油田既能让人迅速暴富，也能让人轻易破产。1901年，得克萨斯州的纺锤顶油井（Spindletop）井喷，标志着现代石油 工业的开始，同时也导致油价暴跌。仅仅两年后，过度开采就使该油田走向衰落。 诚然，如今的石油行业规模大得多，也更为复杂精细。但即便在强大的二叠纪盆地（Permian Basin），这个让美国成 为世界最大石油生产国的地方，资源最终也会枯竭。有迹象表明，顶峰时刻就在眼前。 二十年前，美国每天原油产量已经降至约500万桶，比上世纪70年代减少了一半。就连像阿拉斯加北坡这样偏远的油田 产量也在下降，而且开采额外一桶石油的成本不断上升，石油行业似乎即将崩溃。 转机出现在工程师们想出了水力压裂技术——即将水、沙子和化学物质的混合物以极高的压力注入页岩层，使页岩层 破裂，从而开采出其中蕴藏的天然气和石油。这一方法在北达科他州和阿巴拉契亚地区的油田取得了成效，但或许没 有哪个地方比得克萨斯州的二叠纪盆地更受益。仅这个油田现在每天的产量就超过600万桶，几乎占美国目前石油产量 的一半，比技术革命前美国的原油总产量还多。 二叠纪盆地引领了美国原油生产 虽然水力压裂技术开辟了大量新的石油储备，但它并没有改变基本的 ...

Core Insights - Exxon Mobil reported $83.13 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, a slight year-over-year increase of 0.1%, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.22% [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $1.76, compared to $2.06 a year ago, with a surprise of 1.15% over the consensus estimate of $1.74 [1] Financial Performance - Oil-equivalent production per day was 4,551 KBOE/D, slightly below the average estimate of 4,570.89 KBOE/D [4] - Natural gas production available for sale per day in Europe was 331 Mcf/D, below the estimate of 347.38 Mcf/D; in Africa, it was 118 Mcf/D versus 143.66 Mcf/D; and in Asia, it was 3,457 Mcf/D, exceeding the estimate of 3,279.76 Mcf/D [4] - Upstream revenues in the United States reached $7.32 billion, significantly above the estimate of $5.72 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 234.2% [4] - Upstream revenues from Non-U.S. operations were $3.96 billion, exceeding the estimate of $3.24 billion, with a year-over-year change of 12.3% [4] - Energy Products revenues in the United States were $23.89 billion, slightly below the estimate of $24.43 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 3.7% [4] - Specialty Products revenues from Non-U.S. operations were $3.03 billion, significantly below the estimate of $5.31 billion, with a year-over-year decrease of 4% [4] - Total revenues from sales and other operating revenue were $81.06 billion, below the estimate of $84.12 billion, but showing a year-over-year increase of 0.8% [4] - Other income was reported at $703 million, below the estimate of $831.78 million [4] - Income from equity affiliates was $1.37 billion, exceeding the estimate of $1.17 billion, but reflecting a year-over-year decline of 25.7% [4] - Total revenues from Energy Products were $59.96 billion, below the estimate of $63.39 billion, with a year-over-year decrease of 6.6% [4] Stock Performance - Exxon shares returned +1.8% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. reported mixed first-quarter 2025 results, with both companies exceeding earnings estimates but falling short on revenue expectations due to declining crude oil prices [1] Earnings in Focus - Exxon reported earnings per share of $1.76, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72, but down from $2.06 year-over-year. Revenue was $83.13 billion, missing the estimate of $84.49 billion but slightly improving from $83.08 billion a year ago [2] - Chevron's earnings per share were $2.18, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.15, but down from $2.93 year-over-year. Revenue decreased by 2% year-over-year to $47.6 billion, missing the consensus mark of $48.7 billion [3] ETFs in Focus - **Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)**: The largest energy ETF with $26.3 billion in assets under management (AUM) and an average daily volume of 24 million shares. It holds 23 securities, with Exxon and Chevron at 23.7% and 15.1% allocations, respectively [4] - **Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE)**: Tracks 112 energy stocks with $6.6 billion in AUM and an average volume of 730,000 shares. Exxon and Chevron have allocations of 23.8% and 14.1%, respectively [6] - **iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE)**: Tracks the Russell 1000 Energy Index, holding 41 stocks with Exxon and Chevron at 23.1% and 14.1% allocations, respectively. It has $1.1 billion in AUM and an average daily volume of 735,000 shares [7][8] - **Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY)**: Follows the MSCI USA IMI Energy Index, holding 110 stocks with Exxon and Chevron at 23.7% and 14.1% allocations, respectively. It has $1.3 billion in AUM and trades around 2 million shares daily [9][10] - **Strive U.S. Energy ETF (DRLL)**: Seeks broad market exposure to the U.S. energy sector, holding 41 stocks with Exxon and Chevron at 24.3% and 20.7% allocations, respectively. It has $256 million in AUM and an average daily volume of 53,000 shares [11]

Financial Performance - ExxonMobil's Q1 2025 earnings were $7.7 billion, a decrease from $8.2 billion in Q1 2024, primarily due to declining refining margins and higher expenses[60] - Upstream earnings totaled $6.756 billion in Q1 2025, compared to $5.660 billion in Q1 2024, with U.S. earnings at $1.870 billion and non-U.S. earnings at $4.886 billion[61] - Total earnings for Energy Products in Q1 2025 were $827 million, a decrease of 40% from $1,376 million in Q1 2024[73] - Chemical Products reported total earnings of $273 million in Q1 2025, down 65% from $785 million in Q1 2024[79] - Specialty Products earnings decreased to $655 million in Q1 2025, compared to $761 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a decline of 14%[86] - Cash flow from operations and asset sales was $14.8 billion in Q1 2025, a decrease of $0.6 billion from the prior year[93] Production and Operations - Net production of oil-equivalent barrels per day increased to 4.6 million in Q1 2025, up 767,000 barrels per day from Q1 2024, largely due to the Pioneer acquisition[68] - Advantaged volume growth contributed an increase of $920 million to earnings, driven by production growth in the Permian and Guyana[64] - Refinery throughput in the United States was 1,789 thousand barrels daily in Q1 2025, down from 1,900 thousand barrels daily in Q1 2024[78] Expenses and Capital Expenditures - Cash capital expenditures rose to $5.9 billion in Q1 2025, an increase of $0.7 billion from the previous year[60] - Total cash operating expenses (excluding energy and production taxes) were $10.2 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a decrease of $1.5 billion compared to 2019 levels[59] - Total cash capital expenditures (Non-GAAP) for Q1 2025 were $5,936 million, compared to $5,268 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a 12.6% increase[102] Debt and Financing - Net cash used in financing activities was $13.6 billion in Q1 2025, including $4.8 billion for stock buybacks[96] - Total debt at the end of Q1 2025 was $37.6 billion, down from $41.7 billion at year-end 2024[96] Tax and Shareholder Returns - The effective income tax rate decreased to 34% in Q1 2025 from 36% in the prior year, primarily due to a change in the mix of results[99] - The Corporation distributed a total of $4.3 billion to shareholders in Q1 2025 through dividends[96] Future Plans and Sustainability - The corporation plans to invest between $27 billion and $29 billion in 2025, with actual spending subject to project progress and property acquisitions[102] - The company aims to achieve Scope 1 and Scope 2 net zero emissions from operated assets by 2050, with interim targets for the Permian Basin by 2030 and 2035[103] - Future plans include investments in carbon capture, lower-emission fuels, hydrogen, and ammonia, contingent on technological progress and market factors[103] - The company acknowledges that current trends are not on track to achieve net-zero by 2050 without significant policy and technology advancements[105] - The medium-term business plans incorporate actions needed to advance greenhouse gas emission-reduction goals, updated annually[105] - Capital investment guidance in lower-emission technologies is based on corporate plans, with actual levels dependent on opportunity availability and public policy support[105] Market Conditions - The global trade environment remains volatile, with ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and trade-related actions impacting the corporation[49] - The corporation's refining margins improved in North America due to turnarounds and industry outages, despite global industry refining margins declining[60] - Market risks for Q1 2025 remain consistent with those discussed in the 2024 Annual Report, indicating stable market conditions[107] - The company emphasizes that forward-looking statements regarding sustainability efforts are not necessarily material to investors[104]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production, negatively impacting oil producers like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, while benefiting oil transport companies like Frontline due to increased demand for shipping services as oil prices fall [1][3][6]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Producers - ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips stocks are down 2.5% and 3.6% respectively following OPEC+'s announcement [2]. - Brent crude prices have decreased by 28% over the past year, contributing to the negative sentiment around oil producers [2]. - The increase in oil supply by OPEC+ is expected to lead to further price declines, which will negatively affect profits for ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips [4][3]. Group 2: Impact on Oil Transport Companies - Frontline's stock is up 3.9% as the demand for oil transport services is expected to rise due to falling oil prices [2][6]. - The company benefits from increased shipping needs as consumers seek to purchase cheaper oil, leading to higher demand for Frontline's services [7]. - Frontline is considered a cheaper investment option with a trailing earnings ratio of 7.7 and a generous dividend yield of 4.7% [8]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - Despite the current sell-off, long-term investors may consider buying Exxon and ConocoPhillips stocks due to their respectable dividend yields of 3.7% and 3.4% respectively [9]. - Both companies are reasonably priced with trailing profit ratios of 14.1 for Exxon and 11.7 for Conoco, suggesting potential for future growth as demand rebounds [10].

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil demonstrates resilience in uncertain markets with better-than-expected profitability and a sustainable capital return outlook, despite competitors like Chevron and BP cutting their share repurchase plans by over 40% [1] Financial Performance - ExxonMobil affirmed a capital return outlook of $20 billion for 2025, following a $9.1 billion return in Q1, which includes dividends and share repurchases [2] - The company has a dividend yield of 3.73%, with an annual dividend of $3.96 and a 42-year track record of dividend increases [2] - In Q1, ExxonMobil's revenue was flat year-over-year and slightly below analyst consensus, impacted by a 10% decline in WTI oil prices, although production increased by 20% [8] Share Repurchase and Capital Return - ExxonMobil spent more on share buybacks than on dividends, but the share count increased year-over-year due to the Pioneer acquisition [3] - The capital return in Q1 exceeded free cash flow, which negatively impacted the balance sheet [3] Balance Sheet Health - Despite a low single-digit decline in cash and total assets, debt and liabilities also decreased, leaving equity flat, indicating a healthy balance sheet [4] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a range-bound trading outlook for ExxonMobil, with a Moderate Buy rating, but price targets have been reduced, indicating potential pressure on stock prices [5][6] - The upstream segment showed strong performance with over 19% earnings growth attributed to increased production and the Pioneer acquisition [9]

Core Insights - ExxonMobil's first fiscal quarter earnings exceeded expectations despite downward pressure on petroleum prices throughout the quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The energy company reported solid gains in its earnings [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a 16% drop in international oil prices in April and potential further production increases by OPEC+, major Western oil producers are maintaining their production growth plans [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions - ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) reaffirmed their plans to increase production by approximately 7% and 9% respectively this year, driven by the expansion of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan [2]. - Shell (SHEL.US) and Total (TTE.US) also maintained their capital expenditure plans, while only BP (BP.US) reduced spending under pressure from activist investors [1]. - EOG Resources (EOG.US) has cut its annual budget by $200 million and lowered its production growth forecast from 3% to 2% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - OPEC+ is reportedly discussing an increase in production by about 400,000 barrels per day in June, which contrasts with the production growth plans of major Western oil companies [1]. - The U.S. shale oil industry is facing challenges, as companies typically require oil prices above $60 per barrel to break even, with WTI crude oil closing at $58.29 per barrel [1]. - Independent operators in the U.S. shale oil sector plan to reduce drilling rigs by 4% by the end of the year, but this reduction may have limited impact on global supply [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts express concerns about the global economic slowdown affecting oil and gas demand, indicating a lack of catalysts to accelerate demand in the near to mid-term [4][5]. - The current market conditions suggest a moderate commodity price environment, with significant oil supply expected amidst economic uncertainty [4].

Exxon Mobil (XOM) reported $83.13 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 0.1%. EPS of $1.76 for the same period compares to $2.06 a year ago.The reported revenue represents a surprise of -1.22% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $84.15 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $1.74, the EPS surprise was +1.15%.While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine t ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings of $7.7 billion, up 4% sequentially, excluding identified items [10] - Generated $13 billion of cash flow from operations, leading all integrated oil companies (IOCs) [10] - Achieved $12.7 billion in structural cost savings since 2019, averaging nearly $2.5 billion per year [6][10][102] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sold $1.8 billion of assets in the quarter, primarily in the Upstream sector [10] - Since 2019, the company has sold $24 billion of non-core assets, enhancing earnings power by $4 billion at current prices and margins [11] - Plans to lower breakevens to $35 per barrel by 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The current market environment is characterized by significant volatility and downward pressure on prices and margins due to economic uncertainties and increased operational expenditures [5][6] - The company is positioned to respond to market challenges and capitalize on opportunities, with a focus on reliable and affordable energy [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to invest in advantaged projects to meet energy demands profitably, with a long-term view of generating $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash by 2030 [9][11] - The strategy includes maintaining a strong balance sheet and focusing on profitable growth while rewarding shareholders [15][21] - The company is committed to sustainable investments, particularly in low-carbon solutions, with expectations of generating $1 billion in earnings from these initiatives by 2030 [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the ongoing uncertainty in tariffs and its impact on economic forecasts, emphasizing the importance of focusing on controllable factors [5][6] - The long-term fundamentals of the energy market remain robust, with a continued need for reliable energy sources [9] - Management is confident in the company's ability to navigate market challenges and enhance shareholder value through strategic investments [19][20] Other Important Information - The company distributed $9.1 billion in cash, including $4.8 billion in share buybacks, achieving a three-year total shareholder return of 60% [21][22] - The company has ramped up investor engagement, meeting with approximately 75% of institutional investors over the past year [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market conditions and flexibility in investment decisions - Management emphasized that investment decisions are based on maximizing net present value (NPV) and are influenced by market conditions and operational momentum [29][30] Question: Impact of market developments on the chemicals business - Management noted that while the chemicals industry faces challenges due to supply and demand imbalances, the company remains focused on high-value products and cost efficiency [38][40] Question: Share buybacks and maintaining balance sheet strength - Management confirmed the commitment to continue share buybacks, viewing current stock prices as buying opportunities while ensuring investments in advantaged projects [50][51] Question: M&A strategy in a low-price environment - Management stated that acquisitions are evaluated based on the potential to create value beyond what each entity could achieve independently, with a focus on leveraging existing strengths [58][59] Question: Update on Baytown project and investment decisions - Management highlighted the need for solid policy support and customer commitments before moving forward with the Baytown Blue Hydrogen project [66][68] Question: Synergies from the Pioneer acquisition - Management reported exceeding synergy expectations from the Pioneer acquisition, with optimism about future value creation [73][75] Question: CapEx plans and policy dependencies - Management indicated that while some CapEx plans are policy-dependent, the overall capital spending remains on track, with no significant delays anticipated [81][84] Question: Tariffs and project organization - Management reassured that existing projects are shielded from tariff impacts, with a proactive approach to managing new project costs [116][117]