智通财经4月14日电，部分电子产品关税豁免后，美股计算机硬件制造商盘前上涨。戴尔上涨6.8%，惠 普上涨6.3%，希捷上涨4.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The HDD glass substrate industry is facing challenges due to the rapid growth of SSDs, leading to a shrinking market for HDD glass substrates, which is projected to decline from $8.87 billion in 2024 to $5.53 billion by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -5.70% from 2025 to 2031 [13]. Industry Status - The production of HDD glass substrates is highly concentrated, with Hoya being the sole manufacturer, operating three production bases in Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos) [2]. - The HDD industry is mature but is experiencing a decline in demand due to competition from SSDs, particularly in consumer applications like laptops, while still maintaining strong demand in data centers and enterprise storage [3]. Technological Advancements - Continuous improvements in glass substrate manufacturing technology, especially in surface treatment and smoothness, are enabling higher density storage solutions [4]. - New technologies such as MRAM (Magnetoresistive Random Access Memory) and HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) are being developed to support advanced storage media and heads [4][5]. Market Trends - The demand for higher density storage is driving the development of glass substrates, particularly with the support of HAMR and MAMR (Microwave-Assisted Magnetic Recording) technologies [5]. - The HDD market is expected to maintain stable demand in the medium to long term, especially in cloud services and data centers that require large-capacity, low-cost storage solutions [8][19]. Competitive Landscape - The rise of SSDs is intensifying competition, prompting HDD manufacturers to innovate with new technologies and materials to enhance market competitiveness [6]. - The production process for HDDs is moving towards greater automation and intelligence, utilizing AI and big data analytics to optimize production efficiency and yield [7]. Application Segmentation - Data centers are the primary application for HDD glass substrates, projected to account for 60.30% of global market revenue in 2024 [19]. - While HDDs remain relevant in enterprise storage, they are gradually being replaced by SSDs in consumer electronics due to advantages in speed, shock resistance, and power efficiency [9].

Company Overview - Seagate's shares increased by 11.7% to close at $74.29, following a significant trading volume and a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump, contrasting with a 23.5% loss over the past four weeks [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from expanding momentum in mass capacity storage, which is a major revenue driver, supported by strengthening nearline demand from global cloud customers and improvements in enterprise and OEM markets [2] Financial Performance - Seagate is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.75 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 430.3%, with revenues projected at $2.13 billion, up 28.7% from the previous year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may not sustain without trends in earnings estimate revisions [4] Industry Context - Seagate operates within the Zacks Computer - Integrated Systems industry, where another company, Agilysys, saw a 10.9% increase in its stock price, although it has returned -12.7% over the past month [4] - Agilysys' consensus EPS estimate has changed by +4.8% to $0.26, representing a year-over-year decrease of 18.8%, and it currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses significant changes in the tech sector since September, highlighting events like CES and the introduction of DeepSeek's R1 generative AI model [1] - The author emphasizes a bullish investment strategy focused on companies with strong fundamentals, particularly in revenue and earnings growth, while also considering market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The author has a background in the investment industry, influenced by family experience, which shapes their analytical approach [1] - The analysis style includes fundamental and sentiment analysis, with a preference for identifying opportunities across various industries [1]

Company Overview - Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is positioned to benefit from strong momentum in mass capacity, which is a significant contributor to its revenues [1] - Mass capacity revenues increased by 79% year over year and 9% sequentially, driven by robust cloud demand [1] Nearline Revenue Growth - Nearline revenues nearly doubled in Q2 of fiscal 2025 compared to the previous year, reflecting a 60% growth for 2024 [2] - This growth is attributed to strong demand from cloud service providers and Enterprise/OEM clients, aligning with a 50% increase in cloud capital expenditures by customers in 2024 [2] Cloud and AI Integration - Cloud service providers are increasingly focusing on AI application development and cloud infrastructure deployment, with HDDs expected to play a crucial role in this transition [3] - Seagate anticipates a rise in HDD demand as these trends continue [3] Revenue Projections - Management forecasts Q3 fiscal 2025 revenues to be around $2.1 billion (+/- $150 million), with an estimate of $2,140.1 million [4] - Strong cloud demand is expected to mitigate seasonal declines in other markets, despite supply chain challenges potentially impacting revenues by $200 million [4] Product Innovations - Seagate has ramped up production of its 24-28 terabyte PMR drives, which are now the top-selling product line [6] - The company is scaling up production of HAMR-based Mozaic products and has achieved significant milestones with capacities up to 36 terabytes [7] Competitive Landscape - The data storage industry is experiencing intense competition, which could lead to pricing pressures affecting margin performance [8] - Seagate faces competition from companies like Western Digital Corporation (WDC), NetApp Inc (NTAP), and Pure Storage, Inc (PSTG) in both HDD and SSD markets [9] Competitor Insights - Western Digital has separated its HDD and Flash businesses into independent companies, focusing on innovation in storage technologies [10] - NetApp is seeing strong demand for its all-flash portfolio, with a reported annualized net revenue run rate of $3.8 billion, up 10% year over year [12] - Pure Storage reported an 11% revenue increase to $879.8 million, driven by record sales across its product offerings [13]

Core Viewpoint - Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is currently undervalued compared to its peers and the broader market, presenting a potential investment opportunity [1][2]. Valuation Comparison - STX is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 2.05X, significantly lower than the Zacks Computer & Technology sector's 6.53X and the Zacks Computer – Integrated Systems industry's 3.27X [1]. - Compared to peers like IBM (3.63X), AMD (5.54X), and Agilysys (7.14X), STX's valuation appears attractive [2]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, STX stock has increased by 14.3%, while the industry has declined by 2.8% and the S&P 500 has grown by 22.2% [3]. - The stock closed at $99.21, which is 14% lower than its 52-week high of $115.32 [3]. Growth Drivers - Strong demand for mass capacity, particularly nearline products, has led to a 79% year-over-year revenue increase in mass capacity [6]. - Nearline revenues nearly doubled in the fiscal second quarter, reflecting a 60% growth forecast for 2024, driven by cloud service providers and enterprise clients [7]. - Cloud capital expenditures are expected to grow by approximately 50% in 2024, supporting demand for nearline products [8]. - The adoption of AI applications is anticipated to increase HDD demand as CSPs develop cloud infrastructure [9]. - Long-term growth is supported by STX's HAMR technology, which is expected to meet rising exabyte demand and enhance profitability [10][11]. Financial Outlook - STX projects third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues of $2.1 billion, with non-GAAP earnings expected to be $1.7 per share [14]. - Non-GAAP operating expenses are anticipated to be $290 million, with operating margins expected to grow in the low-20s percentage range [15]. Challenges - Seasonal declines in the VIA and legacy markets, along with supply constraints, are expected to impact revenue by approximately $200 million [18]. - STX has a relatively high debt level, with long-term debt at $5.676 billion against cash and cash equivalents of $1.239 billion [19]. - The company faces competition from HDD and SSD manufacturers, as well as from companies offering storage subsystems [20]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have revised earnings estimates downward, with a 13.2% decrease for the current quarter and a 4.2% decrease for the next [21]. - The current year earnings estimate has been revised down by 2.8% to $7.60 per share [21]. Investment Strategy - Despite robust performance and growth drivers, concerns over supply chain issues, high debt, and competition suggest a cautious approach [22]. - Holding STX stock is recommended as a prudent strategy to benefit from its industry position while managing external risks [23].

Group 1 - Chip stocks are experiencing significant challenges in 2025 due to the emergence of China's DeepSeek AI models, which may not require advanced Nvidia chips for developing highly functional large language models (LLMs) [1] - Nvidia has been a dominant player in the chip market, but the recent developments indicate a potential shift in the competitive landscape [1] - Gary Alexander, with extensive experience in technology and investment, has been actively contributing insights on the evolving themes in the industry since 2017 [1]

Group 1: Company Performance - Seagate reported Q2 earnings with net sales of $2.3 billion, a 50% year-over-year increase, driven by a rebound in storage demand [1] - The company's gross margin improved from 23.3% in Q2 2024 to 34.9% in Q2 2025, while operating margin expanded from 8.0% to 21.0% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) surged to $1.55 from $(0.09) over the same period [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Seagate stock has risen 30% since early January 2024, outperforming the S&P 500's 28% increase during the same period [2] - The stock has experienced significant volatility over the past four years, with returns of 88% in 2021, -51% in 2022, 69% in 2023, and 4% in 2024 [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Seagate is focusing on Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology, shipping 30 TB hard disks, which positions the company for growth amid increasing demand for high-capacity drives [3] - Revenue is expected to grow 40% year-over-year to $9.2 billion in 2025, with a valuation estimate of $115 per share, reflecting a 6% upside from current levels [4] - Analysts have an average price estimate of $123 for Seagate, indicating nearly 13% upside potential [4]

Revenue and Gross Margin - Revenue for the December 2024 quarter was $2.3 billion, with a gross margin of 34.9% and operating cash flow of $221 million[122] - Revenue increased by $157 million compared to the September 2024 quarter, driven by higher demand for nearline products and favorable pricing actions[126] - Gross margin for the December 2024 quarter increased by 2 percentage points compared to the September 2024 quarter, primarily due to favorable product mix and cost efficiencies[129] - Gross margin for the December 2024 quarter increased by 12 percentage points compared to the December 2023 quarter, driven by favorable product mix, pricing actions, and the absence of $36 million in factory underutilization charges[130] - Revenue for the six months ended December 27, 2024, increased by $1.5 billion compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to higher demand for nearline products and favorable pricing actions[127] Product Shipments and Demand - The company shipped 151 exabytes of HDD storage capacity in the December 2024 quarter, with mass capacity drives accounting for 140 exabytes[126] - The company anticipates temporary supply constraints in the March quarter due to resolved production challenges, but expects continued growth in HDD storage demand driven by Generative AI applications[123] Sales Incentives and Warranty Costs - Sales incentive programs accounted for 14% of gross revenue in the December 2024 quarter, compared to 13% in the September 2024 quarter and 18% in the December 2023 quarter[128] - Warranty costs related to new shipments were 0.7% of revenue in the December 2024 quarter, consistent with the September 2024 quarter and down from 0.9% in the December 2023 quarter[132] Expenses - Product development expenses increased by $3 million in the December 2024 quarter compared to the September 2024 quarter, primarily due to higher compensation and employee benefits[133] - Product development expenses increased by $23 million in the December 2024 quarter compared to the December 2023 quarter, primarily due to a $24 million increase in compensation and other employee benefits[134] - Marketing and administrative expenses increased by $31 million in the December 2024 quarter compared to the December 2023 quarter, primarily due to a $26 million increase in compensation and other employee benefits[137] - Other expense, net increased by $51 million in the December 2024 quarter compared to the September 2024 quarter, primarily due to a $50 million increase in net loss from certain investments[140] Cash and Financial Obligations - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by $120 million from June 28, 2024 to December 27, 2024, primarily due to $295 million in dividends paid to shareholders and $139 million in capital expenditures[146] - The company has $1.5 billion available for borrowing under its senior unsecured revolving credit facility as of December 27, 2024[148] - The company has unconditional purchase obligations of approximately $900 million as of December 27, 2024, with $810 million expected to be paid within one year[156] - Future principal payment obligation on long-term debt is $5.7 billion as of December 27, 2024, with $479 million due within one year[158] - The company accrued a settlement penalty of $300 million related to BIS' allegations of violations of the U.S. EAR, with $60 million expected to be paid within one year[159] - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share, payable on April 2, 2025[160] - The company expects capital expenditures to be higher in fiscal year 2025 compared to fiscal year 2024[162] Investments and Financial Instruments - The company has $531 million in floating rate money market funds, time deposits, and certificates of deposit with an average interest rate of 4.53%[169] - The company holds $5,729 million in fixed rate debt obligations with an average interest rate of 5.64%, maturing in various years up to 2029 and beyond[169] - The company has foreign currency forward exchange contracts with a total notional amount of $280 million, including $167 million in Singapore Dollars, $66 million in Thai Baht, $31 million in Chinese Renminbi, and $16 million in British Pound Sterling[173] - The company uses Total Return Swaps (TRS) to manage equity market risks associated with its non-qualified deferred compensation plan liabilities, paying a floating rate based on SOFR plus an interest rate spread[175]

Analyst Background - Michael Del Monte is a buy-side equity analyst with over 5 years of industry experience and a decade in professional services across various sectors including O&G, OFS, Midstream, Industrials, Information Technology, EPC Services, and consumer discretionary [1] - The analyst employs a macro-value-oriented approach to investment analysis, leveraging cross-industry insights to make investment recommendations [1] Analyst's Position - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in the shares of STX, ORCL, DELL, and HPE through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [2] - The article reflects the analyst's personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation or business relationships with the mentioned companies [2]