Core Insights - All three major U.S. stock indices rose on July 17, 2025, driven by positive retail sales data and a decline in unemployment claims [1][2][11] - Better-than-expected earnings from major tech companies like Netflix contributed to investor confidence [2] - The current market environment suggests a favorable outlook for investing in U.S. stocks, particularly in low-leverage companies [3] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June 2025, following a 0.9% decline in May, exceeding market expectations [1][11] - Labor data indicated a decline in unemployment claims, further supporting market optimism [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Novartis (NVS), ResMed Inc. (RMD), Wabtec (WAB), Elbit Systems (ESLT), and Ingredion Inc. (INGR), all of which are characterized by low leverage and strong earnings growth [3][11] - Each of these stocks holds a Zacks Rank 2, indicating a favorable investment outlook [11] Stock Analysis - Novartis reported a 12% year-over-year increase in net sales and a 29% improvement in earnings per share for Q2 2025 [15][16] - ResMed anticipates an 8.1% year-over-year increase in fiscal fourth-quarter sales, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 15.3% [17][18] - Wabtec's sales are expected to grow by 5.3% year-over-year, supported by a long-term earnings growth rate of 16% [19][20] - Elbit Systems forecasts a 13.8% increase in 2025 sales, with a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 21.12% [21] - Ingredion expects a 1% improvement in 2025 sales, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 11% [22][23]

Financial Performance - Novartis shares experienced a decline of nearly 3% despite exceeding expectations for both top and bottom lines [1] - The company has raised its guidance for the 10th consecutive quarter, demonstrating strong sales and core operating income performance exceeding 20% [3] - Key growth drivers, including breast cancer drug Kisqali and prostate cancer drug, are performing above expectations [3] Market Dynamics & Strategy - The US policy environment is creating an overhang on the sector, impacting stock performance [2] - Novartis believes its build-up of U S inventories will help mitigate the impact of tariffs this year [1] - Cosentyx is still growing in the mid-single digits and on its way to becoming an $8 billion medicine [6] - The company aims to balance patient costs and affordability with investments in innovative medicines, especially considering competition from China [8] Leadership Transition - Harry Kirsch will step down as CFO after 13 years, which is considered normal for a company of Novartis's size [4][6]

Group 1 - The article promotes a weekly newsletter focused on stocks in the biotech, pharma, and healthcare industries, aimed at both novice and experienced investors [1] - The newsletter provides insights on key trends, catalysts, product sales forecasts, and integrated financial statements for major pharmaceutical companies [1] - The author, Edmund Ingham, has over five years of experience in the biotech sector and has compiled detailed reports on more than 1,000 companies [1]

Core Insights - Novartis AG reported better-than-expected Q2 2025 results, with core earnings of $2.42 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.38 and up from $1.97 a year ago, driven by strong sales growth [1][6] - Revenues reached $14.05 billion, a 12% increase from the previous year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.04 billion [1][6] Sales Performance - On a constant currency basis, sales increased by 11%, supported by strong performances from key drugs including Kisqali, Entresto, Kesimpta, Scemblix, Leqvio, and Pluvicto [2][6] - Entresto's sales rose 22% to $2.36 billion, driven by heart failure indications in the U.S. and Europe, and hypertension indications in China and Japan, beating estimates [5][6] - Kisqali's sales surged 64% to $1.2 billion, with strong growth in the U.S. due to recent launches [8] - Kesimpta sales totaled $1.1 billion, up 33%, driven by increased demand [9] - Cosentyx sales increased 6% to $1.6 billion but missed estimates, impacting investor sentiment [7][6] - Pluvicto sales reached $454 million, up 30%, following FDA approval for earlier use, significantly expanding the eligible patient population [12] - Leqvio sales soared 61% to $298 million, driven by steady demand growth [13] Financial Guidance and Strategic Moves - Novartis raised its 2025 core operating income growth outlook to low teens, reflecting strong product and pipeline performance [6][16] - The company initiated a $10 billion share buyback plan, expected to be completed by 2027 [17] - Novartis acquired Regulus Therapeutics Inc. for $0.8 billion, with potential additional payments based on regulatory milestones [21] Management Changes - CFO Harry Kirsch announced his retirement, with Mukul Mehta appointed as the new CFO, effective March 15, 2026 [18]

Core Insights - Novartis reported $14.05 billion in revenue for Q2 2025, a year-over-year increase of 9.2%, with an EPS of $2.42 compared to $1.97 a year ago, exceeding both revenue and EPS consensus estimates [1][3] Revenue Performance - Oncology revenue from Tasigna in the US was $162 million, significantly below the average estimate of $221.75 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 29.6% [4] - Net sales of Scemblix in the Rest of the World reached $107 million, surpassing the average estimate of $95.88 million [4] - Oncology revenue from Promacta/Revolade in the US was $227 million, below the average estimate of $285.63 million, marking a year-over-year decline of 19.8% [4] - Immunology revenue from Cosentyx in the US was $921 million, slightly below the average estimate of $993.18 million, but showing a year-over-year increase of 6.1% [4] - Total revenue from Tafinlar + Mekinist in Oncology was $573 million, slightly above the average estimate of $570.15 million, with a year-over-year increase of 9.6% [4] - Kisqali in Oncology generated $1.18 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $1.09 billion, with a substantial year-over-year increase of 64.2% [4] - Total revenue from Cosentyx in Immunology was $1.63 billion, below the average estimate of $1.73 billion, but reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.8% [4] - Cardiovascular revenue from Entresto totaled $2.36 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $2.34 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 24.2% [4] - Established Brands revenue from Galvus Group was $123 million, below the average estimate of $131 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 18% [4] - Established Brands revenue from Exforge Group was $191 million, exceeding the average estimate of $172.31 million, with a year-over-year increase of 7.3% [4] - Kymriah in Established Brands generated $99 million, closely matching the average estimate of $99.32 million, with a year-over-year decline of 12.4% [4] Stock Performance - Novartis shares returned +2.1% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.2% change, with a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) indicating potential for near-term outperformance [3]

Core Insights - Novartis anticipates Kisqali to become a blockbuster drug, shifting focus from Entresto [1] - Kisqali sales increased by 64% globally in Q2, with 100% growth in the U.S. [1] - The company reported a 56% increase in Kisqali sales in Q1 [2] Industry Trends - Global breast cancer diagnoses and deaths are expected to rise significantly by 2050, with 1 in 20 women projected to be diagnosed [2] - This could lead to 3.2 million new cases and 1.1 million deaths annually by 2050, compared to 2.3 million new cases and 670,000 deaths in 2022 [3] Company Pipeline - Novartis has a strong pipeline with other potential blockbusters like Pluvicto for prostate cancer and Scemblix for chronic myeloid leukemia [3] - The company is focused on driving performance for Kisqali, Pluvicto, and Scemblix, indicating a strategy to replace reliance on older therapies [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Novartis reported an 11% increase in sales in constant currency for Q2 2025, with core operating income rising by 21% [5][43] - Core margin improved to 42.2%, reflecting a 340 basis point increase, and core EPS was $2.42, up 24% [43] - Free cash flow reached $6.3 billion, a 37% increase, while for the first half of the year, sales grew by 13% and core operating income by 24% [43][44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Priority brands saw robust growth, with sales up 30% in constant currencies, and excluding Entresto, the portfolio grew by 33% [7] - Kisqali grew by 64% in Q2, achieving TRx leadership in metastatic breast cancer, with a 100% increase in the US [8][9] - Semblix experienced 79% growth, and Lexio grew by 61%, both on track to exceed $1 billion in sales [19][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the US, Kisqali's NBRx share reached 61% in early breast cancer, while outside the US, it grew by 25% [9][10] - Cosentyx growth moderated to 6% in Q2, impacted by higher rebates and competitive pressures, particularly in China [25][27] - The company anticipates continued growth in China, albeit at a lower rate than the previous year, due to tightened healthcare spending [69] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Novartis is focused on maintaining strong growth momentum through key launches and pipeline advancements, with an emphasis on innovative therapies [57] - The company announced a new $10 billion share buyback program, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth outlook [45][58] - Ongoing investments in R&D and strategic acquisitions, such as Regulus Therapeutics, are aimed at strengthening the renal pipeline [46] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in mid- to long-term growth despite current market challenges, including pricing pressures and competition [57][76] - The company is actively engaging with the US administration regarding drug pricing policies, aiming to balance innovation rewards with patient access [76] - Novartis expects to maintain mid-single-digit growth for Cosentyx, factoring in potential impacts from the Inflation Reduction Act [92] Other Important Information - The company is preparing for the potential entry of generics for Entresto in mid-2025, which is included in financial forecasts [48][49] - Management highlighted the importance of educating policymakers about the US drug pricing system and its effectiveness in promoting innovation [76] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Sjogren's Phase III data confidence - Management acknowledged the challenges in demonstrating statistically significant benefits in Sjogren's but remains optimistic based on strong Phase II data [63] Question: Impact of healthcare spending tightening in China - Management noted a slowdown in growth in China but expects to stabilize and maintain high single-digit to low teens growth moving forward [69] Question: Competitive environment for Cosentyx - Management indicated that while there is an initial impact from new competitors, the market typically stabilizes, and they remain confident in Cosentyx's long-term potential [85] Question: Direct negotiation impacts from the IRA - Management confirmed that the IRA has been factored into guidance, estimating that about 30% of Cosentyx sales are exposed to Medicare pricing [91]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Novartis reported an 11% increase in sales in constant currency for Q2 2025, with core operating income rising by 21% [5][44] - Core margin improved to 42.2%, reflecting a 340 basis point increase, and core EPS was $2.42, up 24% [44] - Free cash flow reached $6.3 billion, a 37% increase, while for the first half of the year, sales grew by 13% and core operating income by 24% [44][45] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Priority brands saw a 30% increase in sales in constant currencies, with notable growth from Kisqali (up 64%), Kisimta (up 33%), and Pluvicto (up 30%) [7][8][14] - Kisqali achieved TRx leadership in metastatic breast cancer, with a 100% increase in the US for Q2 [8][9] - Lexio grew by 61% in the quarter, with a 47% increase in the US, and Semblix saw a 79% growth [18][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the US, Kisqali's NBRx share reached 61% in early breast cancer, while outside the US, it grew by 25% [9] - Cosentyx growth moderated to 6% in Q2, impacted by higher rebates and competitive pressures, particularly in China [24][26] - The company expects continued growth in China, albeit at a lower rate than the previous year, due to tightened healthcare spending [68] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Novartis is focused on maintaining strong growth momentum through key launches and pipeline advancements, including the acquisition of Regulus Therapeutics to enhance its renal portfolio [46][57] - The company has initiated a new $10 billion share buyback program, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth outlook [46][57] - Novartis aims to expand the use of B cell therapies and strengthen its position in the market, particularly for Kisqali and Kisimta [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the mid to long-term growth outlook, despite facing challenges such as potential generic competition for Entresto [57][49] - The company anticipates a strong performance in Q3 based on continued momentum in priority brands, while Q4 may see a step down in growth due to the full impact of potential generics [52][53] - Management acknowledged the ongoing discussions with the administration regarding drug pricing and emphasized the importance of maintaining US leadership in biopharmaceutical innovation [76] Other Important Information - Novartis is advancing its pipeline with significant readouts expected, including for Plavicto and remibrutinib [57] - The company is committed to a balanced capital allocation strategy, including dividends and share buybacks, while continuing to invest in R&D [46][57] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Sjogren's Phase III data confidence - Management acknowledged the excitement around Sjogren's but noted the risks involved, emphasizing the importance of robust data from both studies for the filing process [62] Question: Impact of healthcare spending tightening in China on Cosentyx - Management confirmed a notable slowdown in China, with expectations of high single-digit to low teens growth moving forward, while acknowledging the impact on the broader portfolio [68] Question: Competitive environment for Cosentyx - Management indicated that while there is an initial impact from new competitors, the market typically stabilizes, and they remain confident in Cosentyx's long-term growth potential [84] Question: Direct negotiation impacts from IRA on Cosentyx - Management confirmed that the IRA has been factored into guidance, estimating that about 30% of Cosentyx sales are exposed to Medicare pricing, which is manageable [90] Question: Performance expectations for ramibutinib in food allergy - Management expressed confidence in the compelling data for ramibutinib compared to existing treatments and highlighted the potential for a significant commercial launch [104]

Q2 2025 Financial Performance - Novartis delivered double-digit sales growth and core margin expansion in Q2 2025 [134] - Q2 sales reached USD 141 billion, an increase of 11% in constant currencies (cc) compared to Q2 2024 [14] - Core operating income for Q2 2025 was USD 59 billion, a 21% increase in constant currencies (cc) compared to Q2 2024 [14] - Core margin improved to 422%, a 340 basis points increase [14] - Free cash flow for H1 2025 increased by 46% to USD 97 billion [104] FY 2025 Guidance and Capital Allocation - FY 2025 core operating income guidance upgraded to low-teens growth from low double-digit [15] - A new share buyback program of up to USD 10 billion was initiated, to be completed by the end of 2027 [108] - The company assumes Entresto US generic entry in mid-2025 for forecasting purposes [112] Key Products Performance - Kisqali grew by 64% cc in Q2, achieving TRx leadership in mBC [23] - Kesimpta grew by 33% cc in Q2, driven by strong demand growth [31] - Pluvicto grew by 30% cc in Q2, with promising uptake since pre-taxane indication approval in the US [36] - Leqvio grew by 61% cc in Q2, on track for blockbuster status in 2025 [45] - Scemblix grew by 79% cc in Q2, with strong momentum in early lines and global leadership in 3L+ CML [52]

④【AMD将重启对华出口AI芯片】7月17日，据央视新闻援引多家外媒报道，美芯片公司AMD称，将 很快恢复向中国市场交付其人工智能芯片MI308。此前，美国对英伟达一款芯片作出了类似决定。报道 称，AMD发言人7月15日表示，美国商务部告知该公司，MI308产品的许可申请将进入审查程序。美国 芯片行业近期集体呼吁美国政府放宽出口管制，并警告称对华限制将导致收入受损。今年4月，AMD 称，针对MI308芯片的出口限制将使该公司损失约8亿美元。截至发稿，AMD涨0.5%，英伟达涨0.7%。 ⑤【阿斯麦盘前跌近3%，Q2业绩超预期但下调业绩指引】阿斯麦盘前跌近3%。消息面上，阿斯麦2025 年第二季度交出了一份全面超预期的答卷。当季净订单达55亿欧元，环比大增41%，同比持平，显著高 于市场共识。但该公司同时下调了第三季度业绩指引，预计第三季度营业收入为74亿至79亿欧元，市场 预期值为82.6亿欧元。此外，阿斯麦还下调了2025财年业绩指引，预计2025财年的营业收入为325亿欧 元，市场预期为373.9亿欧元。 ①【三大期指涨跌互现】截至发稿，道指期货跌0.12%、标普500指数期货涨0.06%、纳指期货涨 0 ...