华福证券 啤酒 2024年04月29日 公 司 青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 买入（维持评级） 研 究 高端化韧性彰显，利润率提升逻辑稳步兑现 当前价格： 79.31元 目标价格： 108.09元 事件：青岛啤酒发布 2024年一季度报告，公司24Q1 实现营业收 入101.5亿元，同比-5.19%，实现归属于母公司股东的净利润15.97 基本数据 亿元，同比+10.06%，实现扣非归母净利润 15.13 亿元，同比 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 1,364.20/704.70 流通A股市值(百万元) 55,889.63 +12.11%。 每股净资产(元) 20.12 资产负债率(%) 42.64 一年内最高/最低价(元) 117.63/67.56 一年内股价相对走势  高端化韧性彰显，吨成本同比改善明显 公 司 公司24Q1 持续推进品牌优化和产品结构升级，实现销量 财 218.4万吨，同比-7.58%,其中青岛主品牌实现销量132.2万吨， 报 同比-5.64%，中高端以上产品实现销量96万吨，同比-2.44%， 点 下降幅度均低于公司总体水平，驱动公司吨酒价格同比增长 评 2.58%至4647.44元 ...

业绩超预期，成本红利显现 青岛啤酒（600600.SH）/饮 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月29日 料制造 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格：79.31 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 32,172 33,937 35,136 36,386 37,664 分析师：范劲松 增长率yoy% 7% 5% 4% 4% 4% 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 净利润（百万元） 3,711 4,268 5,099 5,798 6,378 电话：021-20315733 增长率yoy% 18% 15% 19% 14% 10% 每股收益（元） 2.72 3.13 3.74 4.25 4.67 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 3.58 2.04 4.13 4.68 5.12 分析师：熊欣慰 净资产收益率 14% 15% 16% 17% 17% 执业证书编号：S0740519080002 P/E 29.2 25.4 21. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [5][7] Core Views - Qingdao Beer reported a Q1 2024 revenue of 10.15 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 10.1% to 1.6 billion yuan [2][3] - Despite a decline in sales volume, the company is successfully upgrading its product structure, with a 2.6% increase in average selling price (ASP) to 4,647 yuan per thousand liters [3][4] - The company has improved its net profit margin to 15.99%, up 2.23 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost control and a favorable product mix [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2024 revenue was 10.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, with sales volume down 7.6% to 2.184 million kiloliters [2][3] - The main brand's sales volume fell by 5.6%, while mid-to-high-end products saw a smaller decline of 2.4% [3] - Gross margin improved to 40.44%, up 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, aided by lower costs for barley and packaging materials [4] Cost Management - The company achieved a sales expense ratio of 12.83%, down 1.02 percentage points, reflecting improved efficiency in expense allocation [4] - Management expense ratio increased slightly to 3.4%, up 0.41 percentage points [4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates easing of high base pressure in the coming quarters, with expectations for improved sales during the peak season [5] - The company aims for double-digit growth in sales of its premium products, indicating a continued focus on high-end market segments [5] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 5.033 billion, 5.753 billion, and 6.353 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.69, 4.22, and 4.66 yuan [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) [5] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2024 revenue of 10.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10% to 1.597 billion, exceeding expectations [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5 billion, 5.63 billion, and 6.22 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x for the respective years [5] - The report highlights the potential for continuous improvement in the dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 2.5% for 2023, making it attractive for investors [5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 79.31 yuan - One-year high/low: 112.79/67.56 yuan - Market capitalization: 55.89 billion yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 3.7 - Dividend yield: 0.63 [2] Financial Data - Net asset per share: 21.31 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 40.85% - Total shares: 1.364 billion, circulating A shares: 705 million [3] Sales Performance - Q1 2024 sales volume: 2.184 million tons, down 7.6% year-on-year - Main brand sales volume: 1.322 million tons, down 5.6% - Mid-to-high-end product sales volume: 960,000 tons, down 2.4% - The proportion of mid-to-high-end products in total sales increased by 2.3 percentage points to 43.96% [6] Cost and Profitability - Q1 2024 cost per ton: 2,768 yuan, down 1% year-on-year - Gross margin: 40.44%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year - Net profit margin: 15.7%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Projections - Total revenue projections for 2024-2026: 35.907 billion, 37.932 billion, and 39.622 billion respectively - Expected net profit growth rates: 16.9%, 12.8%, and 10.4% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][8]

2024年04月30日 公 司点评 公 买入 / 维持 司 青岛啤酒(600600) 研 究 目标价: 92.25 昨收盘:79.31 一季度成本端改善，利润增长超预期 事件：青岛啤酒发布2024年一季报，2024Q1实现营收101.50亿 ◼ 走势比较 元，同比-5.19%，归母净利润15.97亿元，同比+10.06%，扣非归母净 利润15.13亿元，同比+12.11%。 10% 销量因高基数略有承压，利润释放超预期。公司一季度收入端高 太 0% 基数下略有承压，利润端超预期。2024Q1销售收现达96.22亿元，同 平 (10%)4/5/32 51/7/32 52/9/32 6/21/32 61/2/42 82/4/42 比+5.17%，高于收入增速。量价拆分来看，2024Q1 公司销量/吨价分 洋 别为 218.4 万千升/4647 元/千升，同比-7.6%/+2.6%，其中主品牌青 (20%) 证 岛啤酒/中高端及以上产品分别实现销量 132.2/96 万千升， 同比- (30%) 5.6%/-2.4%，中高端及以上产品销量占比44.0%，同比+2.3pct，预计 券 (40%) 经典、白啤持续高增， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Qingdao Beer [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 earnings that exceeded expectations, with a significant improvement in profit margins [1][3] - The sales volume of mid-to-high-end products continues to increase, contributing to a rise in average selling price [3] - Raw material costs have decreased, and product structure upgrades have led to a substantial increase in gross margin [3] - The company is expected to maintain a steady sales rhythm with a focus on core product development and cost control, leading to profit growth outpacing revenue growth [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 total revenue reached 10.15 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 5.2%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% [2][3] - The sales volume for Q1 2024 was 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-over-year, but the sales of mid-to-high-end products accounted for 44.0% of total sales, up 2.3 percentage points [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 40.4%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-over-year, driven by lower raw material costs and product upgrades [3] - The company expects a profit growth rate of 12% CAGR from 2024 to 2026, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 5.1 billion, 5.7 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) with a target price of 105 CNY, while the current price is 79.31 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by cost reductions and structural upgrades despite a high base effect from the previous year [2]. - The report highlights that the trend of upgrading product structure remains intact, with premium brands showing resilience and growth [2]. - The anticipated continuation of cost benefits is expected to enhance performance in subsequent quarters, particularly in Q3 due to lower base effects and potential catalysts from sports events [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved total revenue of 10.15 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.6 billion CNY, up 10.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company sold 2.184 million kiloliters of beer in Q1 2024, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year, attributed to last year's post-pandemic consumption surge [2]. - The average price per ton increased by 2.6% to 4,647.4 CNY per kiloliter, indicating a positive trend in pricing despite volume pressures [2]. - The gross profit margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 40.4%, supported by lower costs of barley and packaging materials [2]. - The report projects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 3.71, 4.28, and 4.91 CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 19, and 16 times [3][2]. Market Position and Strategy - Qingdao Beer is positioned as a market leader with strong brand power and solid channel operations, allowing it to benefit from the ongoing premiumization trend in the beer industry [2]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain a robust pricing strategy and cost management, which are crucial for sustaining profitability amid competitive pressures [2].

证 券 2024 年 04 月 29 日 研 究 毛销差同比扩大，释放业绩弹性 报 告 —青岛啤酒（600600.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 2024 年 04 月 29 日，青岛啤酒发布 2023 年一季度业绩报 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 告。 分析师：廖望州 S1050523100001 liaowz@cfsc.com.cn 投资要点 基本数据 2024-04-29 ▌ 毛销差扩大，高端化升级推升盈利能力 当前股价（元） 79.31 总市值（亿元） 1082 公司 2024 年一季度营收 101.50 亿元（同比-5.19%），归母 净利润 15.97 亿元（同比+10.06%），扣非归母净利润为 总股本（百万股） 1364 15.13 亿元（同比+12.11%）。2024 年一季度毛利率为 流通股本（百万股） 705 40.44% （ 同 比 +2.12pcts ） ， 净 利 率 15.99% （ 同 比 52周价格范围（元） 68.35-112.15 +2.23pcts）；销售费用率为 12.83%（同比-1.02pcts），管 ...

Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 10.15 billion, a decrease of 5.19% year-on-year[5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.60 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.06%[5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 1.51 billion, up 12.11% year-on-year[5] - The basic earnings per share were RMB 1.175, an increase of 9.71% year-on-year[5] Cash Flow and Assets - The operating cash flow net amount increased by 57.29% to RMB 2.85 billion, driven by higher cash receipts from sales[7] - The total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 50.46 billion, an increase of 2.44% from the end of the previous year[4] - The equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 29.07 billion, reflecting a growth of 5.89% year-on-year[4] Sales and Market Performance - The cumulative product sales reached 2.184 million kiloliters, with the main brand Tsingtao beer accounting for 1.322 million kiloliters[5] Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to enhance brand optimization and product structure upgrades to achieve sustainable high-quality development[5] Government Support and Shareholding - The company received government subsidies amounting to RMB 94.92 million related to daily operations[6] - Qingdao Beer Group holds a total of 38,335,600 H shares and 405,132,055 A shares of the company[10] - The company acquired 20% equity of Qingdao Beer (Anshan) Co., Ltd. for RMB 18.065 million, increasing its ownership to 80%[12] - The report indicates that there were no changes in the top 10 shareholders due to margin trading or stock lending activities[11]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first quarter of 2024 was RMB 10.15 billion, a decrease of 5.19% year-over-year[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 1.597 billion, an increase of 10.06% year-over-year[4] - Net profit for the first quarter of 2024 was 1.62 billion RMB, compared to 1.47 billion RMB in the same period last year[18] - Operating income for the first quarter of 2024 was 10.15 billion RMB, down from 10.71 billion RMB in the same period last year[17] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 1.175, an increase of 9.71% year-over-year[4] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter of 2024 was 1.175 RMB, up from 1.071 RMB in the same period last year[19] - Weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 5.65%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points[4] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 2.853 billion, an increase of 57.29% year-over-year[4] - Net cash flow from operating activities increased by 57.3% to 2,853,166,067 yuan in Q1 2024 from 1,813,957,743 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Total cash inflow from operating activities reached 10,020,892,260 yuan in Q1 2024, up 7.5% from 9,325,415,046 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash outflow for purchasing goods and services decreased by 5.6% to 3,776,378,876 yuan in Q1 2024 from 4,000,150,030 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash payments for investments surged to 7,200,000,000 yuan in Q1 2024, a 12.7% increase from 6,386,109,500 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Net cash flow from investment activities was -5,925,636,971 yuan in Q1 2024, compared to -4,190,214,856 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2024 stood at 6,183,503,443 yuan, a 40.8% decrease from 10,444,423,063 yuan at the end of Q1 2023[22] - Cash payments for employee compensation increased by 4.5% to 1,392,868,601 yuan in Q1 2024 from 1,333,509,933 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Tax payments decreased by 17.2% to 1,135,815,605 yuan in Q1 2024 from 1,370,839,687 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash received from disposal of fixed assets and intangible assets dropped significantly to 7,273,212 yuan in Q1 2024 from 586,174,150 yuan in Q1 2023[21] Sales and Product Performance - Total product sales volume for the first quarter was 2.184 million kiloliters, with the main brand Tsingtao Beer contributing 1.322 million kiloliters[5] - Sales volume of mid-to-high-end products reached 960,000 kiloliters[5] - Sales of goods and services received cash of 9,622,455,676 yuan in Q1 2024, a 5.2% increase from 9,149,118,050 yuan in Q1 2023[20] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased by 2.44% to RMB 50.459 billion compared to the end of the previous year[5] - Total assets increased to 50.46 billion RMB, up from 49.26 billion RMB in the previous period[15] - Equity attributable to shareholders of the listed company increased by 5.89% to RMB 29.068 billion[5] - Total equity increased to 29.85 billion RMB from 28.25 billion RMB[16] - Total liabilities decreased to 20.61 billion RMB from 21.00 billion RMB[16] - Contract liabilities decreased to 5.94 billion RMB from 7.69 billion RMB[15] - The company's monetary funds increased to RMB 21.60 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 19.28 billion at the end of 2023[13] - Trading financial assets rose to RMB 3.04 billion in Q1 2024, up from RMB 1.92 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Inventory decreased to RMB 2.51 billion in Q1 2024 from RMB 3.54 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Total current assets reached RMB 30.11 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 29.61 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Fixed assets stood at RMB 10.95 billion as of March 31, 2024, slightly down from RMB 11.15 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Construction in progress increased to RMB 603.06 million in Q1 2024 from RMB 498.57 million at the end of 2023[14] - Intangible assets grew to RMB 2.62 billion as of March 31, 2024, up from RMB 2.49 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Deferred tax assets rose to RMB 2.14 billion in Q1 2024 from RMB 2.03 billion at the end of 2023[14] - The company's total non-current assets increased to RMB 19.05 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 18.13 billion at the end of 2023[14] Investments and Acquisitions - The company acquired a 20% stake in Qingdao Beer (Anshan) Co., Ltd. for RMB 18.065 million, increasing its ownership to 80%[12] Expenses and Costs - Research and development expenses increased to 17.83 million RMB from 10.70 million RMB[18] - Sales expenses decreased to 1.30 billion RMB from 1.48 billion RMB[18] - Financial expenses showed a net income of 141.21 million RMB, compared to 102.26 million RMB in the same period last year[18] Government Subsidies - Government subsidies received during the period amounted to RMB 94.924 million[6]