Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 319.85 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has conducted two share buybacks, demonstrating confidence in its long-term growth logic. The buybacks occurred on January 19 and 21, 2026, costing HKD 251 million and HKD 96 million, respectively, for 140,000 and 50,000 shares at average prices of HKD 179.60 and HKD 192.98 per share [2]. - The financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach HKD 13,038 million in 2024, growing to HKD 64,823 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.9% in 2024 and 23.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 3,125 million in 2024 to HKD 21,734 million in 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 188.8% in 2024 and 24.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its IP matrix and enhancing its platform-based operational capabilities, which are expected to meet the growing demand in the collectible toy market [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is forecasted as follows: 2024A: 13,038, 2025E: 37,195, 2026E: 52,533, 2027E: 64,823 [2][8]. - Net profit (in million HKD) is projected as follows: 2024A: 3,125, 2025E: 12,235, 2026E: 17,475, 2027E: 21,734 [2][8]. - Earnings per share (in HKD) are expected to rise from 2.33 in 2024 to 16.20 in 2027 [2][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 84 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that Pop Mart's Valentine's Day limited edition blind box series has been well-received, with the first batch selling out quickly. The firm believes that Pop Mart's diverse product and IP portfolio will continue to drive consumer engagement and revenue growth, projecting that the contribution of its top two to six IPs to revenue will increase from 43% in 2025 to 48.6% this year [1]. Group 1 - The first batch of Pop Mart's Valentine's Day limited edition blind box series sold out rapidly, indicating strong consumer demand [1]. - Macquarie expects the revenue contribution from Pop Mart's top IPs to rise from 43% in 2025 to 48.6% in the current year, reflecting the company's effective product development and consumer interaction strategies [1]. - Recent stock price adjustments are attributed to investor concerns over the slowdown in Pop Mart's U.S. market operations, which Macquarie believes is an overreaction [1]. Group 2 - Macquarie maintains a "Outperform" rating for Pop Mart, with a target price of 470 HKD, citing optimism about production capacity expansion supporting sales growth [2]. - Citigroup has reiterated a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart, highlighting confidence in new product launches and share buybacks [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992.HK) with a target price of HKD 319.85 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has conducted two share buybacks, demonstrating confidence in its long-term growth logic. The buybacks occurred on January 19 and 21, 2026, costing HKD 251 million and HKD 96 million, respectively, with average prices of HKD 179.60 and HKD 192.98 per share [2]. - The financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach HKD 13,038 million in 2024, growing to HKD 64,823 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.9% in 2024 and 23.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 3,125 million in 2024 to HKD 21,734 million in 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 188.8% in 2024 and 24.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - The report highlights the company's strong IP platform and diversified product matrix, which are expected to continue meeting the demand in the trendy toy market. The ability to sustain and innovate across various IPs is emphasized as a key strength [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 13,038 - 2025: 37,195 - 2026: 52,533 - 2027: 64,823 [2][8] - Net profit (in million HKD) projections are: - 2024: 3,125 - 2025: 12,235 - 2026: 17,475 - 2027: 21,734 [2][8] - Earnings per share (in HKD) are expected to grow from 2.33 in 2024 to 16.20 in 2027 [2][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 84 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - The MOLLY 20th Anniversary Global Tour, organized by Pop Mart and artist Kenny Wong, celebrates the evolution of the MOLLY IP, highlighting its cultural significance and connection to the city of Hong Kong [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The first stop of the MOLLY 20th Anniversary Global Tour will take place in Hong Kong from January 24 to February 10, 2026, under the theme "A Constant Star" [1]. - The exhibition is supported by Octopus and the West Kowloon Cultural District, aiming to inject new charm into urban tourism through IP storytelling [1]. Group 2: MOLLY's Cultural Impact - Over the past two decades, MOLLY has witnessed significant technological advancements and cultural shifts, evolving from a local Hong Kong character to a global cultural icon [3]. - MOLLY serves as a bridge connecting the past and present, as well as art and urban life, embodying warmth and courage in a changing world [3]. Group 3: Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition features five chapters that chronologically narrate MOLLY's growth, including the initial story of her creation and the artistic process from concept to final product [4]. - It showcases a circular exhibition space displaying classic figures from 2016 onwards, allowing visitors to experience a "space adventure" with MOLLY [4]. Group 4: Artistic Contributions - The exhibition publicly reveals Kenny Wong's valuable sketches and original artworks since 2006, including a special piece created for the 20th anniversary titled "The Unchanging Star" [5]. - A documentary at the exhibition allows visitors to reconnect with MOLLY through Kenny's perspective, emphasizing her journey and future aspirations [5]. Group 5: Community Engagement - The exhibition includes a "MOLLY Charity Painting Activity" every weekend, with all proceeds donated to art education projects for special needs children, reflecting the IP's commitment to social responsibility [5]. - Kenny Wong has previously donated 1 million HKD for disaster recovery efforts in Hong Kong, adding a layer of warmth to the MOLLY brand [5].

Our take: 1) We estimate Twinkle Twinkle will account for >50% of Labubu sales in China in 2026, and the momentum of this new series is a clear signpost. 2) With proactive supply ramp, PPMT will better cater to the demand surge. Its faster restocking should smoothen the sales curve and effectively cap resale premium. It won't have to do long-dated pre-sale again, which is against its product lifecycle management. 3) G. China accounts for 55-60% of group sales; the market was undersupplied in 2H25. With popu ...

近日，多数门店已经无法买到PUCKY敲敲系列现货，二手平台上可以加价购入。 得物App数据显示，PUCKY敲敲系列隐藏款"成功"市场成交价由99元上涨至396元，溢价3倍。常规款 中，销量最高的是"智慧"，该产品市场成交价由99元上涨至209元，溢价1倍。千岛App显示，PUCKY敲 敲系列隐藏款"成功"近三日成交价为275元，溢价2倍以上，"财富"近三日成交价为134元。 【#泡泡玛特电子木鱼被炒到396元#、#泡泡玛特股价一周大涨20%#】近日，泡泡玛特PUCKY敲敲系 列"电子木鱼"产品登上热搜。在新品热潮与产品联名等多重因素带动下，泡泡玛特股价一周内（1月19 日～26日）大幅上涨超20%。 PUCKY敲敲系列"电子木鱼"将传统木鱼改造为电子发声装置，敲击头部可触发音效，结合"财富+1""快 乐+1"等好运标签，被网友戏称为"电子木鱼"。该系列1月15日推出，盲盒采用6款常规角色 + 1款隐藏款 的配置，单盒售价为99元，整盒（6个）售价为594元。 "最近来问毕奇敲敲系列商品的消费者不少，许多买不到现货的消费者也会在门店与陈列产品互动许 久。"上海市某泡泡玛特门店店员告诉记者。至于何时补货，对方表示 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][22] Core Viewpoints - The management's recent share buybacks demonstrate confidence in the company's future and stock price [3][4] - The company's new product series, PUCKY and Starry People, have shown strong demand, with sold-out status on official platforms and significant price premiums on secondary markets, indicating potential for IP value enhancement during the upcoming holiday season [3][5] - The company is expected to see substantial profit growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 120.2 billion, 170.5 billion, and 208.9 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 284.4%, 41.9%, and 22.6% [3][10][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Share Buyback - The company announced a buyback of 500,000 shares at a price of 192.97 yuan per share and the cancellation of 1.4 million shares at 179.60 yuan per share, indicating a total buyback amount of approximately 347.9 million yuan [2][5] Product Performance - Recent trends show that the PUCKY and Starry People series have sold out on official websites, with price premiums on secondary markets ranging from 2-3 times for hidden versions and 70-200% for regular versions, suggesting strong market demand [3][5][9] Financial Projections - The company has revised its profit forecasts, expecting revenues of 356.2 billion, 512.5 billion, and 634.5 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 173.2%, 43.9%, and 23.8% [10][19] - The gross margin is projected to exceed 70% in the first half of 2025, with a steady gross margin of around 71% expected through 2027 [12][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][3] Core Views - The management's recent share buybacks demonstrate confidence in the company's future and stock price [4][3] - The company's new product series, PUCKY and Starry People, have sold out on official platforms and are trading at significant premiums on secondary markets, indicating strong IP potential [3][5] - The company is expected to see substantial profit growth, with net profits projected to reach 12.02 billion, 17.05 billion, and 20.89 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 284.4%, 41.9%, and 22.6% respectively [3][10] Summary by Sections Share Buyback - The company announced a buyback of 500,000 shares at a price of 192.97 yuan per share and the cancellation of 1.4 million shares at 179.60 yuan per share, showing a total buyback of 3.47 billion yuan for 1.9 million shares [2][5] Product Performance - Recent trends show that the PUCKY and Starry People series have sold out on the official website, with hidden versions trading at premiums of 2-3 times and regular versions at 70-200% premiums [5][9] Financial Projections - The company has revised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 12.02 billion, 17.05 billion, and 20.89 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 16, and 13 [3][10] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 35.62 billion, 51.25 billion, and 63.45 billion, with growth rates of 173.2%, 43.9%, and 23.8% respectively [10][19]

2026.01.26 近日，多数门店已经无法买到PUCKY敲敲系列现货，二手平台上可以加价购入。 得物App数据显示，PUCKY敲敲系列隐藏款"成功"市场成交价由99元上涨至396元，溢价3倍。常规款 中，销量最高的是"智慧"，该产品市场成交价由99元上涨至209元，溢价1倍。千岛App显示，PUCKY敲 敲系列隐藏款"成功"近三日成交价为275元，溢价2倍以上，"财富"近三日成交价为134元。 "最近来问毕奇敲敲系列商品的消费者不少，许多买不到现货的消费者也会在门店与陈列产品互动许 久。"上海市某泡泡玛特门店店员告诉记者。至于何时补货，对方表示暂不确定。 PCUKY是泡泡玛特的一个经典IP。2018年，PCUKY潮玩产品首次上市。近年虽然PCUKY的IP并不是泡 泡玛特最头部的几个，但泡泡玛特对PUCKY持续运营，也研发出了一系列产品。2024年，PUCKY曾经 推出过不倒翁形态的毛绒产品也深受消费者欢迎。2026年的电子木鱼彻底出圈。 225年以来，除了独占鳌头的LABUBU以外，星星人、PCUKY等IP的销量也不错。在外界看来，多IP的 出圈才是比较健康的状态。对于各IP营收占比的问题，2025年的某次 ...

值得注意的是，1月20日以来，泡泡玛特的股价大涨超20%。 近日，泡泡玛特PUCKY敲敲系列"电子木鱼"产品登上热搜。在新品热潮与产品联名等多重因素带动下，泡泡玛特股价一周内（1月19日～26日）大幅上涨超 20%。 PUCKY敲敲系列"电子木鱼"将传统木鱼改造为电子发声装置，敲击头部可触发音效，结合"财富+1""快乐+1"等好运标签，被网友戏称为"电子木鱼"。该系 列1月15日推出，盲盒采用6款常规角色 + 1款隐藏款的配置，单盒售价为99元，整盒（6个）售价为594元。 PCUKY是泡泡玛特的一个经典IP。2018年，PCUKY潮玩产品首次上市。近年虽然PCUKY的IP并不是泡泡玛特最头部的几个，但泡泡玛特对PUCKY持续运 营，也研发出了一系列产品。2024年，PUCKY曾经推出过不倒翁形态的毛绒产品也深受消费者欢迎。2026年的电子木鱼彻底出圈。 225年以来，除了独占鳌头的LABUBU以外，星星人、PCUKY等IP的销量也不错。在外界看来，多IP的出圈才是比较健康的状态。对于各IP营收占比的问 题，2025年的某次财报电话会上，王宁表示，他不认为如果有一个IP营收占比特别大就不健康。"我觉得这个比例 ...