Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue for the first 26 days of October reached 20.4 billion MOP, with an average daily revenue of 785 million MOP, reflecting pent-up demand during the Golden Week due to previous disruptions from a typhoon and the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The report suggests a significant upward trend in gaming revenue, with total revenue for October potentially reaching 23 billion MOP, marking a 71-month high [1] - Starting from December, due to a low base, the firm anticipates double-digit growth in gaming revenue, maintaining low double-digit increases into the first quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Company Ratings - The company is optimistic about Wynn Macau (01128), assigning an "Overweight" rating, expecting its Q3 performance to exceed expectations [1] - For the medium term, Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is also viewed positively, receiving an "Overweight" rating [1] - The company holds a negative outlook on SJM Holdings (00880) and Melco International (00200), assigning "Neutral" and "Underweight" ratings respectively, citing high valuations relative to fundamentals and limited shareholder returns over the next 12 months [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Macau's gaming revenue for the first 26 days of October reached 20.4 billion MOP, indicating a potential upward trend in gaming revenue due to pent-up demand from the Golden Week holiday [1] Industry Summary - The average daily gaming revenue for October is 785 million MOP, with last week's revenue accelerating to 793 million MOP, reflecting increased activity post-typhoon and mid-autumn festival [1] - The total gaming revenue for October could reach 23 billion MOP, potentially marking a 71-month high [1] - Starting from December, a low base is expected to drive double-digit growth in gaming revenue, continuing into the first quarter of next year with low double-digit increases [1] Company Summary - Wynn Macau (01128) is viewed positively in the short term, with an "Overweight" rating and expectations for third-quarter performance to exceed forecasts [1] - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is also favored in the medium term, receiving an "Overweight" rating [1] - The outlook for SJM Holdings (00880) and Melco International (00200) is less favorable, with "Neutral" and "Underweight" ratings respectively, as their valuations are considered high relative to fundamentals, and shareholder returns over the next 12 months are expected to be limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates a significant potential upward trend in Macau's gaming revenue, with October's total revenue possibly reaching 23 billion MOP, marking a 71-month high [1] Group 1: Gaming Revenue Insights - As of October 26, Macau's gaming revenue reached 20.4 billion MOP, with an average daily revenue of 785 million MOP, showing an acceleration to 793 million MOP in the previous week [1] - The report suggests that the increased revenue may reflect pent-up demand during the Golden Week, as many players shortened their trips due to the typhoon and Mid-Autumn Festival [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that starting from December, gaming revenue is expected to record double-digit growth, maintaining low double-digit increases in the first quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Company Ratings - Morgan Stanley has a positive short-term outlook on Wynn Macau, assigning an "Overweight" rating, anticipating that its third-quarter performance may exceed expectations [1] - The firm also maintains an "Overweight" rating on Galaxy Entertainment, indicating a favorable mid-term outlook [1] - Conversely, Morgan Stanley is less optimistic about SJM Holdings and Melco International, assigning "Neutral" and "Underweight" ratings respectively, citing their valuations as high relative to fundamentals and limited shareholder returns over the next 12 months [1]

Core Insights - The gaming stocks have collectively risen, with Sands China up 5.04%, Wynn Macau up 4.6%, Melco International Development up 4.45%, and Galaxy Entertainment up 3.94% [1] Industry Summary - CICC maintains its forecast for total gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 while raising the forecast for 2026, expecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 5% respectively, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] - The brokerage anticipates mass gaming revenue to grow by 7% and 6% in the next two years, reaching 119% and 126% of 2019 levels [1] - VIP gaming revenue is projected to increase by 19% in 2025 but decrease by 5% in 2026, recovering to 29% and 28% of 2019 levels [1] Company Insights - Huatai Securities notes that despite temporary disruptions from typhoons during the National Day holiday and late September, the number of visitors to Macau has met government expectations and exceeded levels from the same period in 2019 when excluding weather impacts [1] - The daily gaming revenue during the National Day holiday showed a slight year-on-year increase [1] - Key drivers for the sector post-holiday include policies like "one permit, multiple entries" between Zhuhai and Macau, the wealth effect from "gold stocks," and the synergistic effects of non-gaming events such as the NBA China Games and the National Games [1]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks collectively rose, with Sands China increasing by 5.04% to HKD 18.98, Wynn Macau up by 4.6% to HKD 6.59, Melco International Development rising by 4.45% to HKD 4.69, and Galaxy Entertainment gaining 3.94% to HKD 38.48 [1] - CICC maintains its forecast for total gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 while raising the forecast for 2026, expecting total gaming revenue to grow by 9% and 5% year-on-year for the next two years, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] - The firm anticipates mass gaming revenue to grow by 7% and 6% year-on-year for the next two years, recovering to 119% and 126% of 2019 levels, while VIP gaming revenue is expected to grow by 19% in 2025 and decline by 5% in 2026, recovering to 29% and 28% of 2019 levels [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities estimates that the number of visitors to Macau, after excluding weather impacts, aligns with government expectations and exceeds levels from the same period in 2019, with daily gaming revenue during the National Day holiday showing a slight year-on-year increase [1] - The core drivers for the gaming sector post-holiday include policy benefits from the "one permit, multiple entries" scheme, the wealth effect from "gold stocks," and the synergistic effects of non-gaming events such as the NBA China Games and the National Games [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Wynn Macau (01128.HK) increased by nearly 4% on October 20, reaching a price of 6.54 HKD per share [1] - As of the report, the stock was up 3.81% with a trading volume of 30.22 million HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has issued a "Buy" rating for Wynn Macau, setting a target price of HKD 7.2, which corresponds to an estimated enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of approximately 7.3 times for 2026 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Wynn Macau's stock has increased nearly 4%, currently trading at HKD 6.54 with a transaction volume of HKD 30.22 million [1] - Despite a continuous decline in market share since 2025, Citigroup believes that the completion of the "Chairman's Club" VIP gaming area expansion in the first quarter of next year will positively impact the company's performance [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - The market generally anticipates a year-on-year EBITDA growth of about 7% for Macau gaming operators in the third quarter of this year [1] - Citigroup projects that Wynn's EBITDA may increase by 17% year-on-year during the same period, indicating a potential outperformance compared to the market [1] - Wynn Macau has been placed on Citigroup's 30-day upward catalyst watchlist, suggesting that positive stock price momentum may occur around the time of the company's earnings announcement next month [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wynn Macau's stock has seen an increase of nearly 4%, currently trading at HKD 6.54, with a trading volume of HKD 30.22 million. Citigroup has issued a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 7.2, reflecting a projected enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of approximately 7.3 times for 2026 [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Citigroup is optimistic about Wynn Macau's increasing investment in the high-end mass gaming segment, despite a continuous decline in market share since 2025 [1]. - The completion of the "Chairman's Club" VIP gaming area expansion in the first quarter of next year is expected to positively impact Wynn's market position [1]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The market generally anticipates a year-on-year EBITDA growth of about 7% for Macau gaming operators in the third quarter of this year, while Citigroup forecasts a 17% year-on-year increase for Wynn during the same period [1]. - Wynn Macau has been placed on Citigroup's 30-day upward catalyst watchlist, suggesting potential positive stock price momentum ahead of the company's earnings announcement next month [1].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has placed Wynn Macau on a 30-day watchlist for upward catalysts, anticipating a potential outperformance in the stock price ahead of the company's earnings announcement next month [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The market expects Macau gaming operators to see a year-on-year EBITDA growth of approximately 7% for the third quarter, while Citigroup projects Wynn's EBITDA to increase by 17% during the same period [1] - This anticipated strong performance is expected to translate into positive stock price momentum for Wynn [1] Group 2: Investment Rating and Target Price - Citigroup currently rates Wynn as a "Buy," highlighting the company's increasing investment in the high-end mass market segment [1] - Despite a continuous decline in market share for Wynn this year, it is believed that the completion of the Chairman's Club VIP gaming area expansion in the first quarter of next year will improve the situation [1] - The target price for Wynn is set at HKD 7.2, corresponding to an estimated enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of approximately 7.3 times for 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% year-on-year increase in Macau's gaming industry EBITDA for Q3, with gaming revenue expected to rise by 12.5%. However, the overall EBITDA margin is anticipated to decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] Industry Summary - The gaming industry in Macau is projected to see a year-on-year EBITDA increase of 9% for Q3 [1] - Gaming revenue is expected to grow by 12.5% in the same period [1] - The overall EBITDA margin is expected to decline compared to both the previous year and the previous quarter [1] - For Q4, gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by over 10% year-on-year [1] - The industry's EV/EBITDA forecast for this year is 10 times, which is lower than the 15-year average of 12.8 times, potentially allowing Macau gaming stocks to outperform the market [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Wynn Macau (01128) due to its increasing market share, high yield, and attractive valuation [1]