| 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 22,427 | 22,772 | 23,722 | 24,717 | | 增长率（%） | 5.3 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 2,244 | 2,097 | 2,197 | 2,281 | | 增长率（%） | 3.0 | -6.6 | 4.8 | 3.8 | | 每股收益（元） | 2.80 | 2.62 | 2.74 | 2.85 | | PE | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 | | PB | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 24 日收盘价） 2026 年 02 月 25 日 苏泊尔(002032.SZ)2025 年业绩快报点评 全年营收稳健收官，费用投放拖累业绩 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | ...

苏泊尔(002032.SZ)2025 年业绩快报点评 全年营收稳健收官，费用投放拖累业绩 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] [Table_Author] 分析师 管泉森 执业证书： S0590523100007 邮箱： guanqs@glms.com.cn | 分析师 | 孙珊 | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书： S0590523110003 | | 邮箱： | sunshan@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 周振 | | | 执业证书： S0590526010001 | | 邮箱： | zhouzhen@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -20% -3% 13% 30% 苏泊尔 沪深300 相关研究 1． 苏泊尔 2025 年三季报点评：收入展现韧 性，业绩波动无需过忧-2025/10/24 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（ ...

Group 1 - The central viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions, as stated in the central bank's monetary policy report for Q4 2025 [9][10] - The report indicates that the anticipated early quota for local government bonds in 2026 is projected to be 3.12 trillion yuan, based on 60% of the new local bond quota for 2025, which is 5.20 trillion yuan [16][44] - The report highlights that the total issuance of local government bonds is expected to reach 20.216 trillion yuan by February 28, 2026, with a significant portion being long-term bonds [17][45] Group 2 - The report notes that the net financing scale of local government bonds in March is expected to decrease to around 500 billion yuan unless the new bond quota announced during the two sessions exceeds market expectations [18][45] - It is mentioned that the implied tax rates for various bond maturities are around 4% for 10Y, 4% for 15Y, 5% for 20Y, and 4.5% for 30Y, indicating a favorable value proposition for these bonds [19][47] - The report discusses the behavior of institutions, noting that various entities, excluding insurance, have shifted to net buying of local bonds before the Spring Festival, with a focus on longer maturities [18][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the electronic industry [4][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing competition in AI model development, with significant advancements from both international and domestic companies, particularly in computational power [6]. - It emphasizes the importance of computational power as a key investment theme, focusing on overseas computational power, domestic computational power, and storage as three main lines of investment [6][9]. - The report notes that domestic AI models are reaching a dual inflection point in technology and commercialization, with a shift from parameter competition to efficiency and agent-based innovations [6]. Summary by Sections Overseas Computational Power - Google launched its Gemini 3.1 Pro model, achieving a significant increase in reasoning and coding capabilities, with test scores surpassing previous models [6]. - Companies like Lumentum and Coherent saw stock increases of 19.90% and 14.57% respectively, driven by better-than-expected orders [6]. - Nvidia's stock rose by 4.78% as it prepares to unveil a revolutionary AI chip at the upcoming GTC 2026 conference [6]. Domestic Computational Power - Domestic AI model companies performed well during the holiday period, with notable stock increases for companies like Zhizhu and MiniMax [6]. - The report mentions the successful launch of several new AI models by domestic companies, indicating a shift towards efficiency and commercialization [6]. - Key domestic chips have been adapted for new models, with significant support from various domestic computational platforms [6]. Storage Chips - The report notes stock increases for companies like SanDisk and Micron, driven by growing AI demand [6]. - Micron is investing $50 billion to expand its production capacity in response to increasing AI infrastructure needs [6]. - The report highlights the significant price increase for HBM4 chips, reflecting the inflationary effects of AI demand [6].

信用债周策略 20260224 信用债春节后的季节效应 glmszqdatemark 2016 年-2026 年信用债在春节前后的行情复盘：复盘过去 10 年（2016 年-2025 年）的市场数据，春节前后的信用债节后走势通常优于节前。具体来看，春节前 信用债市场可能收到资金面和临近假期交易情绪清淡的扰动。而在春节假期结束 后，随着节前取出的现金回流至银行体系，市场流动性通常会迎来阶段性的宽松。 近十年春节后季节效应的结论：复盘近 10 年历年春节后的行情，信用债市场的 胜率较高。近 10 年，不同品种春节后有 60%-70%的收益率下行概率。具体分品 种角度，若在春节前布局，二级资本债（71.43%）和 10Y 利率债（70.00%）是 收益率下行概率最高的品种。分期限和品种看，其中，3Y 信用债（70.48%）、 3YAAA 城投债（70.00%）和中短期票据（70.00%）表现最为突出。从收益率角 度看，信用债的收益率变化弹性更大。城投债的下行幅度平均是国债的 2.4 倍， 从 T+10 日的表现来看，"春节后做多"或是高胜率策略，且 3Y AAA 城投债 的收益弹性远高于 10Y 国债。 信用债春节 ...

转债个券研究系列 华辰转债 江苏华辰：变压器出海赛道的成长力量 glmszqdatemark | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 林浩睿 | | 执业证书： S0590525110039 | | | 邮箱： | linhaorui@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 中国变压器行业在过去十年经历了由稳步增长转向加速腾飞的强势发展历程，其 增长轨迹与全球能源转型和电网投资浪潮高度共振。在 2016-2020 年间出口额从 28.44 亿美元增长到 32.64 亿美元，在此期间，2018 年受全球工业复苏影响取得 9.5% 的较快增长，但 2020 年受公共卫生事件影响出现 2.1%的微幅下滑，整体表现平稳。 从 2021 年开始出口额进入了快速增长的阶段，从 36.72 亿美元上升 至 2025 年的 90.36 亿美元，五年间规模扩张近 2.5 倍，增长势头逐年增强，特 别是 2024-2025 年，在 26.6%的高基数上进一步跃升至 34.9%的惊人增速，显示 ...

区域宏观经济观察及信用债分析系列专题之二 地方经济发展有什么抓手 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 梁克淳 | | 执业证书： S0590525110038 | | | 邮箱： | liangkechun@glms.com.cn | 2026 年 02 月 24 日 国家部委为今年地方经济发展提供"充足弹药"：央行、财政部、发改委持续在政 策端发力、在资金端提供协同支持，目标就是为了更好激励地方政府积极落实与 "投资于物、投资于人"相关的项目建设，并秉持"因地制宜"原则而做好有效 投资；鼓励有较好就业基础、技术实力、出口优势的各类企业持续经营、扩大规 模，带动重点产业链及上下游产业发展，形成"产业集群"而保证当地居民连续 就业与区域经济稳健发展。与此同时，发改委正在研究制定"2026-2030 年扩大 内需战略实施方案"与"研究设立国家级并购基金"，或将利于地方政府使用地方 产业基金来布局更多新质生产力， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the education industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The education industry is expected to experience a "three-dimensional resonance" with policy improvements, supply clearing, and demand release, shifting the investment logic from policy-driven to performance-driven. The industry is also seen as having relatively low valuations, with potential for a "Davis Double Play" in performance and valuation under policy support [8][26]. - The integration of AI in education is highlighted as a key investment theme, with leading education companies likely to benefit from the "AI + Education" trend [8][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Policy Dynamics - On February 9, the Guangdong Provincial Education Department issued guidelines to standardize enrollment practices in primary and secondary schools, effective from March 10, 2026, for five years [11]. - The Jiangsu Province introduced an action plan for AI and intellectual property from 2026 to 2030, promoting the integration of AI with intellectual property to foster interdisciplinary talent [11]. - The Ministry of Education emphasized the importance of high-quality Sino-Russian educational cooperation, focusing on vocational education and joint research platforms [11]. - The establishment of the Aerospace Intelligent College at Hainan University aims to align educational offerings with high-end industry needs [11]. - A new opinion from the Ministry of Education calls for reforms in vocational education to address industry disconnects and enhance adaptability [11]. 2. Individual Stock Dynamics - China Oriental Education forecasted a 46%-51% increase in net profit for 2025, driven by a 6% increase in new student registrations and a 12% revenue growth [14]. - Huatu Shanding's major shareholder had a portion of shares released from freeze, while Zhonggong Education's shareholder released a significant number of pledged shares [14]. 3. Market Performance - The education sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the CITIC Education Index rising by 1.16% compared to the CSI 300's 0.36% increase during the week of February 9-13, 2026 [15]. - The best-performing stocks in the education sector included Doushen Education (+6.31%), Qinsong Shares (+5.03%), and Kede Education (+3.36%) [20]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. "AI + Education" with a positive outlook for Kevin Education and Kede Education as potential leaders 2. Performance and valuation resonance with Action Education, Xueda Education, and Angli Education showing significant valuation advantages 3. Second growth curve opportunities with Botong Shares actively seeking new growth avenues [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the education industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The education industry is expected to experience a "three-dimensional resonance" with policy improvements, supply clearing, and demand release, shifting the investment logic from policy-driven to performance-driven. The industry is also seen as having relatively low valuations, with potential for a "Davis Double Play" in performance and valuation under policy support [8][26]. - The integration of AI in education is highlighted as a key investment theme, with leading education companies likely to benefit from the "AI + Education" trend [8][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Policy Dynamics - On February 9, the Guangdong Provincial Education Department issued guidelines to standardize enrollment practices in primary and secondary schools, effective from March 10, 2026, for five years [11]. - The Jiangsu Province introduced an action plan for AI and intellectual property from 2026 to 2030, promoting the integration of AI with education and supporting interdisciplinary talent development [11]. - The Ministry of Education emphasized the importance of high-quality cooperation in vocational education with Russia, focusing on talent cultivation and joint research [11]. - The establishment of the Aerospace Intelligent College at Hainan University aims to align educational offerings with high-end industry needs [11]. - The Ministry of Education released opinions on reforming vocational education, focusing on industry collaboration and the introduction of new majors in emerging fields [11]. 2. Individual Company Dynamics - China Oriental Education announced a positive profit forecast, expecting a 46%-51% increase in net profit for 2025, driven by a 6% increase in new student registrations [14]. - Huatu Shanding's major shareholder had some shares released from freezing, while Zhonggong Education's shareholder completed the release of pledged shares [14]. 3. Market Performance - The education sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the CITIC Education Index increasing by 1.16% compared to the CSI 300's 0.36% during the week of February 9-13, 2026 [15]. - The best-performing stocks in the education sector included Doushen Education (+6.31%), Qinsong Shares (+5.03%), and Kede Education (+3.36%), while the worst performers were ST Kaiyuan (-7.06%), Huatu Shanding (-3.92%), and Angli Education (-2.45%) [20]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: (1) "AI + Education" with a focus on Kevin Education and Kede Education as potential leaders; (2) performance and valuation resonance with Action Education, Xueda Education, and Angli Education showing significant valuation advantages; (3) exploring second growth curves with Botong Shares [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [5] Core Insights - The underlying logic of the current pharmaceutical industry era is innovation and international expansion, with a focus on innovative drugs and technology-driven sectors [2][3] - The report highlights the strong performance of the CRO market and suggests a dual investment strategy focusing on both "0 to 1" technology innovation and low-position stocks [2][3] - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of BD (Business Development) transactions in innovative drugs, with significant growth expected in 2026 [4][15] Summary by Sections 1. Key Events in the Pharmaceutical Industry During the Spring Festival - Innovative drug BD transactions have seen a strong start, with significant overseas development and registration progress for key products [13][14] - The total amount of BD transactions for innovative drugs in China for 2026 has already surpassed one-third of the total for 2025 [15] - The revision of the National Essential Medicines List Management Measures may signal changes in the essential medicines directory [28] 2. Pharmaceutical Market Review and Hotspot Tracking - The pharmaceutical sector's performance was relatively weak, with a weekly decline of 0.81%, ranking 20th among all industries [34][38] - The total trading volume for pharmaceuticals was 401.12 billion yuan, accounting for 3.83% of the total market, below the historical average of 7.09% [55] - The report notes a rising valuation level for the pharmaceutical industry, with a PE ratio of 29.25, which is below the historical average [52] 3. Stock Performance Review - The report lists the top-performing stocks, including Dongyangguang and Zhendemedical, while highlighting the underperformers like Huayuan Biology and *ST Sailong [58][59]