Core Viewpoint - HSBC significantly raised the target price for Pop Mart, citing the effectiveness of its multi-IP strategy and the healthy adjustment of Labubu pricing, with a target price increase from HKD 215.50 to HKD 331.50, representing a 53.8% increase and a 32% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - HSBC raised the 2025 net profit forecast for Pop Mart by 24%, driven by strong performance in overseas markets and the successful launch of Labubu 3.0 [1][5] - The revenue forecast for 2025 was increased by 34% to RMB 14.325 billion, with an expected year-on-year growth of 183% [2] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is now projected to be RMB 7.856 billion, a 131% increase year-on-year, which is 23% higher than previous estimates [5] Group 2: Market Performance - Labubu 3.0 series launched in April 2025 gained unprecedented attention due to promotion by international celebrities and KOLs, leading to strong product momentum [2] - The resale prices of Labubu 3.0 have normalized, which is beneficial for maintaining the brand's health and reducing speculative hoarding [5] - The U.S. market revenue forecast was significantly raised from RMB 3.547 billion to RMB 5.509 billion, reflecting the positive outlook for overseas markets [2] Group 3: Multi-IP Strategy - The success of Pop Mart is not solely dependent on the Labubu IP, as new series releases and other IPs continue to engage consumer interest [3] - In Thailand and other Asian markets, these regions account for over 40% and 30% of overseas revenue, respectively, indicating a diverse revenue stream [3] - The Google search index for Crybaby, the company's fourth-largest IP, surged in the quarters following the peak interest in Labubu, demonstrating the sustainability of the company's IP operations [3]

Core Points - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Stock Exchange New Generation Consumption Index (SHS New Generation Consumption) opened at 1876.23 points, showing a monthly increase of 1.87%, a quarterly decrease of 2.80%, and a year-to-date increase of 15.68% [1][2] Group 1: Index Overview - The index comprises 50 listed companies from the food and beverage, apparel, leisure, and other consumer goods and services sectors that meet new generation consumption characteristics [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2018, with a base value of 1000.0 points [1] Group 2: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted companies in the index are Xiaomi Group-W (10.6%), Tencent Holdings (9.92%), Meituan-W (8.83%), Pop Mart (8.76%), Kuaishou-W (7.7%), Yum China (5.66%), Anta Sports (5.65%), China Duty Free Group (2.8%), GoerTek (2.7%), and Shenzhou International (2.07%) [1] Group 3: Market Composition - The market composition of the index shows that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange accounts for 74.07%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 17.32%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 8.61% [1] Group 4: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index sample includes discretionary consumption at 43.37%, communication services at 33.55%, information technology at 16.67%, staples at 5.17%, and healthcare at 1.23% [2] Group 5: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Pop Mart, under the leadership of founder Wang Ning, is expanding into the film industry by establishing a movie studio and launching an animated series titled "LABUBU and Friends" [2] - Pop Mart's initial business model was a "trendy grocery store" selling various products, and it gained significant traction after introducing the Japanese Sonny Angel blind box series in 2015, which became a key contributor to single-store sales [2] - The company is also diversifying its business by launching a physical magazine called "play/GROUND," priced at 39.9 yuan [2] Group 2 - As a leading IP toy company in China, Pop Mart's strategy includes developing online film business and offline theme parks, which are seen as logical growth paths [3] - The film industry presents significant profit potential, as evidenced by the success of "Nezha 2," which grossed over 15 billion yuan, and films can enhance IP emotional resonance and attract a broader audience [3] - The opening of the first Pop Mart theme park on September 26, 2023, aims to innovate and extend the IP image while creating new revenue channels and enriching the cultural value of the IP [3] - Despite the trend of integrating film and derivative products, the domestic market has not matured, and Pop Mart's approach of moving from derivatives to film development could contribute to a more competitive commercial ecosystem [3]

金十数据6月24日讯，野村发报告指，泡泡玛特(09992.HK)上周受多项不利因素出现调整，包括旗下标 志性IP Labubu二手交易价格显著下跌，及被内地官方媒体批评向未成年人销售盲盒等，集团股价于6月 16至20日下跌12%。然而，野村认为，短期股价疲软提供良好的入场机会，故上调目标价43%，由204 港元升至291港元，维持买入评级。野村认为，Labubu产品的二手交易价格下降主要是由于供应量的增 加而非需求量的减少；官方媒体亦旨在保护未成年人避免在交易卡上的过度或非理性消费，而非遏制泡 泡玛特的发展。整体而言，该行认为泡泡玛特的快速销售增长轨迹不会发生实质变化，尤其是受到美国 及欧洲市场强劲销售表现的支持。 野村：泡泡玛特股价短期疲软提供入场机会 升目标价43% ...

Core Insights - A traveler was found carrying a large quantity of counterfeit "POP MART" branded toys and packaging while departing from Beijing Daxing Airport, raising significant intellectual property infringement concerns [1] Group 1: Incident Details - Customs officials discovered 952 counterfeit toys and 1,586 pieces of plastic and paper packaging during a routine inspection of outbound luggage [1] - The traveler admitted to carrying these items for resale purposes, indicating a commercial intent behind the infringement [1] Group 2: Legal Actions - The customs authorities have detained the goods based on preliminary assessments of substantial infringement risks [1] - The rights holder, "POP MART," confirmed that the toys and packaging were unauthorized, leading to a formal request for intellectual property protection from customs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the stock prices of Pop Mart and its peers in the new consumption sector reflects a market correction, driven by high valuations and a cooling consumer sentiment [1][4]. Group 1: Pop Mart's Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped over 15% from its peak, resulting in a market capitalization loss of more than 500 billion HKD [1][2]. - The trading price of Pop Mart's popular IP, Labubu, has plummeted in the secondary market, with a 45% drop for hidden versions and a 54% drop for non-hidden versions [2]. - On June 20, Pop Mart's stock closed at 239.6 HKD per share, down 3.62%, with significant trading volume nearing 10 billion HKD and net selling by southbound funds reaching 617 million HKD, the highest since May 12, 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The new consumption sector, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, has experienced a collective decline, with Lao Pu Gold down over 19% and Mixue Group down nearly 17% [1][4]. - Analysts indicate that the current high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios in the new consumption sector suggest overvaluation, with Pop Mart's P/E ratio at 97.17, compared to traditional consumer giants like Kweichow Moutai at 20.04 [4]. - Some analysts warn that if market sentiment cools or consumer enthusiasm wanes, stock prices may face further adjustments due to inflated expectations [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, some fund managers remain optimistic about the long-term growth potential of new consumption companies, focusing on emotional consumption, cost-effective products, and international expansion [5]. - Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group have shown signs of recovery, with Lao Pu Gold rising nearly 6% after opening its first overseas store in Singapore, indicating strategic growth opportunities [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that JPMorgan maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992), projecting a target price of HKD 330 by June 2026 based on a PEG ratio of 1.5, which is lower than the PEG ratios of leading Chinese (1.9) and global (2-3) consumer goods companies [1] - Pop Mart's stock has declined by 14% over the past five trading days, presenting a potential "buying opportunity" as the Hang Seng Index fell only 3% during the same period [2] - The company is expected to release positive earnings guidance in mid-July, with a forecasted profit of RMB 3.5 billion for the first half of 2025, surpassing the total profit for 2024 [2] Group 2 - Pop Mart is recognized as a leader in China's rapidly growing IP product market, boasting a strong portfolio of over 100 proprietary and licensed IPs, with 521 self-operated retail stores and 2,472 robot stores across more than 30 countries [3] - The company is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 51% in sales and 65% in profits from 2024 to 2027, with a net profit margin of 31.9% and a return on equity of 45.9% by 2027, driven by strong IP, new store openings, productivity improvements, and margin expansion [3] - Pop Mart's global expansion ambitions are significant, with overseas sales expected to grow by 214% year-on-year in 2025, contributing 67% to total sales by 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup maintains a constructive outlook on Pop Mart's growth potential despite recent stock price weakness, attributing concerns to the decline in second-hand prices of LABUBU V3 and calls for stricter regulation on blind boxes and blind cards by the People's Daily [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - The recent stock price weakness of Pop Mart is primarily due to market worries regarding the decline in second-hand prices of LABUBU V3 and regulatory calls for blind box products [1] - The decline in LABUBU V3 second-hand market prices is attributed to increased supply rather than a decrease in the popularity of the IP [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Despite replenishment efforts, LABUBU V1 and V2 continue to be in short supply, indicating sustained demand and rising popularity of the IP [1] - The article from the People's Daily serves as a reminder against blind purchases, particularly highlighting the popularity of these products among minors, while noting that Pop Mart's primary customer base consists of adults [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Citigroup views the recent stock price adjustment as providing more entry opportunities for investors interested in Pop Mart [1]

Core Insights - The LABUBU IP has gained immense popularity, leading to high resale prices and difficulties for collectors to purchase at retail prices [1] - Bubble Mart has successfully developed multiple IPs, with four generating over 1 billion yuan in annual revenue [1][2] Group 1: LABUBU Popularity and Market Dynamics - LABUBU's popularity has resulted in a significant increase in resale prices, with tickets for its pop-up store selling for 2400 yuan and initial figures being resold at over 20 times their original price [1] - The high resale prices have discouraged some long-time collectors, who express concerns about the authenticity of products and the excessive premiums charged by resellers [1] Group 2: Financial Performance of IPs - In 2024, MOLLY achieved a revenue of 2.09 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 105.2% [2] - SKULLPANDA generated 1.31 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.7% [2] - CRYBABY reported a remarkable revenue of 1.16 billion yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 1537.2%, making it one of the fastest-growing new IPs to surpass 1 billion yuan in sales [2]

Core Insights - LABUBU has emerged as a leading figure in the trendy toy market, significantly contributing to Pop Mart's revenue and brand recognition [2][4][31] - The collaboration between LABUBU and Pop Mart has resulted in a substantial increase in sales, with LABUBU generating 1.27 billion yuan, accounting for 31% of Pop Mart's total revenue in 2024 [4] - The popularity of LABUBU is driven by various factors, including celebrity endorsements, unique design appeal, and the ability for fans to engage in creative customization [6][8][17] Sales and Revenue - LABUBU's sales reached 1.27 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 726% increase in revenue for the THE MONSTERS series [4] - The resale market for LABUBU products shows a premium of 300%-500% for certain items, indicating high demand and perceived value [4][11] - Pop Mart's market capitalization has surged, reaching approximately 425.36 billion USD, significantly surpassing competitors like Hasbro and Bandai Namco [31][35] Brand and IP Development - LABUBU's character design incorporates elements that resonate with younger consumers, blending cuteness with a quirky aesthetic [8][17] - The brand has expanded its reach internationally, opening theme stores in Thailand and collaborating with local tourism initiatives [4][19] - Pop Mart's strategy focuses on rapid market testing and data-driven decision-making to identify and develop successful IPs [36][49] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - LABUBU has become a form of "social currency" among young consumers, facilitating social interactions and community building [15][19] - The trend of treating LABUBU products as investment assets has emerged, with some consumers viewing them as financial opportunities [11][14] - The phenomenon of LABUBU reflects a broader cultural trend among Generation Z, who seek unique expressions of identity through their purchases [17][49] Intellectual Property Challenges - LABUBU faces significant challenges related to copyright infringement and counterfeiting, exacerbated by high demand and limited supply [20][24] - Experts suggest that a comprehensive approach to intellectual property protection is necessary, including legal, technological, and community engagement strategies [30][28] - The rapid rise of LABUBU has led to a proliferation of counterfeit products, highlighting the need for effective brand protection measures [26][24] Future Outlook - Despite its current success, Pop Mart's ambition to become "China's Disney" faces challenges due to its relatively weak content ecosystem compared to established brands like Disney [49][51] - The company must diversify its IP portfolio and enhance the depth of its storytelling to sustain long-term growth and consumer engagement [49][55] - The ongoing development of content and immersive experiences will be crucial for Pop Mart to maintain its competitive edge in the evolving market [43][46]