行业研究|行业深度研究|房地产 现房试点逐步推行，优质房企"剩者为 王" 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年05月20日 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 |报告要点 顶层设计推动房地产新发展模式，现房销售是重要一环，预计各地将逐步出台现房试点政策 和配套支持。现房对于行业能防范交付风险、降供给稳房价，助力楼市止跌回稳；对于房企在 经营能力方面要求更高，产品品质好、运营效率高、融资能力强的房企更能适应现房销售模 式，其他房企或加速出清，优质房企"剩者为王"。推荐在重点城市核心区持续拿地的头部央 国企和改善型房企。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590524070006 SAC：S0590524100003 SAC：S0590524070008 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 20 杜昊旻 方鹏 姜好幸 刘汪 行业研究|行业深度研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年05月20日 海外普遍采用"低首付+强监管+风险共担"机制，以法律制度、金融工具和第三方 托管保障购房者权益。美国、日本、英国、德国等地普遍要求开发商竣工或按工程 进度进行回款，房款由律师、信托或金融机构托管。 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from being a virtual goods agent for telecom operators to a builder of cloud terminal platforms, with a projected revenue CAGR of 32% from 2020 to 2024, and a 45% revenue growth in Q1 2025 [1][2]. - The digital goods operation serves as a stable cash flow business, while the cloud terminal and IoT operations are expected to drive rapid growth in the second and third curves of the business [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2012, has expanded its business from digital goods operations to IoT traffic operations and AI + computing operations, becoming a core technology service provider for Huawei Cloud [10][12]. - Digital goods services account for over 80% of revenue, with IoT and cloud terminal operations poised for significant growth [12][38]. Digital Goods Operations - The company integrates various digital goods and fragmented channel resources, establishing stable partnerships with telecom operators and video service providers [1][25]. - The business model is highly replicable across regions and customer segments, with a focus on online and rights-based services [47][30]. Cloud Terminal Operations - The company collaborates with Huawei and China Mobile to develop cloud phones, enhancing user experience through cloud-based computing [2][48]. - The cloud phone user base is rapidly growing, with a target of over 100 million users in three years, leading to increased revenue from shared income [2][56]. IoT Scene Operations - The company has developed IoT traffic operations and solutions, targeting various sectors with a focus on traffic operation as the core business model [3][73]. - It has established partnerships with over 500 industry clients, leveraging its technology to provide comprehensive IoT solutions [73][84]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 134 million, 193 million, 280 million, and 406 million yuan from 2024 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 68x, 47x, 32x, and 22x [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for rapid development in the second and third business curves, recommending investment based on strong growth prospects [3][4].

国联民生证券 GUOLIAN MINSHENG SECURITIES 2025年05月13日 联居生证券 证券研究报告 |报告要点 中美经贸高层在瑞士日内瓦举行会谈后发布日内瓦联合声明显著下调互加的额外关税。概括 总结起来,相对于 2025年之前的情况而言,美国对中国会加征约 30%的关税;中国对美国加 征 10%的关税。从中美谈判以及美英谈判结果观察,美国本轮对全球加征关税的最低税率可能 就是 10%,"对等关税"较高的税率部分可能是为了让其他国家与美国谈判的极限施压手段。 定量测算上,美国落地 10%的"最低基准关税"可能有两方面影响,美国的进口或会下降 6524 亿美元,美国可能征收到约 2644 亿美元的额外关税收入。 证券研究报告 宏观经济 宝观点评 特朗普"对等关税"最低税率或是 10% 中美显著下调互加的额外关税点评 1 1 11:21:54 7 1990 AVACK reas 124 s ma 17 CONTRIENT 1980 100 100 a Wa 1983 THEN 日 11 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 方诗超 王博群 SAC: S0590524010002 SAC: S059052 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that concerns regarding Chinese concept stocks (中概股) have resurfaced, particularly due to potential investment restrictions from the U.S. government and the re-emphasis on the HFCAA [8][16] - It concludes that the short-term risks associated with the delisting of Chinese concept stocks are manageable, as over 70% of these stocks have completed dual listings in Hong Kong and the U.S. [17][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the reduction pressure on stocks with high U.S. institutional holdings, especially those exceeding 40% [19][58] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the performance of dual-listed Chinese concept stocks has been superior during previous market turbulence, suggesting a higher resilience to risks [18][42] - The report notes that the trading volume in the Hong Kong market for dual-listed stocks has been increasing, with the proportion reaching approximately 39% as of April 17, 2025 [52][54] - It identifies 34 companies that meet the criteria for dual primary or secondary listings in Hong Kong, which could enhance market liquidity and attract more investment if they return [20][22] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential impact of U.S. investment restrictions, which could lead to forced sell-offs by U.S. institutional investors holding significant stakes in certain stocks [19][58] - It highlights that the market capitalization of Chinese concept stocks listed only in the U.S. is heavily concentrated in the consumer discretionary sector, accounting for 69.6% [34] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the potential delisting processes, indicating that the timeline for forced delisting could take at least 9-10 months [37][40]

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Outperform the market, maintained [2] - Core Viewpoint: The report highlights the growth potential of the collectible card game industry, with the company positioned as a leader in the market [3][4] Group 2 - Company Overview: The company is a leading player in China's collectible card game sector, focusing on a diverse product portfolio that includes toys, figurines, and stationery [7][9] - Industry Overview: The IP toy market is thriving, with collectible card categories experiencing the fastest growth [21][22] - Financial Performance: The company's revenue growth is driven by top IP products, with significant increases in sales figures [8][10] Group 3 - Business Model: The company employs an integrated business model that leverages product experience, interactive operations, and production capabilities [13][55] - Product Portfolio: The core product is collectible cards, complemented by figurines, other toys, and stationery, showcasing a diverse product range [54][80] - IP Matrix: The company has established a diverse IP matrix, enhancing its overall IP operation capabilities [83]

Group 1 - During the 2018 China-US trade friction, domestic demand-oriented companies outperformed export-oriented companies in both fundamentals and stock prices. The gap in revenue and net profit growth between these two types of companies was relatively controllable despite the tariffs imposed by the US [8][14][29] - The performance of companies with high exposure to the US market did not significantly differ from those with high exposure to the EU and emerging markets. This indicates that the market is more focused on the companies' domestic demand replacement capabilities and the resilience of global supply chain restructuring rather than their geographical export distribution [14][45] - A detailed analysis using the FactSet supply chain database revealed that companies with no revenue from the US market in their downstream operations performed better in terms of net profit growth, revenue growth, gross margin, and net margin compared to other combinations of companies [15][56] Group 2 - The report identifies industries with low revenue exposure to the US market, including coal, building materials, social services, food and beverage, telecommunications, and public utilities, which can be considered as domestic demand-oriented industries from a supply chain perspective [15][56] - The analysis suggests that companies with low exposure to the US market in their downstream operations are likely to have better net value performance, as evidenced by their slower decline in net profit growth during challenging market conditions [60][63] - The report emphasizes that the overall market sentiment is shifting towards value-oriented investments, with a gradual stabilization observed in the market [20][22]

Company Overview - Investment Rating: Outperform the market, maintained [2] - Core Viewpoint: Chery Automobile is positioned for a new chapter in intelligent electric vehicles, focusing on technology and global expansion [2][3] Company Development - Chery Automobile has evolved from reverse engineering to independent innovation, establishing itself as a global leader [3][4] - The company has a rich history of milestones, including the launch of its first car in 1999 and the establishment of its electric vehicle technology company in 2010 [5][9] Business Strategy - Chery's business model includes a dual focus on passenger and commercial vehicles, with a strong emphasis on both traditional fuel and new energy vehicles [12][14] - The company operates multiple brands, including Chery, EXEED, and iCAR, to cover various market segments and consumer needs [93][96] Financial Performance - In 2022, Chery Group's automotive sales reached 1.23 million units, with revenue exceeding 200 billion yuan for the first time [33] - By 2024, the group expects to achieve sales of 2.6 million units and revenue of 480 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 50% [33][41] Industry Trends - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation driven by electrification, intelligence, and globalization [42] - Global automotive sales are projected to reach 90.87 million units in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.8% [43][44] Market Position - Chery is positioned as a key player in the domestic market, with a focus on expanding its international presence [96] - The company has seen significant growth in export volumes, leading the Chinese brand passenger car exports for 22 consecutive years [76][96] Technological Advancements - Chery has invested heavily in R&D, with expenditures reaching 6.66 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 82.8% [84] - The company has developed a comprehensive R&D system with over 13,000 patents, enhancing its competitive edge in the automotive sector [84][87] Global Expansion - Chery's global strategy includes entering emerging markets and strengthening its presence in traditional markets like Russia [96] - The company aims to leverage its multi-brand strategy to capture diverse market segments and enhance international competitiveness [96]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report indicates that Haier Smart Home's revenue for Q4 2024 reached 83.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.88%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.59 billion yuan, up 3.96% year-on-year. For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 285.98 billion yuan, a 4.29% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 18.74 billion yuan, up 12.92% year-on-year. The domestic sales have shown a turning point due to policy stimulation and proactive adjustments in the Chinese market, while overseas performance remains stable. The company is expected to see accelerated revenue growth in 2025 as structural improvements and one-time impacts gradually dissipate [3][12][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Haier's revenue increased by 10% year-on-year, with significant growth in domestic sales driven by government policies and improved product structure. The company reported a notable increase in the shipment of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, with year-on-year growth of 10%, 8%, and 29% respectively. The premium brand Casarte saw a 30% increase in revenue in Q4 [13]. - For the full year 2024, Haier's overseas revenue grew by 5%, with the second half showing a 7% increase compared to the first half. The integration of Carrier Refrigeration positively impacted the results [13]. Profitability and Costs - The report highlights an improvement in real profitability, although there were one-time factors that affected results. In Q4 2024, the net profit margin decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin increased by 1.3 percentage points. The increase in expense ratios was attributed to accounting adjustments and the integration of new entities [14]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.65 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 8.997 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 48% [12]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates strong domestic sales and structural improvements for Haier in 2025, projecting net profits of 21.19 billion yuan and 23.96 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.0x and 10.6x. The dividend yield is expected to be around 4% [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7][11][13] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on performance due to fluctuations in freight rates, but its flexible operations are expected to stabilize performance [5][11] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.921 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4% [5][11] - The company is a leader in the refined oil transportation market in the Far East, with a strong ability to withstand risks and navigate through cycles [5][11][13] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 1.467 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and a net profit of 265 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.0% [5][11] - The refined oil transportation business generated revenue of 3.751 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 32.8%, down 2.88 percentage points year-on-year [11][12] - The crude oil transportation business maintained stable revenue of 1.866 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 37.7% [11][12] Future Outlook - The company expects operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 6.520 billion yuan, 7.006 billion yuan, and 7.536 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.7%, 7.5%, and 7.6% [13][14] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.630 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%, followed by increases in subsequent years [13][14] - The company is anticipated to maintain a strong position in the market due to its flexible fleet operations [5][11][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit and dividends per share (DPS), with a stable dividend payout ratio [12][14]. - The net profit for 2024 reached 26.229 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 201.1% [14]. - The company adjusted its investment return assumptions, lowering the rate from 4.5% to 4.0% and the risk discount rate from 9.0% to 8.5% [4][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a new business value (NBV) of 6.253 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 106.8% compared to the previous year [13]. - The total investment income for 2024 was 79.687 billion yuan, up 251.6% year-on-year [14]. - The annualized net, total, and comprehensive investment returns were 3.2%, 5.8%, and 8.5%, respectively [14]. Business Growth - The NBV margin improved to 14.6%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year [13]. - The company’s agent count decreased to 136,000 by the end of 2024, but the average performance of agents showed a positive trend with a 41% increase in productivity [13]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 2.53 yuan per share, a 197% increase from the previous year, maintaining a payout ratio of approximately 30% [14]. Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23.389 billion yuan, 27.439 billion yuan, and 30.864 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of -10.8%, +17.3%, and +12.5% [15].