ERP的改进实践 ——策略专题研究 研究团队：邓宇林、包承超、周长民 报告日期：2025年12月3日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 03 摘要 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 03 A股市场，ERP（Fed Model）的上下两倍标准差分别对应 权益市场的阶段性低点和高点 图表：以美联储，1/PE-无风险利率（通常为10年国债收益率）的方式，计算的万得全A股权风险溢价（ERP） 资料来源：wind，国联民生证券研究所 2 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 03 1980-2002年，ERP（Fed Model）对美股的指引作用较 强，但后续明显失效 ➢ 1、Fed Model重要假设：股票定价时，使用名义利率而非实际利率，利率和估值负相关。 ➢ 2、Fed Model失效的原因：低利率低通胀低增长时代，投资者理性地调低了对未来名义盈利增长的预 期，利率下行但估值依旧下降。 ➢ 3、无论是美股还是A股，基于DCF模型计算Implied ERP，对股债收益率更有指引性。 ➢ 风险提示：全球地缘政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。市场流动性超预期变化。历史 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited with a "Buy" rating [6][20]. Core Views - GCL-Poly focuses on the new energy high-tech sector, gradually becoming a leader in the polysilicon industry, forming a silicon-based industrial system centered on granular silicon, with collaborative development in semiconductor silicon and photovoltaic silicon wafers [4][12]. - The company’s granular silicon products are rapidly improving in quality, meeting the higher quality demands of the N-type era, and its cost competitiveness is expected to stand out during the industry's supply-side adjustment period [4][14]. - The report anticipates that GCL-Poly's profitability will gradually improve as the industry recovers, supported by its low-carbon attributes and cost advantages [15][20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - GCL-Poly is a leading global photovoltaic high-tech materials company, primarily engaged in the production of photovoltaic polysilicon and wafers, perovskite components, and high-purity silicon for semiconductors [24][25]. - The company has developed advanced self-research granular silicon technology and is focusing on low-carbon products, gradually forming two major industrial systems: silicon-based materials and perovskite battery materials [25]. Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic industry is currently in a phase of supply-demand adjustment, with a focus on high-tech and low-energy consumption [31]. - The report predicts that the photovoltaic demand growth will slow down, with domestic photovoltaic installations expected to reach 300 GW in 2025, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [31][33]. - The industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a decline in product prices, with polysilicon prices remaining at historical lows [33][34]. Competitive Advantages - GCL-Poly's granular silicon products are expected to gain market share due to their lower production energy consumption compared to traditional rod silicon, with cash costs projected to drop to 24.16 CNY/kg by Q3 2025 [14][18]. - The company’s granular silicon has demonstrated superior performance in terms of minority carrier lifetime and has been validated for use in N-type monocrystalline applications, achieving 100% mass production by leading silicon wafer manufacturers [14][18]. - The report highlights that GCL-Poly's granular silicon has a significantly lower carbon footprint, reducing carbon emissions by approximately 75% compared to traditional methods [63]. Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts GCL-Poly's revenues for 2025-2027 to be 148.5 billion CNY, 195.0 billion CNY, and 216.2 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.6%, 31.3%, and 10.8% [15][20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 7.2 billion CNY in 2025 to a profit of 29.4 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability [15][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The AI power supply is achieving "military-grade" efficiency improvements, indicating a significant potential for onboard power systems [1]. - The report highlights that the traditional power supply models for AI cabinets may be approaching physical limits, suggesting that military power supply vendors are well-positioned to enter the AI power market [30][45]. - The overall market for power supplies is expansive, with rapid growth driven by investments in new energy generation, storage, and applications in various sectors [11]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overview of Power Supply Characteristics Across Industries - The power supply industry has a total market size exceeding 500 billion, with a growth rate of 32.33% in 2022, reaching a total output value of 517.4 billion [11]. - Key downstream applications include consumer electronics, industrial control, new energy vehicles, and medical devices, with IT and consumer electronics holding the largest market shares [11]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with over a thousand domestic companies in the switching power supply sector, leading to a low concentration of market share [12]. Section 2: Power Supply Requirements in Various Applications - Military power supplies have the highest requirements for power, temperature adaptability, and reliability compared to other sectors [25]. - AI power supplies are evolving, with current architectures requiring multiple voltage conversions, which may soon shift to a more efficient two-stage process with the adoption of 800V DC systems [57][61]. - The report discusses the specific power requirements for medical devices, communication equipment, and new energy vehicles, highlighting the varying demands across these sectors [13][20][21]. Section 3: Future Trends and Market Opportunities - The transition to 800V DC power supply architecture is expected to simplify power distribution in data centers, potentially leading to significant market growth [50][57]. - New Ray Energy is actively developing AI power solutions, leveraging its expertise in military-grade power supplies to tap into the growing AI market [47][49]. - The report emphasizes that as AI cabinet power approaches traditional physical limits, military power supply technologies will be crucial in meeting future demands [45][46].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, exceeding guidance [4][12] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.52 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin increase of 0.5 percentage points [4][12] - The company has opened over 2,000 new hotels year-to-date, indicating strong expansion [14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 70 billion yuan, with M&F revenue at 33 billion yuan, reflecting a 27.2% year-on-year growth [4][12] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 15.2 billion yuan, marking a 10.8% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin improvement of 0.5 percentage points [4][12] Operational Metrics - The domestic RevPAR for Q3 2025 was 256 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while the ADR increased by 0.9% [14] - The company opened 749 new hotels in Q3 2025, with a total of over 2,000 new hotels opened this year, suggesting an annual opening rate exceeding the previous guidance of 2,300 hotels [14] Strategic Outlook - The company maintains a strong market position with a focus on high-quality expansion and a light-asset strategy, which has led to a steady increase in franchise business profitability [13][15] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 250.95 billion yuan, 266.46 billion yuan, and 284.94 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 5.0%, 6.2%, and 6.9% [15]

证券研究报告 |报告要点 基数及经营节奏影响下，空调 10 月内外销压力如期释放，国内龙头终端表现好于出货，产业 健康运行，价格体系稳定为主，经营面α及积极变化值得关注；出口关税压力减轻，美国开启 降息，有望带动外需，龙头 OBM 势能强劲，海外转产持续推进，修复阶段或好于线性预期。 |分析师及联系人 行业研究|行业点评研究|家用电器 产业在线 10 月空调数据简评： 压力释放，静待拐点 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年11月19日 证券研究报告 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 6 孙珊 管泉森 蔡奕娴 SAC：S0590523110003 SAC：S0590523100007 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年11月19日 家用电器 产业在线 10 月空调数据简评： 压力释放，静待拐点 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2024/11 2025/3 2025/7 2025/11 家用电器 沪深300 相关报告 1、《家用电器：从双十一看家电：韧性收官， 关注结构红利》2025 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][17]. Core Insights - The company has conducted a placement of 49.5 million shares at a price of HKD 41.70 per share, which represents 2.17% of the total share capital. This placement is expected to enhance liquidity and attract institutional investors [5][14]. - The company is projected to maintain a strong sales performance, ranking among the top three in the industry, with a focus on acquiring high-quality land in core first and second-tier cities [5][15]. - The company's shopping center operations are expanding steadily, with notable performance in lower-tier markets, indicating a robust operational capability and brand influence [5][16]. - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to show consistent growth, with net profits projected at HKD 40.73 billion, HKD 45.54 billion, and HKD 51.05 billion respectively [5][17]. Summary by Sections Placement and Liquidity - The placement by the controlling shareholder, China Resources Land, aims to diversify the shareholder structure and improve stock liquidity, with expected proceeds of approximately HKD 20.61 billion for land acquisition and operational costs [5][14][15]. Sales Performance and Land Acquisition - For the period from January to October 2025, the company achieved a cumulative sales amount of HKD 169.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.6%, consistent with the industry's performance. The land acquisition amount was HKD 33.4 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 37.6% [5][15]. Shopping Center Expansion - As of the first half of 2025, the company operates 125 shopping centers, with six new openings in the third quarter. The expansion includes both first-tier cities and lower-tier cities, demonstrating the company's competitive advantage in operational capabilities [5][16]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from HKD 184.97 billion in 2025 to HKD 221.53 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from HKD 40.73 billion to HKD 51.05 billion [5][17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7][12] Core Insights - As of the end of Q3 2025, the insurance industry's investment balance reached 37.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 12.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [4][9] - The investment balance for life insurance and property insurance companies was 33.7 trillion yuan and 2.4 trillion yuan, respectively, with life insurance showing a year-to-date growth of 12.6% and property insurance at 7.5% [4][9] - Life insurance companies are increasing their allocation to equity assets, with a notable rise in stock and fund investments, while the proportion of bonds is marginally decreasing [10][11] Summary by Sections Investment Balance - The insurance industry's investment balance is 37.5 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025, with life insurance companies holding 33.7 trillion yuan and property insurance companies holding 2.4 trillion yuan [4][9] - The growth rates for these balances are 12.6% for life insurance and 7.5% for property insurance compared to the beginning of the year [4][9] Asset Allocation - Life insurance companies have allocated 19.69 trillion yuan to fixed income assets and 7.89 trillion yuan to equity assets, with the latter increasing by 13.3% from the previous quarter [10] - The allocation ratios for fixed income and equity assets are 58.4% and 23.4%, respectively, indicating a shift towards equities [10] - Property insurance companies have allocated 1.34 trillion yuan to fixed income and 0.55 trillion yuan to equity assets, with equity allocation increasing by 5.8% [11] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that improvements in new business value rates and asset returns will support growth in the insurance sector throughout 2025 [12] - Specific stock recommendations include China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and others [12]

Group 1: Dollar's Global Status - The current Jamaican monetary system may face significant changes, indicating that the excessive privilege of the dollar may have expired[4] - The U.S. trade deficit has persisted for about 50 years, and the cost and benefits of the dollar as a global public good may be changing[6] - By 2024, the U.S. primary income balance (asset income minus liability payments) is projected to turn negative, which could signal a potential debt spiral[6] Group 2: Historical Context of Currency Changes - Historically, global currencies have undergone three major transitions since 1500, with the dollar's dominance potentially being shorter than its predecessors[7] - The dollar surpassed the pound as the global currency in approximately 20 years, suggesting that a successor to the dollar could emerge sooner than expected[8] Group 3: Economic Implications - If the dollar ceases to be the global currency, long-term U.S. Treasury rates could rise significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase of up to 80 basis points[10] - The U.S. has maintained a trade deficit exceeding $23.8 trillion since the dissolution of the Bretton Woods system, indicating a structural issue in the dollar's role[23] Group 4: Tariff Policy and Revenue - The "reciprocal tariff" policy may lead to a significant increase in average tariff rates, potentially generating additional tariff revenue in the range of hundreds of billions of dollars[30] - A comprehensive 10% tariff could yield approximately $264.4 billion in additional revenue, while a 20% tariff could approach $400 billion[39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net revenue of 23.052 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit decreased by 36.1% to 747 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in the proportion of high-margin businesses and a reduction in non-operating income [5][13]. - The company continues to optimize operational efficiency, with a total GTV of 736.7 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year. Cost rigidity has impacted profit margins, leading to a 1.3 percentage point decline in overall gross margin to 21.4% [13][17]. - The "two wings" business segments, home decoration and rental services, showed significant improvement, with rental income increasing by 45.3% year-on-year to 5.727 billion yuan, achieving profitability at the city level [5][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the existing home GTV was 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, but net income decreased by 3.6% to 5.991 billion yuan due to a higher proportion of GTV from agents [14]. - The new home GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year, with net income declining by 14.1% to 6.639 billion yuan, reflecting a similar trend to the national residential sales decline [15]. - The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 6.083 billion, 7.146 billion, and 8.095 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23x, 20x, and 17x [17]. Business Segments - Home decoration and rental services both achieved city-level profitability, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and rental services revenue at 5.727 billion yuan, up 45.3% year-on-year [16]. - The contribution margin for home decoration improved by 0.8 percentage points, while rental services saw a 4.3 percentage point increase in contribution margin [16]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 94.665 billion, 92.631 billion, and 96.035 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.3%, -2.1%, and 3.7% respectively [18]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to decline by 15.5% in 2025, followed by increases of 17.5% and 13.3% in 2026 and 2027 [17][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the market is more focused on industry-level prosperity rather than individual stock profit growth elasticity [4][6][11] - The report indicates that marginal changes in industry performance may be more significant than simply high prosperity levels [7][22][25] - For industry trend markets, the report notes that the market tends to price absolute profit growth rather than marginal changes [8][30][32] Group 2 - The report highlights that the prosperity style has been dominant throughout the year but has started to weaken recently [11][12] - It is observed that while TMT industries have a high proportion of prosperity at the industry level, this advantage is not as evident at the individual stock level [17][20] - The report suggests that aside from TMT, there are other industries worth attention that meet the criteria of high prosperity and high marginal change [35][36]