Summary of Western Digital (WDC) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - Western Digital is now a pure-play hard drive company focused on data storage, particularly in the cloud, with 90% of revenue from cloud services and 10% from client and consumer segments [5][6] Core Strategic Priorities 1. **Growth Initiatives**: - Engaging more with hyperscale customers to understand their architectures and use cases [6] - Product leadership through advanced technologies like EPMR and upcoming HAMR [7] - Continuous innovation in platform business relevant for neocloud players and OEMs [8] 2. **Operational Excellence**: - Focus on flawless execution across all business facets, including process re-engineering and technology adoption [8] - Cultural change emphasizing individual performance and results [9] Financial Performance - The third quarter showed a revenue increase of 30% with significant bottom-line growth [12] - Baseline growth projected at 15% exabyte CAGR, with AI uplift case showing 23% growth [13] - Firm purchase orders (POs) secured with top customers extending into fiscal year 2027 [14][15] Demand and Market Dynamics - Demand for hard drives is central to AI growth, with customers recognizing HDDs as critical for their operations [15] - The company is experiencing a multi-quarter growth cycle driven by AI and cloud demand [16] Risk Mitigation Strategies - Focus on supporting capacity growth through improvements in aerial density and reliable production [17][18] - Investments in head and media facilities to enhance production capabilities [18] Tariffs and Supply Chain - Currently not impacted by tariffs due to classification as a semiconductor, with manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. [20] - Ongoing efforts to mitigate potential tariff impacts through supply chain management [20] Customer Engagement and Demand Visibility - Strong partnerships with customers provide early visibility into demand, reducing uncertainty [23] - The company utilizes machine learning algorithms to assess demand signals beyond customer input [22] AI Workloads and Storage Economics - AI workloads require significant storage, with 80% of data in hyperscale data centers stored on HDDs [26] - HDDs are essential for storing models and associated data during AI training processes [25] Competitive Landscape - Despite the rise of SSDs, HDDs remain vital due to their cost-effectiveness and capacity advantages [31] - The company maintains a 6x delta in acquisition costs compared to flash storage, ensuring HDDs remain competitive [31] Financial Health and Shareholder Returns - Strong free cash flow and a healthy balance sheet with $4.7 billion gross debt and $2.1 billion cash [64] - Commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks [64] Margins and Cost Management - Gross margins have improved from low 30s to mid-40s, with further room for growth [51][53] - Focus on driving down costs per terabyte through higher capacity drives and technology advancements [52] Technology Roadmap - The introduction of UltraSMR technology provides a 20% capacity uplift over standard drives [55] - Ongoing development of HAMR technology aims to enhance capacity and reliability [46] Conclusion - Western Digital is strategically positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for data storage driven by cloud and AI, with a strong focus on customer engagement, operational excellence, and innovative technology solutions [69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a constructive outlook on shares of Amphenol Corp (APH), Dell Technologies (DELL), Corning Inc (GLW), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and the memory/disk drive sector including Seagate Technology (STX), Western Digital Corp (WDC), and SanDisk Corp (SNDK) [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming Citi's 33rd annual Global Technology Conference will feature over 240 technology companies, focusing on updates regarding customer and enterprise demand dynamics, as well as supply chain conditions [1]. - Key investor questions include the impact of Generative AI on infrastructure spending, enterprise spending intentions, consumer spending trends, margin impacts from rising component costs, and capital allocation strategies [2][3]. Company Summaries - **Amphenol Corp (APH)**: Current price at $109.36 with a market cap of $133.52 billion. The target price is set at $125.00 with an expected share price return of 14.3% [7]. - **CDW Corp (CDW)**: Current price at $167.00 with a market cap of $21.89 billion. The target price is $200.00 with an expected share price return of 19.8% [7]. - **Corning Inc (GLW)**: Current price at $65.77 with a market cap of $56.34 billion. The target price is $72.00 with an expected share price return of 9.5% [7]. - **Dell Technologies (DELL)**: Current price at $130.84 with a market cap of $88.50 billion. The target price is $160.00 with an expected share price return of 22.3% [7]. - **Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)**: Current price at $22.45 with a market cap of $29.46 billion. The target price is $25.00 with an expected share price return of 11.4% [7]. - **SanDisk Corp (SNDK)**: Current price at $46.37 with a market cap of $6.76 billion. The target price is $57.00 with an expected share price return of 22.9% [7]. - **Seagate Technology (STX)**: Current price at $159.19 with a market cap of $33.86 billion. The target price is $167.00 with an expected share price return of 4.9% [7]. - **Western Digital Corp (WDC)**: Current price at $76.97 with a market cap of $26.70 billion. The target price is $88.00 with an expected share price return of 14.3% [7].

Company Overview - Western Digital (WDC) closed at $80.34, down 2.07% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.64% [1] - Over the past month, WDC shares gained 4.26%, outperforming the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 2.91% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.91% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect Western Digital to report earnings of $1.57 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 11.8% [2] - The consensus estimate projects revenue of $2.7 billion, indicating a 34.03% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $6.5 per share and revenue of $10.92 billion, representing changes of +31.85% and -17.76% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates may indicate shifting business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analyst optimism [3] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has shown that 1 stocks have contributed an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - Western Digital currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), with a 9.55% rise in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [5] Valuation Metrics - Western Digital is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 12.62, which is lower than its industry's Forward P/E of 15.14 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.91, compared to the average PEG ratio of 2.32 for the Computer-Storage Devices industry [6] Industry Context - The Computer-Storage Devices industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector, holding a Zacks Industry Rank of 39, placing it in the top 16% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Western Digital Corporation (WDC) has achieved a significant turnaround in profitability, with non-GAAP gross margin increasing from 28.7% in fiscal 2024 to 39.4% in fiscal 2025, and operating income rising 578% to $2,326 million from $343 million [1][7] - The recovery is attributed to cyclical cloud demand, cost control, and strategic decisions such as spinning off the SanDisk flash business, enhancing margins and cash flow [1][7] - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting non-GAAP revenues of $2.7 billion, a 22% increase year over year, and non-GAAP earnings of $1.54 for the next quarter [4][7] Financial Performance - In the fiscal fourth quarter, WDC reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 41.3%, up 610 basis points year over year, exceeding guidance [3] - Non-GAAP operating expenses decreased by 16% year over year to $345 million, while non-GAAP operating income rose 147% year over year to $732 million [3] - The company shipped 190 exabytes in the fourth quarter, a 32% year-over-year increase, driven by demand for nearline drives and high-capacity products [2] Market Position and Technology - WDC maintains a strong position in the global HDD market, with its ePMR and UltraSMR technologies offering reliability and low total cost of ownership [2] - The company is advancing next-generation HAMR drives, expected to qualify in 2027, and anticipates continued demand for high-capacity drives [2] - The competitive landscape includes major players like Seagate, Pure Storage, and others, with pricing pressure being a persistent concern [5] Competitive Analysis - Seagate reported a 32% year-over-year increase in HDD revenues, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 37.9% [6] - Pure Storage, focusing on all-flash storage solutions, expects a revenue increase of 10.6% year over year for the fiscal second quarter [8] Stock Performance and Valuation - WDC shares have gained 26.1% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Computer-Storage Devices industry, which fell by 7.1% [9] - The forward price/earnings ratio for WDC is 12.89X, lower than the industry average of 17.86X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WDC's earnings for fiscal 2026 has been revised up 14% to $6.50 [11]

Core Viewpoint - Western Digital (WDC) has shown strong stock performance, with a 14.8% increase over the past month and a 32.9% gain since the start of the year, outperforming both the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the Zacks Computer-Storage Devices industry [1] Financial Performance - Western Digital has consistently exceeded earnings expectations, reporting an EPS of $1.66 against a consensus estimate of $1.48 in its last earnings report on July 30, 2025 [2] - For the current fiscal year, the company is projected to achieve earnings of $6.5 per share on revenues of $10.92 billion, reflecting a 31.85% increase in EPS but a 17.76% decrease in revenues [3] - The next fiscal year forecasts earnings of $7.11 per share on revenues of $11.28 billion, indicating year-over-year changes of 9.38% in EPS and 3.32% in revenues [3] Valuation Metrics - The stock currently trades at 12.2 times the current fiscal year EPS estimates, below the peer industry average of 14.4 times [7] - On a trailing cash flow basis, Western Digital trades at 13.1 times, compared to the peer group's average of 15.3 times [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.88, which does not place it among the top tier of stocks from a value perspective [7] Style Scores and Zacks Rank - Western Digital has a Value Score of B, a Growth Score of B, and a Momentum Score of D, resulting in a combined VGM Score of B [6] - The stock holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), supported by a solid earnings estimate revision trend, indicating potential for further gains [8]

Group 1: Zacks Premium Overview - Zacks Premium offers various tools for investors to enhance their stock market strategies, including daily updates on Zacks Rank and Industry Rank, access to the Zacks 1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens [1][2] - The service includes Zacks Style Scores, which are designed to help investors identify stocks with the best potential to outperform the market in the short term [2] Group 2: Zacks Style Scores - Zacks Style Scores categorize stocks into ratings of A, B, C, D, or F based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics, with higher scores indicating a better chance of outperforming the market [3] - The Value Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks using financial ratios such as P/E, PEG, and Price/Cash Flow [3] - The Growth Score emphasizes a company's financial health and future growth potential by analyzing projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow [4] - The Momentum Score helps investors capitalize on price trends by evaluating recent price changes and earnings estimate revisions [5] - The VGM Score combines all three Style Scores to provide a comprehensive assessment of stocks based on value, growth, and momentum [6] Group 3: Zacks Rank and Stock Selection - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that uses earnings estimate revisions to guide investors in building successful portfolios, with 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically achieving an average annual return of +23.75% since 1988 [7][9] - To maximize returns, investors should focus on stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B, while also considering the direction of earnings estimate revisions [9][10] Group 4: Company Spotlight - Western Digital - Western Digital Corporation is a leading developer and manufacturer of data storage devices, offering a range of HDD and Flash storage solutions for various consumer electronics [11] - The company holds a 1 (Strong Buy) rating on the Zacks Rank and has a VGM Score of B, with a Value Style Score of B due to a forward P/E ratio of 11.64, indicating attractive valuation metrics [12] - Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates by analysts have increased the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 to $6.50 per share, with an average earnings surprise of +6.8% [12][13]

Core Insights - Western Digital Corporation (WDC) shares have increased by 51.8% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computer-Storage Devices industry, which rose by 13.3% [1] - The surge in WDC's stock is primarily driven by strong demand in cloud services and AI-related storage needs [1][8] - WDC has outperformed competitors such as Seagate Technology Holdings (STX), Pure Storage (PSTG), and NetApp (NTAP) during the same period [2] Company Growth Trends - WDC has transitioned to a pure-play HDD company following the spinoff of its Flash/SSD business into SanDisk, enhancing its margins and cash flow [4] - The company shipped 190 exabytes in the last quarter, a 32% year-over-year increase, driven by demand for nearline drives and high-capacity products [5] - WDC's ePMR and UltraSMR technologies are noted for their reliability and low total cost of ownership, with next-generation HAMR drives expected to qualify by 2027 [5][10] Financial Performance - WDC reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 41.3%, up 610 basis points year-over-year, exceeding guidance due to higher-capacity drive sales [12] - Operating expenses decreased by 16% to $345 million, indicating improved efficiency and business momentum [12] - The company has initiated a $2 billion share buyback program and started a quarterly cash dividend, repurchasing approximately 2.8 million shares for $149 million in the fiscal fourth quarter [13] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - WDC remains a key player in the global data storage market, with HDDs being the most cost-effective option for large-scale storage [5][10] - The rapid growth of AI is enhancing WDC's platforms business, which focuses on high-density systems for infrastructure providers [11] - Competitors like Seagate are advancing with HAMR technology to meet rising storage demands, while WDC emphasizes hardware solutions [14][15] Future Outlook - WDC anticipates continued revenue growth and increased profitability due to rising demand for high-capacity drives [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WDC's earnings for fiscal 2026 has been revised up by 13.4% to $6.50, indicating positive market sentiment [19] - Despite macroeconomic challenges, WDC is well-positioned to benefit from emerging market dynamics and strong product demand [21]

Industry Overview - The computer storage devices industry is expected to benefit from the growth in cloud computing, IoT, connected devices, virtual reality, and AI, leading to increased demand for robust data storage solutions [1][2] - Companies are leveraging AI for IT operations and machine learning to optimize storage solutions, while virtualization technologies are being used to streamline data storage [2] Company Highlights Western Digital Corp. (WDC) - WDC is experiencing strong demand in the cloud market, which constitutes 90% of its total revenue, with a 36% increase in the last reported quarter driven by high-capacity nearline HDDs [4] - The company has doubled shipments of 26TB CMR and 32TB UltraSMR drives and plans to ramp up HAMR drives by the first half of 2027 [4] - WDC anticipates that the rise of generative AI will lead to a refresh cycle in client and consumer devices, boosting storage needs across various sectors [5] - The fiscal first-quarter 2026 revenue forecast is $2.7 billion (+/- $100 million), reflecting a 22% increase [6] NetApp Inc. (NTAP) - NTAP is benefiting from a strong all-flash portfolio and has seen a five-fold growth in its AI business year over year [10][11] - The company has secured over 150 AI and data lake modernization deals in the last quarter and is expanding its AI ecosystem with major tech partners [11] - The fiscal 2026 revenue estimate is $6.75 billion, indicating a 2.7% year-over-year improvement [12] Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) - DELL has secured $12.1 billion in AI server orders, driven by strong demand for AI-optimized servers amid digital transformation [14] - The company is expanding its cloud services and infrastructure solutions, with a focus on multi-cloud solutions through its APEX platform [16] - The fiscal 2026 revenue estimate is $111.29 billion, suggesting a 6.7% year-over-year improvement [19]

Core Viewpoint - The comparison between Western Digital (WDC) and Pure Storage (PSTG) indicates that WDC is more attractive to value investors due to its stronger earnings outlook and better valuation metrics [1][3]. Valuation Metrics - WDC has a forward P/E ratio of 11.67, significantly lower than PSTG's forward P/E of 31.47 [5]. - WDC's PEG ratio is 0.85, while PSTG's PEG ratio is 1.69, suggesting WDC is more undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth [5]. - WDC's P/B ratio stands at 4.98, compared to PSTG's P/B of 14.99, further indicating WDC's relative undervaluation [6]. Zacks Rank and Style Scores - WDC holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), while PSTG has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), reflecting a stronger improvement in WDC's earnings outlook [3][6]. - WDC's Value grade is B, contrasting with PSTG's Value grade of F, highlighting WDC's superior valuation metrics [6].

Core Insights - The rapid adoption of Agentic AI is increasing the demand for unstructured data storage, with Western Digital Corporation (WDC) leveraging this technology to enhance product development and efficiency [1][2] - The demand for scalable storage solutions is rising as data becomes crucial for AI-driven innovation, with HDDs providing unmatched cost efficiency and reliability [2] - WDC's product demand is growing, with significant shipments of high-capacity drives, reflecting a strong market position [3][5] Company Performance - WDC reported a 30% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.61 billion, driven by high-capacity HDD storage for cloud and generative AI workloads [5][10] - The company projects a 22% year-over-year revenue growth for the fiscal first quarter, estimating revenues of $2.7 billion (+/- $100 million) [5][10] - Shipments of PMR drives exceeding 26 terabytes more than doubled sequentially, surpassing 1.7 million units in the June quarter [3][10] Competitive Landscape - WDC competes with major players like Seagate Technology and Pure Storage in the storage and data market [6] - Seagate reported a 30% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.44 billion, driven by demand from cloud, AI, and edge computing [8] - Pure Storage focuses on software-defined all-flash solutions, enhancing performance for unstructured data workloads [9] Market Outlook - WDC's platforms business is accelerating due to the growth of AI, positioning the company to serve infrastructure providers and AI companies [4] - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, WDC expects revenues to grow 11% to $3.5 billion for fiscal 2026, supported by strong demand for its product offerings [11] - WDC shares have gained 18.4% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Computer-Storage Devices industry [12]