Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Pop Mart's latest business performance shows a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 245% to 250%, with quarterly growth further accelerating [1] - Revenue growth in the Chinese market is reported at 185% to 190%, while overseas market revenue growth stands at 365% to 370%, both exceeding expectations from the bank and the market [1] - The primary drivers for this growth are attributed to the introduction of new products in the leading series and accelerated growth in the European and American markets, alongside a faster release of production capacity [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that due to the accelerated release of production capacity and the upcoming overseas peak season, the adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 20% and 21% to 13.2 billion and 17 billion respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to adjusted price-to-earnings ratios of 23 and 18 for 2025 and 2026 [1] - The bank maintains an "outperform" rating for the company, with a target price set at 370 HKD, reflecting adjusted price-to-earnings ratios of 35 and 27 for 2025 and 2026 [1]

每经AI快讯，10月23日，泡泡玛特股价跌幅扩大至10%，为4月份以来最大单日跌幅。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

泡泡玛特股价跌幅扩大至10%，为4月份以来最大。 来源：滚动播报 ...

计及第三季业绩后，大摩上调盈测，预计2025至2027年各年净利润按年分别升291%、25%及21%，收入 预测上调5%至8%至增长190%、26%及20%，经调整净利润率预测达到32.4%、32.1%及32.1%，目标价 维持为382港元不变，评级"增持"。 摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，泡泡玛特第三季销售增长245%至250%，远超该行预测的180%，较第二季 的增长约235%进一步加快。按地区划分，期内大中华区增长185%至190%，海外增长365%至370%，当 中亚太区增长170%至175%，美洲增长1265%至1270%，欧洲增长735%至740%，所有市场的增长均较预 期快。 ...

每经AI快讯，10月23日，泡泡玛特港股一度跌9.1%。 ...

每经AI快讯，10月23日，港股泡泡玛特跌幅扩大至7%，报239.2港元，总市值3207亿港元。今年以来累 计涨幅达167%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound trading, with notable buying activity in specific stocks such as Pop Mart and Xiaomi, while other stocks like Alibaba faced substantial net selling [2][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Pop Mart (09992) received a net inflow of HKD 11.2 billion, with a projected revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, driven by strong domestic and international sales [6]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net inflow of HKD 4.81 billion, following a share buyback of 10.7 million shares at prices between HKD 45.9 and HKD 46.76, totaling approximately HKD 4.94 billion [6]. - Semiconductor stocks, including Huahong Semiconductor (01347) and SMIC (00981), attracted net inflows of HKD 4.41 billion and HKD 1.28 billion, respectively, amid positive sentiment regarding the semiconductor industry's growth driven by AI [6]. Group 2: Company Earnings and Projections - China Mobile (00941) reported Q3 service revenue of HKD 216.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with EBITDA declining by 1.7% to HKD 79.4 billion, slightly below market expectations [7]. - China Life (02628) projected a net profit of approximately HKD 156.79 billion to HKD 177.69 billion for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50% to 70% [7]. - The report indicated that the net profit for Q3 could grow by 75% to 106% year-on-year, driven by improved investment returns and optimized asset allocation [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The overall market sentiment showed a divergence in fund flows, with significant net selling in stocks like Alibaba (09988) and Tencent (00700), indicating cautious investor sentiment amid global economic uncertainties [8]. - The report highlighted that the current market volatility is influenced more by emotional factors rather than fundamental reversals, suggesting a need for careful timing in investment strategies [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to show strong growth in Q3 2025, with significant increases in revenue and adjusted net profit driven by new product launches and continuous channel growth [1][2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company anticipates a revenue growth of 154.2% year-on-year, reaching approximately 9.17 billion yuan, and an adjusted net profit growth of 198.6%, amounting to about 3.03 billion yuan [1] - The adjusted profit margin is projected to be 33% [1] Product Development - In Q3 2025, the company plans to launch 31 new series of blind box figures and plush products, with a slight decrease in new series compared to the previous quarter but maintaining year-on-year levels [1] - Popular new products include various themed series that sold out on their launch day [1] Retail Expansion - As of the end of August, the company had 513 retail stores in mainland China, a 6.4% increase year-on-year, and 1,837 robot stores [1] - The average revenue per store increased by 57% to 2.48 million yuan for the July-August period [1] Online Sales Performance - The company's official Douyin flagship store achieved a GMV of 1.31 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 302.2%, with sales volume reaching 9.49 million, up 677.9% [2] - The Tmall flagship store generated revenue of 251 million yuan, a 73.1% increase year-on-year, while JD.com saw a revenue increase of 99.6% for the same period [2] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected adjusted net profits of 10.96 billion, 14.92 billion, and 18.31 billion yuan respectively [2] - The adjusted PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 32.3x, 23.8x, and 19.4x [2]

（来源：君实财经） 泡泡玛特公布Q3运营情况，重申看好公司观点【东吴传媒互联网张良卫团队】 来源：市场资讯 事件：公司2025年Q3收入（未经审核）同比增长 245%-250%，高于市场预期。其中： 中国收益同比增长185%-190%，线下渠道同比增长130%-135%，在线渠道同比增长300%-305% 海外收益同比增长365%-370%，其中亚太同比增长170%-175%，美洲同比增长1265%-1270%，欧洲及其 他地区同比增长735%-740%。 公司Q3基本面继续强劲，当前时点我们重申看好观点： 一方面，labubu的商业价值曲线并不等同于其热度曲线，优质的形象型IP生命周期也比市场想的更加长 青。回顾泡泡玛特重要IP发展趋势，我们发现除了少数特殊年份以外，这些IP收入基本都实现年同比持 续增长，其中MOLLY已经面世接近20年，是泡泡玛特最早挖掘的艺术家IP，2019-2023年收入CAGR仍 有22%。类似的趋势在日本三丽鸥公司头部IP上也能看到。背后体现的是优秀IP企业的长线运营能力。 另一方面，在labubu打开公司在全球化市场知名度之后，多元的IP矩阵将是公司拓展海外不同文化偏好 市场的 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 消费 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 10 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 250.40 | 港元 | 401.60↑ | +60.4% | | | 泡泡玛特 (9992 HK) | | | | | | | 增长动能持续强化，上调盈利预测和目标价，重申买入 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 10/24 2/25 6/25 10/25 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% 9992 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 335.40 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 63.45 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 333,039.51 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 38.05 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 179.31 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 246.45 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 肖凯 ...