石化周报 美国降息、地缘发酵，油价受供应过剩担忧影响表现疲软 glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 13 日 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | 9.53 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600938.SH | 中国海油 | 28.40 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.68 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600028.SH | 中国石化 | 5.78 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 14 | 19 | 17 | 推荐 | | 603619.SH | 中曼石油 | 22.05 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.99 | 13 | ...

安联锐视（301042.SZ）公司动态报告 发力机器人领域，打造第二成长曲线 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 691 | 484 | 654 | 850 | | 增长率（%） | 0.4 | -29.9 | 35.0 | 30.0 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 71 | 37 | 83 | 126 | | 增长率（%） | -22.9 | -47.8 | 121.9 | 52.4 | | 每股收益（元） | 1.02 | 0.53 | 1.18 | 1.81 | | PE | 81 | 156 | 70 | 46 | | PB | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 12 日收盘价） 2025 年 12 月 13 日 | 推荐 | 首次评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for key players in the market [4]. Core Insights - The overseas market for robotic vacuum cleaners is experiencing significant growth, driven by Chinese brands leading the expansion. Notably, during the recent Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions, sales for Roborock in Europe increased by 59% year-on-year, while sales in North America rose by at least 50%. The brand Chase achieved a remarkable 90% growth in Europe and 270% in North America [8][18]. - The pricing dynamics in the industry show a coexistence of upgrades and competition, with the average price of robotic vacuums expected to rise. For instance, the average prices on Amazon for best-selling models in the US, Germany, France, and Japan increased by 17%, 22%, 9%, and 3% year-on-year, respectively [23][28]. - The competitive landscape indicates that traditional overseas leaders are under pressure, while Chinese brands are poised to benefit from this shift. iRobot is facing liquidity and debt default risks, which may allow Chinese brands to capture market share in Europe and North America [34][36]. Summary by Sections Growth - The overseas robotic vacuum market has seen rapid growth, with a 58% increase in downloads for the top eight brands from January to November 2025. Europe is leading this growth, followed by Asia-Pacific and North America, which still shows over 30% growth despite tariff uncertainties [11][15]. Pricing - The combination of premium products becoming more affordable and consumers opting for upgrades is driving the average price increase in the industry. However, aggressive pricing competition during year-end promotions has led to some price reductions in specific markets [23][28]. Competitive Landscape - iRobot is under significant operational and debt pressure, which may allow Chinese brands to gain market share. The report suggests that iRobot's overseas market share has dropped below 10%, indicating a potential opportunity for Chinese brands to capitalize on this situation [34][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued investment in leading cleaning appliance brands such as Roborock and Ecovacs, which are expected to maintain high growth rates in overseas markets. The domestic market is also anticipated to grow rapidly due to ongoing product innovation and increasing penetration rates [51][52].

2026 年转债投资策略 稳中求变，顺势而为 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 林浩睿 | | 执业证书： S0590525110039 | | | 邮箱： | linhaorui@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 黄涵静 | | 执业证书： S0590125110075 | | | 邮箱： | huanghanjing@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2025 年 12 月 11 日 2026 年转债市场预计维持震荡向上的趋势；权益市场"慢牛"行情下，股性/平 衡转债或持续活跃；供需端均有结构性演化，市场对高估值环境预计逐渐适应。 供需-方兴未艾：2026 年转债供需预计将呈现紧平衡的局面，当部分转债强赎或 者到期后，新券上市将满足对应的配置需求。基于供给端的角度，预计高景气高 预期行业的转债仍将持续上市，并 ...

邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：shaoxiang@glms.com.cn 美联储政策观察 鲍威尔的"鹰"派降息剧本？ glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 10 日 研究助理：武朔 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 分析师：邵翔 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590525120004 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 作为今年美联储的收官会议，12 月议息后的政策走向已成为当前市场核心焦点。 结合纽约联储行长威廉姆斯等官员此前的鸽派信号，以及市场对降息的高度一致 预期，本次会议如期降息 25 个基点的概率较高。而市场核心分歧在于，鲍威尔在 会议上的表态将为后续的政策路径提供何种指引。 我们认为，鲍威尔很可能在会议上释放更多"鹰"派信号，毕竟在连续降息后， 美联储的政策空间也已经愈发有限，且快速降息使得短期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is focusing on electric and intelligent transformation, leveraging partnerships with Huawei for smart technology integration. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 189.6 billion, 209.5 billion, and 233.5 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 6.29 billion, 8.33 billion, and 10.51 billion yuan [8]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 3 million vehicles in 2025, with 1 million of those being electric vehicles. New models such as the Deep Blue L06 and others are expected to contribute to this growth [8]. - The establishment of a robotics company marks the company's entry into the embodied intelligence and robotics sector, with a strategic framework of "1+N+X" to cover various product forms and integrate the automotive supply chain [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 159.73 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.6%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 189.55 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.7% increase [2][18]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline to 6.29 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 14.1%, before recovering to 8.33 billion yuan in 2026 and 10.51 billion yuan in 2027 [2][18]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.06 yuan by 2027 [2][18]. Sales Performance - In November, the company reported wholesale sales of 284,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Cumulative sales from January to November reached 2.658 million vehicles, up 9.3% year-on-year [8]. - The company's self-owned brand sales in November were 244,000 vehicles, reflecting a 5.8% increase year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales rose by 23.3% year-on-year [8].

新势力系列点评二十五 2025 年 11 月重点新能源车企交付量发布，据各公司披露数据： 零跑 70,327 辆，同比+75.1%，环比+0.1%； 小鹏 36,728 辆，同比+18.9%，环比-12.6%； 蔚来 36,275 辆，同比+76.3%，环比-10.2%； 理想 33,181 辆，同比-31.9%，环比+4.5%； 极氪 28,843 辆，同比+6.8%，环比+34.6%； 小米超 40,000 辆。 11 月车市短期承压，新能源渗透率持续提升。乘联会初步推算本月狭义乘用车零 售总市场规模约为 225.0 万辆左右，同比-8.7%，环比持平，其中新能源零售预 计可达 135 万辆，渗透率有望首次升到 60.0%。11 月 5 家样本新势力车企（不 含小米）合计交付 205,354 辆，同比+22.7%。11 月车市进入年末冲刺阶段，虽 然补贴政策的调整引发了消费者观望情绪，但我们认为此举避免了 2025 年底对 于 2026 年销量的过分透支，有利于 2026Q1 的车市趋稳回升。新能源渗透率的 持续提升体现了在补贴收紧后，自主新能源产品仍然具有较强的市场竞争力。 新势力销量稳健，零跑维持首位 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the electronic industry, particularly highlighting companies like Guokewi and Xinhai Technology as key players to watch [5][6][8]. Core Insights - The Harmony ecosystem is rapidly expanding, with over 27 million devices equipped with HarmonyOS 5 and 6, and more than 1 million registered developers [2][4]. - The launch of the HUAWEI FreeBuds Pro 5, which supports the Star Flash audio technology, marks a significant step towards mainstream adoption of this technology [4]. - The Harmony ecosystem has seen a substantial increase in applications, with over 300,000 applications and a compatibility rate exceeding 95%, indicating a mature software ecosystem [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Harmony ecosystem is transitioning from breakthrough to maturity, with significant hardware and software updates showcased in recent product launches like the Huawei Mate 80 series and Mate X7 [2]. - The ecosystem's growth is supported by over 9,000 applications participating in system-level innovations, enhancing usability and user experience [2][3]. Key Companies - Guokewi has achieved significant milestones in chip development, with eight open-source Harmony chip platforms now in mass production across various sectors [3]. - Xinhai Technology is contributing to the Harmony ecosystem by integrating chips, algorithms, and systems to enhance smart home devices [3]. Financial Projections - Guokewi's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.64 CNY in 2025 to 1.34 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 161 to 76 over the same period [5]. - Xinhai Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 0.01 CNY in 2025 to 0.73 CNY in 2027, with a significant reduction in PE from 4297 to 47 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Guokewi, Xinhai Technology, Chuangyao Technology, and Lexin Technology due to their potential in the evolving Harmony ecosystem and audio technology [8].

基于实操视角复盘春季行情 ——策略专题研究 分析师：邓宇林、包承超 研究助理：龚嫣然 报告日期：2025年12月3日 01 春季行情的阶段特征分析 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 02 春季行情中市场风格的表现对比 03 春季行情中市场应对思路推演 02 摘要 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ➢ 本篇报告从实操视角出发，复盘历年春季行情规律。重点讨论：1）春季行情的阶段特征分析；2）春季行情中市场风格 的表现对比；3）春季行情中市场应对思路推演。 ➢ 1、春季行情的阶段特征分析——绝对视角，春季行情多启动于12月下旬至1月中旬，相对视角，启动时点中位数为节前 11个交易日。历年春季行情走势可以归为三类情景——①对称V型；②大级别趋势上涨；③小级别趋势上涨。若春躁启 动时点相对较早，则大概率是趋势行情，进一步情景判断可观察国庆以来跌幅。若启动时点相对较晚，则大概率是对称V 型，破前高或可谨慎。 ➢ 2、春季行情中市场风格的表现对比——小盘成长在春躁中占优，大盘价值在春躁前性价比高。 ➢ 3、春季行情中市场应对思路推演——春节前十个交易日配置，胜率赔率均高，且错过春季行情概率小。 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to address the systematic rotation of market styles by identifying the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future mainstream market style. It evaluates assets based on the priority of "g > ROE > D" to determine whether there are good assets and whether they are overvalued[5][8][12] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define five style stages based on the industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[8] 2. Use the "g > ROE > D" priority to compare assets, focusing on growth (g), profitability (ROE), and dividend yield (D)[5][8] 3. Incorporate factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), and valuation metrics (PB, DP, BP) to classify and evaluate assets[9][12] 4. Apply the framework to select industries and allocate them equally within each strategy[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotation since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 27.06%[19] --- Model Backtesting Results Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Annualized Return**: 27.06% since 2009[19] - **Excess Returns by Year**: - 2017: 27% - 2020: 44% - 2022: 62% - 2024: 52% - 2025 (YTD): 8%[22] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the expected growth rate of industries based on analysts' forecasts, regardless of the lifecycle stage[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the expected growth rate (gf) for each industry 2. Rank industries based on the highest expected growth rates 3. Select top-performing industries for allocation[9][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015 and 2025[38] 2. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on industries with the highest earnings momentum (△g), particularly during transition and growth phases[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use △g to represent earnings momentum 2. Rank industries based on △g and select the top-performing ones 3. Incorporate additional factors such as SUE, SUR, and JOR for refinement[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has consistently delivered significant excess returns, especially in growth-dominant environments[40] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB-ROE residuals for each industry 2. Rank industries based on residuals and select the top-performing ones[43] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor performed strongly from 2016 to 2020 but has weakened since 2021[43] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify industries with the highest scores, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and ROE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[46] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[46] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued industries, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and BP for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[49] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has delivered significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[49] 6. Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with the lowest PB and SIZE scores, focusing on stagnation and recession stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB and SIZE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the lowest-scoring ones[52] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[52] --- Factor Backtesting Results Expected Growth (gf) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium: +51.15% (3 months) - Frozen Food: +14.08% (3 months)[38] Actual Growth (g) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium Chemicals: +51.88% (3 months) - Other Home Appliances: +14.93% (3 months)[41] Profitability (ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Buses: +10.46% (3 months)[43] Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Timber Processing: +145.24% (3 months) - Lithium Equipment: +21.95% (3 months)[46] Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Security: -2.24% (3 months)[49] Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Recent Performance**: - Gas: +15.88% (3 months) - Building Renovation: +16.42% (3 months)[52]