margin was 393% in Q3 2025[19, 108] - Free cash flow for 9M 2025 was USD 15941 million, a 26% increase compared to 9M 2024[108, 112] - The company reaffirms its 2025 full-year guidance, expecting high single-digit sales growth and low-teens core operating income growth in constant currencies[20, 119, 120] Key Products Growth - Kisqali experienced a 68% growth in constant currencies during Q3[25, 27] - Kesimpta sales increased by 44% in constant currencies in Q3[25, 40, 41] - Pluvicto sales grew by 45% in constant currencies in Q3[25, 47, 48] - Scemblix sales increased by 95% in constant currencies in Q3[25, 67, 68] - Leqvio sales grew +54% cc in Q3[60, 61] Pipeline and Innovation - Rhapsido received FDA approval for Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria (CSU)[22, 88] - Ianalumab showed positive Phase III results in Sjögren's Disease (SjD)[22, 93] - Pluvicto's PSMAddition trial demonstrated a 28% reduction in risk of progression or death in PSMA+ mHSPC patients[54, 59]

You've really been spoiling the markets over the last 10 quarters. You've always beat expectations and then subsequently you were able to raise your guidance. You beat this time around even though it was a very narrow beat, but you didn't quite manage to raise your guidance.Talk to us about what you saw this quarter and why you're a little more cautious than in previous quarters maybe. >> Well, I think this is the first time in many quarters where we've had some generic expiries hit us. you know when you ac ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up before the market opens, with Dow futures rising by 0.27%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.03%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.12% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.16%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.07%, France's CAC40 up by 0.14%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 up by 0.16% [2] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.24% to $60.55 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 1.17% to $64.14 per barrel [3] Key Market Events - President Trump is hosting a dinner in Tokyo with business leaders, including OpenAI and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, to celebrate Japan's significant investment in the US, amounting to $550 billion [4] - Japan's government has unveiled a $550 billion investment plan targeting sectors such as nuclear energy, AI, and semiconductors, which is expected to act as a major catalyst for the ongoing US stock market bull run [5] Company News - PayPal has signed an agreement with OpenAI to integrate its digital wallet into ChatGPT, allowing users to make payments directly through the AI tool. PayPal's Q3 revenue reached $8.417 billion, exceeding expectations [7] - NXP Semiconductors reported a 2% year-over-year decline in Q3 revenue to $3.17 billion but provided positive guidance for Q4, indicating a potential return to revenue growth [7] - Nomura's net profit fell by 6% in Q2, but strong performance in stock trading revenue is seen as a positive catalyst for the Japanese brokerage [8] - Novartis reported a 6% increase in operating profit for Q3, driven by new drug sales that offset the impact of the patent expiration of its heart drug Entresto [9] - Shengda Technology announced a core operating profit of $2.5 million for H1 2025, with its new energy vehicle insurance business growing by 111% [10] - UnitedHealth exceeded Q3 expectations and raised its full-year profit guidance, with a Q3 medical loss ratio of 89.9% [11] - Amazon plans to cut approximately 14,000 corporate jobs as part of its ongoing restructuring efforts influenced by AI advancements [12][13] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October, scheduled for release at 22:00 Beijing time [14] - API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending October 24 will be reported at 04:30 Beijing time [15]