Key Takeaways Bank stocks fell Monday after President Donald Trump said over the weekend that credit card interest rates should be capped at 10% for at least a year.How a cap would be put in place and why for only a year remains unclear. A number of banking and financial stocks slumped Monday morning after President Donald Trump over the weekend suggested capping credit card interest rates. Trump posted on social media late Friday that Americans are being "ripped off" by interest rates of 20% to 30%, a ...

This week will show just how good 2025 was for the big banks. JPMorgan Chase will lead off bank earnings season on Tuesday morning, followed by Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will finish the week's big bank lineup on Thursday. Here's what to watch for. Expectations are lofty Following a year in which rising asset prices and market volatility once again favored the high-end of the k-shaped economy, analysts are forecasting record annual profits ...

Core Viewpoint - Shares in US banks with credit card businesses have declined following President Trump's demand to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, increasing political pressure on card issuers [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Reaction - Barclays shares fell by as much as 4.8% in early London trading, marking the largest intraday loss since October 17 [3] - In pre-market trading in New York, Capital One's shares dropped by 10%, while American Express fell by 4.9%. Other major US lenders also experienced declines, with Citigroup down 4.3%, JPMorgan down 3%, and Wells Fargo slipping 2.4% [3] Group 2: Impact on Companies - Credit cards are a significant component of Barclays' US consumer bank, which serves around 20 million American customers and has been expanding its credit card offerings [4] - Barclays' US consumer bank is projected to generate £3.6 billion in revenue by 2025, accounting for 12% of the group's total revenue, with credit cards being a crucial element [4] - A potential cap on credit card rates would disproportionately affect Barclays compared to other European banks, as credit cards contribute significantly to its pretax profit [4] Group 3: Political Context - Trump's comments have intensified scrutiny on card issuers, with interest rates on credit cards typically exceeding 20% in recent years, prompting legislative proposals that face strong industry resistance [2] - Trump has set a compliance deadline of January 20 for the proposed interest rate cap, warning that failure to comply would result in legal violations [5]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 第一资本金融股价大跌9.7%，美国运通下跌4.6%。美国主要银行的股价亦普遍走低：花旗下跌4.1%， 摩根大通跌2.8%，富国跌2.2%。 ...

格隆汇1月12日｜第一资本金融股价大跌9.7%，美国运通下跌4.6%。美国主要银行的股价亦普遍走低： 花旗下跌4.1%，摩根大通跌2.8%，富国跌2.2%。消息上，美国总统特朗普呼吁自1月20日起，将信用卡 年利率上限设定为10%，为期一年，但他并未透露该计划将如何落地，也未说明打算如何促使企业遵守 这一要求。 ...

Earnings Reports Overview - Earnings season is commencing with major banks and tech stocks reporting, including Bank of America, Taiwan Semiconductor, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Delta Airlines [1] Implied Volatility Insights - Implied volatility tends to be high before earnings reports due to market uncertainty, leading to increased demand for options [2] - After earnings announcements, implied volatility typically decreases to normal levels [3] Expected Stock Movements - Expected price movements for stocks reporting this week include: - Delta Airlines (DAL) - 6.8% - JP Morgan (JPM) - 3.8% - Bank of America (BAC) - 4.0% - Citigroup (C) - 4.5% - Wells Fargo (WFC) - 4.9% - Goldman Sachs (GS) - 4.4% - Morgan Stanley (MS) - 4.3% - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) - 5.3% - PNC - 3.8% [4][5][6] Trading Strategies - Option traders can utilize expected moves to structure trades, with bearish traders selling bear call spreads and bullish traders selling bull put spreads or considering naked puts [7] - Neutral traders may opt for iron condors, ensuring short strikes remain outside the expected range [7] Risk Management - It is advisable to employ risk-defined strategies and maintain small position sizes when trading options over earnings, limiting potential losses to 1-3% of the portfolio [8] Stock Screening for High Implied Volatility - A stock screener can identify stocks with high implied volatility, focusing on those with total call volume greater than 5,000, market cap over 40 billion, and IV rank above 40% [9][10]

美股第四季度财报季正式拉开帷幕，高盛首席交易员John Flood认为市场对标普500指数的盈利预期"再 次过于保守"，实际表现料将超出共识预期。本周银行股财报将成为市场关键风向标，摩根大通将于周 二率先公布业绩，到2月首周将有68%的标普500成分股完成披露。 高盛指出，共识预期显示标普500第四季度每股收益同比增长7%，但这一预期可能再次偏低。标普500 指数自2023年第一季度以来每个季度都超出了市场共识预期，2025年前三季度均实现两位数盈利增长， 平均超出共识预期6个百分点。 不过，银行股周一盘前遭遇抛售。特朗普上周五在Truth Social上发文称，将从1月20日起实施为期一年 的信用卡利率上限，限制在10%。这一表态令金融股承压，花旗集团盘前跌近4%，摩根大通跌2.88%， 美国银行跌2.36%。 本季度资本支出的走向将对盈利前景产生重要影响，尤其是参与AI基础设施建设的大型科技股。共识 预期显示，超大规模云服务商的资本支出同比增速将从第三季度的75%放缓至第四季度的54%，到2026 年底进一步降至24%。高盛预计AI支出将再次超出共识预期，但同意2026年AI资本支出增速可能放缓。 银行股 ...

Market Performance - Wall Street's major equity averages ended positively, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high [1] - Data storage companies saw significant gains, with Sandisk (SNDK) up over +12% and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) rising more than +6% [1] - Chip stocks advanced, led by Intel (INTC) which surged over +10% following supportive comments from President Trump [1] - Vistra (VST) and Oklo (OKLO) also experienced notable increases of over +10% and +7% respectively after securing power supply agreements with Meta Platforms [1] - Qualcomm (QCOM) faced a decline of over -2% after a downgrade by Mizuho [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported a nonfarm payroll increase of 50K in December, below the expected 66K, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, better than the anticipated 4.5% [4] - Average hourly earnings rose by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.8% year-over-year, surpassing expectations [4] - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index improved to 54.0 in January, exceeding expectations of 53.5 [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted modest job growth and a low-hiring environment, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding unemployment and inflation risks [5] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described the current phase as "fine-tuning" rather than making large policy changes [5] - U.S. rate futures indicate a 94.3% probability of no rate change and a 5.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. consumer inflation report for December is anticipated to influence expectations for future rate cuts by the Fed [6] - Other significant data releases include U.S. retail sales for November and various indices related to manufacturing and job claims [6] Corporate Earnings - The fourth-quarter earnings season is set to begin, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) reporting this week [8] - Other notable companies scheduled to report include Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) [8] International Market Developments - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index declined by -0.18% amid concerns over Fed independence and President Trump's proposed cap on credit card interest rates [10] - The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index improved to -1.8, better than the expected -5.1 [11] - China's Shanghai Composite Index reached a new 10-year high, driven by advancements in AI and expectations of policy support [12]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% has led to a significant decline in the stock prices of credit card issuers and related companies, raising concerns about the potential impact on their profitability and the credit market overall [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following Trump's announcement, stocks of credit card companies such as Synchrony Financial and Bread Financial fell nearly 10%, while American Express and Citigroup dropped over 4% [1]. - Barclays experienced a significant intraday drop of 4.8%, marking its largest decline since October 17 of the previous year, highlighting the vulnerability of its U.S. retail banking segment, which heavily relies on credit card operations [3]. Group 2: Implications of the Proposal - If implemented, the proposed interest rate cap would result in the lowest credit card rates since 1994, with current average rates at 19.65% for general credit cards and 30.14% for store cards [2]. - Major banking associations have opposed the proposal, arguing it could push consumers towards less regulated and more expensive alternatives, potentially reducing access to credit for lower-income individuals [2]. - A study indicated that a similar interest rate cap in Illinois led to a 38% reduction in loans issued to subprime borrowers within six months, suggesting significant negative effects on credit availability [2]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Barclays' U.S. retail banking division is projected to generate £3.6 billion in revenue by 2025, with credit card operations being a crucial component, contributing significantly to its income despite lower profit margins [3]. - Analysts suggest that any regulatory cap on credit card rates would have a pronounced impact on Barclays compared to European banks, emphasizing the importance of the U.S. market for its credit card business [3].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings reports from major U.S. banks are expected to show record revenues and profits for 2025, indicating a strong performance in the banking sector [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Reports - JPMorgan Chase will report its results on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday [1][2]. - All six major banks are anticipated to report annual profit increases compared to the previous year, with trading fees reaching record levels, except for Wells Fargo [2][3]. Group 2: Market Performance - The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index rose by 29% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500, which increased by 17% [4]. - Analysts predict that 2026 will mark the third consecutive year of outperformance for the banking sector compared to the S&P 500, drawing parallels to previous strong performance periods in the late 1990s and early 2000s [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to reaccelerate in 2026, with favorable regulatory conditions and anticipated lending growth, supported by lower interest rates [5]. - The momentum in M&A activity is expected to continue, with no signs of reversal in the economic factors driving this growth [6].