中金发布研报称，维持泡泡玛特(09992)25/26年经调整净利润预测110/141亿元，当前对应25/26年35/27 倍经调PE。维持跑赢行业评级，维持目标价370港币，对应25/26年42/32倍经调PE，有20%上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 1、品类扩张、新品打造能力提升，提升IP势能、延展IP边界 公司近年来产品上新速度、热销产品打造频率逐步提升，在此背后是公司更为成熟与严密的产品上新规 划，同时艺术家、公司产品团队的能力以及双方配合默契度亦在持续进步;不断提升的产品能力给予公 司对于IP更强的表达能力，即通过不同材质、工艺、系列衍生品等使得IP形象与内涵更为完善，同时对 SKU数进行动态平衡。品类方面，毛绒品类持续赋能更多IP、在海外新市场有较强拉新效果，饰品、甜 品、服装、积木亦稳步推进，后续亦将尝试小家电等品类以延展IP边界与消费场景，该行认为公司对新 品类积极尝试、及时调整的经营理念是IP沉淀与中长期成长的有力支撑。 2、持续理解市场需求，产能储备、柔性化能力提升 据业绩会，公司现有毛绒产能相较年初已增加10倍左右，达每月3000万件，持续对市场需求进行理解与 追赶——8月28日发售的mi ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持泡泡玛特(09992)25/26年经调整净利润预测110/141亿元，当 前对应25/26年35/27倍经调PE。维持跑赢行业评级，维持目标价370港币，对应25/26年42/32倍经调PE， 有20%上行空间。 2、持续理解市场需求，产能储备、柔性化能力提升 据业绩会，公司现有毛绒产能相较年初已增加10倍左右，达每月3000万件，持续对市场需求进行理解与 追赶——8月28日发售的mini LABUBU"心底密码"系列毛绒挂件再度引起粉丝热情，虽仍在短时间内售 罄，但消费者整体购买体验有明显优化;展望后续，伴随对更多区域市场需求的理解更加深入，叠加产 能及供应链安排优化带来的供应链柔性，该行认为公司对需求与供给的匹配能力与精准度将进一步提 升。 3、海外市场快速成长，运营仍有待细化之处，长期空间仍广 目前泡泡海外市场热度持续向好，泰国ICONSIAM旗舰店在8月初开业后店效出色，对其他门店亦并无 虹吸效应，美国快速开店但需求增长更快，带来线上占比持续提升。而相比国内，海外门店模型、线上 官网、会员体系等运营细节均有待细化之处，该行认为公司的零售基因与能力有望支撑近两年快 ...

Core Insights - The launch of the mini version of LABUBU by Pop Mart has generated significant consumer interest, with over 200 million viewers on Tmall's live stream and rapid sell-out across platforms within minutes of release [1][2] - The mini LABUBU's design appeals to consumers for its portability and versatility, allowing it to be used as a fashion accessory, which enhances its desirability [3][10] - The secondary market has seen a dramatic price increase for hidden versions of LABUBU, with prices soaring up to 14 times the original price, indicating strong demand and speculative trading [3][9] Sales Performance - The mini LABUBU sold over 21,000 units within the first two days of launch, with 82,000 users expressing interest in purchasing [2] - The initial price for the mini LABUBU was set at 79 yuan per unit, with a complete box priced at 1106 yuan [2] - On the resale market, hidden versions are priced between 679.5 yuan and 1188 yuan, while regular versions are being sold for around 300 yuan [3] Market Strategy - The introduction of the mini LABUBU is part of Pop Mart's strategy to capitalize on the popularity of existing IPs and to maintain consumer engagement during periods of lower product novelty [10] - The company aims to enhance the narrative depth of its IPs, as LABUBU is seen as a globally recognized phenomenon but lacks a deeper story compared to other IPs [10] - Pop Mart's CEO expressed confidence in the long-term commercial potential of LABUBU as a world-class IP, suggesting that the brand's value is just beginning to be realized [10] Production Challenges - The surge in demand for LABUBU has posed production challenges for Pop Mart, with current monthly production capacity reaching 30 million units, ten times that of the previous year [10] - The company is currently in a phase of "catching up" with production to meet the heightened consumer demand [10]

Core Insights - The company reported a remarkable revenue increase of 204.4% in the first half of 2025, reaching 13.88 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit soaring by 362.8% to 4.71 billion RMB [1][4][27] Group 1: Business Philosophy and Strategy - The founder's "slow company" philosophy emphasizes building a strong foundation over rapid growth, which has proven effective through strategic decisions made over the past decade [2][25] - The company adopts a "seven-point-full" operating philosophy, maintaining a balance between supply and demand, ensuring product scarcity to enhance value [6][18] - The long-term perspective is crucial, with a focus on gradual growth and optimization over a decade rather than seeking quick results [6][25] Group 2: Market Performance and Growth - The Americas market experienced an astonishing growth rate of 1142.3%, while Europe also saw triple-digit growth [4][19] - The company operates 571 direct-operated stores globally, allowing for direct consumer engagement and rapid market response [5][20] Group 3: Product and IP Strategy - The company has developed a comprehensive IP discovery and incubation system, akin to a record label, categorizing IPs into different levels for resource allocation [9][10] - The plush toy category emerged as the top revenue generator, with a 1276.2% increase, reflecting the company's strategic focus on core categories [13][26] Group 4: Supply Chain and Production - A robust supply chain supports the explosive growth, with production capacity increased over tenfold through lean manufacturing and automation [16][17] - The establishment of an overseas production base in Vietnam has significantly reduced costs and improved operational efficiency [16][17] Group 5: Globalization Strategy - The company's globalization strategy involves targeting major cities first, establishing brand influence in competitive markets [19][23] - The DTC model is replicated globally, ensuring a deep understanding of local consumer preferences through a localized team structure [20][23] Group 6: Emotional and Cultural Connection - The company emphasizes "retail entertainment," creating emotional connections with consumers beyond mere product sales [18][26] - The positioning as an "art company" using commercial means for promotion highlights the focus on emotional engagement rather than just product functionality [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by its IP matrix and overseas market expansion [3][4][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 13.88 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [3]. - Adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company reached 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 33.9%, an increase of 11.6 percentage points [3]. - The company’s revenue from overseas markets was 5.59 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 439.6%, accounting for 40.3% of total revenue [4]. Product and IP Development - The company launched nearly 20 plush toy products centered around 10 core IPs in the first half of 2025, with several IPs generating over 1 billion yuan in revenue [3]. - The performance of licensed IPs was notable, with sales reaching 1.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119% [3]. Market Expansion - The Americas market saw a staggering growth of 1,977.4% in e-commerce channels, contributing to a revenue of 2.26 billion yuan, up 1,142% year-on-year [4]. - The Asia-Pacific market also showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 258% to 2.85 billion yuan, supported by an increase in retail store numbers [4]. Production Capacity - The company’s monthly production capacity for plush toys is approximately 30 million units, over ten times that of the previous year, indicating a strong potential for future growth [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to continue its global expansion and IP ecosystem development, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.13 billion yuan, 15.61 billion yuan, and 19.74 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting significant growth potential [6].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09992 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 500,00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating robust operational capabilities and successful IP management [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company reached 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit margin was 33.9%, an increase of 11.6 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding performance forecasts [1] IP Development and Sales - The company launched nearly 20 plush toy products centered around 10 core IPs, contributing to strong sales across various IPs [1] - 13 artist IPs generated over 1 billion yuan in revenue, with notable contributions from THE MONSTERS (4.81 billion yuan), MOLLY (1.36 billion yuan), and others [1] - Licensed IP sales reached 1.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119% [2] Market Performance - The overseas market generated revenue of 5.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 439.6%, accounting for 40.3% of total revenue [2] - The Americas saw a significant revenue increase of 1,142% to 2.26 billion yuan, driven by e-commerce growth [2] - The Asia-Pacific market's revenue grew by 258% to 2.85 billion yuan, supported by an increase in retail locations [2] - Domestic revenue rose by 135% to 8.28 billion yuan, with online sales growing by 212% [2] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company has a monthly production capacity of approximately 30 million units, over ten times that of the previous year, but is still in a "capacity expansion phase" [3] - New materials, processes, and standards are expected to enhance production efficiency and support long-term growth [3] - The company is diversifying its business model with new formats such as parks and pop-up stores, indicating potential for further IP development [3] Investment Recommendations - The strong performance in the first half of 2025 supports the long-term potential of global expansion and IP ecosystem synergy [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward, with expected net profits of 11.133 billion, 15.609 billion, and 19.737 billion yuan respectively [3] - A target price of 381.56 HKD has been set, maintaining a "strong buy" rating based on a 42x PE ratio for 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, driven by successful global expansion and improved operational capabilities, leading to a "buy" rating for the stock [1] Revenue Growth - The company anticipates continued revenue growth in both domestic and international markets, with specific growth rates projected for offline and online channels in China and overseas [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, overseas revenue reached 5.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 439.6%, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe regions [2] - Domestic revenue for the same period was 8.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 135.2%, with online sales showing particularly strong performance [3] Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin is expected to improve due to higher pricing in overseas markets and economies of scale, with specific gross margin projections for different channels [1][4] - In the first half of 2025, the gross margin increased by 6.3 percentage points to 70.3%, driven by better pricing strategies and cost management [3] Product Diversification - The company has successfully diversified its IP matrix, with plush products becoming the largest revenue contributor, indicating reduced reliance on a single IP [3] - The first half of 2025 saw plush product revenue increase by 1,276.2% year-on-year, surpassing other categories [3] Supply Chain and Capacity - The company is enhancing its supply chain through lean production and automation, increasing monthly production capacity for plush products to 30 million units [4] - Plans are in place to establish six major production bases globally to improve supply chain flexibility and responsiveness [4] Market Expansion - The company is in a rapid expansion phase for overseas stores, with plans to exceed 200 locations by the end of the year, targeting emerging markets [4] - Strong product innovation capabilities are expected to continue enriching the IP matrix and driving revenue growth [4]

Core Insights - The recent launch of the "Mini LABUBU" and "ROCK THE UNIVERSE" plush toys by Pop Mart sold out quickly across various online platforms, indicating strong demand [1][3] - The "Mini LABUBU" series consists of 14 regular and 1 hidden variant, with prices set at 79 yuan each, while the "ROCK THE UNIVERSE" plush is priced at 499 yuan [3] - The secondary market for "Mini LABUBU" items shows significant price fluctuations, with pre-sale prices ranging from 170 to 300 yuan, and current prices around 100 yuan for regular variants and 700 yuan for hidden variants [3][5] Sales Performance - Pop Mart's sales performance has been robust, with the company reporting a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [8] - The "THE MONSTERS" series, which includes LABUBU, generated 4.81 billion yuan in revenue, marking a staggering year-on-year increase of 668.0% and accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [8] Market Dynamics - The supply of "Mini LABUBU" during its initial release was significantly higher than previous launches, with over 300,000 units sold on Tmall alone, which may have influenced the pricing dynamics in the secondary market [8] - The trading patterns on secondary platforms indicate a mix of "proxy buying" and "box gifting," showcasing the collectible nature of these items [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 138.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 204.4%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 47.1 billion yuan, up 362.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 33.9%, an increase of 11.6 percentage points [1]. - The company has demonstrated strong performance in its diversified IP matrix and significant growth potential in overseas markets, with overseas revenue reaching 55.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 439.6%, accounting for 40.3% of total revenue [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 32,399 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 148.5% [3]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 11,133 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 256.2% [3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 8.29 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.7 [3][9]. - **Market Capitalization**: The total market capitalization is reported at 435.65 billion yuan [4]. Market Expansion and IP Development - The company has successfully launched nearly 20 plush toy products around 10 core IPs in the first half of 2025, with several IPs generating over 1 billion yuan in revenue [7]. - The overseas market has shown remarkable growth, particularly in the Americas, where revenue increased by 1142% to 22.6 billion yuan, driven by e-commerce and retail expansion [7]. - The company has also enhanced its local operations in the Asia-Pacific region, increasing retail store numbers significantly, which contributed to a revenue increase of 258% to 28.5 billion yuan [7]. Production Capacity and Long-term Growth - The company has significantly increased its production capacity, with a monthly output of approximately 30 million plush toys, which is over ten times that of the previous year [7]. - The report suggests that ongoing investments in new materials and manufacturing processes will further optimize production efficiency and support long-term growth [7].