Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) has seen its stock price drop over 30% from its peak in June, with a current price of 42.1 HKD, reflecting a decline of 3.08% as of the latest report [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price of Xiaomi has decreased by over 30% since its highest point in June [1] - As of the latest report, the stock is trading at 42.1 HKD with a trading volume of 30.76 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Hedge Fund Activity - Recent data from Goldman Sachs indicates a 53% increase in short positions against Xiaomi by hedge funds over the past week [1] - The selling pressure from pension funds and hedge funds has dominated the market in the last two weeks [1] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is turning cautious ahead of Xiaomi's third-quarter earnings report scheduled for November 18 [1] - Hedge funds view Xiaomi as a consensus short/sell target in the short term due to a lack of catalysts [1] Group 4: Analyst Downgrades - Goldman Sachs has recently lowered its target price for Xiaomi, citing several factors [1] - Key reasons for the downgrade include rising storage chip prices impacting smartphone gross margins, a slowdown in AIoT business growth to single digits, and delays in the second phase of electric vehicle factory affecting deliveries [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock has declined over 30% from its peak in June, with a current drop of 3.08% to HKD 42.1, amid increasing short-selling activity by hedge funds [1][1][1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiaomi's stock price has fallen to HKD 42.1, representing a decline of over 30% since June's highest point [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 30.76 billion, indicating significant market activity [1] Group 2: Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge fund short positions on Xiaomi surged by 53% in the past week, reflecting growing bearish sentiment [1] - Recent data shows that selling pressure from pension funds and hedge funds has dominated the market in the last two weeks [1] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is turning cautious ahead of Xiaomi's third-quarter earnings report scheduled for November 18 [1] - Feedback from hedge funds suggests that Xiaomi is viewed as a consensus short/sell target in the short term due to a lack of catalysts [1] Group 4: Analyst Outlook - Goldman Sachs has lowered its target price for Xiaomi, citing rising storage chip prices that suppress smartphone gross margins [1] - The growth rate of Xiaomi's AIoT business has slowed to single digits, and delays in the electric vehicle phase two factory are impacting deliveries [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In October 2025, a total of 94 Hong Kong-listed companies initiated share buybacks, with a cumulative repurchase of 525 million shares and a total amount of HKD 9.372 billion, representing a 1.09% increase compared to HKD 9.271 billion in the same period last year [1][2]. Company-Specific Insights - Notable companies that increased their buyback efforts in October include Xiaomi Group-W, China Feihe, and Kangning Jereh Pharmaceutical-B, with Xiaomi's buyback amounting to HKD 1.284 billion for 26.77 million shares [7]. - Tencent Holdings and HSBC Holdings also ranked among the top companies in terms of buyback amounts in October [2]. - The buyback amounts for Tencent Holdings, HSBC Holdings, and Xiaomi Group-W were HKD 491.6 million, HKD 2.678 billion, and HKD 1.284 billion respectively [4][7]. Industry Trends - The majority of companies initiating buybacks in October 2025 were concentrated in the software services and other healthcare sectors [8][11]. - The software services industry led in both the total buyback amount (HKD 3.641 billion) and the number of companies involved (13 companies) [8][10]. - The other healthcare sector had 11 companies participating in buybacks, with notable increases from companies like Meili Tianyuan Medical Health and Yidu Technology [11].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 小米集团 (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2025年11月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | | 股份類別 | B | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01810 | | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81810 | RMB | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 200,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0000025 | USD | | 500,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that market sentiment is turning cautious ahead of Xiaomi Group-W's (01810) earnings report, with hedge funds increasing their short positions significantly [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge fund short positions in Xiaomi have increased by 53% over the past week, according to Goldman Sachs' sales department [1] - Institutional trading led by pension funds and hedge funds has shown a net selling trend over the past two weeks [1] - Hedge funds view Xiaomi as a consensus short/sell target in the short term due to a lack of catalysts [1] Group 2: Factors Affecting Market Sentiment - Concerns over safety, production delays, and weak demand for electric vehicles despite recent promotional activities are contributing to negative market sentiment [1] - Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply compared to earlier this year when optimism about Xiaomi's entry into the electric vehicle sector had driven its stock price up [1] Group 3: Stock Performance and Analyst Predictions - Xiaomi's stock price has fallen over 25% since peaking in early July [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts have lowered Xiaomi's target price by more than 10% due to profit margin pressures from rising memory chip prices [1] - The company is expected to report a 23% year-over-year revenue growth in its third-quarter earnings on November 18 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that as Xiaomi Group-W (01810) approaches its earnings report, market sentiment is becoming cautious, leading hedge funds to increase their short positions against the company [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Hedge Fund Activity - In the past week, short positions on Xiaomi have increased by 53% in Goldman Sachs' main trading book [1] - Institutional trading led by pension funds and hedge funds has shown a net selling trend over the past two weeks [1] - Hedge funds view Xiaomi as a consensus short/sell target in the short term due to a lack of catalysts [1] Group 2: Factors Affecting Market Sentiment - Concerns over safety, production delays, and weak demand for electric vehicles despite recent promotional activities are negatively impacting market sentiment [1] - Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply compared to earlier this year when optimism about Xiaomi's entry into the electric vehicle sector had driven its stock price up [1] Group 3: Stock Performance and Analyst Predictions - Since peaking in early July, Xiaomi's stock price has fallen by over 25% [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts have recently lowered Xiaomi's target price by more than 10% due to profit margin pressure from rising memory chip prices [1] - The company is expected to announce a 23% year-over-year revenue growth in its third-quarter earnings report on November 18 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][5]. Core Views - Xiaomi is accelerating its high-end smartphone offerings, with the recent launch of the Xiaomi 17 series achieving record sales within minutes of release. The company aims to mitigate storage cost pressures through product structure optimization [1]. - The automotive segment is showing promising growth, with 400,000 units delivered within a year and monthly deliveries exceeding 40,000 units in September and October 2025. The company is expected to achieve breakeven in quarterly automotive operations [2]. - Despite a slowdown in national subsidies for IoT products, Xiaomi's competitive edge in the IoT sector remains strong due to product quality and supply chain management [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 270.97 billion CNY in 2023 to 748.7 billion CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -3%, 35%, 29%, 31%, and 22% respectively [4][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from 19.27 billion CNY in 2023 to 79.53 billion CNY in 2027, with significant growth rates of 126%, 41%, 55%, 46%, and 29% [4][10]. - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin of approximately 11% for Q3 and Q4 2025, despite rising storage costs [1]. Market Position - Xiaomi holds a 14% market share in the global smartphone market, ranking among the top three manufacturers. In China, it has a 15% market share, placing it fourth [1]. - The company has successfully entered the high-end smartphone market, with the Xiaomi 17 Pro Max leading sales in the new series [1]. Automotive Business - Xiaomi has delivered 400,000 vehicles since the launch of its automotive products, with a strategy to provide tax subsidies to enhance consumer benefits [2]. - The automotive division is expected to reach a quarterly breakeven point as delivery volumes increase [2]. IoT and Consumer Products - The IoT business is projected to maintain robust competitiveness despite reduced national subsidies, supported by Xiaomi's product quality and supply chain capabilities [2].

Core Viewpoint - Citi expects Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 22% and adjusted net profit growth of 60% in Q3, reaching RMB 112.9 billion and RMB 10 billion respectively, driven by robust electric vehicle sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q3 is projected to be RMB 112.9 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 10 billion, reflecting significant growth compared to the previous year [1] - For Q4, Xiaomi is anticipated to see a 15% year-on-year increase in total revenue and a 16% increase in adjusted net profit, primarily due to a recovery in smartphone sales and continued growth in electric vehicle deliveries [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The smartphone segment may experience a 3% year-on-year decline in revenue due to decreased shipments in China and India [1] - The AIoT business is expected to slow down to a 5% year-on-year growth rate, impacted by reduced subsidies for trade-in programs [1] - Electric vehicle deliveries are projected to rise to 109,000 units, with an average price of approximately RMB 260,000, and the segment may have reached breakeven [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The approval of Xiaomi's second electric vehicle factory is seen as a catalyst for stock price revaluation, with a target price set at HKD 69 [1] - Despite challenges in the AIoT segment due to a higher base effect, the overall outlook remains positive with expectations of recovery in smartphone sales and sustained electric vehicle growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi expects Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 22% and a 60% increase in adjusted net profit in Q3, reaching RMB 112.9 billion and RMB 10 billion respectively, driven by robust electric vehicle sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 total revenue is projected to be RMB 112.9 billion, with adjusted net profit at RMB 10 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% and 60% respectively [1] - For Q4, total revenue and adjusted net profit are expected to grow by 15% and 16% year-on-year, attributed to a recovery in smartphone sales and continued growth in electric vehicle deliveries [1] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Segment - The approval of Xiaomi's second electric vehicle factory is anticipated to act as a catalyst for stock price revaluation [1] - Electric vehicle deliveries are expected to rise to 109,000 units, with an average price of approximately RMB 260,000, and the segment may have already achieved breakeven [1] Group 3: Smartphone and AIoT Business - Xiaomi's smartphone revenue may decline by 3% year-on-year due to decreased shipments in China and India [1] - The AIoT business is projected to slow down to a year-on-year growth of 5% due to reduced subsidies for trade-ins [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun emphasizes the importance of continuous vehicle testing for Xiaomi Auto, stating that it is essential for ensuring product quality throughout the entire product lifecycle [1]. Group 1 - Xiaomi Auto's testing process spans the entire product lifecycle, with pre-production testing aimed at validating design and post-production testing focused on enhancing user experience [1]. - The company believes that thorough and scientific testing is a prerequisite for guaranteeing product quality [1].