17 December 2025 U.S. Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Bernstein Semi Cycle Tearsheet: Why overcomplicate it? Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw +1 917 344 8454 alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes +1 917 344 8461 arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com How quickly narratives shift…The steam has come out of the AI trade in recent months as investors more fully wonder when the music might stop (or if we're there already). Memory has come off of one ...

Core Insights - The Ambient Computing Market is projected to grow from USD 44.62 billion in 2025 to USD 269.68 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 25.30% from 2026 to 2033 [1][5]. Market Growth Drivers - The increasing adoption of IoT devices, smart homes, and wearable technology is driving the demand for ambient computing solutions [1]. - Businesses and consumers are seeking intelligent, context-aware technologies that enhance efficiency and convenience through automation and real-time decision-making [1]. - The integration of ambient computing with networked workspaces, health monitoring, and home automation is accelerating its adoption [1]. Market Segmentation By Component - Hardware holds a 41.5% market share, driven by the adoption of smart sensors and IoT-enabled devices, while software is the fastest-growing segment with a CAGR of 30.2% [7]. By Technology - Voice Assistants and Natural Language Processing (NLP) lead with a 38.9% share, while Edge Computing is the fastest-growing segment with a CAGR of 32.1% [8]. By Application - Smart Homes account for 43.7% of the market share, with Healthcare & Assisted Living being the fastest-growing segment at a CAGR of 31.4% [9][10]. By End-User - Consumers represent 46.2% of the market, with Healthcare Providers being the fastest-growing segment at a CAGR of 30.6% [11]. Regional Insights - North America holds a 34.00% market share in ambient computing due to its advanced technology infrastructure and the presence of major tech companies [12]. - Asia Pacific is expected to grow at the fastest CAGR of about 27.18% from 2026 to 2033, driven by digital transformation and increasing adoption of smart devices [13]. Key Market Players - Major players in the ambient computing market include Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Samsung, IBM, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Intel, Huawei, Meta, Cisco, Schneider Electric, Sony, and LG [4].

Core Insights - The communication industry is reassessing the foundational logic of next-generation networks as the standardization year for 6G approaches, with significant emphasis on the impact of AI and intelligent agents on future network forms [1][3]. Group 1: Technological Evolution and Application Trends - The evolution of mobile communication has been driven by two main lines: continuous technological advancement and changing industry application trends, with AI increasingly influencing these developments since the advent of 5G [3]. - The integration of edge computing, intelligent agents, and robotics will be core drivers of 6G development, reshaping the capabilities of future networks [3]. Group 2: Rise of Intelligent Agents and AI - The global intelligent agent market is expected to grow rapidly, fundamentally changing user interaction methods, moving away from independent apps to native AI agents for natural interaction [4]. - This shift will not only affect user behavior but also reshape the terminal ecosystem, expanding Qualcomm's focus from mobile phones to AI PCs, XR, wearables, and smart connected vehicles [6]. Group 3: Network Demand and Traffic Models - The rise of intelligent agents will generate substantial data, necessitating increased network and traffic demands, shifting from a "downlink-dominated" model to an "uplink-dominated" structure [7]. - Specific usage scenarios indicate that personal AI assistants could generate 44GB of data monthly, while XR applications could exceed 50GB of traffic, with a significant portion being uplink data [7]. Group 4: Key Technologies Supporting 6G Growth - To meet the increasing traffic demands, the industry will rely on two core technologies: massive MIMO and wider frequency spectrum bandwidth [8]. - The introduction of the FR3 frequency band (approximately 7GHz–24GHz) aims to expand bandwidth significantly, enhancing system capacity [8]. Group 5: AI's Value in Wireless Systems - AI will not only drive application innovation but also play a crucial role in reducing operational costs and supporting new business models [10]. - Qualcomm's collaboration with Nokia Bell Labs focuses on wireless AI interoperability, exploring how AI models can collaborate across terminal and cloud environments [10]. Group 6: Satellite Communication and Key Technologies - Satellite communication is becoming essential for broader network coverage in 6G, with ongoing research into non-terrestrial networks (NTN) [12]. - The development of Probabilistic Amplitude Shaping (PAS) is highlighted as a significant advancement for 6G, potentially offering performance gains in signal transmission [12]. Group 7: Qualcomm's Leadership in 6G Development - Qualcomm has been recognized as a "6G R&D Pioneer" for its early investments and practices in 6G technology, focusing on AI and integrated sensing innovations [13]. - The company is actively advancing its technical layout for 6G, aiming for pre-commercial terminal readiness by 2028, while also collaborating with industry partners on standardization efforts [15].

Group 1: U.S. Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising over 200 points and the Nasdaq increasing by nearly 1% on December 19 [2] - Major tech stocks led the rebound, with Nvidia and Oracle seeing substantial increases of 2.73% and 6.92% respectively, as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's potential for future rate cuts [3][4] - The upcoming "triple witching" event, where stock-related derivatives and index options expire, is expected to create volatility, with an estimated $7.1 trillion in nominal open interest set to expire [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that recent market fluctuations are more technical and mechanical rather than indicative of fundamental changes, emphasizing that long-term investors should not be overly concerned [5] - U.S. consumer confidence showed a lower-than-expected rebound, influenced by affordability issues, while existing home sales saw only a slight increase due to slowing price growth and declining mortgage rates [5] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach to interest rates, as indicated by New York Fed President Williams, who noted no urgent need for further adjustments [6] Group 3: Russian Monetary Policy - Russia's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16%, marking the second consecutive reduction, amid concerns over rising inflation due to upcoming tax increases [7][8] - The central bank highlighted that inflation expectations remain high, which could hinder sustainable inflation reduction, with consumer inflation expectations soaring to 13.7% in December [8] - Despite the rate cuts, high interest rates continue to pressure businesses and households, particularly in non-defense sectors like construction and transportation, which are experiencing increased losses [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm is entering the AI chip market, aiming to compete with Nvidia and AMD, and is focusing on integrating AI into automotive technology, which is expected to revolutionize robotics and driving assistance systems [2][3]. Group 1: AI Integration in Automotive - Qualcomm's AI chips will be implemented in vehicles across 100 countries by the end of next year, indicating a significant expansion in their automotive technology offerings [2][5]. - The company has developed driving assistance systems for major automakers like Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, and General Motors, which include features such as lane keeping and automatic parking [3]. - Qualcomm's first driving assistance system solution, developed in collaboration with BMW, has been rolled out to 60 countries after three and a half years of development [3]. Group 2: Future of Autonomous Driving - The development and adoption of autonomous driving technology typically take about ten years, but the pace of innovation is expected to accelerate in the next five years [5]. - A recent survey indicated that 43% of drivers planning to purchase a new car in the next three years are interested in using hands-free semi-autonomous driving features, reflecting a growing demand for such technologies [5]. Group 3: Safety and Regulation - The development of safe and regulated driving technologies requires a clear, rule-based protective framework, which will be enhanced by the integration of AI [6][7].

Group 1 - Qualcomm has officially completed the acquisition of Alphawave IP Group plc (Alphawave Semi) on December 18, ahead of the original schedule by about one quarter [1] - The integration of Alphawave Semi's capabilities in high-speed wired connectivity will complement Qualcomm's next-generation Qualcomm Oryon CPU and Qualcomm Hexagon NPU processors, enhancing Qualcomm's product portfolio in AI computing and connectivity solutions [1] - Following the acquisition, Tony Pialis, CEO and co-founder of Alphawave Semi, will lead Qualcomm's data center business, indicating a strategic focus on data center innovation and infrastructure development [2] Group 2 - Alphawave Semi is a significant player in the global high-speed wired connectivity sector, providing custom chips, connectivity products, and chiplet solutions aimed at improving data transmission speed, reliability, and energy efficiency [2] - The company's products are widely used in high-growth areas such as data centers, artificial intelligence, data networks, and data storage, highlighting its relevance in the technology landscape [2]

Qualcomm has concluded the acquisition of Alphawave Group, known as Alphawave Semi, for an implied enterprise value of around $2.4bn (£1.79bn). The company reported that the transaction was completed a quarter ahead of schedule. Announced in June 2025, the deal was originally expected to close in the first quarter of 2026. Tony Pialis, CEO and co-founder of Alphawave Semi, will lead Qualcomm’s data centre business. Pialis said: “Joining Qualcomm marks an exciting new chapter for Alphawave Semi. “We a ...

Core Insights - The "8th China International Import Expo Communication Influence Report" was released, highlighting the event's significant impact and participation [1][3] - Qualcomm was recognized as a "Star of the Expo" for its outstanding performance, ranking sixth overall and third in the technology equipment sector [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) is hosted by the Ministry of Commerce and the Shanghai Municipal Government, serving as a vital platform for foreign enterprises to connect with various sectors in China [3] - This year, the expo featured 4,108 exhibitors from 138 countries and regions, including 290 Fortune 500 and industry-leading companies [3] - The Import Expo Bureau has published the communication influence report for eight consecutive years, providing important references for measuring the expo's impact [3] Group 2: Communication Impact - The report utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods to present a multi-dimensional view of the communication situation, introducing the "Star of the Expo" to highlight participants with significant communication heat throughout the year [3] - The communication heat of this year's expo was high, with a total data volume of 6 billion times and over 2.4 million pieces of information monitored [3] Group 3: Qualcomm's Participation - Qualcomm showcased its innovative achievements in collaboration with 26 partners, featuring over 60 key displays under the theme "Together, We Achieve Progress for Everyone" [5] - The exhibits included flagship smartphones powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2, various AI glasses from partners like Xiaomi and Rokid, and the "Snapdragon XR Fantasy Journey" [5] - Qualcomm has already signed up for the 9th CIIE, promising to bring even richer collaborative results next year [5]

来源：EETOP 6figr 是一家提供 AI 驱动职业服务的平台型公司，全球大量高科技企业员工会在此分享自身实际薪酬信息。平台基于这些真实样本数据，汇总分析出各公 司相关职位的平均薪资水平。 以下截图是由EETOP选取的几家代表性并且有一定样本数量的芯片公司员工平均薪资统计情况。 英特尔薪资 性别 族裔 (intel.) 8124个已验证的个人资料 最后更新于2025年12月18日 23.1万美 7C 平均年总薪酬为189,000美元 203,000 202,000 美元 美元 英特尔员工平均收入为18.9万美元，主要在14.6万美元至51 万美元之间，基于8124个配置文件。 签约奖金 员工人数 巨大 7000美元 非二元性别 劈性 女性 △过去一年有46,173人被裁员。 男性每获得100美元，女性获得100美元 AMD薪酬 性别 E 族裔 994个已验证的档案 最后更新于2025年12月18日 21.7万美 21.1万美 平均年总薪酬为22.1万美元 7L 元 AMD员工平均年薪为22.1万美元，主要在17.1万美元至52.5 万美元之间，基于994个配置文件。 13.6万美 元 0 非二元性别 男性 ...

Core Insights - The communication industry is reassessing the foundational logic of the next-generation network as the standardization year for 6G approaches, with significant emphasis on the impact of AI and intelligent agents on future network forms [1][3] Group 1: Technological Evolution and Application Trends - The evolution of mobile communication has been driven by two main lines: continuous technological advancement and changing industry application trends [3] - The transition from 1G to 5G has seen a shift from voice communication to data-centric applications, with AI increasingly influencing the industry since the advent of 5G [3] - The integration of edge computing, intelligent agents, and robotics will be core drivers of 6G development, reshaping the capabilities of future networks [3] Group 2: Impact of AI on Interaction and Business Models - The rise of AI agents is fundamentally changing interaction methods, leading to a transformation in business models and traffic structures [4] - Qualcomm's expansion into various terminal layouts, including AI PCs, XR, wearables, and smart connected vehicles, positions these devices as critical data generation and processing nodes [6] Group 3: Traffic Demand and Structural Changes - Future networks are expected to shift from a "downlink-dominated" model to an "uplink-dominated" structure, driven by applications involving intelligent agents and XR [6] - Predictions indicate that global wireless communication traffic will grow 5 to 9 times from 2023 to 2033, with AI-related data expected to account for 33% of this traffic [6] Group 4: Key Technologies Supporting 6G Traffic Growth - To meet the increasing traffic demands, the industry is focusing on two core technological capabilities: massive MIMO and wider frequency spectrum bandwidth [7] - The introduction of the FR3 frequency band (approximately 7GHz–24GHz) aims to significantly enhance system capacity by expanding bandwidth from hundreds of megahertz to 400MHz or 500MHz [7] Group 5: AI's Role in Wireless Systems - AI is expected to play a crucial role in reducing operational costs and supporting new business models within wireless systems [9] - Qualcomm's collaboration with Nokia Bell Labs on wireless AI interoperability testing aims to enhance the cooperation of AI models between terminal and cloud environments [9] Group 6: Satellite Communication and Key Technologies - Satellite communication is becoming a necessary trend for achieving broader network coverage in 6G, with "space-ground integration" emerging as a key research direction [10] - Research on probabilistic amplitude shaping (PAS) is being conducted to improve performance in 6G, with potential gains of approximately 1.5dB in signal transmission [11] Group 7: Qualcomm's Leadership in 6G Development - Qualcomm has been recognized as a "6G R&D Pioneer" for its early investments and practices in 6G development, focusing on AI and integrated sensing innovations [12] - The company is actively advancing its technical layout for 6G, aiming for pre-commercial terminal readiness by 2028 and collaborating with the industry to promote the standardization process [13]