Chip stocks sinking as President Trump threatens an escalation of USChina trade tensions. And this just hours after China announced an antirust probe into US chip giant Qualcomm. Mackenzie Sagalis has more in today's tech check.Mac, help me straighten out all these headlines. So Courtney, Qualcomm shares are plunging down 5% as it finds itself in the crossfire of an escalating trade war between the US and China. One that is now dragging America's biggest tech giants into the fight.Beijing's latest blow, its ...

Core Viewpoint - The chip sector is experiencing significant declines due to escalating US-China trade tensions, particularly affecting major companies like Qualcomm and Nvidia [1][4]. Group 1: Qualcomm's Situation - Qualcomm shares have dropped by 5% amid the trade war, as it faces an antitrust probe from China's competition watchdog regarding its acquisition of Auto Talks [1][2]. - Nearly 50% of Qualcomm's sales are derived from companies based in China, raising concerns that ongoing tensions may lead Chinese customers to develop their own chips or switch to local competitors [3]. Group 2: Broader Industry Impact - The VANX semiconductor ETF has decreased by nearly 4%, with Nvidia and Qualcomm being the primary contributors to these losses, highlighting the vulnerability of American tech firms in the current geopolitical climate [5]. - China's recent actions include accusations against Nvidia for antitrust violations related to a past acquisition and restrictions on AI chip purchases from US suppliers, indicating a broader crackdown on American technology [4].

Joshua Valterar. Joshua, thank you so much for joining us. McKenzie just gave through ran through a lot of the headlines for us, and I'd love to get your reaction first on that on all the actions that the Trump administration is potentially putting on some of these chipmakers, most especially Qualcomm.Can you tell us what your read is. I know that's a buy, I believe, on your coverage list. >> Yeah, that's right.And thank you for having me on. Um, so I I think like there, listen, there's no way to spin it. i ...

Group 1 - China has initiated an antitrust investigation against Qualcomm, highlighting its monopolistic position in the mobile chip market, where it dominates nearly all major players except for Apple, Huawei, and Samsung [2][6] - Qualcomm's business model involves charging a royalty based on the entire device price rather than just the technology used, leading to significant costs for Chinese smartphone manufacturers, which often struggle with low profit margins [4][6] - The investigation aims to address the perceived unfairness of Qualcomm profiting from the Chinese smartphone market while simultaneously benefiting from U.S. sanctions against Huawei [6] Group 2 - China has implemented comprehensive export controls on rare earth materials, mirroring U.S. strategies against Chinese chips, effectively creating a full supply chain blockade [7][11] - The export restrictions cover all aspects of rare earth production, including technology, equipment, and finished products, requiring Chinese permission for any overseas transactions [7] - This move is seen as a direct response to U.S. actions and aims to leverage China's position in the rare earth market [11] Group 3 - China has introduced a special port service fee for U.S. flagged vessels, as a retaliatory measure against similar fees imposed by the U.S. on Chinese ships, indicating a tit-for-tat approach in trade relations [9][11] - This fee applies to all U.S. registered ships docking at Chinese ports, reflecting a broader strategy of reciprocal economic measures [9] Group 4 - China's advancements in domestic chip technology, including breakthroughs in DUV lithography machines and ongoing development of EUV machines, are positioning the country to reduce reliance on foreign technology [11][12] - Chinese companies like Alibaba, Xiaomi, NIO, and XPeng are developing their own competitive chip products, indicating a significant shift in the domestic tech landscape [11] - The decreasing dependency on U.S. imports, with shifts towards other countries for energy and agricultural products, further strengthens China's negotiating position in trade [12]

US-China Trade War & Tech Industry Impact - NASDAQ 下跌超过 15%，原因是美国总统在 Truth Social 上发帖称中国在稀土问题上变得充满敌意，而此前数小时，中国宣布对美国芯片巨头 Qualcomm 进行反垄断调查 [1] - Qualcomm 股价暴跌近 5%，原因是投资者消化了中美贸易战升级带来的附带损害 [2] - 中国正在对 Qualcomm 收购以色列公司 Auto Talks 的交易展开反垄断调查，该公司构建车辆通信技术，尽管该交易已于去年年底完成 [2] - 中国监管机构指责 Nvidia 2020 年收购 Melanox 的交易违反了反垄断法 [4] - 据英国《金融时报》报道，中国已禁止国内主要企业购买 Nvidia 的 AI 芯片 [4] - 美国总统威胁要取消与中国国家主席习近平本月的会晤，此前中国公布了对稀土矿物的出口限制，稀土矿物是国防系统和半导体的重要投入 [5] - 中国 AI 领导者，如阿里巴巴和百度，据报道在受到美国对 Nvidia 和 AMD 先进芯片的出口禁令数月后，加倍投资本土半导体 [5] - 美国芯片制造商正在成为两国之间更广泛贸易战中的谈判筹码 [13] Semiconductor Industry & Geopolitical Considerations - 关键问题是中国在半导体方面的自给自足程度，特别是在美国实施出口限制之后 [6][7] - 特朗普政府与供应商达成协议，允许在支付一定费用和分成收入后获得某些技术，之后北京方面禁止阿里巴巴等本地公司进口该技术，转而依赖华为的芯片 [7] - Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋一直积极游说，希望确保中国的技术基于美国架构 [9] - Nvidia 的商业模式在很大程度上依赖于在中国的销售，分析师正在试图预测如果无法进行这些出口，会对 Nvidia 产生什么影响 [11] - Nvidia 重新开放供应链的关键在于美国总统对此事的立场 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are escalating, particularly affecting the semiconductor industry, with Qualcomm facing an antitrust investigation in China and potential repercussions for its business operations [2][5][11]. Company Impact - Qualcomm's stock has dropped nearly 5% following the announcement of an antitrust probe into its acquisition of Auto Talks, indicating investor concern over the implications of the trade war [2][11]. - The investigation suggests that Qualcomm may have violated anti-monopoly rules, which could jeopardize its business relationships with major Chinese brands like Xiaomi [3][5]. - Nvidia is also under pressure, having been accused of breaching antitrust laws in China, and facing restrictions on domestic firms purchasing its AI chips [4][5]. Industry Dynamics - The trade war is prompting China to accelerate its efforts to become self-sufficient in semiconductor technology, with local companies like Alibaba reportedly increasing their reliance on domestic chip production [5][7]. - The situation highlights the strategic importance of semiconductor technology in the broader context of US-China relations, with chipmakers becoming critical negotiating tools in the trade conflict [12][13]. - The potential for Nvidia to reopen its supply chain to China is seen as a key factor in its future performance, with upcoming earnings reports expected to reflect the impact of these trade tensions [11][12].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones index falling by 1.02%, the S&P 500 index dropping over 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite index decreasing by more than 2% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index saw a decline of over 4%, marking its largest drop since August 27 [2] Sector Performance - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 4.7%, with notable declines in major semiconductor stocks: AMD down over 8%, ARM down over 7%, Micron Technology down over 6%, Nvidia down over 2%, ASML down over 3%, Qualcomm down over 4%, and Matson down nearly 6% [6] Commodity Market - Gold prices experienced a short-term increase, with London spot gold reported at $4020.22 per ounce and COMEX gold at $4027.7 per ounce [2]

Market Reaction - Major U.S. equities indexes experienced a sharp decline, erasing early gains after President Trump threatened "massive" tariffs on Chinese goods in response to China's rare earth export curbs [1][5] - The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all lost over 1% [1] Chip Industry Impact - Chip stocks, including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Arm (ARM), were among the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [2] - Nvidia (NVDA) shares also fell after reaching a new intraday record, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) down 4% [2] Company-Specific Developments - Qualcomm (QCOM) faced additional challenges as Chinese regulators investigated its acquisition of Autotalks for potential antitrust violations [3] - Mosaic (MOS) was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 due to production issues at two of its plants [3] - Levi Strauss (LEVI) shares dropped after the company indicated that tariffs would negatively impact current-quarter results [3] Other Notable Performances - PepsiCo (PEP) shares rose after reporting better-than-expected results driven by higher international demand and strong sales of healthier drinks in the U.S. [4][5] - Applied Digital (APLD) saw a significant increase in shares after beating earnings and revenue forecasts, aided by a new data center lease agreement with CoreWeave [4]

Core Insights - China is intensifying its scrutiny of US chip imports, launching an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm's acquisition of Autotalks and increasing customs checks on Nvidia processors [1][3][4] Qualcomm - Qualcomm's acquisition of Israeli chip maker Autotalks is under investigation by China's market regulator for potential antitrust violations [1][2] - Qualcomm's shares fell by 1.3% following the announcement of the investigation [1][14] - The company is cooperating with Chinese regulators and emphasizes its commitment to supporting its customers and partners [2] Nvidia - China's State Administration of Market Regulation previously claimed Nvidia violated antitrust laws with its acquisition of Mellanox, aimed at enhancing data center efficiency [3] - Reports indicate that China is encouraging domestic companies to cease orders for Nvidia chips, including variants designed to comply with US export restrictions [7] - Nvidia's H20 and RTX Pro 6000D chips are considered less advanced versions tailored for compliance with US controls [12] Customs and Trade Policies - China has deployed additional customs officials at ports to inspect semiconductor shipments, aiming to identify smuggled advanced chips that violate US export curbs [4][13] - Starting October 14, China will charge US ships docking fees at its ports, coinciding with the implementation of US port fees on China [6] - Chinese authorities are reportedly working to triple domestic production of advanced semiconductors next year to reduce reliance on Nvidia [17]

Core Insights - Qualcomm shares have underperformed compared to major tech stocks in 2025, with a decline following news of an antitrust investigation by Chinese regulators regarding its acquisition of Autotalks [2][5]. Group 1: Antitrust Investigation - China's State Administration for Market Regulation has opened an investigation into Qualcomm's June acquisition of Autotalks, focusing on whether Qualcomm unlawfully withheld details about the deal [2][5]. - The investigation highlights ongoing tensions that could impact U.S.-China trade relations, potentially affecting Qualcomm's operations in the region and investor sentiment [3][4]. Group 2: Market Performance - Qualcomm's shares fell over 4% in midday trading following the news of the investigation, despite a 3% gain since the beginning of the year, which is below the performance of other tech stocks benefiting from increased demand for AI [5].