证券研究报告 宏观经济|宏观点评 通胀低于预期市场押注美联储 6 月降息 ——美国 2 月 CPI 数据点评 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月14日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 美国 2 月 CPI 同比增长 2.8%，核心 CPI 同比增长 3.1%，都低于预期和前值。长期的通胀预期 总体来说仍较为稳定，然而短期通胀预期维持相对高位。结构上，核心商品继续通缩，不过离 转正并不远，二手车的通胀同比第二个月正增长，而环比增速略微回落。核心服务通胀环比增 速较上月下行，同比继续小幅回落，居所通胀环比小幅回落，同比增速也继续下行。市场对美 联储 2025 年降息的预期边际变化不大，2025 年降息 2 次及以上的概率约 9 成。目前市场预期 美联储再次降息的时间点或在 6 月。 |分析师及联系人 王博群 方诗超 SAC：S0590524010002 SAC：S0590523030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 18 宏观经济|宏观点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年03月14日 宏观点评 通胀低于预期市场押注美联储 6 月降息 ——美国 2 月 CPI ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth signal with a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, which aligns with market expectations [9][17][18]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and enhancing the effectiveness of the national innovation system, reflecting a shift in focus from previous years [11][28][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Goals Meet Expectations - The government work report outlines the overall requirements and policy direction for economic and social development in 2025, with a focus on stable growth and proactive fiscal policies [4][8][16]. - The GDP growth target of around 5% is seen as a necessary measure to stabilize employment and ensure income growth for residents, especially after recent economic slowdowns [9][17][23]. 1.1 GDP Target Signals Stable Growth - The report sets a GDP growth target of approximately 5%, which is consistent with previous years and aims to address the negative output gap [9][17][23]. 1.2 Fiscal Arrangements Maintain Proactive Tone - The fiscal policy continues to adopt a more proactive stance, with a proposed deficit rate of 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and a local special bond issuance target of 4.4 trillion yuan, up by 500 billion yuan [10][26][27]. 2. Emphasis on Expanding Domestic Demand and Enhancing Innovation System - The report elevates the importance of expanding domestic demand to the top priority, with detailed plans to boost consumption and investment [11][28][29]. - The government aims to support consumption through measures such as issuing 300 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing old consumer goods [29][31]. 2.1 Importance of Expanding Domestic Demand - The report highlights the need to enhance consumer spending and investment, with specific measures to support low-income groups and improve consumption scenarios [29][31]. 2.2 Focus on Enhancing Innovation System Effectiveness - The report includes initiatives to improve the national innovation system, emphasizing high-level technological development and the cultivation of new industries such as commercial aerospace and quantum technology [32][33].

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. slightly increased to 4.1% in February 2025, compared to the expected 4%[4] - The Sahm rule indicator decreased to 0.27%, down from 0.37% last month, alleviating recession concerns[8] - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[30] Non-Farm Payrolls - Non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs in February, slightly below the expected 160,000[9] - The three-month average for non-farm employment growth is 200,000, while the six-month average is 191,000[55] - In February, three sectors saw job losses, while government employment continued to grow[10] Wage Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 4% year-over-year, with a month-over-month increase of 0.3%[11] - Nine sectors outperformed inflation in wage growth, indicating a mixed performance across industries[77] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations suggest a high probability (over 90%) of at least two rate cuts in 2025, with a 65% chance of three or more cuts[13] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait-and-see" approach in the first half of 2025, with potential rate cuts in the second half[4]

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|中科星图（688568） 业绩持续高增，低空+AI 推动公司业务 发展 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月11日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年年报。公司全年实现营收 32.57 亿元，同比+29.49%；实现归母净利润 3.52 亿元，同比+2.67%；实现扣非归母净利润 2.40 亿元，同比+4.03%。其中，2024Q4，公司实现 营收 12.50 亿元，同比+12.00%，环比+38.53%；实现归母净利润 2.06 亿元，同比-13.95%；实 现扣非归母净利润 1.69 亿元，同比-2.70%。 |分析师及联系人 陈安宇 SAC：S0590523080004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年03月11日 中科星图(688568) 业绩持续高增，低空+AI 推动公司业务发展 | 行 业： | 计算机/IT 服务Ⅱ | | --- | --- | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 57.74 元 | 基本数据 | 总 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.869 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 184 million yuan, also down 12.35% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit decreased significantly by 62.69% to 79 million yuan. However, in the fourth quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 707 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.35%, and a net profit of 17 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5][14] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company's raw material drug business saw a revenue of 1.255 billion yuan in 2024, down 25.17% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the sales price of heparin sodium. The demand for heparin raw materials is improving, although the export price has been affected by raw material costs. The nuclear medicine business remained stable, with revenues from 18F-FDG at 421 million yuan (up 0.25% year-on-year) and from cloud injection solutions at 231 million yuan (down 5.48% year-on-year) [15] Nuclear Medicine Development - The company has a leading position in nuclear medicine facilities and product layout. It has received approval for the launch of technetium-99m labeled drugs and has several products in the III phase of clinical trials. The company operates multiple nuclear medicine centers, covering 93.5% of the domestic population's nuclear medicine needs [16] Future Projections - The company is expected to see revenues of 3.098 billion yuan, 3.361 billion yuan, and 3.661 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.99%, 8.50%, and 8.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 237 million yuan, 264 million yuan, and 297 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 28.97%, 11.54%, and 12.23% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.29 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.36 yuan [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - BYD's passenger car sales in February 2025 reached 318,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 161.4% and a month-on-month increase of 7.3% [4][12] - The cumulative sales for January and February 2025 amounted to 615,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 90.4% [4][12] - The high growth rate is attributed to three main factors: the "全民智驾" (全民智驾) intelligent strategy enhancing competitiveness across all price ranges, accelerated clearance of older non-intelligent models with increased discounts, and a low sales base from the previous year due to the absence of a vehicle trade-in policy in February 2024 [4][12] Sales Performance - In February 2025, the sales breakdown by brand showed strong performance: Dynasty + Ocean Network sold 304,673 units, Tengshi 8,513 units, Fangchengbao 4,942 units, and Yangwang 105 units, with year-on-year growth rates of 167.1%, 85.1%, 113.9%, and -86.5% respectively [13] - The high-end brands, represented by Fangchengbao 8 and Tengshi N9, are expected to have strong growth potential due to the intelligent strategy and the "532" strategy [13] Overseas Sales - BYD's overseas sales in February 2025 reached 67,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 187.8% and a month-on-month increase of 1% [14] - Overseas sales accounted for 21.1% of total sales, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points [14] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for BYD from 2024 to 2026 are as follows: 813.06 billion, 952.98 billion, and 1,162.64 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.0%, 17.2%, and 22.0% respectively [15][16] - Net profit projections for the same period are 40.51 billion, 51.38 billion, and 63.92 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.8%, 26.8%, and 24.4% respectively [15][16] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 13.92, 17.66, and 21.97 yuan, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.6% [15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.262 billion yuan, growing by 74.48% year-on-year, closely aligning with previous performance forecasts [4][14] - The growth was driven by strong performance in the energy drink segment and the introduction of new products, with online sales and the North China region showing particularly strong results. The company is transitioning from a leader in energy drinks to a broader beverage platform while expanding into overseas markets, particularly Southeast Asia, which is expected to contribute additional growth [4][16] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 15.839 billion yuan, with a breakdown of revenue from energy drinks at 13.304 billion yuan (up 28.49%), electrolyte drinks at 1.495 billion yuan (up 280.37%), and other beverages at 1.023 billion yuan (up 103.19%). Online sales and various regions, including North China, saw growth rates exceeding 50% [14][15] - The gross margin for 2024 was 44.81%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to favorable raw material costs. The net profit margin for 2024 was 21.00%, up 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [15][16] - The company forecasts revenues of 20.613 billion yuan, 25.423 billion yuan, and 30.375 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.331 billion yuan, 5.487 billion yuan, and 6.698 billion yuan, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.27% [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [6]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a property management model to an international trade comprehensive service provider, focusing on the Yiwu small commodity market with four main business segments: commodity sales, market operations, supporting services, and trade services [3][15][26]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is evolving from traditional property management to innovative platform services, with a primary focus on the Yiwu small commodity market [26]. - The business model primarily relies on rental income from offline shops and office buildings, while also expanding into digital trade services [3][15]. Main Business Segments - **Commodity Sales**: Revenue has rapidly increased from 0.69 billion in 2019 to 67.92 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 214.98% [50]. - **Market Operations**: The market operation business is the core profit contributor, with a stable income model based on rental fees from a vast market area of approximately 6.4 million square meters [55]. - **Supporting Services**: This includes hotel services and exhibition advertising, which support the core business development [15]. - **Trade Services**: The company is enhancing its capabilities in logistics, payment, and trade fulfillment, with significant growth potential in this segment [15][18]. Financial Performance - The company expects revenue growth from 145.38 billion in 2024 to 236.83 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profit growth from 29.82 billion to 57.02 billion [12][19]. - The EBITDA is projected to increase from 4.68 billion in 2024 to 7.98 billion in 2026, indicating strong operational performance [13]. Industry Analysis - The company benefits from supportive policies such as the 1039 model and the Belt and Road Initiative, which enhance its export capabilities and trade facilitation [11][19]. - The Yiwu international trade reform plan is expected to boost the company's import business, presenting new growth opportunities [11][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leader in cobalt lithium materials, with future growth driven by its leading market share in cobalt lithium shipments, advancements in nickel-rich ternary materials, and a strong position in solid-state electrolyte technology [4][16]. - The company is expected to see steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 133.0 billion, 155.9 billion, and 205.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -23.2%, +17.2%, and +31.9% [12][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Cobalt Lithium Leadership and Profitability Recovery - The company has been a pioneer in cobalt lithium production since 2004 and has expanded into ternary materials since 2012, establishing a strong foothold in both consumer electronics and power battery applications [25]. - The company has a significant market share in cobalt lithium, with a projected global market share of 44% by 2024, driven by increasing demand from the 3C electronics sector [11][16]. 2. Ternary Material Technology Advantages - The company’s nickel-rich high-voltage products are technologically advanced and have achieved mass production, with a focus on meeting the growing demand in the electric vehicle sector [11][12]. - The company is developing ultra-high nickel products and has a comprehensive product range covering all nickel series and voltage platforms, enhancing its competitive edge [16]. 3. Solid-State Electrolyte and NL Electrode Advancements - The NL electrode material shows significant advantages in energy density, cycle life, and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional materials, with plans for application in various sectors by 2025 [12][34]. - The company is strategically positioned in the solid-state electrolyte market, with promising results from pilot tests indicating substantial cost reduction potential [12][34]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.18, 1.85, and 2.37 yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.64% over three years [12][18]. - The report estimates a fair value of 65.80 yuan per share based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, with a target price of 66.6 yuan considering the company's leadership in cobalt lithium and ongoing product innovations [12][18].

证券研究报告 |报告要点 印尼水产、家禽养殖规模持续扩大，2022 年印尼水产养殖量达 1463.39 万吨，家禽肉产量达 415.78 万吨，2002-2022 年间复合增速分别为 13.63%、6.85%。印尼人均 GDP 的持续增长推动 肉类消费升级，并带动养殖业规模和饲料需求的持续扩张，印尼饲料市场前景广阔。CPIN 、 Japfa 等饲料生产龙头企业凭借产业链一体化优势，销售额和市占率不断增长。海大集团积极 拓展海外市场，将"饲料+种苗+动保"的海大模式推向国际。2024 年海大集团海外饲料销量 达 240 万吨（同比+40%），呈高速增长态势，因此建议重点关注海大集团的海外发展。 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 23 王明琦 马鹏 SAC：S0590524040003 SAC：S0590524050001 行业研究|行业深度研究|农林牧渔 海外饲料市场洞察之印尼篇： 潜力蓝海待挖掘，产业布局正当时 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月07日 证券研究报告 行业研究|行业深度研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年03月07日 农林牧 ...