奇瑞汽车：技术立本、出海领 航，开启智能电动新序章 国联民生证券汽车研究团队 2025年03月31日 证券研究报告 报告评级：强于大市|维持 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 | | 第一部分 | 公司：从自主创新到全球领航，奇瑞汽车的崛 起之路 | | --- | --- | --- | | 目 | 第二部分 | 行业：电动化、智能化与全球化的三重变革 | | 录 | 第三部分 | 业务：技术自研+多品牌+全球化战略助力奇瑞 汽车智能电动突围 | | | 第四部分 | 产业链：合作共赢，奇瑞产汽车业链协同发展 | | | 第五部分 | 投资建议：关注奇瑞汽车产业链核心优质公司 | | | 第六部分 | 风险提示 | 1、公司：从自主创新到全球领航，奇瑞汽车的崛起 之路 发展历程：从"逆向研发"到"正向创新"的蜕变 | 初期创业与自主研发阶段 | | --- | | 国际化拓展与品牌建设阶段 | | --- | • 2019年11月，第三代ACTECO 1.6TGDI发动机 荣获"中国心"2019年度十佳发动机称号 新能源与智能化转型阶段 全面发展与高质量增长阶段 资料来源：奇瑞汽车官网，奇瑞控股集团官网，盖世汽 ...

2024 年报点评： 短期费用拖累，Q1 弹性可期 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月31日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|海尔智家（600690） 2024Q4 海尔智家营收 830.10 亿元，同比+9.88%，实现归属净利润 35.87 亿元，同比+3.96%； 2024A 实现营收 2859.81 亿元，同比+4.29%，实现归属净利润 187.41 亿元，同比+12.92%。内 销在政策刺激和中国区主动调整下迎来拐点，弹性突出，海外表现稳健。2025 年以来，公司 内销强劲，结构改善+一次性影响逐步消退，我们预计公司收入业绩均有望提速。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590523110003 SAC：S0590523110005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 6 管泉森 孙珊 贺本东 蔡奕娴 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年03月31日 海尔智家(600690) 2024 年报点评： 短期费用拖累，Q1 弹性可期 | 行 业： | 家用电器/白色家电 | ...

运价波动导致业绩承压，公司灵活经营 有望稳定业绩 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月28日 2024 年，公司实现营业收入 64.75 亿元，同比+4.5%；实现归母净利润 19.21 亿元，同比+23.4%； 实现扣非归母净利润 16.69 亿元，同比+8.6%。其中 2024Q4，公司实现营业收入 14.67 亿元， 同比-5.3%，实现归母净利润 2.65 亿元，同比-25.0%；实现扣非归母净利润 2.81 亿元，同比 -19.5%。鉴于公司作为远东地区成品油运输市场的领先者，船队经营灵活，具备较强的抵御风 险和穿越周期的能力，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|招商南油（601975） 证券研究报告 |报告要点 李蔚 李天琛 SAC：S0590522120002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年03月28日 招商南油(601975) 运价波动导致业绩承压，公司灵活经营有望 稳定业绩 | 行 业： | 交通运输/航运港口 | | --- | --- | | ...

证券研究报告 金融公司|公司点评|新华保险（601336） 新华保险 2024 年报点评：净利润及 DPS 均同比高增，分红比例维持稳定 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月28日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 新华保险发布 2024 年年报，2024 年底公司将投资回报率假设由 4.5%下调至 4.0%，风险贴现 率假设由 9.0%下调至 8.5%。基于 2024 年底假设，2024 年公司实现 NBV 62.53 亿元；公司实 现归母净利润 262.29 亿元，同比+201.1%。鉴于公司资产端弹性更大，我们维持"买入"评 级。 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 刘雨辰 朱丽芳 SAC：S0590522100001 SAC：S0590524080001 金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年03月28日 新华保险(601336) 新华保险 2024 年报点评：净利润及 DPS 均同 比高增，分红比例维持稳定 | 行 业： | 非银金融/保险Ⅱ | | --- | --- | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|中国外运（601598） Q4 盈利同环比改善，股东回报稳中有 进 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月28日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2025 年 3 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年公司实现营业收入 1056.2 亿元，同 比+3.8%；实现归母净利润 39.2 亿元，同比-7.1%。其中，2024Q4 公司营业收入 197.5 亿元， 同比-31.8%；归母净利润 10.9 亿元，同比+3.0%，环比+24.1%。我们看好公司经营继续保持韧 性，盈利稳步改善，持续且稳定回报股东，维持"买入"评级。 股价相对走势 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 李蔚 李天琛 SAC：S0590522120002 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年03月28日 中国外运(601598) Q4 盈利同环比改善，股东回报稳中有进 | 行 业： | 交通运输/物流 | | --- | --- | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 5.28 元 | 基本 ...

证券研究报告 |报告要点 中国人寿发布 2024 年年报，2024 年底公司将投资回报率假设由 4.5%下调至 4.0%，普通型业 务的风险贴现率假设保持不变为 8.0%、浮动收益型业务的风险贴现率假设由 8.0%下调至 7.2%。基于 2024 年底假设，2024 年公司实现 NBV 337.09 亿元；公司实现归母净利润 1069.35 亿元，相同口径下同比+131.6%。 |分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 金融公司|公司点评|中国人寿（601628） 中国人寿 2024 年报点评：净利润同比 高增，DPS 显著增长 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月28日 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 刘雨辰 朱丽芳 SAC：S0590522100001 SAC：S0590524080001 金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年03月28日 中国人寿(601628) 中国人寿 2024 年报点评：净利润同比高增， DPS 显著增长 | 行 业： | 非银金融/保险Ⅱ | | --- | --- | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - In 2024, BYD achieved sales of 4.272 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, with total revenue reaching 777.1 billion yuan, up 29.0% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 40.25 billion yuan, a 34.0% increase year-on-year [3][11] - The significant revenue growth in Q4 2024 was primarily driven by the government's vehicle replacement subsidy policy, leading to a sales volume of 1.524 million vehicles, which is a 61.3% increase year-on-year and a 34.3% increase quarter-on-quarter [3][11] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 19.4%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to ongoing scale effects [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - BYD's total revenue for 2024 was 777.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29.0% [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 40.25 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.0% [11] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 274.85 billion yuan, a 52.7% increase year-on-year and a 36.7% increase quarter-on-quarter [3][11] R&D and Technological Advancements - R&D expenses in Q4 2024 reached a record high of 19.87 billion yuan, marking a 35.8% year-on-year increase and a 45.1% quarter-on-quarter increase [12] - The launch of the Super e-platform 3.0 signifies a new era in electrification, with the 1000V architecture enabling rapid charging capabilities [13] Future Projections - Revenue projections for BYD from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1,006.35 billion yuan, 1,212.65 billion yuan, and 1,455.18 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 29.5%, 20.5%, and 20.0% [14] - Net profit projections for the same period are 56.37 billion yuan, 69.27 billion yuan, and 83.70 billion yuan, with growth rates of 40.0%, 22.9%, and 20.8% [14]

Economic Growth and Fiscal Strength - Hangzhou's GDP ranking has improved by 2 places since 2015, reaching over 2 trillion CNY in 2024, making it the 7th largest city in China[31] - Fiscal revenue ranking has increased by 4 places, now standing 4th in 2023, just behind Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen[31] - The resident population in Hangzhou has grown to approximately 12.5 million, maintaining a high growth rate among major cities[38] Industrial Transformation - Hangzhou's industrial development has transitioned from a silk production hub to a digital economy leader, characterized by a "5+3" modern industrial system[48] - Key industries include software and information technology services, high-end equipment manufacturing, and emerging sectors like artificial intelligence and cloud computing[48] Digital Economy and Private Sector Vitality - The digital economy in Hangzhou is nationally leading, significantly driving innovation in both service and manufacturing sectors[18] - The city boasts a favorable business environment, consistently ranked first in the country, enhancing its attractiveness for talent and investment[18] Investment and Consumption Trends - Consumption is expected to contribute significantly to future economic growth, reflecting a shift from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth[18] - R&D investment has surged, particularly from companies like Alibaba, positioning Hangzhou's tech industry for substantial growth[18] Talent Attraction and Retention - Hangzhou's lower housing costs compared to first-tier cities have made it an attractive destination for talent, with a high retention rate of graduates from local universities[39] - The city has seen a notable influx of talent, with a significant percentage of graduates from Zhejiang University remaining in the province[39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 39.24 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 2.7%. Excluding specific commercial production projects, revenue grew by 5.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.45 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 9.99 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year. Revenue and profit showed steady quarterly growth throughout 2024, achieving annual guidance, with both revenue and profit reaching historical highs in the fourth quarter [5][13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 39.24 billion yuan, down 2.7% year-on-year, but grew by 5.2% when excluding specific projects. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.6%, while the net profit after non-recurring items was 9.99 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%. The company’s revenue and profit increased steadily each quarter, with the fourth quarter setting historical records for both metrics [5][13] Business Development - The company’s integrated CRDMO service platform is showing collaborative effects, continuously empowering clients. In 2024, the chemical business generated revenue of 29.05 billion yuan, down 0.4%, but grew by 11.2% when excluding specific projects. The company signed a share sale agreement related to medical device testing business in the U.S. at the end of 2024, with the testing business generating revenue of 5.67 billion yuan, down 4.8% [14] Customer Growth and Orders - As of the end of 2024, the company had approximately 6,000 active clients, adding about 1,000 new clients in the year. The backlog of orders reached 49.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.0%. To meet the rapidly growing downstream demand, the company is expanding its production capacity, including the operation of the Taixing API production base and steady capacity increases in Changzhou and Taixing [15] Future Projections - The company expects revenues of 42.64 billion yuan, 47.67 billion yuan, and 55.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 8.67%, 11.78%, and 15.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 10.99 billion yuan, 12.87 billion yuan, and 15.07 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 16.26%, 17.16%, and 17.10% [16][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 126.61 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.8%. The net value of new business (NBV) reached 28.53 billion yuan, up 25.6% year-on-year. The company has adjusted its actuarial assumptions, lowering the investment return rate from 4.5% to 4.0% and the risk discount rate from 9.5% to 8.5%/7.5% [4][13][14] - The company continues to emphasize shareholder returns, proposing a dividend of 2.55 yuan per share for 2024, which is a 5% increase year-on-year [15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1266.07 billion yuan, with a breakdown of profits from various segments: life and health insurance (930 billion yuan, +28%), property insurance (150 billion yuan, +68%), banking (258 billion yuan, -4%), asset management (-119 billion yuan, loss narrowed), and financial empowerment (129 billion yuan, +528%) [14] - The operating profit for 2024 was 1218.62 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.1% increase year-on-year [14] New Business Value (NBV) - The NBV for 2024 was 285.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.6%. The first-year premium used for calculating NBV was 1540.26 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [15] - The NBV margin improved to 22.7%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [15] Actuarial Assumptions and EV Growth - The company's actuarial assumptions adjustments led to a decrease in the expected value (EV) growth, with the EV for life and health insurance at 8350.93 billion yuan by the end of 2024, down 13.1% due to these adjustments [15] - The company’s EV based on 2023 assumptions was 9606.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.6% increase from the beginning of the year [15] Dividend Policy - The proposed dividend of 2.55 yuan per share for 2024 indicates a commitment to shareholder returns, with a payout ratio of 37.9% of the operating profit [15] Future Projections - The company forecasts insurance business revenues of 575.68 billion yuan, 600.48 billion yuan, and 628.27 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.6% [17] - Projected net profits for the same years are 141.39 billion yuan, 164.21 billion yuan, and 193.67 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.7%, 16.1%, and 17.9% respectively [17]