证券研究报告 港股通 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 3 月 | 26 日│中国香港 | 消费轻工 | 目标价(港币): | 237.00 | 泡泡玛特公布 2025 年业绩：收入同增 184.7%至 371.2 亿元，经调净利同 增 284.5%至 130.8 亿元，对应经调净利率同增 9.1pct 至 35.2%。H2 收入 同增 174.1%至 232.4 亿元，经调净利率同增 7.9pct/环增 2.1pct 至 36.0%。 25 年利润端略低于我们预期（经调净利 135 亿元），主因 Q4 Labubu 爆品 销售进入中后段，带来一定产品周期。公司将 26 年视为休整优化期，在面 临 IP 热度周期波动的背景下，计划以精细运营为核心，提升组织管理能力， 为下一阶段的成长蓄力，并加快乐园、影视、甜品等多元创新业务落地。建 议关注公司的运营能力完善及 IP 集团化发展进程，维持"买入"评级。 Labubu 爆品周期或致 Q4 环比承压，新锐 IP 成长助力结构均衡 ...

以精细运营应对 IP 周期 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 3 月 | 26 日│中国香港 | 消费轻工 | 目标价(港币): | 237.00 | 泡泡玛特公布 2025 年业绩：收入同增 184.7%至 371.2 亿元，经调净利同 增 284.5%至 130.8 亿元，对应经调净利率同增 9.1pct 至 35.2%。H2 收入 同增 174.1%至 232.4 亿元，经调净利率同增 7.9pct/环增 2.1pct 至 36.0%。 25 年利润端略低于我们预期（经调净利 135 亿元），主因 Q4 Labubu 爆品 销售进入中后段，带来一定产品周期。公司将 26 年视为休整优化期，在面 临 IP 热度周期波动的背景下，计划以精细运营为核心，提升组织管理能力， 为下一阶段的成长蓄力，并加快乐园、影视、甜品等多元创新业务落地。建 议关注公司的运营能力完善及 IP 集团化发展进程，维持"买入"评级。 证券研究报告 港股通 泡泡玛特 (9992 HK) 盈利预测与估值 ...

| 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因 公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 | | | --- | --- | | 股票發行人現金股息公告 | | | 發行人名稱 | 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 | | 股份代號 | 09992 | | 多櫃檯股份代號及貨幣 | 不適用 | | 相關股份代號及名稱 | 不適用 | | 公告標題 | 截至二零二五年十二月三十一日止年度的末期股息 | | 公告日期 | 2026年3月25日 | | 公告狀態 | 新公告 | | 股息信息 | | | 股息類型 | 末期 | | 股息性質 | 普通股息 | | 財政年末 | 2025年12月31日 | | 宣派股息的報告期末 | 2025年12月31日 | | 宣派股息 | 每 股 2.3817 RMB | | 股東批准日期 | 2026年5月13日 | | 香港過戶登記處相關信息 | | | 派息金額及公司預設派發貨幣 | HKD， 金額有待公佈 | | 匯率 | 有待公佈 | | 除淨日 | 202 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司以及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公佈的內容概不負責，對其準確 性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並表明概不就因本公佈全部或任何部份內容而產生或因依賴該 等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 POP MART INTERNATIONAL GROUP LIMITED 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：9992） 截至2025年12月31日止年度的 年度業績公佈 及所得款項用途變更 | 年度業績摘要 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 截至12月31日止年度 | | | | | 2025年 | 2024年 | 同比變動 | | | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | (%) | | 收益 | 37,120,052 | 13,037,749 | 184.7% | | 毛利 | 26,764,916 | 8,707,765 | 207.4% | | 經營溢利 | 16,890,474 | 4,154,272 | 306.6% | | 除所得稅前溢利 | 17,036,622 | 4,365,812 | 290.2% | | 年內溢 ...

泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：9992） 建議修訂組織章程細則及 採納第四次經修訂及重述 組織章程大綱及細則 香港交易及結算所有限公司以及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確 性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因 依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 POP MART INTERNATIONAL GROUP LIMITED 建議細則修訂及採納第四次經修訂及重述組織章程大綱及細則須待本公司股東 （「股東」）於本公司即將召開的股東週年大會（「股東週年大會」）或任何續會通過特 別決議案批准後，方可作實。一份載有（其中包括）上述標的事項進一步詳情的本 公司通函連同股東週年大會通告將根據上市規則的規定適時寄發予股東（如必要）。 承董事會命 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 執行董事、董事會主席及行政總裁 王寧 香港，2026年3月25日 於本公告日期，執行董事為王寧先生、劉冉女士、司德先生及文德一先生，非執 行董事為屠錚先生及吴越先生，以及獨立非執行董事為張建君先生、吳聯生先生 及顏勁良先生。 本公告乃根據香港聯合交 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China IP Retailers and Toy Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese IP retail and toy industry, specifically analyzing companies like Pop Mart and Miniso, along with their sales performance and product launches in February 2026. Key Points on Pop Mart - **Sales Growth**: Pop Mart's online sales growth in China slowed in February, attributed to reduced supply and a high base from January when NeZha was popular. The growth rate was reported at 31% year-over-year, down from over 300% in January [7][9]. - **Product Launches**: New plush toy series under Crybaby and Angry Molly were launched, but their sales volume was lower than previous successful series. For instance, Angry Molly series had over 10,000 sales on Douyin and Tmall, while Crybaby's series had over 20,000 [9]. - **Secondary Market Performance**: The secondary market prices for most IPs remained stable, with Labubu's prices showing a sequential improvement, currently at a discount of approximately 20% [9][17]. - **New Collaborations**: A new plush toy series in collaboration with Sanrio is set to launch, which could attract new customers, although sustainability of sales is a concern [9][17]. - **Sales Performance**: Overall, Pop Mart's sales performance during the Chinese New Year (CNY) was strong, with high single-digit same-store sales growth (SSSG) [9]. Key Points on Miniso - **Sales Growth**: Miniso reported a high single-digit SSSG in the Chinese market during CNY, with credit card sales growth in the US at 50% in February, down from 65% in January [9][28]. - **Margin Focus**: Margin performance is highlighted as a key area of focus for investors, indicating potential concerns about profitability amidst sales growth [9]. - **Product Launches**: Miniso's new product launches were relatively slow, consistent with historical seasonality, focusing on existing IPs [9]. Other Important Insights - **US Market Trends**: In the US, credit card sales growth for Pop Mart decelerated to 65% in February from 150% in January. The pricing for new plush toy series was set lower than previous launches, indicating a strategic shift [27][33]. - **Consumer Sentiment**: The consumer sentiment in various regions showed mixed trends, with improvements in the US and Singapore, while sentiment in Indonesia deteriorated [49]. - **Market Competition**: The report notes that the upcoming film slate for 2026/27 could serve as a catalyst for US toy companies, suggesting a competitive landscape that needs monitoring [26]. Conclusion - The Chinese IP retail and toy industry is experiencing a mix of growth and challenges, with companies like Pop Mart and Miniso navigating supply constraints and changing consumer preferences. The focus on product launches, secondary market performance, and margin sustainability will be critical for future performance.

Summary of the Conference Call on Pop Mart Company and Industry Overview - The conference focused on **Pop Mart**, a company in the **IP (Intellectual Property)** and **entertainment** industry, drawing comparisons with major players like **Disney** and **Netflix** [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Disney's Business Model and Evolution - **Disney's Development**: Established in 1923, Disney has evolved from creating iconic characters like Mickey Mouse to becoming a global entertainment giant through strategic acquisitions (Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, 21st Century Fox) and a diversified business model [2][3][4][6][10]. - **Revenue Breakdown**: As of the fiscal year 2025, Disney's total revenue reached **$94.4 billion**, with a net profit of **$12.4 billion**. The entertainment segment generated **$42.47 billion**, while the experience segment (theme parks) contributed **$36.16 billion** [10][14]. - **IP Strategy**: Disney's IP acquisition strategy includes original creations, copyright purchases, and strategic acquisitions, resulting in a robust portfolio of valuable IPs, including **Mickey Mouse**, **Star Wars**, and **Marvel** franchises [13][19]. Netflix's Business Model and Evolution - **Netflix's Transformation**: Founded in 1997, Netflix transitioned from DVD rentals to a leading global streaming platform, emphasizing original content creation since 2013 with hits like "House of Cards" [19][20][21]. - **Revenue Growth**: Netflix's revenue has shown significant growth, with a projected **60.8%** increase in net profit for 2024 and **26%** growth in 2025, driven by advertising and subscription strategies [21][22]. - **User Base and Market Position**: As of 2025, Netflix boasts **325 million** global subscribers, maintaining a **23%** market share in the streaming video on demand (SVOD) sector, significantly ahead of competitors like Amazon and Disney [22][23][24]. Comparative Analysis of Disney and Netflix - **Content Strategy**: Both companies leverage their IPs to create a diverse content library. Disney focuses on family-friendly content and experiences, while Netflix emphasizes a wide range of genres to cater to various demographics [19][30]. - **User Engagement**: Netflix's user retention rate is notably low at **2%**, attributed to its extensive content library and personalized viewing experience, while Disney's experience segment provides significant cash flow to support its streaming ambitions [30][36]. Financial Performance Insights - **Disney's Financials**: Disney's entertainment segment saw a **3%** revenue growth, while its linear networks faced a **12%** decline due to competitive pressures [10][11]. - **Netflix's Financials**: Netflix's average revenue per member (ARM) increased from **$9.43** in 2017 to **$11.7** in 2024, showcasing its effective monetization strategies [24][35]. Other Important Insights - **Market Trends**: The conference highlighted the increasing competition in the streaming market, with both companies adapting their strategies to maintain and grow their user bases [21][22]. - **Future Outlook**: The discussion emphasized the importance of continuous innovation in content creation and distribution to sustain growth in the rapidly evolving entertainment landscape [19][30]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Pop Mart's positioning within the broader context of the entertainment industry, particularly in relation to Disney and Netflix.

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 POP MART INTERNATIONAL GROUP LIMITED 董事會會議通告 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司及併表聯屬實體統稱「本 集團」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此宣佈，本公司將於2026年3月25日（星期三）舉行董 事會會議，藉以（其中包括）考慮及批准本集團截至2025年12月31日止年度之經 審核全年業績及其發佈，以及考慮派付末期股息（如有）。 承董事會命 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 執行董事、董事會主席及行政總裁 王寧 香港，2026年3月4日 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：9992） 於本公告日期，執行董事為王寧先生、劉冉女士、司德先生及文德一先生，非執 行董事為屠錚先生及吳越先生，以及獨立非執行董事為張建君先生、吳聯生先生 及顏勁良先生。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 63.21 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 23% [5] - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to reach 22.53 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [5] - The investment value of the company is anticipated to be reassessed due to its excellent business model and long-term user growth potential [5] Financial Projections - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 6,345 million yuan - 2024A: 13,038 million yuan (36% growth) - 2025E: 40,484 million yuan (105% growth) - 2026E: 52,364 million yuan (29% growth) - 2027E: 64,214 million yuan (23% growth) [3] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 1,082 million yuan - 2024A: 3,125 million yuan (108% growth) - 2025E: 14,293 million yuan (170% growth) - 2026E: 18,018 million yuan (26% growth) - 2027E: 22,530 million yuan (25% growth) [3] - Earnings Per Share: - 2023A: 0.81 yuan - 2024A: 2.33 yuan - 2025E: 10.65 yuan - 2026E: 13.43 yuan - 2027E: 16.79 yuan [3] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2023A: 252.1 - 2024A: 87.3 - 2025E: 19.1 - 2026E: 15.1 - 2027E: 12.1 [3] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2023A: 35.1 - 2024A: 25.5 - 2025E: 10.9 - 2026E: 6.3 - 2027E: 4.2 [3] Business Model Insights - The company is compared to Disney and Netflix, highlighting its potential to build a comprehensive IP ecosystem [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of user scale as a foundation for monetization and valuation expansion [5] - The company is positioned to leverage its IP platform for long-term growth, with a focus on user engagement and ecosystem development [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the company, projecting significant revenue and profit growth driven by its IP platform, which is compared to industry giants like Disney and Netflix [5] - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 404.84 billion, 523.64 billion, and 642.14 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 211%, 29%, and 23% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 142.93 billion, 180.18 billion, and 225.30 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 347%, 26%, and 25% [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 6,345 million yuan - 2024A: 13,038 million yuan (36% growth) - 2025E: 40,484 million yuan (105% growth) - 2026E: 52,364 million yuan (211% growth) - 2027E: 64,214 million yuan (29% growth) [3] - Net profit projections are: - 2023A: 1,082 million yuan - 2024A: 3,125 million yuan (108% growth) - 2025E: 14,293 million yuan (170% growth) - 2026E: 18,018 million yuan (347% growth) - 2027E: 22,530 million yuan (26% growth) [3] - Earnings per share are projected to increase from 0.81 yuan in 2023 to 16.79 yuan in 2027 [3] Business Model and Competitive Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the IP market, with a business model that effectively combines content creation, distribution, and consumer engagement [5] - The report highlights the importance of user growth as a key driver for valuation expansion, indicating that a robust user base is essential for monetization [5] - The company’s business model is noted for its potential to generate long-term user growth and investment value, suggesting that the market has yet to fully recognize this potential [5]