Company Overview - Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: WDC) is a leading American data storage company known for manufacturing hard drives, solid-state drives, and NAND flash memory [2] - The company is scheduled to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on July 30, 2025, with analysts expecting adjusted earnings of $1.48 per share on $2.47 billion in revenue [2] Earnings Expectations - The expected earnings indicate a year-over-year increase of 3% in earnings but a significant 34% drop in revenue compared to the same quarter of the previous year, which reported $1.44 per share and $3.76 billion in revenue [2] - This earnings announcement will be the second following the successful completion of Western Digital's planned separation from SanDisk, allowing the company to focus on its core HDD business [2] Historical Performance - Historically, Western Digital's stock has decreased after earnings announcements 53% of the time, with a median one-day loss of 3.1% and a maximum post-earnings decline of 10% [3] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $24 billion, with revenue over the last twelve months at $19 billion, generating $2.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.7 billion [3] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical performance patterns and the gap between actual earnings results and market expectations to inform their strategies [4] - Traders may choose to position themselves ahead of the earnings release or react after the announcement based on short- and medium-term returns [4] Post-Earnings Return Analysis - Over the last five years, there have been 19 documented earnings data points for Western Digital, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns observed about 47% of the time [5] - This percentage increases to 50% when considering data from the last three years [5] - The median of the 9 positive returns is 4.7%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -3.1% [5] Correlation of Returns - Understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can help traders make informed decisions [6] - If the 1D post-earnings return is positive and shows high correlation with 5D returns, traders can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days [6]

Core Insights - Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is set to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on July 30, with earnings estimated at $1.47, reflecting a 2% growth year-over-year [1] - Revenue estimates are pegged at $2.45 billion, indicating a significant decline of 34.8% from the previous year [2] - The company has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 7.3% [2] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $2.45 billion, which is a 34.8% decline from the prior-year quarter [2] - Management projects non-GAAP earnings of $1.45, with a potential variance of +/- 20 cents [1][2] - WDC anticipates sequential revenue growth in Q4, driven by strong demand from cloud service providers [3][4] Market Demand and Product Performance - Continued strong demand from cloud service providers is expected to benefit WDC's fiscal fourth-quarter performance, with cloud revenues reaching $2 billion, up 38% year-over-year [3] - The company has shipped over 800,000 units of its 11-disk drives in the fiscal third quarter, with expectations to exceed 1 million units in the June quarter [4] - Management is focusing on HAMR technology and has secured long-term agreements with two major customers through mid-2026 [4] Strategic Initiatives and Innovations - WDC is investing in generative AI-driven storage deployments, which are anticipated to refresh client and consumer devices, thereby increasing content growth across various platforms [5] - The company has established a separate entity, Sandisk, to further expand its Flash business [5] - Recent developments include a partnership with Ingrasys to engineer a new Top-of-Rack Ethernet Bunch of Flash switch, aimed at meeting the surging data demands of AI workloads [13] Financial Strategies - WDC has launched a $2 billion share buyback program, reflecting a strong capital allocation strategy focused on long-term returns for investors [14] - Management expects operating expenses to rise slightly to $330–$340 million due to increased variable pay, new hires, and R&D investments [11] Challenges and Market Conditions - Ongoing macroeconomic volatility and trade conflicts are likely to impact WDC's performance in the upcoming quarter [6][10] - Despite broader uncertainties, demand from hyperscale customers remains strong amid a constrained supply situation [10]

Market Overview - The market capitalization of major US stocks shows varied performance, with Oracle at 762.30 billion, Mastercard at 321.36 billion, and Visa at 770.15 billion, reflecting increases of +0.66%, +0.86%, and +0.68% respectively [3] - Exxon Mobil's market cap is 679.53 billion, with a slight decrease of -0.98%, while Johnson & Johnson and Netflix show minor changes of -0.08% and -0.05% respectively [3] - Companies like Wells Fargo and Cisco have market caps of 270.15 billion and 279.59 billion, with respective increases of +0.98% and -0.58% [3] Notable Stock Movements - T-Mobile US Inc experienced a significant increase of +6.20%, reaching a market cap of 272.19 billion [3] - General Electric and Coca-Cola saw market caps of 285.05 billion and 298.76 billion, with increases of +0.37% and +0.91% respectively [3] - Companies like Disney and Goldman Sachs have market caps of 229.06 billion and 221.80 billion, with slight changes of +0.01% and -0.60% [3] Sector Performance - The technology sector shows mixed results, with Intel at 991.05 billion, down -3.28%, while AMD increased by +2.46% to 254.92 billion [5] - The consumer goods sector is represented by companies like Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, with market caps of 371.68 billion and 298.76 billion, showing slight increases [3][4] - The energy sector, represented by Exxon Mobil and Chevron, shows varied performance, with Exxon down -0.98% and Chevron up +0.66% [3] Summary of Key Companies - Oracle's market cap stands at 762.30 billion, reflecting a positive trend [3] - Mastercard and Visa show strong performance with market caps of 321.36 billion and 770.15 billion, both increasing [3] - Companies like Pfizer and Comcast have market caps of 1579.81 billion and 1332.00 billion, with Pfizer showing minimal change and Comcast down -3.16% [4][5]

Market Overview - Wall Street's winning streak continues, driven by positive trade news and strong economic data, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high following a significant trade deal between the United States and Japan, which lowers tariffs and opens up $550 billion in new investments [1] - Retail sales exceeded expectations in June, and jobless claims decreased, indicating a robust labor market and steady consumer spending despite ongoing tariff concerns [1][9] Trade Negotiations and Economic Environment - Progress in trade negotiations with the U.K., Indonesia, and the Philippines, along with positive signals from China and the EU, creates an encouraging backdrop for equities [2] - The current earnings season is contributing to market momentum, suggesting that focusing on relative price strength can help investors identify leading stocks [2] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks based on relative price strength include Western Digital Corporation (WDC), Flowserve Corporation (FLS), OPENLANE, Inc. (KAR), AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU), and Jabil Inc. (JBL) [3][9] - These stocks are outperforming their peers, supported by strong relative price strength metrics [9] Relative Price Strength Strategy - Earnings growth and valuation multiples are crucial for assessing a stock's potential returns and its performance relative to peers [4] - Investors are advised to avoid underperforming stocks and focus on those that are outperforming their respective industries or benchmarks [5] Screening Parameters - Stocks are screened based on relative price changes over 12 weeks, 4 weeks, and 1 week, as well as positive current-quarter estimate revisions [8] - Stocks that have shown better performance than the S&P 500 over the last 1 to 3 months and have solid fundamentals are considered for investment [6] Company Profiles - **Western Digital Corporation (WDC)**: Market cap of $23.4 billion, expected EPS growth of 2,465% year-over-year for fiscal 2025, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of approximately 7.3% [11][12] - **Flowserve Corporation (FLS)**: Market cap not specified, expected EPS growth rate of 14.2% over three to five years, with a 22.1% year-over-year growth estimate for 2025 [13][14] - **OPENLANE, Inc. (KAR)**: Market cap of $2.7 billion, expected EPS growth of 17.7% year-over-year for 2025, shares up 44% in a year [14][15] - **AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU)**: Market cap of $21.8 billion, expected EPS growth of 125.8% year-over-year for 2025, shares up 89% in a year [16] - **Jabil Inc. (JBL)**: Market cap not specified, expected EPS growth rate of 16.6% over three to five years, with a 10.6% year-over-year growth estimate for 2025 [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's strategy team highlights 15 stocks with short-term catalytic potential, indicating that S&P 500 index earnings growth in Q2 may exceed expectations [1] Earnings Expectations - The market anticipates a 5% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 Q2 earnings per share and over 4% revenue growth, but actual growth may be stronger [1] - The seven major tech companies are expected to see a 14% increase in net profit, while the remaining 493 constituents may experience a 3% decline [1] - Despite analysts lowering earnings expectations from April to May, the earnings revision has rebounded from -25% to approximately 1%, suggesting Q2 earnings will likely exceed expectations, aligning with the historical average of 4%-5% [1] Recommended Stocks - **argenx SE (ARGX.US)**: undervalued R&D pipeline, target price $700 [2] - **Atlassian (TEAM.US)**: continuous revenue growth potential over 20% and expected margin expansion, target price $320 [3] - **Chewy (CHWY.US)**: benefits from marketing and product optimization, expected revenue to maintain or exceed Q1 levels, target price $50 [4] - **CVS Health (CVS.US)**: advantages from competitor store closures and growth in pharmacy benefit management, target price $80 [4] - **DraftKings (DKNG.US)**: potential earnings inflection point in Q2, with actual licensing rates offsetting tax and regulatory pressures, target price $52 [4] - **Eaton Corporation (ETN.US)**: benefits from improved profit margins in U.S. electrical business, target price $375 [5] - **Eli Lilly (LLY.US)**: core products Mounjaro and Zepbound expected to contribute $8.2 billion in revenue, exceeding expectations may lead to 2025 guidance upgrades, target price $1,135 [5] - **F5 (FFIV.US)**: positive outlook due to demand growth in cloud and load balancing products, target price $305 [6] - **NVIDIA (NVDA.US)**: strong end-user demand and accelerated shipments of rack-level products supporting supply-side growth, target price $170 [7] - **Omada Health (OMDA.US)**: operational leverage through technology empowerment and multi-disease sales, target price $25 [8] - **Southwest Airlines (LUV.US)**: potential stock rebound if internal guidance is met and baggage fee impacts are confirmed as limited, target price $38 [9] - **Valley National Bank (VLY.US)**: expected net interest income growth of 3% quarter-over-quarter, target price $11 [10] - **Western Digital (WDC.US)**: undervalued gross margin expansion prospects, target price $85 [11] Cautious Outlook - **National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA.US)**: cautious due to expected funds from operations (FFO) per share being below market and company guidance, target price $30 [12] - **Teradyne (TER.US)**: revenue and earnings per share forecasts for FY2026 are 7% and 14% below Wall Street expectations, target price $74 [13] Summary - Overall, Morgan Stanley's recommendations combine company fundamentals, industry trends, and market sentiment, providing diversified options for investors [14]

From a technical perspective, Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is looking like an interesting pick, as it just reached a key level of support. WDC's 50-day simple moving average crossed above its 200-day simple moving average, which is known as a "golden cross" in the trading world.A golden cross is a technical chart pattern that can signify a potential bullish breakout. It's formed from a crossover involving a security's short-term moving average breaking above a longer-term moving average, with the most ...

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo has raised the target price for Western Digital from $65 to $80 [1] Group 1 - The increase in target price indicates a positive outlook for Western Digital's stock performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo raised the target price for Western Digital from $65 to $80 [1] Company Summary - The adjustment in target price indicates a positive outlook for Western Digital's stock performance [1]

Core Insights - Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: WDC) is recognized as a leading provider of data storage solutions, particularly known for its hard disk drives (HDDs) [1] - The company is positioned for significant and long-term growth, primarily driven by the increasing demand for data storage due to the explosion in data generation [1] Company Analysis - The analysis emphasizes a quantamental approach, combining data-driven models with fundamental research to evaluate the company's financial profile [1] - Metrics such as PEG ratios are utilized in the structured investment process, which includes both top-down screening and bottom-up company-specific analysis [1] Investment Perspective - The article aims to make compelling research accessible to both retail and professional investors, ensuring analytical depth and a clear investment thesis [1] - There is an indication of a potential beneficial long position in WDC, suggesting a positive outlook on the company's stock [1]

Market Overview - The market is trending higher, led by tech stocks, with major indices nearing all-time highs and individual stocks experiencing significant gains [1] - Investor interest in momentum and speculation has increased, but caution is advised as technical indicators signal potential pullbacks [1] Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key momentum gauge, with readings above 70 indicating overbought conditions, and readings in the high 80s or 90s suggesting a likely near-term pullback [2] - Three stocks are identified as overbought based on elevated RSI readings, indicating a potential opportunity for investors to lock in profits [2] Western Digital Corporation (WDC) - WDC has seen a strong performance, rallying nearly 46% year-to-date and 128% from its 52-week low, driven by AI demand for data storage and favorable Q3 earnings [3][4] - The stock's RSI is at 87, indicating it is deep in overbought territory, and it has significantly exceeded its mid-to-short-term moving averages, raising the likelihood of a near-term pullback [4] - Despite being overbought, WDC is considered undervalued with a P/E ratio of 12.5 and a forward P/E of 11.9, suggesting potential for future growth [5][6] Seagate Technology (STX) - STX has mirrored WDC's rally, with shares up over 76% year-to-date and 140% from their 52-week low, driven by AI infrastructure and recovering demand [7] - The stock's RSI is nearly 90, indicating it is among the most technically stretched stocks, with a significant extension from key support levels [8] - While fundamentals are improving, the short-term risk-reward profile appears less favorable, with a potential pullback towards the $130 range anticipated [9] Sezzle Inc. (SEZL) - SEZL has gained 304% year-to-date, driven by a strong Q1 earnings report that showed significant revenue growth [11] - The stock is trading near all-time highs with an RSI of 71, indicating it has crossed into overbought territory, warranting monitoring for potential profit-taking [12] - Despite notable growth in gross merchandise volume and profitability, the stock's high valuation and technical exhaustion may lead to a pause in momentum [13] General Investment Considerations - The broader market remains strong, but the elevated RSI levels of WDC, STX, and SEZL suggest they may be due for a breather, prompting investors to consider reducing exposure or locking in profits [14][15]