12月8日，港股市场的"潮玩明星"泡泡玛特遭遇重挫，股价大幅低开低走。截至12月8日收盘，其股价暴 跌8.49%，报收于200.4港元/股；12月9日，公司股价进一步下跌5.04%至190.3港元/股，距今年8月创下 的历史高点（339.8港元/股）累计跌幅已超过43%。 （资料来源：wind资 讯） 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：新消费主张/cici 泡泡玛特当前的股价颓势与其亮眼的业绩表现形成了鲜明反差。就在不久前，公司发布的2025年第三季 度未经审核业务状况显示，其整体收益同比激增245%至250%，其中海外市场收益增幅更高达365%至 370%，呈现爆发式增长。 然而，这份"成绩单"并未能提振市场信心。相反，股价在业绩发布前后便持续下挫。这种背离的核心原 因在于，敏锐的资本市场关注的不是过去的爆发，而是未来的动能。市场担忧，驱动此次惊人增长的核 心引擎——现象级IP"Labubu"的热度可能已达顶峰，公司正站在增长曲线关键的"拐点"之上。 核心爆款IP Labubu市场溢价持续消退、常规款甚至跌破原价 Labubu，这只 ...

信达证券消费团队分析指出，客观数据显示，泡泡玛特感恩节周度销售数据环比无明显增长，呈现"旺 季不旺"的特征。值得注意的是，海外市场自11月中旬起已缓解产能压力，供应链保障充足，但充足的 供应未能有效刺激需求端显著爆发，短期经营数据表现确实不及市场预期。 极目新闻记者 黄永进 实习生 曹亚丹 李秉坤 12月8日，泡泡玛特开盘闪崩，暴跌近10%，创近8个交易日以来新低，股价较8月高位以来跌超41%， 市值蒸发超1872亿港元。 市场人士指出，投资者担忧其在美国"黑五"促销期间的销售表现可能不及预期。 据了解，此前11月13日晚，公司核心IP Labubu新品上市，但市场热度显著不及以往，二级市场溢价空 间大幅回落。其中，该系列隐藏款的溢价幅度缩水超50%，3.0及4.0版本的常规款在二手交易平台的售 价更是直接跌破官方零售价。 此前泡泡玛特披露的三季度数据显示，美国地区销售额同比暴增逾1200%，亮眼表现曾提高市场信心， 但后续增长动能能否持续引发疑虑。晨星分析师表示："美国销售可能走弱，会打击市场对泡泡玛特增 长前景的信心。" 摩根士丹利近期报告指出，泡泡玛特正在从过去两年的"爆发式增长"阶段，逐步过渡至未来的 ...

在IP价值日益成为文化消费核心驱动力的今天，传统的宏大叙事型IP构建模式正面临新的挑战。泡泡玛 特以其独特的商业实践，开辟了一条截然不同的路径：它摒弃了复杂的故事背景与明确的价值观灌输， 转而专注于打造"无剧情"的形象IP。这一策略将IP从单向的故事载体，转化为一张可供用户肆意投射情 感与想象的面布，从而在当下这个追求即时情绪共鸣与个性化表达的时代，构建起了一种全新的情感连 接与商业生态。 目前泡泡玛特的IP更多的是形象IP 在接受央视新闻专访时，王宁曾表示："故事确实很重要，可以帮助你快速认识角色，但并不是必须有 故事，IP才能成功。当信息变得更丰富以及用户的时间变得更碎片化后，IP诞生的方式也会不一样。我 们也在思考用更多的方式，丰富现有IP的世界观。" 从实际看，泡泡玛特采用的也确实是一种与传统内容IP完全不同的策略——形象IP，或者说是"轻IP"模 式。与传统迪士尼通过宏大叙事和漫长周期塑造IP的方式不同，泡泡玛特的IP不需要厚重故事支撑。 LABUBU几乎没有预设的剧本，仅凭其"怪萌"的九颗尖牙和叛逆邪笑，就构建了巨大的情感留白空间。 而传统故事IP中，故事是驱动一切的发动机。不论是开始的电影票房， ...

德银最新研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特将Labubu产能从上半年的1000万只大幅提升至年底月 均5000万只。该行警示，对于依赖独特设计与稀缺性驱动的潮流玩具品牌而言，大规模量产往往是热度 消退的前兆。 在前一日大跌8.49%后，12月9日，港股泡泡玛特股价继续下挫。截至发稿前公司股价下跌4.94%，与8 月高点相比跌约44%，市值蒸发超2000亿港元（约合人民币超1800亿元）。 每日经济新闻综合公开信息 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 ...

在前一日大跌8.49%后，12月9日，港股泡泡玛特股价继续下挫。截至发稿前公司股价下跌4.94%，与8 月高点相比跌约44%，市值蒸发超2000亿港元（约合人民币超1800亿元）。 德银最新研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特将Labubu产能从上半年的1000万只大幅提升至年底月 均5000万只。该行警示，对于依赖独特设计与稀缺性驱动的潮流玩具品牌而言，大规模量产往往是热度 消退的前兆。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

金吾财讯 | 泡泡玛特(09992)股价延续跌势，截至发稿，跌3.24%，报193.9港元，成交额13.42亿港元。 大摩预计，Labubu今年的销售额将达到155亿元人民币，较2023年增长41倍，但估计增长速度明年放 缓，主要因部分消费者的流失。鉴于较低的广告与推销费用比率、较低的降价幅度、较高比例的线上直 销及较低的租金比率，大摩认为，泡泡玛特能够维持约30%的净利润率增长。 金吾财讯 | 泡泡玛特(09992)股价延续跌势，截至发稿，跌3.24%，报193.9港元，成交额13.42亿港元。 大摩预计，Labubu今年的销售额将达到155亿元人民币，较2023年增长41倍，但估计增长速度明年放 缓，主要因部分消费者的流失。鉴于较低的广告与推销费用比率、较低的降价幅度、较高比例的线上直 销及较低的租金比率，大摩认为，泡泡玛特能够维持约30%的净利润率增长。 德银最新研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特将Labubu产能从上半年的1000万只大幅提升至年底月 均5000万只。该行警示，对于依赖独特设计与稀缺性驱动的潮流玩具品牌而言，大规模量产往往是热度 消退的前兆。 德银最新研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's new consumption concept is experiencing a decline in the afternoon session [1] - Pop Mart has dropped nearly 5%, indicating a significant downturn in its stock performance [1] - Other companies such as Blukoo, Cha Bai Dao, and Lao Pu Gold are also seeing declines alongside Pop Mart [1]

Group 1 - The new consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market are experiencing a continued downturn, with significant declines observed in various companies [2] - Pop Mart has seen a drop of over 5%, while Brucan has decreased by 4.3% [2] - Other companies such as Guoquan, Xiaomi Group, and Laopu Gold have also reported declines exceeding 3%, with Cha Baidao down by 2.8% [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.84% to 25,549.90 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.32%, and the National Enterprises Index decreasing by 1.12% [1][8]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks saw a broad decline, with notable drops including Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Baidu, each falling over 2%, while Meituan and NetEase dropped more than 1% [1][8]. - Gold and non-ferrous metal stocks faced pressure, with Zijin Mining declining over 4% [1][8]. - The real estate sector weakened significantly, highlighted by China Jinmao's drop of over 11% [1][8]. - New consumption concept stocks continued their downward trend, with Pop Mart falling over 4% [1][8]. Economic Indicators - Market expectations indicate potential adjustments in interest rate policies by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, with hawkish comments from ECB Executive Schnabel influencing market sentiment towards anticipated rate hikes next year [2][9]. - Analysts noted that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts, but there are indications that the threshold for further cuts may be raised [2][9]. Investment Insights - Morgan Stanley suggests a selective investment strategy, highlighting a clear risk differentiation in China's credit market: the TMT sector shows strong quality, while state-owned enterprises are stable but have tight valuations, and the real estate sector remains challenging [5][11]. - The real estate market is not expected to stabilize until 2025, with ongoing declines in sales and investment [5][11]. - Vanke's efforts to extend domestic bond maturities have led to significant drops in both offshore and onshore bond prices, raising concerns about the financing environment for private developers [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in short-selling funds against Pop Mart has led to a significant decline in its stock price, with the short-selling activity reaching a one-year high since September [1][4]. Group 1: Short-Selling Activity - The cumulative funds for short-selling Pop Mart have reached a new high over the past year, contributing to the continuous decline in its stock price [1]. - An increasing number of foreign institutions have published bearish views on Pop Mart, echoing concerns similar to those seen during the AI bubble, indicating a lack of immediate evidence to confirm or refute these views [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Performance - The stock price of Pop Mart is expected to remain stagnant in the short term due to the absence of strong data supporting either bullish or bearish positions, leading to a stalemate [4]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of high growth driven by the Labubu product, with fears of a high base effect impacting future performance [6][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ideal time for bottom-fishing in Pop Mart would be when the premium expectations for Labubu diminish and market hopes for new hit products are low [5]. - Pop Mart is currently positioned between the expansion and peak phases of its product cycle, with market fears that it may soon transition into a downturn phase if new hit products are not developed [8][10].