Core Viewpoint - Oakmark Fund's fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter highlights its strong performance, particularly focusing on Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. as a key investment opportunity due to its recent strategic moves and stock performance [1][3]. Performance Summary - The Oakmark Fund (investor class) achieved a return of 4.78% in the fourth quarter of 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which returned 2.66% [1]. - Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ:WBD) experienced a one-month return of 2.30% and a remarkable 194.79% increase over the last 52 weeks, closing at $28.86 per share with a market capitalization of $71.558 billion on January 13, 2026 [2]. Company Developments - Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. was the top contributor to the Oakmark Fund's performance during the quarter, driven by multiple acquisition offers for the company [3]. - The company announced an agreement to sell its Streaming and Studios business to Netflix while spinning off its Global Networks business to shareholders [3]. - Paramount Skydance made a direct offer of $30 per share to shareholders for the entire company, indicating strong interest in acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery [3]. Hedge Fund Interest - At the end of the third quarter, 70 hedge fund portfolios held shares of Warner Bros. Discovery, an increase from 67 in the previous quarter, reflecting growing interest among institutional investors [4].

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.32%, S&P 500 futures down 0.42%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.63% [1] - The German DAX index is down 0.41%, while the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.26%, and the French CAC40 is up 0.03% [2][3] - WTI crude oil has increased by 1.19%, priced at $61.88 per barrel, and Brent crude oil has also risen by 1.19%, priced at $66.25 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have shifted, with traders increasingly betting that the Fed will maintain rates throughout the year, influenced by recent labor market data and CPI indicating stable inflation [4] - A prominent investor predicts a potential 20% decline in the Dow Jones index by the end of the year, citing pressures on ordinary consumers due to high living costs [5] Debt Market Concerns - Morgan Stanley reports that the size of basis trading in US Treasuries has ballooned to approximately $1.5 trillion, necessitating close monitoring to avoid a repeat of market volatility seen in 2020 [6] Commodity Market Developments - Silver prices have surged nearly 4%, reaching $90.36 per ounce, with a peak at $91.56, driven by rising safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions [7] - LME tin prices have reached a historical high of $51,675 per ton, reflecting a significant increase driven by Chinese investor interest in commodities [7] Company Earnings Reports - Bank of America reported Q4 net revenue of $28.37 billion, exceeding market expectations of $27.76 billion, and net interest income of $15.75 billion, also above expectations [8] - Wells Fargo's Q4 revenue was $21.29 billion, falling short of the expected $21.64 billion, with net interest income of $12.33 billion, below the anticipated $12.43 billion [9] - Tesla is shifting its Full Self-Driving (FSD) sales model to a subscription service, effective February 14, significantly lowering the entry cost for consumers [9] - Netflix is exploring an all-cash acquisition of Warner Bros. to expedite the deal process amid competitive pressures [10] - Citigroup is set to lay off approximately 1,000 employees as part of a broader plan to reduce its workforce by 20,000 by the end of the year [10] Pharmaceutical Innovations - Amgen's experimental weight loss drug MariTide shows promise with a monthly injection regimen that helps patients maintain weight loss over two years, contrasting with the more frequent injections of existing weight loss medications [11]

Core Viewpoint - Netflix is preparing to switch to an all-cash offer to expedite its acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) amid a competitive landscape with a rival bid from Paramount Skydance [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Netflix's offer for WBD is valued at $83 billion (£62 billion) and aims to accelerate the acquisition process, making it more appealing to WBD shareholders [1] - The deal would allow Netflix to control WBD's key assets, including Warner Bros and HBO, which host major franchises and popular shows [3] - Under the original terms, WBD shareholders were set to receive $23.25 per share in cash, along with stock in Netflix and equity in WBD's global networks, which Netflix is not acquiring [5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Paramount, backed by billionaire Larry Ellison, is pursuing its own $108.4 billion takeover of WBD, supported by a $40 billion personal guarantee from Ellison [4] - WBD has advised its shareholders to reject Paramount's "inadequate" hostile bid, citing concerns over the reliance on significant debt financing [4] - Amid the corporate battle, Paramount plans to nominate directors to WBD's board to oppose the Netflix deal [5] Group 3: Market Reaction - Following reports of Netflix's plans, WBD shares increased by 1.6%, while Netflix shares rose by 1% [7]

来源：IT之家 在彭博社报道 Netflix 可能修改交易条款后，华纳兄弟股价周二上涨了 1.6%，表明这一举措受到华纳兄 弟投资者的欢迎。 截至发稿，Netflix 和华纳兄弟的代表未回应置评请求，派拉蒙则不予置评。 知情人士称，Netflix 修订交易条款旨在为华纳兄弟股东提供一个更快捷、更简单的交易方案。不过知 情人士同时警告称，修订协议的事宜仍在讨论中，相关计划仍可能发生变化。 根据 Netflix 在去年 12 月与华纳兄弟达成的最初协议，这笔交易当时对华纳兄弟估值为每股 27.75 美 元，其中 4.50 美元将以 Netflix 股票支付，总企业价值为 827 亿美元。另据彭博社报道，如果 Netflix 的 股价跌破 97.91 美元，交易还会进行相应调整。自 Netflix 去年 10 月开始寻求收购华纳兄弟以来，其股 价已下跌约四分之一。周二在纽约股市，Netflix 股价一度低至 89.07 美元。 据《金融时报》报道，Netflix 正准备修改以接近 830 亿美元收购华纳兄弟探索公司 (WBD) 的条款，将 其改为全现金报价，以抵御派拉蒙的敌意收购，并加快交易完成速度。 ...

Group 1 - Netflix is adjusting the acquisition terms for Warner Bros. Discovery, exploring a cash-only purchase of its film studio and streaming business to expedite the deal [1] - The original agreement stipulated that Warner Bros. shareholders would receive $23.25 in cash and $4.50 in Netflix common stock, with a protective clause if Netflix's stock falls below $97.91 [1] - Since the acquisition proposal was initiated in October last year, Netflix's stock has dropped approximately 25% [1] Group 2 - Netflix has secured $59 billion in financing from multiple Wall Street banks, marking one of the largest bridge loans in history [1] - The company has refinanced about $25 billion of this debt through the issuance of long-term bonds [1] - Credit analyst Stephen Flynn noted that Netflix has the capacity for further financing without affecting its strong credit rating, maintaining a low net leverage ratio [1] Group 3 - Paramount's CEO David Ellison and Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison are backing a $40.4 billion offer for Warner Bros. stock and have taken legal action to obtain details on Netflix's transaction valuation [2] - Paramount plans to nominate board members to Warner Bros. to obstruct the acquisition deal [3] - Following the news of Netflix's adjusted acquisition plan, Warner Bros. stock rose by 1.62% to $28.86, while Netflix's stock increased by 1.02% to $90.32 [3]

Group 1 - Netflix is planning to modify the terms of its acquisition deal for Warner Bros. Discovery and has discussed the possibility of an all-cash purchase to expedite the transaction [1] - Under the initial agreement, Warner Bros. shareholders were set to receive $23.25 in cash and $4.5 worth of Netflix common stock per share [1]

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be fully canceled starting April 1, 2026, increasing export costs for companies [2] - The export tax rebate for photovoltaic silicon wafers, batteries, and modules was previously reduced from 13% to 9% in December 2024, indicating a trend of declining export tax rates [2] - The Chinese photovoltaic industry has seen a decrease in export prices since 2024, leading to a "volume increase, price decrease" situation, with some companies passing on rebate amounts to foreign buyers, resulting in profit loss [2][3] - The cancellation of export tax rebates aims to promote rational competition in the photovoltaic industry and curb excessive price declines [3] Group 2: Elderly Care Robotics - Eight departments, including the Ministry of Civil Affairs, have issued measures to encourage the development of the elderly care robotics industry, promoting technological integration across various sectors [4] - The initiative aims to provide comprehensive intelligent support for the elderly, leveraging technologies such as embodied intelligence and new materials [4][5] - The market for elderly care technology products and services is expected to expand rapidly, although current technology maturity remains insufficient [5] Group 3: Real Estate Market in Tianjin - Tianjin will tighten control over new housing prices, limiting price changes to within 10% of the registered price for new sales permits [6] - The city has previously implemented price control measures to stabilize housing prices, with over 20 cities having introduced similar "price drop limits" [6][7] - The new management approach aims to control both price increases and decreases, although enforcing price decreases may face challenges [6] Group 4: AI and Technology Collaborations - Google and Apple have entered a strategic partnership, with Google's Gemini model being used to support Apple's AI developments, including Siri [8] - Apple is expected to pay approximately $1 billion annually to Google for technology licensing, indicating a significant investment in AI capabilities [8] - Nvidia and Eli Lilly have announced a $1 billion collaboration to establish a research lab focused on AI applications in the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the growing intersection of AI and healthcare [10][11] Group 5: ByteDance's Stock Options - ByteDance's stock option price has increased from $44 in 2019 to $226.07 in January 2024, representing a rise of over 4 times [14] - The company is reportedly raising its valuation to between $350 billion and $370 billion as it continues to enhance employee compensation and stock option incentives [14][15] - ByteDance's strong financial performance and aggressive AI application strategy position it as a leading player in the tech industry, despite facing increasing policy risks in overseas markets [15]

Core Viewpoint - Netflix is likely to convert its $27.75-a-share bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) into an all-cash offer due to declining share prices and investor concerns over the stock component of the initial bid [1][2]. Group 1: Netflix's Bid Strategy - The initial bid from Netflix included both cash and stock, but the company is now considering a 100% cash offer to alleviate investor anxiety [1][2]. - Netflix's current offer is not expected to increase, and it is contingent on the uncertain valuation of WBD's cable properties, including CNN, TNT, and Discovery Inc. [2][6]. - The shift to an all-cash offer could trigger a bidding war for WBD, particularly from Paramount Skydance, which has already made a hostile bid for the company [3][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Valuation Concerns - Netflix's stock has seen a significant decline, losing approximately $160 billion in value over the past six months, which has affected the perceived value of its bid [6]. - Investors, including Mario Gabelli from Gamco Inc., are urging Netflix to simplify its offer to include more cash, emphasizing that "cash is king" in the current market [8]. - Paramount Skydance is hesitant to increase its bid above $78 billion or $30 per share, arguing that Netflix's reliance on stock in a volatile market is risky [5][13]. Group 3: Legal and Competitive Developments - Paramount has intensified its efforts by filing a lawsuit to obtain details of WBD's board deliberations regarding the selection of Netflix's proposal over its own [11]. - The company is also pursuing a proxy battle to elect new directors to WBD's board, indicating a strategic long-term approach despite the pressure to increase its bid [11][13]. - Paramount believes that the valuation of WBD's cable properties may not meet expectations, potentially leading to a lower sale price than anticipated [14].

Core Viewpoint - Netflix is considering changing its cash-and-stock deal for Warner Bros. studios and streaming assets to an all-cash offer, amidst competition from Paramount's $30-a-share cash proposal for Warner Bros. Discovery [1][2]. Group 1: Netflix's Offer - Netflix's current offer for Warner Bros. is $27.75 per share, which includes $23.25 in cash and $4.50 in Netflix shares [2]. - The potential shift to an all-cash deal by Netflix is seen as a response to Paramount's assertion that cash offers are more favorable [2]. Group 2: Paramount's Actions - Paramount has filed a lawsuit against the Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) board in Delaware Chancery Court, seeking documentation on the decision-making process that led to the choice of Netflix over its own offer [3]. - Paramount is also planning a proxy fight to elect its own directors to the WBD board, aiming to challenge the Netflix deal and promote its own proposal [3]. Group 3: WBD's Position - WBD has labeled Paramount's lawsuit as "meritless" and argues that a merger with Paramount poses greater risks for Warner Bros. and its shareholders [4]. - The WBD board has advised shareholders against accepting Paramount's offer and remains committed to the agreement with Netflix [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance intensifies as Paramount pursues a hostile takeover bid following Netflix's acquisition announcement of certain Warner Bros. assets [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Corporate Strategies - Paramount has filed a lawsuit in the Delaware Chancery Court to compel Warner Bros. to disclose details on asset valuation and the Netflix offer [2][7]. - Paramount is initiating a proxy fight to nominate its own directors to the Warner Bros. board to oppose the Netflix acquisition [2][7]. - Warner Bros. plans to split its streaming and studios business from its global networks division, creating a new entity called Discovery Global [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Offers and Comparisons - Paramount's CEO expressed confusion over Warner Bros.' rejection of a $30-per-share cash offer, labeling Netflix's $27.72 offer as inferior [3][8]. - Warner Bros. has characterized Paramount's bid as a stunt and the lawsuit as meritless, citing deficiencies in Paramount's offer [8]. Group 3: Asset Details and Future Plans - The deal with Netflix includes Warner Bros. assets such as film and television studios and HBO Max, but excludes legacy television and cable channels [4]. - The new Discovery Global entity is expected to encompass major entertainment and sports brands, including CNN and Discovery+ [6].