海外利率周报 20251216 担忧明年降息不及预期，美债利率下行受阻 glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 16 日 宏观经济指标点评 就业：美国 2025 年 10 月 JOLTS 就业职位空缺数量为 767 万个，略高于 9 月份的 765.8 万个。同时，雇主招聘数量为 514.9 万个，低于 9 月份的 536.7 万个和去年 10 月的 535 万个。本周美国初请失业金人数为 23.6 万人，高于市场预期的 22 万人，较 前值 19.2 万人大幅回升。据 JOLTS 报告，上周初请失业金人数的反弹终结了此前连 续数周的下降趋势。 主要海外市场利率回顾 美国：担忧明年降息不及预期，美债利率下行受阻。本周（2025 年 12 月 5 日-2025 年 12 月 12 日，下同）美债收益率变动：1 个月期（-6bp，3.76%）、1 年期（-7bp， 3.54%）、2 年期（-4bp，3.52%）、5 年期（+3bp，3.75%）、10 年期（+5bp，4.19%）、 30 年期（+6bp，4.85%）。鉴于 2025 年降息预期已经实现，市场对于 2026 年上半 年的降息展望维持在 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 孔蓉 | 执业证书： S0590525110014 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | kongrong@glms.com.cn | 分析师 | 樊程安吉 | | 执业证书： S0590525110016 | 邮箱： | fanchenganji@glms.com.cn | | | 分析师 | 赵融 | 执业证书： S0590525120005 | | | 邮箱： | zhaorong@glms.com.cn | | | 相关研究 Oracle（ORCL）2026 财年第二季度业绩点评 RPO 维持高增长，关注后续收入转化情况 glmszqdatemark 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 品交付 ➢ Oracle 发布 FY26Q2 业绩。FY26Q2 总收入 161 亿美元，同比+13%，不及彭 博一致预期；经调整毛利率 67.8%，同比-4.7pcts，不及彭博一致预期；经调整 净利润 66 亿美元，同比+54%，超彭博一致预期，其中受到公司 ...

国债期货方面 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2025 年 12 月 15 日 债市观点及组合策略推荐 债券择券思路及个券关注 债券策略周报 20251215 当前债市策略的三个问题 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] 分析师 徐亮 执业证书： S0590525110037 邮箱： xliang@glms.com.cn 针对当前债券市场，建议投资者可以关注三个问题： 1.为什么投资者在 30 年利率修复后的离场情绪浓厚？以 30 年活跃券 25T6 来衡 量本轮行情，其从 11 月中旬 2.13%左右上行 15BP 至 2.28%左右，其修复行情 从高点回落超过 8BP。如果投资者认为债市可以反转变好，那么继续关注利率下 行机会是合适的；但如果认为是反弹行情，在利率修复上行幅度的一半后，其继 续修复的空间和可能性则较小，此时应该及时降低关注。而当前可能使得债市反 转向好的因素需要关注两点，即央行是否在短期有降息可能性、银行保险等配置 力量有没有明显增加迹象。预计这两点在明年一季度中后期可能较为明显。 2.在 30-10Y 利差明显走扩后，1 ...

电力设备及新能源周报 20251214 全球动力装机持续高增，光伏组件价格现企稳信号 glmszqdatemark 本周（20251208-20251212）板块行情 电力设备与新能源板块：本周上涨 1.19%，涨跌幅排名第 5，强于上证指数。本周核 电指数涨幅最大，太阳能指数跌幅最大。核电指数上涨 1.34%，工控自动化上涨 1.25%， 锂电池指数上涨 0.43%，新能源汽车指数上涨 0.22%，风力发电指数上涨 0.11%，储 能指数上涨 0.05%，太阳能指数下跌 0.59%。 新能源车：2025 年 1-10 月全球动力电池总装车量同比增长 34.7% 根据 SNE Research 最新数据，2025 年 1-10 月全球动力电池装车量达 933.5GWh， 同比增长 34.7%。从装机量来看，宁德时代以 355.2GWh 持续领先，比亚迪以 157.9GWh 保持第二，LG 新能源以 86.5GWh 位列第三。其中蜂巢能源表现亮眼，装 机量达 23.7GWh，同比增长 86.6%；亿纬锂能和国轩高科分别实现 73.3%和 80.8% 的高速增长；中创新航 10 月装机量首次超越 LG 新能源，跃 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, Ctrip, Bilibili, Xiaomi, NetEase, and Meituan, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in the upcoming year [26]. Core Insights - The report highlights the expectation of improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market, suggesting it may be an opportune time to invest in technology-related sectors [5]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of AI application commercialization, with significant developments from major companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and others [5][25]. - The report notes that southbound capital has shown a net inflow of 12,878 billion yuan year-to-date, which is 173.09% of the total net inflow for 2024, indicating strong investor interest [5]. Summary by Sections Company Financials and News - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize economic growth [7]. - Alibaba has restructured its business into the Qianwen C-end division, which has quickly gained over 30 million monthly active users [7]. - Tencent has launched new AI features in its QQ platform, enhancing user engagement [7]. Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index and related indices experienced slight declines, with the Hang Seng Technology Index down 0.43% [5]. - Notable net purchases from southbound funds included Xiaomi, Meituan, and Beike, indicating strong market interest in these stocks [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on platform-based internet companies with synergistic advantages in computing power, model capabilities, and application scenarios, including Tencent, Ctrip, Kuaishou, Alibaba, Bilibili, Xiaomi, Baidu, and Meituan [25]. - It also highlights AI ecosystem companies with model or application capabilities, such as JD Health, Huixuan Technology, KEEP, Fenbi, Zhihu, Fourth Paradigm, and Tuya Smart [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for deep reforms to address "involution" competition in the steel industry, with the central government advocating for a unified national market and stricter export management [2]. - The introduction of export licenses for certain steel products is expected to limit the export of low-value-added products, encouraging steel companies to upgrade to higher-end products [2]. - In the short term, low-value-added products may face adjustments, while the long-term trend will see an increase in the export proportion of high-end products, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of December 12, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,250 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week [7][16]. - The report notes a decline in production and inventory levels, with total steel production at 8.06 million tons, a decrease of 227,300 tons week-on-week [7][16]. International Steel Market - The report highlights stable price increases in the U.S. and European steel markets, with U.S. hot-rolled coil prices at 985 USD/ton, up 10 USD from the previous week [28][30]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices have shown a mixed trend, with some prices remaining stable while others have decreased slightly [33]. - The report indicates a decline in scrap steel prices, with the current price at 2,080 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY from the previous week [33]. Company Valuations and Stock Performance - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with Hualing Steel projected to have an EPS of 0.29 CNY in 2024 and a PE ratio of 18 [3].

计算机行业周报 20251214 谁是中国的 MongoDB glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 14 日 市场回顾 本周（12.08-12.12）沪深 300 指数下跌 0.71%，中小板指数下跌 0.13%，创业板指 数上涨 1.75%，计算机（中信）板块下跌 1.44%。板块个股涨幅前五名分别为：开普 云、淳中科技、荣科科技、达华智能、赢时胜；跌幅前五名分别为：佳华科技、恒银 科技、中科曙光、思创医惠、天源迪科。 行业要闻 工信部：14 个行业数字化转型"场景导航图"发布； 谷歌：首款 AI 眼镜将于明年上市。 公司动态 神州信息：12 月 10 日消息，持有神州数码信息服务集团股份有限公股份 389,540,110 股（占公司总股本的 39.9211%）的控股股东神州数码软件有限公司，计划在本公告 披露之日起 15 个交易日后的 3 个月内（即 2025 年 12 月 31 日至 2026 年 3 月 30 日），以集中竞价交易或大宗交易相结合的方式减持其持有的公司不超过 28,827,300 股股份，占公司总股本的 2.9543%，占剔除回购专用证券账户中的股份数量后的公司 总股本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the metal prices are expected to continue rising due to the resonance of domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on the upcoming economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand in the lithium battery sector and the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt, indicating a bullish outlook for energy metals [8][83]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34% and a 1.10% drop in the SW Nonferrous Index during the week [8]. - Key stocks in the nonferrous metal sector showed varied performance, with significant recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][11]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.88% to $2875 per ton, while copper prices fell by 0.96% to $11552.5 per ton, with zinc prices increasing by 1.31% to $3139 per ton [12][21]. - The report indicates that the domestic aluminum production capacity is stable at 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase in operational capacity due to high profits [21][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.42% to $4329.80 per ounce, and silver prices rose by 5.59% to $62.09 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [12][68]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [68][69]. Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing stable growth in supply, while demand from the energy storage sector continues to rise, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices [8][83]. - Cobalt supply remains tight, with the Congo's cobalt export quotas expected to impact the market dynamics positively [8][83]. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in prices for minor metals, including molybdenum and tungsten, with significant price increases noted for tungsten [15][83]. - The overall sentiment in the minor metals market remains cautious, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [55][85].

转债周策略 20251213 股性转债溢价率博弈策略的构建思路 glmszqdatemark 股性转债溢价率博弈策略的构建思路 股性转债价格涨跌主要由正股涨跌驱动，但部分股性转债转股溢价率的明显上升也为 投资者贡献额外的超额收益。下文我们从股性转债溢价率博弈的角度出发，筛选了今 年股性转债溢价率明显上升的标的，拆解归纳不同影响溢价率上升的动因，为投资者 后续择券提供参考。 我们认为构建股性转债溢价率博弈策略应主要着重于筛选哪些转债溢价率"易上难 下"，其中溢价率"难下"的主要择券标准可以设定为哪些转债溢价率低于 2%：由于 转债转股套利的存在，转债溢价率一般难以低于 0%，并且部分转债计入正股未来上 涨的预期，因此若只筛选溢价率在 0%附近的转债样本量过小。 我们筛选了今年以来，股性转债溢价率低于 2%，后面溢价率回升至 10%（回升至 10% 以上时，转债为股性转债，转换价值在 130 元以上）以上的转债标的作为样本，复盘 归纳哪些因素可能使得股性转债溢价率回升： 总体来看，我们认为构建股性转债溢价率博弈策略主要应该先初筛溢价率已经处于较 低水平的股性转债；然后判断转债的强赎概率和基本面，若后续转债披露"不 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the small nucleic acid sector, anticipating significant catalysts by 2026 [5]. Core Views - The report emphasizes three main investment themes for 2026: innovation, international expansion, and turnaround opportunities. It suggests focusing on innovative drugs, biotech companies that have gone global, and supply chain strategies [2][21]. - The small nucleic acid therapy market is expected to experience substantial growth, with FDA-approved drugs like Inclisiran and Vutrisiran projected to reach sales of $754 million and $971 million respectively by 2024 [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Small Nucleic Acid Market Outlook - The report highlights the commercial growth potential of small nucleic acid therapies, with significant sales forecasts for drugs like Inclisiran and Vutrisiran, and a projected market size of $30 billion for Novartis's xRNA therapies [3][16]. - The business development (BD) trend for siRNA therapies is improving, with notable deals such as a $4.165 billion agreement with Novartis [3][20]. - Clinical catalysts are expected, with Arrowhead's ARO-DIMER-PA set to announce trial results in H2 2026 [4][20]. - Increased capital recognition is noted, with companies like Rebio Biotech preparing for IPOs, indicating a positive market sentiment [4][20]. 2. Market Review and Trends - The report reviews the recent performance of the pharmaceutical sector, noting a 1.04% decline in the A-share pharmaceutical index, underperforming compared to the ChiNext and CSI 300 indices [24][28]. - The overall trading volume in the pharmaceutical sector was 423.35 billion yuan, accounting for 4.38% of the total market, below the historical average of 7.13% [43][24]. - The report identifies the best-performing sub-sector as medical services II, while the worst was pharmaceutical commerce II [35][38]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality siRNA companies in China, such as Frontier Biotech, Yuyuan Pharmaceutical, and others, as they are positioned for rapid development in the small nucleic acid space [7][21]. - It suggests monitoring the clinical progress of various siRNA drugs in development, particularly those targeting metabolic diseases [22][21].