Pre-market futures are up slightly this morning, countering the slight selloff we saw during Tuesday's trading day. Economic news out ahead of the open bounced pre-markets higher momentarily, but currently we're +20 points on the Dow, +8 on the S&P 500 and +50 points on the Nasdaq. Bond yields crept up a bit following these reports and in anticipation of the Fed meeting this afternoon. Earnings reports ahead of the bell show a few big changes from expectations: Kraft Heinz (KHC) beat bottom- line earnings e ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report highlights Qualcomm's (QCOM.US) strategic shift from a heavy reliance on smartphone business to diversification into PC (especially high-performance AI-enabled AIPC), automotive chips, and IoT, showcasing different growth dynamics and future drivers, which is expected to lead to robust growth and exceed Wall Street's expectations for Q3 and FY2025 [1][2] Qualcomm's Business Diversification - Qualcomm's revenue composition is increasingly diversified, covering smartphones, PCs, automotive electronics, and IoT, with smartphones remaining the largest segment driven by Snapdragon chips and 5G modem patents [2][4] - The company is benefiting from the unexpected strong demand for AI-enabled high-end smartphones, particularly in flagship Android devices, achieving low double-digit year-over-year growth despite a slowdown in the overall smartphone market [2][4] Edge AI Strategy - Qualcomm's core strategy revolves around Edge AI, deploying AI models directly on local devices for real-time processing, which reduces latency and bandwidth usage [3] - The PC segment is emerging as a new focus for Qualcomm's Edge AI strategy, particularly with the introduction of ARM-based platforms like Oryon CPU and NPU, targeting the AI laptop market [3] Automotive and IoT Growth - Qualcomm's automotive chip business has shown impressive growth, maintaining approximately 30% growth driven by the digitalization and electrification trends in the automotive industry, with over $30 billion in orders [4] - The IoT segment, covering wearables, AR/VR, smart home, and industrial IoT, is also experiencing stable growth, contributing 20-40% of Qualcomm's revenue and growing faster than the core smartphone business [4] Resilience and Valuation - Qualcomm's diversification strategy enhances its resilience against market fluctuations, allowing it to maintain revenue guidance even if it loses major clients like Apple [4][7] - Morgan Stanley has reiterated a bullish stance on Qualcomm, raising the 12-month target price from $190 to $200, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term growth potential and the unique defensive attributes of its diversified business model [2][6][9] Semiconductor Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is viewed positively, with a focus on opportunities in high-performance AI chips, automotive electronics, and edge computing, where Qualcomm's expertise positions it uniquely [10] - Qualcomm's technology leadership in Edge AI across multiple sectors, including smartphones, automotive, and IoT, is expected to gain greater market recognition, enhancing its valuation [10] Investment Considerations - Qualcomm is seen as a balanced investment choice, offering both defensive characteristics and growth potential, with a valuation that has not yet fully reflected its long-term growth prospects [11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is considering imposing tariffs on semiconductor imports, with results from a national security investigation expected in two weeks, potentially affecting major semiconductor manufacturers and designers [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Investigation and Implications - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the investigation into semiconductor imports is based on the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, focusing on national security implications [1]. - Trump has indicated that tariffs could range from 25% to 100%, with a likely implementation window after mid-August [1][5]. - Major semiconductor companies and industry associations are urging caution, warning that broad tariffs could severely damage the U.S. semiconductor industry [1]. Group 2: International Trade Agreements - Trump stated that many companies will invest in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing to avoid the impact of new tariffs, while also highlighting a recent agreement with the EU for a 15% tariff rate [2][3]. - The agreement with the EU includes significant investments and purchases of U.S. military and energy products, with implications for the automotive and agricultural sectors [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The implementation of semiconductor tariffs is expected to have profound effects on global supply chains and the U.S. economy, with skepticism from industry experts regarding the effectiveness of the policy in bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. [4]. - An estimate from ITIF suggests that a 25% tariff could lead to a 0.18% decline in U.S. economic growth in the first year, accumulating to a GDP loss of $1.4 trillion over ten years [5].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached intra-day record highs but closed in the red, with the Dow down 204 points (-0.46%), S&P 500 down 18 points (-0.30%), Nasdaq down 80 points (-0.38%), and Russell 2000 down 13 points (-0.61%) [1] - Trade deals are progressing but lack the strength to drive the market higher, with Q2 earnings showing some weaknesses outside of Big Tech [2] Federal Reserve Policy - A new announcement on Fed policy is expected, with the current interest rate of 4.25-4.50% likely to remain unchanged for the fifth consecutive FOMC meeting [3] - Some analysts anticipate dissent among Fed members regarding the need for rate cuts despite current unemployment at +4.1% and inflation at +2.7% [3] Earnings Reports - **Starbucks (SBUX)**: Reported Q3 earnings of $0.50 per share, missing the consensus of $0.65, attributed to a one-time charge of $0.11. Revenues were $9.50 billion, exceeding expectations of $9.30 billion. Same-store sales fell -2% compared to a -1.3% consensus [4][5] - **Visa (V)**: Reported earnings of $2.98 per share, beating expectations of $2.86, with revenues of $10.2 billion surpassing the $9.87 billion forecast. Despite strong performance, shares fell -3% in after-hours trading [6] - **Booking Holdings (BKNG)**: Reported Q2 earnings of $55.40 per share, exceeding the $50.59 estimate, with revenues of $6.8 billion above the $6.56 billion consensus. Gross bookings reached $46.7 billion [7] - **Mondelez (MDLZ)**: Reported earnings of $0.73 per share, beating estimates by $0.05, with revenues of $8.98 billion exceeding the $8.88 billion expectation. The company faced challenges from rising cocoa prices and tariffs [8] Upcoming Market Events - The earnings season is expected to peak with reports from major companies like Microsoft and Meta Platforms, along with others such as Ford and Qualcomm [9] - Private-sector payroll data from ADP is anticipated, with a consensus of +64K jobs for July, following a previous decline of -33K [10] - Q2 GDP is projected to rebound to +2.3% from Q1's -0.5%, influenced by tariff policies and economic outlook improvements [10]

Group 1 - Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM) is set to announce its fiscal third-quarter earnings results on July 30, with analysts expecting earnings of $2.71, reflecting a 16.3% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $10.34 billion, a 10.1% rise [1] - The post-earnings history for Qualcomm has been poor, with the stock declining in all four next-day sessions over the past year, including an 8.9% drop in May [2] - Options markets are anticipating a 9% price swing for Qualcomm's stock following the earnings announcement, which is higher than the 6.3% average move over the last two years [2] Group 2 - Qualcomm's stock has faced resistance at the $162 level since early June, while support is noted at the $153 level and the 50-day moving average [3] - Year-to-date, Qualcomm's equity has increased by 5.7% [3] - There has been a notable increase in call options activity for Qualcomm over the past 10 weeks, with a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.26, ranking higher than 90% of readings from the past year [5]

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm Inc. is at a pivotal moment as it prepares to report earnings, with the stock having gained nearly 30% since April, contrasting with more volatile peers like NVIDIA and AMD [1][3]. Financial Performance - Qualcomm's stock is currently trading around $161.05, with a P/E ratio of 16.40 and a dividend yield of 2.21% [2]. - The stock has shown a consistent pattern of higher lows and higher highs, indicating a stable uptrend [2]. - Qualcomm has exceeded analyst expectations for seven consecutive quarters, which builds confidence among investors [3]. Market Position - Qualcomm trades at a significant discount compared to industry peers, with its P/E ratio below 17, while NVIDIA and AMD have P/E ratios above 55 and 120, respectively [4]. - JPMorgan has raised its price target for Qualcomm to $200, suggesting a potential upside of 25% from current levels [5]. Growth Opportunities - Qualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from a recovery in cloud infrastructure spending and is expanding its presence in the automotive and IoT sectors [6]. - The upcoming earnings report is crucial as it may confirm whether Qualcomm is transitioning from a stagnant performer to a stock poised for significant growth [7]. Analyst Sentiment - There is a mix of opinions on Qualcomm's future, with JPMorgan being bullish while UBS maintains a Neutral rating due to macroeconomic challenges [7]. - The average 12-month stock price forecast for Qualcomm is $183.95, indicating a potential upside of 14.22% [8]. Investment Strategies - Investors have two approaches regarding the upcoming earnings report: one is to buy into pre-earnings optimism based on JPMorgan's target, and the other is to wait for confirmation of a breakout above July's high of $164 [9][10]. - The consistent earnings performance and recent price target upgrades suggest a potential shift in the investment narrative for Qualcomm [11].

Market Capitalization Changes - The market capitalization of major global technology and internet companies has shown varied changes as of July 29, 2025, with notable increases in companies like Tesla and AMD, which rose by 3.02% and 4.32% respectively [3][4] - Companies such as Tencent and Netflix experienced slight declines in their market values, with changes of -0.14% and -0.5% respectively [3][4] - Alibaba and Oracle saw increases in their market capitalization, with Alibaba rising by 1.77% and Oracle by 1.06% [3][4] Company Performance Highlights - Tesla's market capitalization reached $1,050.1 billion, reflecting a significant increase [3] - AMD's market capitalization increased to $281.5 billion, indicating strong performance in the semiconductor sector [3] - Alibaba's market capitalization is now at $291.8 billion, showing a positive trend in the e-commerce space [3] Sector Trends - The technology sector continues to show resilience, with companies like ServiceNow and Adobe also reporting increases in their market values [4][5] - The semiconductor industry remains robust, as evidenced by the performance of companies like Intel and Micron Technology, despite some fluctuations [5][6] - The internet services sector, represented by companies like Pinduoduo and Uber, is experiencing mixed results, with some companies facing declines [4][5]

Core Insights - Qualcomm is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on July 30, 2025, with revenue and earnings estimates at $10.36 billion and $2.68 per share respectively [1] - The earnings estimate for fiscal 2025 has decreased by 0.26% over the past 60 days, while the estimate for fiscal 2026 has declined by 1.99% [1] Earnings Performance - Qualcomm has a four-quarter earnings surprise average of 6.43%, having beaten estimates in each quarter, with the last reported quarter showing a surprise of 0.71% [3][4] Earnings Predictions - The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.60% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a likelihood of an earnings beat for the upcoming quarter [5][6] Recent Developments - Qualcomm launched the Snapdragon 7 Gen 4 Mobile Platform, enhancing AI performance and gaming capabilities, which has gained traction among leading OEMs like HONOR and vivo [7][8] - The company has been selected by e& to enhance digital infrastructure in the UAE and is involved in Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 initiative, focusing on AI and 5G technologies [9] - Recent acquisitions include Autotalks for V2X technology, MovianAI for generative AI capabilities, and a definitive agreement to acquire Alphawave Semi for approximately $2.4 billion, aimed at enhancing AI capabilities [10][11] Market Performance - Over the past year, Qualcomm's stock has decreased by 10.3%, underperforming the industry growth of 41%, while competitors like Broadcom have seen significant gains [12] Valuation Metrics - Qualcomm's shares are trading at a forward P/E ratio of 13.44, which is lower than the industry average of 34.13 and below its historical mean of 16.97, indicating a relatively cheaper valuation [13] Strategic Focus - The company aims to lead in AI innovation through strategic acquisitions and R&D initiatives, targeting various industries including smartphones and automotive [16] - Qualcomm is experiencing strong demand in the premium handset market but faces margin pressures in the mid-range segment due to competition from low-cost chipmakers [17] Competitive Landscape - Despite challenges, Intel remains a significant competitor in chipset development, particularly in the AI PC sector, which could impact Qualcomm's expansion in that area [18] Long-term Outlook - While current earnings estimates show bearish sentiment, Qualcomm's focus on AI initiatives and diversification of its portfolio positions it well for long-term growth, particularly in high-end smartphones and IoT [20]

Earnings Reports - Q2 earnings season is ramping up with major companies like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon set to report earnings this week [2][3] - A total of 164 companies in the S&P 500 are expected to release their earnings results by August 1st [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, maintaining the current rate of +4.25-4.50% [4] - There is only a 2% chance that the Fed will cut rates at this meeting, with a 67% probability of a 25 basis-point cut in September [5] Labor Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims have decreased to 217K, but the labor market may be weakening as ADP reported a negative -33K jobs filled in June, the first decline in over two years [7] - The BLS report indicated +147K new jobs in June, but only about 70K were outside government hires, which may not be sufficient to offset the retiring workforce [8]

Group 1: US-China Economic Talks - The US and China held economic talks in Stockholm, Sweden, on July 28, focusing on mutual economic concerns and cooperation based on respect and win-win principles [1][4] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of continuing discussions in line with the consensus reached during the phone call between the two countries' leaders on June 5 [1][4] Group 2: Childcare Subsidy Policy - A national childcare subsidy policy was announced, providing 3,600 yuan per child per year for families with children under three years old, effective from January 1, 2025 [2] - The policy aims to alleviate the financial burden on families and is applicable to all children regardless of whether they are first, second, or third born, ensuring comprehensive coverage [2] Group 3: Industry Governance and Competition - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to strengthen governance in the new energy vehicle sector and address "involution" competition in industries like photovoltaics [3][6] - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association issued a "反内卷" (anti-involution) initiative to combat low-cost dumping and promote fair market practices [7] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The stock of Weite New Materials surged over 900% after a major shareholder change, indicating a shift towards intelligent manufacturing and enhancing the company's valuation [8] - The US stock market showed mixed results, with Tesla's stock rising nearly 2% following a significant chip supply agreement with Samsung [9] Group 5: Corporate Earnings and Developments - WuXi AppTec reported a net profit of 8.561 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 101.92%, and raised its revenue forecast for 2025 [14] - Several companies, including Viyang Technology and Suzhou Institute of Technology, faced negative developments, such as investigations and profit declines [15]