文｜一财商学院 要说2025年最火爆的赛道，潮玩绝对算一个。 大厂背景的创业者带着一线基金的投资扎堆进军，曾要批量退出人形机器人投资的朱啸虎也转身入局， 投了Fuzozo母公司Robopoet珞博智能。据一财商学院统计，目前这条赛道上至少有30家公司，如跃然创 新、萌友智能、优必选、TCL等等。 但是，热闹之下真正实现产品商业化落地的并不多。 AI潮玩能跑出下一个Labubu吗？ 潮玩的壳子，AI陪伴的里子和做IP的心 AI潮玩到底算不算是潮玩，这是一个问题。从几家定位"AI潮玩"的公司产品上来看，它们与AI陪伴硬 件、AI宠物并无区别。 那么到底什么是AI潮玩？它和泡泡玛特、Jellycat这类潮玩有什么区别？ Labubu作为新晋顶流闪亮登场，泡泡玛特股价一度上涨近15倍，以超过3500亿港元的市值助力创始人 王宁成为河南新首富。与此同时，名创优品也传出消息，将旗下的潮玩品牌TOPTOY分拆到香港IPO， 融资目标约3亿美元。 除了潮玩头部玩家，IP快闪店、二手交易市场、拆盒直播，甚至给玩偶定制衣服、妆容的"小作坊"，都 分到了一杯羹。 然而，随着越来越多的玩家涌入，盲盒、联名、限量款早已卷到"天花板"， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent popularity of Pop Mart's LABUBU dolls represents a successful global expansion of Chinese trendy toys, driven by long-term brand building and effective IP management [1][4]. Group 1: Brand Success Factors - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its ability to create visually distinctive IPs that resonate with Generation Z, such as Molly and LABUBU, which cater to the emotional value and self-expression needs of young consumers [4][10]. - The company has effectively utilized new retail strategies, including pop-up stores, live-streaming sales, and influencer marketing, to capture consumer attention in the mobile internet era [4][12]. - The transformation of trendy toys from niche culture to mainstream products is a result of localized re-creation and refined brand operations [8][9]. Group 2: Globalization Insights - Pop Mart's success indicates that domestic original IPs can achieve cross-cultural aesthetic resonance, allowing Chinese brands to move beyond traditional OEM paths and realize global premium pricing through originality [9][10]. - The development of short videos and social networks has accelerated the global popularity of trendy toy IPs, highlighting the importance of digital marketing in contemporary consumer engagement [12][13]. - Localized strategies, such as opening physical stores abroad and adapting IPs to fit local preferences, are crucial for successful international expansion [12][13]. Group 3: Business Model and Competitive Edge - The core logic of the trendy toy industry involves multi-IP matrix operations, as relying on a single hit IP is insufficient for long-term brand sustainability [15][16]. - Pop Mart's approach emphasizes continuous operation of new characters to meet diverse consumer preferences, reflecting the varied aesthetic demands across different cultural backgrounds [15][16]. - The company's business model innovation and operational capabilities are key to its market penetration and consumer loyalty, as evidenced by increased purchase frequency following blind box experiences [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC significantly raised the target price for Pop Mart, citing the effectiveness of its multi-IP strategy and the healthy adjustment of Labubu pricing, with a target price increase from HKD 215.50 to HKD 331.50, representing a 53.8% increase and a 32% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - HSBC raised the 2025 net profit forecast for Pop Mart by 24%, driven by strong performance in overseas markets and the successful launch of Labubu 3.0 [1][5] - The revenue forecast for 2025 was increased by 34% to RMB 14.325 billion, with an expected year-on-year growth of 183% [2] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is now projected to be RMB 7.856 billion, a 131% increase year-on-year, which is 23% higher than previous estimates [5] Group 2: Market Performance - Labubu 3.0 series launched in April 2025 gained unprecedented attention due to promotion by international celebrities and KOLs, leading to strong product momentum [2] - The resale prices of Labubu 3.0 have normalized, which is beneficial for maintaining the brand's health and reducing speculative hoarding [5] - The U.S. market revenue forecast was significantly raised from RMB 3.547 billion to RMB 5.509 billion, reflecting the positive outlook for overseas markets [2] Group 3: Multi-IP Strategy - The success of Pop Mart is not solely dependent on the Labubu IP, as new series releases and other IPs continue to engage consumer interest [3] - In Thailand and other Asian markets, these regions account for over 40% and 30% of overseas revenue, respectively, indicating a diverse revenue stream [3] - The Google search index for Crybaby, the company's fourth-largest IP, surged in the quarters following the peak interest in Labubu, demonstrating the sustainability of the company's IP operations [3]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has raised the target price for Pop Mart (09992.HK) to HKD 360, maintaining an outperform rating, driven by strong demand for its IP products, particularly The Monsters [1] Group 1: Revenue and Growth Projections - Pop Mart's overseas revenue is expected to increase by 145% year-on-year to RMB 17.5 billion, accounting for 57% of total revenue [1] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56% in earnings from 2024 to 2028 [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Product Performance - The Labubu series currently has a secondary market price that is 2.6 times higher than the official retail price, indicating strong market demand [1] - The collaboration and licensing experience with Sanrio is expected to extend the IP lifecycle and strengthen the fan base, enhancing monetization opportunities [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Macquarie has increased its earnings per share forecasts for Pop Mart by 60% and 61% for the current and next year, respectively, reflecting stronger-than-expected demand and a predicted reduction in expenditure ratios [1]

Core Viewpoint - The blind box economy, particularly the LABUBU series from Pop Mart, has experienced extreme fluctuations, with a recent auction fetching 1.08 million yuan and a market drop of 22.3 billion HKD in a single day, highlighting the volatility and demand in this sector [2][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The LABUBU blind boxes have seen a massive surge in demand, with secondary market prices skyrocketing, such as a 99 yuan box selling for as much as 2548 yuan, indicating a profit margin exceeding 20 times [5][12]. - The phenomenon has led to significant involvement from scalpers, who capitalize on the limited supply, with one scalper noting that prices remain high as long as there is no restock [3][5]. - Pop Mart's initial underestimation of the LABUBU's popularity has resulted in a supply-demand imbalance, which has been misinterpreted as a strategy of "hunger marketing" [3][12]. Group 2: Sales and Revenue Growth - The blind box market in China is projected to exceed 58 billion yuan by 2025, capturing 65% of the global market share, with a compound annual growth rate of 28% [17]. - Pop Mart's overall revenue is expected to grow by 165%-170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with domestic revenue increasing by 95%-100% [18]. - International revenue has also seen remarkable growth, with a 475%-480% increase, particularly in the Americas, which surged by 895%-900% [19]. Group 3: Product and IP Strategy - The LABUBU series has significantly contributed to Pop Mart's revenue, generating 3.04 billion yuan, which accounts for 23.3% of total revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of 726.6% [19]. - Pop Mart is actively developing new IPs, such as the Crybaby series, which is projected to grow by 1537.2% in revenue in 2024, aiming to diversify beyond reliance on a single IP [20]. - The company plans to expand production capacity in Vietnam and Indonesia by the second half of 2025 to address ongoing supply shortages of LABUBU plush products [20].

Group 1 - Amazon's global anti-counterfeiting team has expanded from operating in two countries to twelve, including the US, China, France, India, and the UK over the past five years [1] - The team has initiated over 200 civil lawsuits against bad actors and has facilitated more than $180 million in related compensation and enforcement penalties [1] - More than 65 individuals have been sentenced to prison as a result of Amazon's anti-counterfeiting efforts, which have also encouraged law enforcement agencies to pursue lawsuits and criminal penalties against counterfeiters [1] Group 2 - Amazon successfully collaborated with Chinese cultural brand POP MART to combat a supplier selling counterfeit products, specifically the THE MONSTERS LABUBU toys [2] - The counterfeit supplier was identified after months of tracking and investigation by Amazon's global anti-counterfeiting team, leading to a local enforcement action that seized over 700 counterfeit LABUBU keychains and thousands of packaging materials [2] - This partnership helped protect POP MART's brand reputation and intellectual property, aiding its expansion into international markets [2]

Core Insights - The founder of Mixue Ice City, Zhang Hongchao and Zhang Hongfu, have become the new richest individuals in Henan with a net worth of 117.94 billion yuan, surpassing the previous top billionaire, Qin Yinglin of Muyuan Foods [1][2] - Mixue Ice City has achieved significant growth, with a total of 46,479 stores globally as of December 31, 2024, marking an increase of 8,914 stores compared to the same period in 2023 [2] - The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 3, 2024, with an initial market capitalization of 98.79 billion HKD, which has since risen to over 201.2 billion HKD [2] Company Development - The entrepreneurial journey of Mixue Ice City began in 1997 when Zhang Hongchao started a "cold ice" stall with 3,000 yuan saved by his grandmother [1] - The first fresh ice cream store was established in 2007, and the brothers divided responsibilities, with Zhang Hongchao focusing on supply chain and Zhang Hongfu on brand expansion [2] - The company has surpassed Starbucks in terms of the number of beverage stores globally, indicating its leading position in the market [2] Financial Performance - The stock price of Mixue Ice City surged by 29.38% on its listing day, reflecting strong market interest and confidence in its business model [2] - The net worth of the Zhang brothers increased from approximately 85 billion HKD to 117.94 billion yuan within three months post-IPO, showcasing their rapid financial ascent [2]

Group 1 - Pop Mart is recruiting talent in the home appliance sector, indicating a potential entry into the industry with positions such as small appliance procurement supervisor and quality expert, offering salaries between 12,000 to 45,000 yuan [2] - Alibaba's founder Jack Ma and CEO Wu Yongming were spotted at a meeting for Taobao Flash Sale, suggesting increased investment and resource integration in this business area due to its demonstrated potential [3] - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang sold 100,000 shares of NVIDIA stock for nearly 14.4 million USD as part of a pre-established trading plan [4] Group 2 - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman confirmed the company's intention to develop a hardware voice AI agent, following the acquisition of a company named io, which aims to enhance AI hardware capabilities [5] - Elon Musk's xAI is reportedly developing an advanced document editor for Grok that supports AI processing of spreadsheets, indicating a competitive move against major players like OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft [6] - The 2025 New Fortune Rich List revealed Zhang Yiming as the richest individual with a valuation of 481.57 billion yuan, while Lei Jun's family saw a significant wealth increase of 96% to 201 billion yuan, ranking 6th [7] Group 3 - Tencent apologized for a brief issue with QQ that caused some users to experience crashes, which was resolved quickly [8] - A report from the National Cybersecurity Center identified 45 mobile apps, including several short drama applications, for illegally collecting personal information [9] - Yikong Zhijia completed over 400 million yuan in Series D financing, led by CATL's investment platform, indicating strong interest in the autonomous driving sector [10] - Jiangsu Liwan Electronics announced the completion of several million yuan in A+ round financing, highlighting ongoing investment in the semiconductor testing equipment sector [11]

Core Insights - The popularity of LABUBU has surged, with significant sales figures indicating a strong consumer interest in collectible toys [1][3] - The demographic of LABUBU buyers is primarily young women aged 18 to 35, with a notable percentage of male consumers as well [1] - The emotional value associated with collectible toys drives consumer behavior, leading to impulsive purchases and a willingness to pay premium prices [3][4] Group 1: Sales and Market Dynamics - LABUBU has sold approximately 200,000 units since its launch, highlighting its success in the collectible toy market [1] - The market for LABUBU is characterized by limited supply and high demand, leading to inflated prices in secondary markets [3] - The trend of emotional consumption is evident, as consumers are willing to pay higher prices for products that provide emotional satisfaction [4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Demographics - The primary consumer base for LABUBU consists of young women, with 60% of buyers falling within the 18 to 35 age range [1] - Male consumers represent about 30% of the buyer demographic, indicating a diverse consumer interest [1] - The phenomenon of emotional compensation in consumer behavior suggests that buyers are motivated by the emotional fulfillment that these products provide [4] Group 3: Market Risks and Sustainability - The investment value of LABUBU is volatile, lacking intrinsic value support, which can lead to significant price fluctuations [4] - The potential for market saturation and the emergence of new IPs could diminish LABUBU's market position and value [4] - Recommendations for sustainable market practices include providing high-quality products and fostering a balanced approach to emotional consumption [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating valuation and market perception of Pop Mart, highlighting its journey from a high-flying IPO to significant declines and recent recoveries driven by the popularity of its IP, Labubu. The narrative oscillates between skepticism and optimism regarding the sustainability of its growth and valuation in the context of the collectible toy market. Group 1: Company Performance and Valuation - Pop Mart's market capitalization reached over 100 billion HKD on its IPO, but it faced a dramatic decline, losing 90% of its value by 2022, before recovering to a peak market cap of 380 billion HKD in 2025 [1][2] - The stock price of Pop Mart fluctuated significantly, dropping from 283.4 HKD to 20 HKD, reflecting investor sentiment and market conditions [1][2] - The company reported a revenue of 130.4 billion RMB in 2024, marking a significant increase, with Labubu contributing over 30 billion RMB, accounting for 23.3% of total revenue [7][8] Group 2: Product and IP Development - Labubu's emergence as a leading IP has significantly impacted Pop Mart's sales and market perception, with its products experiencing a surge in demand and prices in secondary markets [5][6] - The diversification of product categories, particularly the growth of plush toys, has led to a 1289% increase in revenue from this segment, now the second-largest revenue contributor [7][8] - The company has established a robust IP creation mechanism, collaborating with over 350 artists to continuously develop new IPs, which has led to a more balanced revenue distribution among various IPs [14][15] Group 3: Market Expansion and Globalization - Pop Mart's overseas revenue reached 50.66 billion RMB in 2024, a 375.2% increase, with significant growth in Southeast Asia and North America [9][17] - The company is transitioning from a local toy manufacturer to a global IP ecosystem platform, aiming to replicate the success of major players like Disney [10][28] - The increasing share of overseas revenue, which rose from 10% to 38.9% in three years, indicates a strong potential for future growth in international markets [25][17] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite recent successes, concerns remain about the sustainability of Pop Mart's high valuation, with a current P/E ratio around 100, significantly higher than industry averages [17][18] - The cyclical nature of the collectible toy market raises questions about the longevity of trends and consumer interest, particularly in light of regulatory scrutiny on blind box sales [22][26] - The company's efforts to diversify its IP portfolio and explore new business avenues, such as theme parks and media content, are seen as critical to maintaining growth and investor confidence [27][30]