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电力设备行业点评研究:双碳支撑新能源高景气,高性能锂电趋势利好龙头
国联民生证券· 2025-03-07 08:35
双碳支撑新能源高景气,高性能锂电趋 势利好龙头 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月07日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|电力设备 2025 年 3 月 5 日,十四届全国人大三次会议开幕,李强总理作 2025 年《政府工作报告》,提 到"积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和"、"加快建设'沙戈荒'新能源基地,发展海上风电,统筹就 地消纳和外送通道建设"。我们预计,在新能源发电经济性突出、"双碳"指引明确的背景下, 2025 年风电光伏装机需求有望保持高景气度,海风有望迎接加速建设期,前两年特高压开工 线路有望迎来集中交付期,提振相关公司业绩。两会明确将智能网联新能源车作为"新质生产 力"的代表,低碳、高性能、全球化有望成为锂电发展趋势。 |分析师及联系人 SAC:S0590524110005 SAC:S0590524120001 SAC:S0590524080006 SAC:S0590523040002 瞿学迁 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 张磊 李灵雪 陈子锐 梁丰铄 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年03 ...
机构加速部署DeepSeek,AI赋能落地可期
国联民生证券· 2025-03-06 03:19
证券研究报告 |分析师及联系人 刘雨辰 朱丽芳 耿张逸 陈昌涛 SAC:S0590522100001 SAC:S0590524080001 SAC:S0590524100001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 16 行业研究|行业专题研究|非银金融 机构加速部署 DeepSeek,AI 赋能落地可 期 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月04日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 当前金融科技已经在金融行业的各个领域得到了广泛的应用,尤其是银行、证券、保险等规模 较大、发展较早的行业。后续随着我国经济持续向好、金融机构国产化替代需求加大的背景 下,金融科技对于金融机构提高经营效率、降低经营成本、优化服务能力和质量将起到更大的 推动作用,建议关注各类金融 IT 公司,如指南针、同花顺、东方财富、众安在线等。 扫码查看更多 ➢ 金融科技飞速发展,当前参与者众多 随着国家对自主可控和国产替代的重视程度、扶持力度不断加大,金融机构纷纷 推动以信息技术创新发展为代表的科技与业务深度融合,金融机构的科技投入呈 现增长态势。2018-2022 年,银行、证券、保险行业的科技投入合计由 18 ...
比亚迪(002594):435亿港元H股闪电配售为海外扩张提供充足保障
国联民生证券· 2025-03-06 03:10
证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|比亚迪(002594) 435 亿港元 H 股闪电配售为海外扩张提 供充足保障 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月04日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2025 年 3 月 4 日,比亚迪发布公告,宣布与配售代理签署配售协议,将配售发行近 1.3 亿股 新 H 股。假设所有配售股份全数配售,配售所得款项总额预计为 435.09 亿港元,扣除佣金和 估计费用后预计约为 433.83 亿港元。配售所得款拟作公司研发投入、海外业务发展、补充营 运资金以及一般企业用途。本次交易成功吸引了全球众多顶级长线、主权基金、中东战略投资 人在内的投资者参与,认购订单多倍覆盖,充分彰显了全球投资人对比亚迪发展前景的看好。 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 高登 陈斯竹 黄程保 SAC:S0590523110004 SAC:S0590523100009 SAC:S0590523020001 比亚迪(002594) 435 亿港元 H 股闪电配售为海外扩张提供充 足保障 | 行 业: | 汽车/乘用车 | | --- | --- | | ...
石头科技(688169):2024年业绩快报点评:收入大超预期,竞争烈度提升
国联民生证券· 2025-03-04 12:10
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase, with Q4 2024 revenue growing by 66% year-on-year, marking the fastest quarterly growth since Q2 2021, driven by subsidies and new product launches [3][12] - The company is strategically increasing marketing expenditures to enhance competitive advantages, despite a rise in competition intensity [3][12] - The company is focusing on both expanding its product range and refining existing products to achieve new scale heights [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 11.927 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.981 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.42% [12] - Q4 2024 saw operating revenue of 4.920 billion yuan, up 65.94% year-on-year, with a net profit of 509 million yuan, down 26.34% year-on-year [12] Market Position and Strategy - The company’s market share for domestic online retail in Q4 2024 was 13% for floor cleaning machines and 9% for washing machines, with significant growth in both categories [3][12] - The company is actively promoting new products and increasing brand investment, particularly in the domestic market and during major sales events like Black Friday [12] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 15.216 billion yuan and 19.316 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.58% and 26.95% [12] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 10.85 yuan and 12.89 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 23.4 and 19.7 [12]
新宝股份(002705):2024年业绩快报点评:外销较优增长延续,内销仍有承压
国联民生证券· 2025-03-04 12:10
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][4] Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain steady growth due to its strong export capabilities and recent management changes, which may revitalize governance [4][14] - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 18.28 billion and 19.93 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 8.7% and 9.0% respectively [4][14] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 1.20 billion and 1.37 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 13.8% and 14.5% [4][14] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.84% [13] - Operating profit for 2024 was 1.33 billion yuan, up 1.39% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.05 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.47% increase [13] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 4.13 billion yuan, a 6.15% increase year-on-year, but operating profit decreased by 11.01% [13] Export and Domestic Sales Analysis - Export sales showed strong growth throughout 2024, with year-on-year increases of 31%, 24%, 20%, and 14% in each quarter respectively [13] - Domestic sales faced challenges, with year-on-year declines of 15% and 11% in Q3 and Q4 [13][14] Management Changes - The company underwent significant management changes in January 2024, marking the first presidential change in 13 years, which is expected to usher in a new phase for the company [14] Valuation Metrics - The current valuation multiples for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 10.8 and 9.4 times earnings respectively [4][14]
国联民生研究:2025年3月金股组合
国联民生证券· 2025-03-04 07:40
证券研究报告 联合研究|联合研究点评 【国联民生研究】2025 年 3 月金股组 合 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年03月02日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2 月市场在主题的带动下持续上行,之后市场可能会因为政策产生分化。从 2 月到 4 月,市场 会依次围绕主题、政策和基本面逐一展开交易。从历年情况看,春节到两会的行情延续性较 强,而两会后市场会因为政策的强度和流动性的情况有所分化;如果政策的力度较大,顺周期 资产可能表现更好;如果政策的力度偏弱,市场的弹性可能会有所减弱,并且主题可能仍会是 市场的主线。随着两会的临近,政策和宏观交易可能是后续市场的主要矛盾,建议持续关注。 |分析师及联系人 SAC:S0590524030005 SAC:S0590524040003 SAC:S0590523110004 SAC:S0590524030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 10 包承超 邓宇林 刘雨辰 管泉森 SAC:S0590523100005 SAC:S0590523100008 SAC:S0590522100001 SAC:S0590523100007 刘景 ...
两会前后的市场展望
国联民生证券· 2025-02-27 01:25
证券研究报告 策略研究|点评报告 两会前后的市场展望 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年02月26日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 27 包承超 邓宇林 肖遥志 SAC:S0590523100005 SAC:S0590523100008 SAC:S0590523110008 1) 春节到两会期间,行情的延续性往往较高,小盘明显强于大盘,胜率也普遍较高;但是两 会后,各年之间有比较大的分化。 2) 从以往市场成交热度来到高位后,各行业的表现看,短期内动量效应往往较强。复盘历次 TMT 大行情的回调,一般会发生在两种情形下:(1)有其他行业成为新的市场主线,取代 TMT 行业的热度;(2)市场整体快速回调,带动市场回落。 3) 当前货币和社融已经逐步企稳,如想看见趋势性行情,仍需等待盈利周期的上行。 策略研究|点评报告 glzqdatemark2 2025年02月26日 策略周报 两会前后的市场展望 相关报告 1 、《 特 朗 普 " 对 等 关 税 " 三 问 三 答 》 2025.02.18 2、《特朗普关税 2.0,从"工 ...
鱼跃医疗(002223):聚焦成长赛道的家用医疗器械龙头
国联民生证券· 2025-02-21 07:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7]. Core Insights - Yuyue Medical, as a leading domestic home medical device platform company, has shown steady growth in performance due to its focus on respiratory oxygen, blood glucose, disinfection control, and home electronic testing. The aging population in China presents a significant market opportunity for home medical devices, and the company is expected to leverage its brand and channel advantages to increase market share domestically and expand its overseas business [4][13][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Yuyue Medical was established in 1998 and has developed a strong brand in home medical devices, including wheelchairs, oxygen machines, and blood pressure monitors. The company has expanded its business through acquisitions and has focused on three core growth areas: respiratory, blood glucose, and home POCT [26][27]. - The management team has extensive experience in the home medical device industry, with a stable shareholding structure [27][30]. 2. Market Growth Drivers - The aging population in China is increasing, with projections indicating that by around 2032, the elderly population will exceed 20% of the total population. This demographic shift is expected to drive demand for home medical devices [14][40]. - The domestic market for home medical devices is projected to reach approximately 2,343 billion yuan in 2023, maintaining a double-digit growth rate [14][42]. 3. Business Segments - The respiratory oxygen segment is expected to see continued growth, with the global home respiratory device market projected to reach $5.58 billion by 2025, driven by an increasing prevalence of chronic respiratory diseases [15][46]. - The blood glucose management segment is also growing rapidly, with the number of diabetes patients in China expected to rise, creating a significant market for related medical devices [62]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Yuyue Medical from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 81.59 billion yuan, 93.69 billion yuan, and 106.83 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.36%, 14.82%, and 14.03% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 20.20 billion yuan, 23.09 billion yuan, and 26.54 billion yuan for the same period [16][19]. - The estimated reasonable stock price based on absolute valuation methods is 46.99 yuan, and the target price is set at 46.07 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [16][19].
特朗普关税2.0,从“工具性”与“回合制”开始
国联民生证券· 2025-02-12 07:50
4 国联民生证券 证券研究报告 策略研究 专题报告 特朗普关税2.0,从"工具性"与"回 合制"开始 al a long the stimation of the comments of t 1 1 7 3 11:15 1 1 200 AVAR Farmis 124 ama CHOOL HEAT 17 FIGHT 10:00 1983 NEW an 日 app 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 2025年02月12日 联居士师 证券研究报告 |报告要点 "特朗普关税2.0"在政策摇摆中正式开启。尽管本轮美国方面政策的呼声高、速度快,但从 特朗普的表态看,其谈判筹码属性较强,中国的反制也较为克制。往后市看,10%的额外税率或 不是终点,但"边打边谈"预期下,暂缓与豁免也可能反复出现。整体而言,关税冲击对权益 市场的影响在逐渐弱化,叠加我们对今年中国出口仍有韧性的判断,我们维持前期观点,即今 年的出口仍有明显的结构性机会,具体的思路与线索详见正文。 |分析师及联系人 杨灵修 包承超 邓宇林 万清昱 SAC: S0590523010002 SAC: S0590523100005 SAC: S0590523100008 ...