Close-up of logo for Dell computers on a computer peripheral in an office, August 21, 2019. (Photo by Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images)Getty ImagesWestern Digital (WDC) stock shows stronger revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and a relatively lower valuation compared to Dell Technologies (DELL), suggesting investors may find WDC a more compelling opportunity.WDC’s quarterly revenue growth was 30.0%, versus DELL’s 19.0%.Its last twelve months’ revenue growth reached 39.2%, surpassing D ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets have continued to rise in 2025, with major indexes like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 1.9%, 3.5%, and 5.6% respectively in August [1] - The gains are attributed to expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, strong second-quarter earnings, and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence [1][8] Investment Picks - Five stocks with favorable Zacks Rank and momentum for October are Analog Devices Inc. (ADI), Carnival Corp. & plc (CCL), Western Digital Corp. (WDC), DocuSign Inc. (DOCU), and Workday Inc. (WDAY) [2][8] - Each of these stocks has a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and a Zacks Momentum Score of A or B [2] Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) - ADI has shown broad-based recovery, margin resilience, and strong free cash flow generation, driven by growth in automation, AI infrastructure, and automotive electrification [5][9] - The company expects a revenue growth rate of 11.8% and an earnings growth rate of 19.4% for the next year [9] Carnival Corp. & plc (CCL) - CCL benefits from resilient travel demand, stronger booking trends, and disciplined cost management, leading to an increase in its full-year 2025 guidance [10][12] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for CCL are 6.3% and 47.9% respectively for the current year [12] Western Digital Corp. (WDC) - WDC is experiencing strong demand in the cloud market, with a 36% surge in revenue from this segment, which constitutes 90% of total revenue [13] - The expected revenue growth rate for WDC is -17.8%, while the earnings growth rate is projected at 34.3% for the current year [17] DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) - DOCU's strength lies in its subscription revenues, which have been the majority of its top line, and it continues to grow internationally [18][20] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for DOCU are 7.1% and 3.9% respectively for the current year [20] Workday Inc. (WDAY) - WDAY's diversified product portfolio and cloud-based business model are key growth drivers, with significant investments expected to drive innovation [22][24] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for WDAY are 12.6% and 21.1% respectively for the current year [24]

Industry Overview - The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure segment is experiencing significant growth, driven by increased demand for cloud computing and data centers, with expectations of transformative changes across various sectors over the next five years [1] - The AI infrastructure market is projected to reach $223.45 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 30.4% from 2024 to 2030 [21] Company Summaries Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) - CRDO is focused on high-performance serial connectivity solutions for data centers, 5G, and AI markets, with its Active Electrical Cables (AEC) product line gaining traction due to superior reliability [6][7] - The company has achieved significant design wins, including an 800-gig transceiver DSP, and expects continued growth driven by demand for high-performance solutions in AI servers [10][12] - CRDO anticipates revenue and earnings growth rates exceeding 100% for the current year, with a recent 1.5% improvement in earnings estimates [13] Western Digital Corp. (WDC) - WDC has seen a 36% surge in cloud end market revenue, driven by demand for high-capacity HDDs, and is ramping up production of advanced storage solutions [14] - The adoption of generative AI is expected to drive a refresh cycle in client and consumer devices, increasing storage demand across various sectors [15][16] - WDC's expected revenue growth rate is -17.8%, while earnings are projected to grow by 34.3% for the current year, with a 1.8% improvement in earnings estimates [18] Celestica Inc. (CLS) - CLS is a major player in electronics manufacturing services, benefiting from strong demand in the Connectivity & Cloud Solutions segment, particularly for networking products [19][20] - The company is well-positioned in the AI infrastructure market, with solid investments in data communications and processing infrastructure products [22] - CLS expects revenue and earnings growth rates of 20.6% and 43%, respectively, for the current year, with a 9.9% improvement in earnings estimates [23] Micron Technology Inc. (MU) - MU is a leader in the AI infrastructure boom, driven by strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) solutions and record sales in the data center market [24][25] - The shift towards AI servers is increasing demand for advanced memory solutions, with MU focusing on next-generation DRAM and NAND technologies [26] - MU anticipates revenue and earnings growth rates of 42.4% and over 100%, respectively, for the current year, with a 27% improvement in earnings estimates [27] Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) - UI's adaptable global business model and strong community support enhance its growth potential, with significant investments in inventory to meet rising demand [28][29] - The company maintains a consistent dividend policy while managing a sustainable payout ratio, contributing to its positive outlook [29] - UI expects revenue and earnings growth rates of 12% and 10%, respectively, for the current year, with a 29.7% improvement in earnings estimates [30]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment and Memory Markets - **Key Focus**: Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) market forecasts and company-specific performance in the semiconductor sector Key Points and Arguments WFE Market Outlook - **WFE Estimates Raised**: Global WFE estimates for 2025-2028 have been increased by an average of 10% due to stronger memory spending trends and an uptick in foundry investments [1][9] - **2026 Growth Drivers**: Anticipated $10 billion year-over-year growth in WFE for 2026 is primarily driven by DRAM ($3 billion), NAND ($3 billion), and Foundry ($4 billion) [7][11] - **China's WFE Growth**: Expected to underperform compared to the rest of the world through 2027 as it digests trailing-edge capacity [7] Company-Specific Insights - **Applied Materials (AMAT)**: - **Rating**: Buy - **Expectations**: Anticipated upside to guidance due to improved memory spending outlook despite recent weak guidance and export controls affecting China [2][20] - **Focus Areas**: Investors are expected to monitor commentary on 2026 industry growth, Foundry/Logic spending, and China exposure [20][23] - **Seagate Technology (STX)**: - **Rating**: Buy - **Caution**: Investor expectations are considered elevated, potentially leading to overbought conditions [3] - **Earnings Print**: Awaiting clearer insights on supply-demand balance, especially from large hyperscale customers [3] - **Lam Research (LRCX)**: - **Rating**: Buy - **Expectations**: Anticipated upside due to stronger memory spending, with a focus on 2026 WFE growth and gross margin trajectory [28][30] - **Investor Focus**: Commentary on 2026 growth expectations and updates on customer strategy [30] - **KLA Corporation (KLAC)**: - **Rating**: Neutral - **Expectations**: Modest upside anticipated due to positive memory spending trends, with a focus on 2026 growth commentary and advanced packaging revenue [36][39] - **MKS Instruments (MKSI)**: - **Rating**: Sell - **Expectations**: Slight upside expected, but high financial leverage could dampen performance [45][46] - **Investor Focus**: Memory market strength and gross margin stability [47] - **Teradyne (TER)**: - **Rating**: Sell - **Expectations**: Slight upside anticipated, with a focus on potential merchant GPU wins and Robotics growth [52][54] - **Investor Focus**: VIP market trajectory and updates on large customer announcements [55] Additional Important Insights - **Investor Sentiment**: Overall investor expectations are elevated across the semiconductor sector, particularly in memory and foundry segments, which may lead to volatility in stock performance [1][3][20][29] - **CapEx Trends**: Investors are closely monitoring capital expenditure forecasts from major players in the memory and foundry sectors, as these will significantly influence stock performance in the near term [24][31][40] Conclusion The semiconductor equipment industry is experiencing a positive outlook driven by increased memory and foundry spending. However, elevated investor expectations may pose risks for certain companies, particularly those with high valuations or exposure to export restrictions. Key companies to watch include AMAT, STX, LRCX, KLAC, MKSI, and TER, each with unique challenges and opportunities in the evolving market landscape.

摘要 近线存储需求激增，预计未来三年增长率达 25%，硬盘供应短缺或持续 至 2026 年，为希捷和西部数据带来定价权，推动高容量硬盘采用和 Hammer 技术应用。 云计算资本支出与硬盘收入增长高度相关（R 平方达 0.9），云计算资 本支出持续上调，预示着硬盘收入增长的强劲动力，利好相关企业。 人工智能（AI）推理类型转向多模态，生成图像和视频等数据量远超文 本文件，对数据存储需求构成指数级增长潜力，驱动硬盘需求。 硬盘供应短缺赋予希捷和西部数据定价权，促使客户积极采用更高容量 硬盘，并推动 Hammer 等利润创造技术应用，预计希捷毛利率将在 26 财年末达到 40%水平并持续提升。 西部数据（WD）和希捷（CA）在收益增长和云服务收入占比方面领先 同行，但市盈率估值偏低，企业价值/销售额有显著上涨空间，目标价分 别为 171 美元和 265 美元。 长期强劲硬盘周期不仅利好西部数据和希捷，还使 TDK（硬盘磁头和悬 臂供应商）、Hoya（敲击式磁头玻璃基板供应商）以及 SanDisk、Micron 等存储器公司受益。 Q&A HDD 市场的未来趋势如何？ 我们认为 HDD 周期将会更长久地保持强劲。供 ...

Core Insights - Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is valued at a market cap of $43.7 billion and specializes in data storage devices and solutions based on HDD technology [1] - Analysts expect WDC to report a profit of $1.45 per share for fiscal Q1 2026, a decrease of 6.5% from $1.55 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For fiscal 2026, WDC's expected profit is projected at $6.13 per share, a 35.3% increase from $4.53 per share in fiscal 2025 [3] - WDC's shares have increased by 151.8% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 17.2% and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund's 27.7% [4] - On September 29, WDC shares surged 9.2% following price target upgrades from several investment banks, indicating a strengthening market for HDDs driven by rising data storage demand [5] - Wall Street analysts have a "Strong Buy" rating for WDC, with 18 out of 24 analysts recommending "Strong Buy" and a mean price target of $99.95, while the highest target suggests a 27.7% upside potential [6]

Company Performance - Western Digital (WDC) closed at $125.28, reflecting a -4.59% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.37% gain [1] - Over the past month, WDC shares have appreciated by 42.67%, significantly outperforming the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 8.04% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.26% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming earnings disclosure is anticipated to report an EPS of $1.58, indicating an 11.24% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $2.7 billion, representing a 34.03% decline from the corresponding quarter of the previous year [2] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $6.62 per share and revenue of $10.92 billion, reflecting changes of +34.28% and -17.76% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Western Digital indicate the dynamic nature of near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analyst optimism [3] Zacks Rank and Valuation - The Zacks Rank system, which includes estimate changes, currently ranks Western Digital as 1 (Strong Buy), with a historical average annual gain of +25% for 1 stocks since 1988 [5] - The Forward P/E ratio for Western Digital is 19.84, aligning with the industry average, while the PEG ratio stands at 1.02, compared to the industry average of 2.08 [6] Industry Context - The Computer-Storage Devices industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 86, placing it in the top 35% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that top-rated industries outperform lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is experiencing significant growth due to increasing demand for high-capacity storage driven by cloud computing and AI [1] - The company is focused on innovation, delivering high-capacity drives with enhanced performance and energy efficiency [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the fiscal fourth quarter, WDC shipped 190 exabytes of storage, a 32% increase year over year, with strong demand for nearline drives and significant growth in 26TB CMR and 32TB UltraSMR products [2] - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, WDC anticipates non-GAAP revenues of $2.7 billion, representing a 22% year-over-year increase, and non-GAAP earnings of $1.54 [5] Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - WDC's ePMR and UltraSMR technologies are crucial for success in the data center market, with plans to advance to next-generation HAMR drives, expected to ramp up in the first half of 2027 [3] - The company is also focusing on infrastructure solutions for AI/ML and software-defined storage, targeting hyperscale cloud service providers [4] Group 3: Market Position and Competition - WDC faces competition from companies like Seagate, Pure Storage, Hitachi, Samsung, and Intel in the storage market [6] - Despite strong growth, customer concentration and a leveraged balance sheet are concerns for the company [6] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, WDC shares have increased by 97.7%, outperforming the Zacks Computer-Storage Devices industry, which grew by 35.1% [10] - WDC's shares are trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 19.87X, lower than the industry's 22.68X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WDC's earnings for fiscal 2026 has been revised up by 1.85% to $6.62 per share [12]

市场的逆转根植于存储制造业的周期性，但此次被AI和超大规模数据中心的需求无限放大。 据行业数据显示，2023年下半年，曾跌至历史低点的512Gb TLC NAND闪存现货价格在六个月内上涨超 过100%，合约价也随之跟进。该媒体监测的市场价格显示，到2024年初，西部数据2TB Black SN850X 的售价已突破150美元，而三星990 Pro 2TB则从假日期间的约120美元低点跃升至175美元以上。 DRAM市场的复苏比NAND晚了一个季度，但模式如出一辙。据调研机构TrendForce预测，2025年第三 季度，PC级DDR4产品的价格预计将环比猛涨38-43%。甚至连显卡用的GDDR6显存也因供应短缺，据 报道价格上涨了约30%。 AI的"吞噬性"需求 此轮周期的触发点，无疑是人工智能。训练和部署大语言模型需要海量的内存和存储，数据中心内的每 一个GPU节点都能消耗数百GB的DRAM和数TB的闪存。 其采购规模令人瞠目。据Tom's Hardware报道，OpenAI的"星门"项目近期与三星和SK海力士签署了每月 高达90万片DRAM晶圆的供应协议。仅这一数字，就接近全球DRAM产量的40%。 " ...

Core Insights - Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC) has shown significant stock performance, being one of the top performers in Q3 with an increase of nearly 88% for the quarter [1] - The company operates in the data storage sector, alongside Seagate Technology, which also experienced a substantial rise of approximately 64% [1] - The market shows a strong demand for data center solutions, with companies like Micron also performing well [1] Company Overview - Western Digital Corporation designs and supplies a variety of data storage solutions, including internal and external hard drives, portable drives, data center platforms, NAS systems, and related accessories [2]