Core Insights - Seagate reported a revenue of $9.097 billion for the fiscal year ending June 27, 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 38.86% compared to $6.551 billion in 2024 [1] - The GAAP gross margin and operating margin for the fiscal year reached 35.2% and 20.8%, respectively, reflecting an increase of 11.8 and 13.9 percentage points [1] - In the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025, Seagate's revenue was $2.444 billion, a year-over-year increase of 29.52% [1] Financial Performance - Seagate's total revenue for the fiscal year was $9.097 billion, up from $6.551 billion in the previous year, marking a significant growth [1] - The fourth fiscal quarter revenue was $2.444 billion, showing strong performance compared to the same quarter last year [1] - The company achieved record gross margins and non-GAAP earnings per share at the upper end of guidance [5] Product and Technology Development - In the fourth fiscal quarter, Seagate shipped a total hard drive capacity of 162EB, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 13% [3] - The average capacity per drive reached 13TB, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous quarter [3] - Seagate is advancing its next-generation HAMR technology platform, Mozaic 4+, which aims for a single drive capacity of 44TB, with initial production planned for the second half of 2026 [3] Market Demand and Strategy - The strong performance in the fourth quarter highlights Seagate's commitment to profit growth, driven by structural improvements and sustained demand for high-capacity drives from cloud customers [5] - The company is focused on meeting the growing data storage needs in cloud and edge computing scenarios through its high-density HAMR technology [5] - Seagate expresses confidence in its ability to create long-term value for customers and shareholders [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales revenue for the quarter was $18.3 million, with production maintained at 25 terajoules per day, totaling 2.3 petajoules [9][11] - Realized prices for gas and condensate decreased due to US-denominated contracts and foreign exchange impacts [9] - Available liquidity includes cash of $51.6 million and undrawn debt of $76 million [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Development expenditure for the South Eregala peaking power plant was $21 million, with a compression project costing $1.7 million expected to be online in January [10][11] - The integrated power solution at South Eregala is progressing well, with a target to go live by October 1, 2026 [6][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is positioned to address a looming gas gap in the Western Australia energy market, with opportunities for gas-fired power generation [20] - The government has endorsed the need for additional gas supply, indicating a favorable environment for the company's operations [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The strategic placement of $88 million by Carnarvon aims to support the development of key projects, including West Eregala and South Eregala [8][15] - The company plans to become the first fully integrated gas-to-power provider in Australia, unlocking higher margin opportunities [21] - Focus areas include finalizing the West Eregala project, expanding South Eregala, and commencing exploration at Ocean Hill [16][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting the October 1, 2026 deadline for capacity credits, with ongoing discussions with Western Power to finalize costs [30][32] - The company is committed to ensuring that development projects are fully funded before proceeding with exploration activities [33][66] Other Important Information - The company has received $51.6 million from the first tranche of funding, which is crucial for ongoing projects [11][62] - The strategic review highlighted the need for additional funding to support the company's growth and operational plans [60][62] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the cost increases behind the Western Power costs? - There has been a 10% increase in directly controllable costs, with ongoing discussions with Western Power to clarify total integration costs [24][25] Question: Are there any delays to the project? - The first engines are scheduled to arrive in September, and the company remains confident in meeting the October 1, 2026 deadline [30] Question: What options are available to defer payment for the Western Power portion? - Discussions with Western Power are ongoing regarding potential joint funding and tariff recovery options [31][32] Question: Why is the drilling for Ocean Hill two only planned for the latter part of next year? - The company aims to ensure revenue from South Eregala is secured before proceeding with Ocean Hill drilling [33] Question: What is the expected field decline profile for Wollering? - If additional gas is not found, the company can purchase gas on the market to meet contractual obligations [45] Question: What is the current status of the West Eregala JV? - The company is working with its joint venture partner to finalize steps required to reach FID in the second half of next year [54][58]

Financial Highlights and Business Overview [Fiscal Q4 and Full Year 2025 Performance](index=1&type=section&id=Fiscal%20Q4%20and%20Full%20Year%202025%20Performance) Seagate reported strong financial results for fiscal Q4 and the full year 2025, driven by a 30% year-over-year revenue increase in the fourth quarter and significant margin expansion. The performance was bolstered by strong demand from cloud customers for high-capacity drives and structural business enhancements - The company highlighted a strong FQ4 with a **30% year-over-year revenue increase**, **record gross margin**, and **non-GAAP EPS at the top of the guidance range**, attributed to structural business enhancements and strong demand from cloud customers[2](index=2&type=chunk) - Seagate is continuing to execute its ramp plans for areal density-leading HAMR products to meet growing customer demand for mass data storage in cloud and edge markets[3](index=3&type=chunk) Fiscal Q4 2025 Financial Performance (GAAP vs. Non-GAAP) | Metric | GAAP FQ4 2025 | Non-GAAP FQ4 2025 | GAAP FQ4 2024 | Non-GAAP FQ4 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Revenue ($M)** | $2,444 | $2,444 | $1,887 | $1,887 | | **Gross Margin** | 37.4% | 37.9% | 31.8% | 30.9% | | **Operating Margin** | 23.2% | 26.2% | 16.6% | 17.3% | | **Net Income ($M)** | $488 | $556 | $513 | $222 | | **Diluted EPS** | $2.24 | $2.59 | $2.39 | $1.05 | Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Performance (GAAP vs. Non-GAAP) | Metric | GAAP FY 2025 | Non-GAAP FY 2025 | GAAP FY 2024 | Non-GAAP FY 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Revenue ($M)** | $9,097 | $9,097 | $6,551 | $6,551 | | **Gross Margin** | 35.2% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 25.5% | | **Operating Margin** | 20.8% | 23.4% | 6.9% | 10.3% | | **Net Income ($M)** | $1,469 | $1,733 | $335 | $272 | | **Diluted EPS** | $6.77 | $8.10 | $1.58 | $1.29 | [Cash Flow, Capital Return, and Balance Sheet](index=2&type=section&id=Cash%20Flow,%20Capital%20Return,%20and%20Balance%20Sheet) The company demonstrated robust cash generation in FY 2025, with $1.1 billion in operating cash flow and $818 million in free cash flow. This supported shareholder returns of $600 million via dividends and a significant debt reduction of $684 million, strengthening the balance sheet Cash Flow and Capital Management (FY 2025) | Metric | Amount ($M) | | :--- | :--- | | Cash flow from operations | $1,100 | | Free cash flow | $818 | | Returned to shareholders (dividends) | $600 | - The company strengthened its balance sheet by reducing total debt by approximately **$684 million** during fiscal year 2025, ending the year with total debt of **$5.0 billion**[7](index=7&type=chunk) - The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of **$0.72 per share**, payable on October 9, 2025[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Business Outlook (FQ1 2026 Guidance)](index=2&type=section&id=Business%20Outlook%20(FQ1%202026%20Guidance)) Seagate provides a positive outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, forecasting revenue of $2.50 billion (±$150 million) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.30 (±$0.20). This guidance incorporates the estimated impact of the Pillar Two global minimum tax framework Guidance for Fiscal First Quarter 2026 | Metric | Guidance Range | | :--- | :--- | | **Revenue** | $2.50 billion ± $150 million | | **Non-GAAP Diluted EPS** | $2.30 ± $0.20 | - The FQ1 2026 guidance includes the estimated impact of the Pillar Two global minimum tax framework, the net dilutive impact from the 2028 Exchangeable Senior Notes, and minimal expected impact from current global tariff policies[13](index=13&type=chunk) - A reconciliation of non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance to the comparable GAAP measure is not provided, as material items that may impact these measures are out of the company's control and cannot be reasonably predicted[12](index=12&type=chunk) Consolidated Financial Statements (GAAP) [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=4&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of June 27, 2025, Seagate's total assets increased to $8.02 billion from $7.74 billion a year prior. Total liabilities decreased to $8.48 billion from $9.23 billion, leading to a significant improvement in the total shareholders' deficit, which narrowed from -$1.49 billion to -$453 million Balance Sheet Summary (in millions) | Account | June 27, 2025 | June 28, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Current Assets** | $3,653 | $3,332 | | **Total Assets** | $8,023 | $7,739 | | **Total Current Liabilities** | $2,648 | $3,099 | | **Total Liabilities** | $8,476 | $9,230 | | **Total Shareholders' Deficit** | ($453) | ($1,491) | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=5&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) For fiscal year 2025, Seagate's revenue grew to $9.10 billion from $6.55 billion in FY 2024. This top-line growth, combined with improved cost management, resulted in a substantial increase in GAAP net income to $1.47 billion, up from $335 million in the prior year Statement of Operations Summary (in millions, except per share data) | Account | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Revenue** | $9,097 | $6,551 | | **Income from operations** | $1,890 | $452 | | **Net income** | $1,469 | $335 | | **Diluted net income per share** | $6.77 | $1.58 | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=6&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) In fiscal year 2025, the company generated $1.08 billion in net cash from operating activities, an increase from $918 million in FY 2024. Net cash used in financing activities was $1.27 billion, primarily due to debt redemption, while investing activities used $276 million. This resulted in a net decrease in cash of $467 million for the year Statement of Cash Flows Summary (in millions) | Activity | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net cash provided by operating activities** | $1,083 | $918 | | **Net cash (used in) provided by investing activities** | ($276) | $126 | | **Net cash used in financing activities** | ($1,274) | ($473) | | **(Decrease) increase in cash** | ($467) | $572 | | **Cash at end of year** | $893 | $1,360 | Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations [Use and Explanation of Non-GAAP Measures](index=7&type=section&id=Use%20and%20Explanation%20of%20Non-GAAP%20Measures) Seagate uses non-GAAP financial measures to evaluate its core operating performance by excluding items it believes are not indicative of ongoing operations, such as share-based compensation, restructuring costs, and acquisition-related charges. These measures are intended to provide investors with a supplemental view of the company's performance - Management uses non-GAAP results to assess performance, allocate resources, and plan for future periods, as they are believed to exclude items not part of ongoing operations and thus provide a better understanding of core operating results[25](index=25&type=chunk)[26](index=26&type=chunk) - Key non-GAAP adjustments include the exclusion of share-based compensation, restructuring costs, acquisition-related charges, purchase order cancellation fees, and strategic investment gains/losses[36](index=36&type=chunk)[39](index=39&type=chunk)[40](index=40&type=chunk)[41](index=41&type=chunk) - Free Cash Flow is defined as net cash from operating activities less capital expenditures. Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, further adjusted for non-core items. These are used to assess liquidity and comply with debt covenants[46](index=46&type=chunk)[47](index=47&type=chunk) [GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations](index=8&type=section&id=GAAP%20to%20Non-GAAP%20Reconciliations) The company provides detailed reconciliations from GAAP to non-GAAP results. For FY 2025, key adjustments included adding back $200 million in share-based compensation and $38 million in restructuring charges to derive non-GAAP income from operations of $2.13 billion and non-GAAP net income of $1.73 billion [Gross Profit and Operating Income Reconciliation](index=8&type=section&id=Gross%20Profit%20and%20Operating%20Income%20Reconciliation) For fiscal year 2025, Non-GAAP Gross Profit was $3.26 billion (35.8% margin) compared to GAAP Gross Profit of $3.20 billion (35.2% margin). Non-GAAP Income from Operations was $2.13 billion (23.4% margin) versus GAAP Income from Operations of $1.89 billion (20.8% margin), with primary adjustments being share-based compensation and restructuring charges FY 2025 GAAP vs. Non-GAAP Operating Metrics (in millions) | Metric | GAAP | Non-GAAP | Key Adjustments | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Gross Profit** | $3,200 | $3,255 | Share-based compensation ($51), Restructuring ($13), Purchase order fees (-$9) | | **Gross Margin** | 35.2% | 35.8% | - | | **Operating Income** | $1,890 | $2,127 | Share-based compensation ($200), Restructuring ($38) | | **Operating Margin** | 20.8% | 23.4% | - | [Net Income and EPS Reconciliation](index=9&type=section&id=Net%20Income%20and%20EPS%20Reconciliation) In fiscal year 2025, Seagate's GAAP Net Income was $1.47 billion ($6.77 per diluted share). After adjustments, including adding back $200 million for share-based compensation and $53 million for strategic investment losses, Non-GAAP Net Income was $1.73 billion ($8.10 per diluted share) FY 2025 GAAP vs. Non-GAAP Net Income & EPS | Metric | GAAP | Non-GAAP | Key Adjustments ($M) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Income ($M)** | $1,469 | $1,733 | Share-based compensation ($200), Strategic investment losses ($53), Restructuring ($38) | | **Diluted EPS** | $6.77 | $8.10 | - | [Free Cash Flow and EBITDA Reconciliation](index=10&type=section&id=Free%20Cash%20Flow%20and%20EBITDA%20Reconciliation) For fiscal year 2025, Free Cash Flow was calculated at $818 million, derived from $1.08 billion in net cash from operating activities minus $265 million in capital expenditures. Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA for the last twelve months totaled $2.35 billion FY 2025 Free Cash Flow Calculation (in millions) | Metric | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities | $1,083 | | Less: Acquisition of property, equipment | ($265) | | **Free Cash Flow** | **$818** | - Last Twelve Months (LTM) Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA was **$2,349 million**[34](index=34&type=chunk)

Group 1 - Seagate reported $2.44 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2025, a year-over-year increase of 29.5% [1] - The EPS for the same period was $2.59, compared to $1.05 a year ago, indicating significant growth [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.41 billion, resulting in a surprise of +1.61% [1] Group 2 - Seagate's EPS surprise was +5.28%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $2.46 [1] - The company's shares returned +4.3% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.6% change [3] - Seagate currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential for near-term outperformance [3] Group 3 - Capacity Shipped - Mass Capacity was 150.90 EB, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of 152.01 EB [4] - Total Capacity Shipped was 162.50 EB, compared to the average estimate of 162.14 EB [4] - Revenue from HDD- Mass Capacity was $2.01 billion, matching the two-analyst average estimate and reflecting a year-over-year change of +40% [4] Group 4 - Revenue from HDD- Legacy was $270 million, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of $245.91 million, but showing a year-over-year decline of -6.9% [4] - Capacity Shipped - Legacy was 11.50 EB, surpassing the two-analyst average estimate of 10.14 EB [4]

Seagate (STX) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.59 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.46 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.05 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non- recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +5.28%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this electronic storage maker would post earnings of $1.76 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.9, delivering a surprise of +7.95%. Over the last four quarters, th ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record gross margin levels with a non-GAAP gross margin of 37.9%, up 170 basis points sequentially [3][4] - Revenue for June reached $2.44 billion, a 13% sequential increase and a 30% year-over-year increase [3][4] - For fiscal year 2025, revenue grew nearly 40% to $9.1 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.10 [4][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hard drive revenue increased by 14% sequentially, reaching $2.3 billion, driven by nearline cloud sales [4][5] - Mass capacity revenue exceeded $2 billion, up 15% sequentially and 40% year-over-year, with shipments of 151 exabytes [5][6] - Nearline shipments into cloud and edge data centers represented 91% of mass capacity volume, with a 14% sequential increase [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The data center market accounted for approximately 75% of fiscal year 2025 revenue, indicating strong demand from cloud and enterprise customers [7] - The company plans to focus on two main areas: data center and edge IoT, reflecting the AI-driven market [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is ramping HAMR-based MOSEIK products and has qualified three major cloud service providers [6][10] - The strategic focus is on enhancing profitability and optimizing cash generation through a structurally changed business model [13] - The company anticipates capital expenditures to be within the target range of 4% to 6% of revenue for fiscal year 2026 [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustained demand strength for high-capacity nearline drives, supporting revenue and margin expansion [11][12] - The company expects September revenue to be in the range of $2.5 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year improvement [12] - Management noted that the visibility gained through their B2O strategy instills confidence in future demand [11][12] Other Important Information - Free cash flow nearly doubled to $425 million in June, with a commitment to return nearly 75% of free cash flow to shareholders [10][11] - The company reduced its debt balance by approximately $150 million during the quarter, exiting with a gross debt of about $5 billion [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you confirm the implied gross margin guidance for September? - Management indicated that the estimate was significantly lower than what is implied in the guidance, expecting higher gross and operating margins than modeled [18][19] Question: What are the trends in AI inference edge demand? - Management noted strong demand for video properties in the cloud and various applications at the edge, indicating growth in data storage needs [22][24] Question: How is the HAMR contribution expected to change in the coming quarters? - Management confirmed steady growth in HAMR and expects a positive impact on gross margins as higher capacity drives are ramped up [35][36] Question: What is the outlook for revenue growth and capacity ramp? - Management stated that demand is strong and above supply, with guidance based on production capabilities and ongoing qualifications [44][46] Question: How does the company view the competitive landscape with NAND? - Management emphasized that the interface between NAND and HDD remains stable, with a strong value proposition for mass data storage in cloud markets [121][122] Question: Can you provide insights on gross margin drivers for September? - Management indicated that improvements would come from higher HAMR volume, better pricing, and cost reductions per terabyte [129][130]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Seagate reported June revenue of $2,440 million, up 13% sequentially and 30% year over year [2][3] - Non-GAAP gross margin expanded by 170 basis points sequentially to 37.9% [2][7] - Non-GAAP operating margin increased by 270 basis points to 26.2% [2] - For fiscal 2025, revenue grew nearly 40% to $9,100 million, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.10 [3][11] - Non-GAAP net income was $556 million, resulting in non-GAAP EPS of $2.59 based on a diluted share count of approximately 215 million shares [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hard drive revenue reached $2,300 million, a 14% sequential increase, driven by nearline cloud sales [3][4] - Mass capacity revenue exceeded $2,000 million, up 15% sequentially and 40% year on year [4] - Nearline shipments into cloud and edge data centers accounted for 91% of mass capacity volume, with shipments of 137 exabytes, up 14% sequentially and 52% year on year [4] - Sales from the legacy market totaled $270 million, up 6% sequentially, while revenue from other product lines increased 3% sequentially to $163 million [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data center markets accounted for about 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue, including nearline products sold to cloud and enterprise customers [6] - The company plans to focus on two main areas: data center and edge IoT, reflecting the AI-driven market [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Seagate is ramping HAMR-based MOSEIK products and building customer momentum, with three major cloud service providers qualified on these products [5] - The company aims to maintain capital discipline, with anticipated capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 within the target range of 4% to 6% of revenue [10] - The strategic focus is on driving growth, enhancing profitability, and optimizing cash generation, supported by a structurally changed business model and leading technology roadmap [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustained demand strength for high-capacity nearline drives, supporting revenue and margin expansion [11] - The company anticipates September revenue in the range of $2,500 million, reflecting a 15% improvement year over year [12] - Management noted that the global minimum tax rate will impact future earnings, with a projected non-GAAP tax rate of 16% [12][131] Other Important Information - Free cash flow nearly doubled in June to $425 million, with a commitment to return nearly 75% of free cash flow to shareholders [10][11] - Cash and cash equivalents increased 9% sequentially to $2,200 million, with a gross debt of approximately $5,000 million [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you confirm the implied gross margin guidance for September? - Management indicated that the estimate was significantly lower than what is implied in the guidance, expecting higher revenue and margins than modeled [18][20] Question: What are the trends in AI inference edge demand? - Management noted strong demand for video properties in the cloud and various applications at the edge, indicating growth in data storage needs [24][25] Question: How is the HAMR contribution expected to change in the coming quarters? - Management confirmed steady growth in HAMR and expects a positive impact on gross margins as higher capacity drives are ramped up [34][35] Question: What is the outlook for revenue growth and capacity ramp? - Management stated that demand is strong and above supply, with guidance based on production capabilities and ongoing qualifications for new products [41][42] Question: How will the global minimum tax impact financials? - Management confirmed that the global minimum tax will affect both GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates, with a similar impact expected [131]

Financial Performance - Q4FY25 revenue reached $2.44 billion, a 30% increase year-over-year[6] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q4FY25 was 37.9%, up approximately 700 bps year-over-year[6, 7] - Non-GAAP operating margin for Q4FY25 increased to 26.2%, up approximately 890 bps year-over-year[6, 7] - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4FY25 expanded to $2.59[6, 7] - Free cash flow for Q4FY25 nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter to $425 million[7] - FY25 revenue increased 39% year-over-year, with gross profit nearly doubling and operating profit more than tripling[7] Market and Technology - Hard drive revenue reached $2.3 billion, up 14% quarter-over-quarter[12] - Mass capacity revenue topped $2.0 billion, up 40% year-over-year[12] - Nearline shipments were 137 exabytes, up 52% year-over-year[12] - Average capacity per drive increased 3% quarter-over-quarter to 13 TB[6, 17] Guidance - Q1FY26 revenue is projected to be $2.50 billion ± $150 million[20] - Q1FY26 non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the mid-to-high twenties percentage of revenue[20] - Q1FY26 non-GAAP diluted earnings per share is guided at $2.30 ± $0.20[20]

Group 1 - Analysts project Seagate (STX) will announce quarterly earnings of $2.46 per share, a 134.3% increase year over year [1] - Revenues are expected to reach $2.41 billion, reflecting a 27.5% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.5% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that 'Revenue by Product Line- HDD- Legacy' will be $245.91 million, a decrease of 15.2% year over year [5] - The estimate for 'Revenue by Product Line- HDD- Mass Capacity' is projected at $2.01 billion, an increase of 39.6% from the prior-year quarter [5] - The consensus estimate for 'Capacity Shipped - Total' and 'Capacity Shipped - Legacy' remains N/A, with no prior year figures available [6] Group 3 - Over the past month, Seagate shares have returned +6.7%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.9% change [6] - Seagate currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance in the near future [6]

Core Viewpoint - Seagate is expected to report fiscal Q4 earnings with no growth in earnings but a significant increase in sales, indicating a mixed outlook for the company [1][2]. Financial Performance - Analysts predict Seagate will announce earnings of $2.43 per share on sales of $2.42 billion, compared to $2.44 per share and $1.89 billion in the previous year, reflecting a 28% rise in sales [1]. - The company forecasts adjusted EPS for Q4 to range between $2.20 and $2.60, with revenue expected between $2.25 billion and $2.55 billion [2]. - Seagate's market capitalization currently stands at $32 billion, with total revenue over the past twelve months amounting to $8.5 billion, and operational profits of $1.6 billion, resulting in a net income of $1.5 billion [2]. Historical Trends - Historical data shows that Seagate's stock has risen 55% of the time in the one day following earnings announcements, with a median increase of 6.1% and maximum one-day positive returns reaching 12% [1][6]. - Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns, leading to a positive return rate of approximately 55% [6]. - This positive return rate increases to 64% when considering data from the last three years [6]. Trading Strategies - Two strategies are suggested for traders: position before the earnings release based on historical chances or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings [3]. - A relatively lower-risk strategy involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, allowing traders to make informed decisions based on historical data [7].