Group 1 - The core investment strategy focuses on identifying stocks within cyclical industries that can achieve sustainable growth independent of industry cycles, particularly in sectors like basic chemicals, machinery, and electronics [7][10][12] - The cyclical growth fund pool has shown an annualized return of 17.44% from February 7, 2014, to February 6, 2026, outperforming the equity fund index by 7.31% [12][17] - The fund pool's performance is significantly influenced by market style shifts, with notable contributions from industry allocation, stock selection, and dynamic adjustments [17][22] Group 2 - The definition of cyclical growth funds is based on the attributes of the holding industries and stocks, requiring a minimum of 60% average growth stocks in the top holdings and at least 40% cyclical growth stocks [26] - The selection process for the cyclical growth fund pool emphasizes funds with strong trading capabilities and high management efficiency, resulting in a list of selected funds [27][28] - The report highlights a balanced industry allocation within the cyclical growth fund pool, with increased exposure to cyclical, pharmaceutical, and TMT sectors while reducing allocations to manufacturing and consumer sectors [22][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding 15% compared to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The launch of Seedance 2.0 by ByteDance marks a significant advancement in AI video generation, enabling users to create videos with simple text prompts, which is expected to enhance user engagement and frequency of use over the long term [3][5]. - The model's capabilities include multi-modal input acceptance, narrative coherence, and audio-visual synchronization, addressing key industry challenges such as character consistency and audio-visual mismatch [4][5]. - The demand for computational power is projected to increase exponentially due to the anticipated high concurrency from both consumer (C-end) content creation and business (B-end) API calls [6]. Summary by Sections Seedance 2.0 Launch and Features - Seedance 2.0 is integrated into various platforms, allowing users to generate short videos easily, which is expected to drive higher usage rates [3]. - The model supports multiple input types and can generate videos with synchronized audio, enhancing the creative process for users [4]. Computational Demand Projections - The report estimates that by October 2025, the monthly usage of AI-generated content on the platform will reach 63,900 times, with a total usage time of 1,668.2 hours [6]. - The complexity of video generation is significantly higher than that of text and images, leading to a substantial increase in computational requirements [6]. - Projections indicate that the number of required H100 GPUs for video generation could range from 2.4 million to 4.284 million under different scenarios, with a market space for H100 GPUs estimated between $4.8 billion and $8.568 billion [14][12]. Long-term Market Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for domestic computational power providers to benefit from the growth of AI video generation, with specific companies recommended for investment, including chip designers and AI server manufacturers [13]. - The user base for short videos in China is expected to exceed 1 billion by the end of 2024, with increasing daily usage times projected [7][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has completed internal adjustments and successfully executed an acquisition, positioning itself for a strong performance in 2026 [9] - The acquisition of a 55% stake in Sichuan Weizimei Foods aims to expand the company's product offerings in the compound seasoning sector, particularly in Sichuan-style products [9] - The company is expected to recover and grow its business in 2026, following a year of adjustments in 2025, with anticipated revenue growth driven by seasonal demand and improved management strategies [9] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenue for 2024 is 5,519 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.4%. For 2025, revenue is expected to decline to 4,546 million yuan, a decrease of 17.6%, before rebounding to 4,957 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth of 9.1% [2][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 893 million yuan in 2024, dropping to 567 million yuan in 2025 (-47.4%), and then increasing to 660 million yuan in 2026 (+16.4%) [2][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.15 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 0.73 yuan in 2025, and recovering to 0.85 yuan in 2026 [2][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16 in 2024, increasing to 26 in 2025, and then decreasing to 22 in 2026 and 19 in 2027 [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Viewpoints - The company has completed internal adjustments and successfully executed an acquisition, positioning itself for a strong performance in 2026 [9] - The acquisition of a 55% stake in Sichuan Weizimei Foods aims to expand the company's product offerings in the compound seasoning sector, enhancing its market presence [9] - The company is expected to recover from operational challenges in 2025, with a focus on improving management efficiency and product diversification [9] Financial Forecast and Key Metrics - Projected revenue for 2024 is 5,519 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.4%. For 2025, revenue is expected to decline to 4,546 million yuan, a decrease of 17.6%, followed by a recovery to 4,957 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth of 9.1% [2][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 893 million yuan in 2024, dropping to 567 million yuan in 2025 (-36.6%), and then increasing to 660 million yuan in 2026 (+16.4%) [2][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.15 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 0.73 yuan in 2025, and recovering to 0.85 yuan in 2026 [2][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16 in 2024, increasing to 26 in 2025, and then decreasing to 22 in 2026 [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the computer industry [6] Core Insights - The demand for Tokens is experiencing "inflation," which benefits cloud computing and gives model vendors pricing power [3][4] - The traditional internet model of free services is being disrupted as the industry shifts from free traffic to Tokens as a measurable unit of production [5][10] - The increase in Token consumption is driven by the evolution of user needs from simple Q&A to complex tasks requiring significant computational resources [8][10] Summary by Sections Token Demand Inflation - Token inflation refers to the structural increase in Token consumption per user over time, driven by more complex user interactions with models [8] - Users are increasingly utilizing models for tasks such as code reconstruction and document generation, leading to higher Token consumption [8][10] Changes in the Large Model Era - Tokens are becoming a measurable production resource rather than free traffic, with each interaction consuming computational resources [5][10] - The pricing strategy of model vendors is evolving, allowing them to convert computational scarcity into profit through tiered pricing and subscription models [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring the impact of price increases and Token demand on profit margins in the short term, while tracking subscription retention and expansion in the medium term [10][11] - Long-term prospects are positive for companies that can integrate AI into workflows, creating a demand for AI governance tools [11]

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the insurance sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [4]. Core Insights - The insurance fund utilization balance reached 38.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7% [6]. - Life insurance companies dominate the sector, with a fund utilization balance of 34.7 trillion yuan, up 15.7% year-on-year and 2.8% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The report highlights a shift in asset allocation, with life insurance companies increasing their allocation to fixed-income assets while decreasing their equity asset allocation [6]. Summary by Sections Insurance Fund Utilization - As of Q4 2025, the total insurance fund utilization balance is 38.5 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 34.7 trillion yuan and property insurance companies holding 2.4 trillion yuan [6]. - The proportion of life insurance companies' fund utilization balance is 90.1%, while property insurance companies account for 6.3% [6]. Asset Allocation Trends - Life insurance companies have increased their allocation to fixed-income assets (20.37 trillion yuan) by 3.4% and decreased their equity assets (7.98 trillion yuan) by 1.2% [6]. - The allocation ratios for life insurance companies are 58.8% for fixed-income assets and 23.0% for equity assets, showing a marginal increase in fixed-income assets and a slight decrease in equity assets [6]. - Property insurance companies have also increased their allocation to fixed-income assets (1.37 trillion yuan) by 1.9% while their equity assets (0.55 trillion yuan) increased by only 0.3% [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the resonance between assets and liabilities will support the continued recovery of insurance valuations in 2026 [6]. - It is expected that the sales of participating insurance products will support the growth of new premium income and net profit value (NBV) for life insurance [6]. - The report suggests that property insurance companies' efforts to optimize their business structure will lead to stable improvements in their combined ratio (COR) [6].

海外市场点评 假期海外市场的宏观悬念 glmszqdatemark 宏观数据的接连向好，可能会小幅弱化市场的降息预期，进而引发美元、美债收 益率短期反弹，对权益市场形成一定的不利扰动；但整体影响幅度预计有限：一 方面，市场已充分定价上半年美联储暂缓降息的预期，宏观数据也只是为利率"按 兵不动"提供进一步佐证；另一方面，数据层面的光鲜难以掩盖美国经济的脆弱 底色——就业市场年度下修近 90 万人，经济"K 型分化"态势日益严峻，复苏 基础并不牢固。 政策表态上，新任美联储主席候选人沃什的言论虽备受市场关注，但其政策立场 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 02 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn 随着春节假期的临近，海外市场又会孕育什么新的叙事 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Pengding Holdings (002938) with a target PE of 30x for 2025E and 24x for 2026E, while other companies like Shenghong Technology (300476) and Shengyi Technology (600183) do not have a specific rating [3]. Core Insights - North American cloud vendors are experiencing a significant increase in capital expenditures, driven by AI demand, with total capital expenditures projected to rise from approximately $160 billion to about $450 billion from 2023 to 2025, indicating a strong alignment between capital expenditure growth and AI computing demand [9][25]. - The NPO (Near-Photonics Optics) and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technologies are gaining traction in the industry, providing substantial growth opportunities for domestic optical communication companies [31][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of scalable optical modules in future cloud infrastructure, with NPO currently favored by domestic cloud vendors due to its advantages in interconnect density and cost [34][36]. Summary by Sections North American Cloud Vendors' Financial Performance - Microsoft reported Q4 FY26 revenue of $81.273 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16.72%, with a net profit of $38.458 billion, up 59.52% [12]. - Google achieved Q4 FY25 revenue of $113.828 billion, a 17.99% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $34.455 billion, up 29.84% [16]. - Amazon's Q4 FY25 revenue reached $213.386 billion, a 13.62% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $2.1192 billion, up 5.93% [20]. - Meta's Q4 FY25 revenue was $59.893 billion, a 23.78% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $22.768 billion, up 9.26% [21]. Capital Expenditure Outlook for 2026 - Google is expected to have a capital expenditure of $175-185 billion in 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 97% [25]. - Meta's capital expenditure is projected to be in the range of $115-135 billion for 2026, indicating a 77% increase year-over-year [27]. - Amazon's capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated at around $200 billion, a 50% increase from previous estimates [20]. NPO and CPO Technology Developments - NPO technology is gaining popularity among cloud vendors due to its high interconnect density and cost-effectiveness, making it suitable for distributed scale-up networks [34][36]. - CPO technology, which integrates optical engines and switching chips, is being actively promoted by NVIDIA and is expected to replace traditional pluggable optical modules in the future [37][42]. - The report highlights the significant development space for domestic optical communication companies driven by the advancements in NPO and CPO technologies [31][46].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 7.08 CNY per share [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the PVA industry, with a market share of over 40% domestically and 25% in exports. The company has extended its operations into five major industrial chains, enhancing its competitive advantage [6][13]. - The new materials segment is expected to see significant growth, with several projects set to launch, including a 200,000-ton ethylene-based PVA project, which is anticipated to further solidify the company's market position [6][9]. - The PVA industry is currently experiencing a price bottom, with a trend towards consolidation among leading firms, which may improve the supply-demand balance in the future [7][59]. Summary by Sections 1. PVA Industry Leadership and New Materials Performance - The company has built a robust PVA production capacity through strategic acquisitions and investments, maintaining a leading position in the domestic market [6][13]. - The new materials segment has shown a rising trend in revenue contribution, increasing from 20.53% in 2022 to 26.05% in 2024 [20]. - The company has a comprehensive product chain, ensuring high-quality raw material supply and enhancing overall competitiveness [15][18]. 2. PVA Pricing and Industry Concentration - The PVA industry is currently characterized by an oversupply, but the report suggests that high-cost overseas production may lead to a gradual improvement in the supply-demand dynamics [7][50]. - The report highlights that the PVA market is experiencing a price bottom, with the industry concentration increasing, favoring leading companies [59][60]. 3. Growth Potential in New Materials and Traditional Business Strength - The company is expanding its new materials capacity, with several projects expected to come online soon, which will likely drive revenue growth and improve business structure [6][9]. - The company is set to benefit from the increasing demand for high-end domestic substitutes in the PVA market, particularly in automotive and display applications [6][9]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The financial projections indicate a gradual recovery in revenue and net profit, with expected EPS of 0.23 CNY, 0.36 CNY, and 0.49 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong cash dividend policy, with a commitment to distribute at least 30% of the average distributable profits over the next three years [34].