Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD (1211 HK), XPENG Inc. (XPEV US), and Desay SV (002920 CH) [70][72][78]. Core Insights - The China auto market showed solid performance in March 2025, with wholesale shipments reaching 2.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and a month-on-month increase of 36% [1][9]. - The penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) rebounded to 50.4% in March 2025, indicating a strong recovery in the EV segment [1][9]. - The report highlights the limited direct impact of recent US-China tariffs on the auto sector, with only 116,000 vehicles exported to the US in 2024, representing 1.8% of total auto exports [2][43]. Market Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, the report notes a healthy year-on-year growth in both passenger vehicle (PV) and EV markets, with PV wholesales at 6.4 million units, up 12.9% year-on-year [10]. - Retail sales of EVs during the quarter reached 2.4 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36% [10]. - BYD's retail shipments in March 2025 were 290,200 units, with a market share of 29.3%, although it experienced a decline from the previous month due to a high base effect [12][17]. Supply Chain and Tariff Impact - The report suggests that the reciprocal tariffs should have limited direct impact on the auto supply chain, as both auto and parts are excluded from the new tariffs [3][46]. - The ongoing negotiations between China and the US regarding minimum pricing for China-made EVs could act as a positive catalyst for the auto market [4][40]. Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the need for OEMs to adapt to a competitive environment, with potential shifts in focus towards pricing strategies if demand remains weak [5][64]. - Key models to monitor include Xiaomi YU7, Seres AITO M8, and XPENG G7, which may influence the competition dynamics in the premium auto market [5][66]. Future Outlook - The report expresses a cautiously positive outlook for the China auto market, driven by rapid development in the EV sector and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [6]. - The upcoming Shanghai Auto Show in April 2025 is expected to provide further insights into market trends and consumer preferences [65].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The 1980s US-Japan trade friction had profound impacts on Japan's economy and industries, leading to a shift in manufacturing strategies, particularly in the automotive sector [3] - The US tariff policies significantly affect Asian manufacturing, especially Japan's automotive industry, which relies heavily on exports to the US [5][6] - Japanese automakers are adopting various strategies to cope with US tariffs, including price increases and relocating production bases, although these strategies come with challenges [6][7] - Non-tariff barriers from the US exacerbate trade tensions, impacting market access for foreign products [7] - The semiconductor industry has transitioned from a peak to a decline due to trade tensions and competitive pressures [4][14] Summary by Sections Impact of US Tariffs on Japanese Manufacturing - The US tariffs have led to increased costs for Japanese manufacturers, particularly in the automotive sector, where exports constitute over 35% of their business [5] - Japanese automakers like Toyota are less affected due to higher local production, while others like Nissan face greater challenges due to their export reliance [6] Strategies of Japanese Automakers - Japanese car manufacturers are considering price hikes or shifting production bases to mitigate tariff impacts, but both options present significant challenges [6][8] - Honda's analysis indicates that a 25% tariff on 550,000 vehicles could reduce profits by over 500 billion yen [6] Non-Tariff Barriers and Trade Friction - Non-tariff barriers, such as safety standards and market access discrepancies, further complicate trade relations and increase operational costs for Japanese firms [7] - The historical context of US-Japan trade friction includes various sectors, with the automotive and semiconductor industries being particularly affected [9][10] Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor sector has faced severe challenges due to trade tensions, with the US implementing measures to limit Japanese market access and promote local production [13][14] - The decline of Japan's semiconductor industry is attributed to strategic missteps and increased competition from US firms [14] Future Implications of Tariffs - The anticipated increase in US tariffs in 2025 is expected to significantly impact the technology sector, particularly electronics, which are heavily reliant on Asian manufacturing [16] - Companies like Apple are exploring various strategies to manage tariff pressures, including price adjustments and supply chain restructuring [17] Domestic Alternatives and Opportunities - The report identifies potential opportunities in domestic substitution for products previously sourced from the US, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing [20][23] - Companies like Texas Instruments are positioned to navigate tariff challenges due to their high domestic production rates [21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive industry or the specific companies involved. Core Insights - The integration between Honda and Nissan was expected to generate over 1 trillion yen in operating profit but faced significant challenges due to Nissan's operational crisis and deteriorating cash flow, requiring a consolidated operating profit of 600 billion yen by FY2026, which is three times the guidance for FY2024 [2][10] - Both companies are struggling against fierce competition from Tesla and BYD in the Chinese and American markets, with traditional fuel and hybrid vehicle market shares being eroded and a lack of competitive electric vehicle offerings [2][5] - Internal structural issues at Nissan have led to a lack of product strength and understanding of consumer demand, resulting in aging key models and difficulties in maintaining sales even with increased price subsidies [2][7] Summary by Sections Integration Challenges - The rapid breakdown of the integration decision announced in December 2024 was primarily due to differences in shareholding ratios, with Honda pushing for Nissan's operational reform and a subsidiary structure, while Nissan preferred an equal merger [3] - The integration faces multiple challenges, including electrification, intelligence, and cultural differences between the companies, making it difficult to surpass competitors like Tesla and BYD in the electric vehicle sector [14][15] Market Competition - Honda and Nissan are experiencing intense competition in the Chinese and American markets, with Tesla leveraging software innovations and BYD utilizing low-cost components and aggressive pricing strategies [5] - The inability of Japanese automakers to lead in electric vehicle adoption is attributed to high battery costs and insufficient charging infrastructure, which hinder vehicle pricing and sales [17] Strategic Directions - Honda and Nissan may pursue two strategic directions: continuing collaboration in key subfields while ensuring sufficient funding, or abandoning the partnership in favor of alliances with other companies like Mitsubishi or Hon Hai [6][11] - Honda plans to fully control the electric vehicle supply chain, having established a battery factory in Ohio and investing in a battery materials and vehicle production facility in Canada [4][18] - Nissan aims to establish 60GWh of battery capacity in North America by 2030, potentially collaborating with AESC, which has plans for 90GWh of battery capacity in the U.S. [19] Product and Business Structure - Honda's business structure is more diversified, covering various sectors, while Nissan has streamlined its operations by divesting non-core businesses [20] - Both companies lack competitive electric vehicle models, which remains a critical issue to address [20] Cost Reduction through Integration - The integration of factories could lead to the reduction of excess capacity and improved equipment utilization, thereby lowering fixed costs [21] Collaboration in Smart Vehicle Development - Honda and Nissan announced a collaboration focused on software-defined vehicles, including SOC chips and software platforms, to share development costs and enhance their competitive edge in the smart vehicle market [22]

Asia Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan The weekly China chart book: Fiscal situation remains challenging Last week, we highlighted the better-than-expected January-February activity data mask underlying serious challenges. Today, January-February fiscal data were released and point to a bleak picture. Amid weak domestic demand and heightened deflationary pressures, tax revenues contracted again. Expenditure was underwhelming, as the resumed sharp decline in property-related revenues ...

China: The PBoC may still be concerned about long-term CGB yields While U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed intentions to bring down US long- term Treasury yields, China's PBoC remains concerned about systemic risks from a one- sided decline in long-term CGB yields, despite their recent rebound. Compared with the Q4 MPC meeting, the PBoC's Q1 MPC meeting did not mention the trading of CGBs, reiterated the need to closely monitor long-term yields and added that it will observe and assess bond mar ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or companies mentioned Core Insights - The Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology is expected to be a significant trend in the optical communication sector, potentially disrupting the existing value chain within the next 2-3 years [14][40] - The global switch market has shown robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20.1% in 2023, surpassing USD 40 billion, driven by the scaling of large language model training and data centers [20][21] - CPO shipments are projected to start with small volumes and dominate the 3.2T segment by 2028-2029, with penetration rates in the AI Data Center switch market expected to reach 2% in 2025, 22% in 2027, and 32% in 2030 [2][27] Summary by Sections CPO Technology and Market Outlook - NVIDIA is set to launch its first generation of CPO switch, Quantum 3400 X800, at the GPU Technology Conference (GTC) 2025, with mass production expected to begin in July 2025 [15][45] - Broadcom has introduced the Tomahawk 5 Bailly, a 51.2T Ethernet switch CPO product, which integrates advanced optical engines and is designed to operate at significantly lower power consumption [3][47] - The report estimates that CPO switch penetration in the AI Data Center switch market could reach 2% in 2025, 22% in 2027, and 32% in 2030, indicating a growing acceptance of this technology [27][28] Key Players and Developments - Major players in the CPO market include NVIDIA, Broadcom, and TSMC, with each company making significant advancements in CPO technology [3][41] - Chinese companies such as Suzhou TFC and Accelink are also positioned to benefit from the CPO trend, focusing on optical component manufacturing [4][56] - The report highlights that the integration of optical and electronic components through CPO technology can lead to reduced costs and power consumption, enhancing overall system performance [36][38] AI Applications and Market Dynamics - OpenAI's ChatGPT continues to lead in global AI applications, with a daily active user count fluctuating between 60-63 million, while DeepSeek has emerged as a leading app in China's generative AI market with a DAU of 49 million [5][62] - The competitive landscape in AI applications is evolving, with new models like OpenAI's GPT-4.5 and Alibaba's QwQ-32B being introduced, showcasing advancements in performance and efficiency [10][79] - The report notes that the global AI market is experiencing sustained growth, particularly in China, driven by increasing user engagement and the introduction of innovative AI solutions [60][67]

野村东方国际 必选悦悦谈第十五期：细说全球烟草（菲莫&英美）20250315 摘要 全球新型烟草行业经历了多次技术迭代和变革。上世纪六七十年代，美国人最 早发明了对液态尼古丁加热产生蒸汽的无烟和非烟草香烟，为电子烟技术奠定 基础。2004 年，唐韩立取得了电子烟发明专利并实现商业化。1998 年，菲莫 国际推出电加热型产品，电加热技术逐渐成为主流，并推出超级大单品 IQOS。2016 年后，日本烟草、英美烟草等公司陆续推出同类型的大单品，加 热不燃烧产品市场蓬勃发展。 根据第三方研究数据，全球烟草市场结构正在发 生显著变化。传统烟草的增长趋于稳定，而新型烟草则处于快速增长状态。例 如，以菲莫国际为代表的无烟产品收入增速在双位数以上，某些超级大单品的 增速高达 40%到 50%。相比之下，传统品牌如万宝路的增长仅为极低个位数。 区域市场方面，北美市场增速领先，在过去 15 年间呈爆发式增长，但因政策 要求，如薄荷味电子烟规模下降。而亚洲市场尤其是日本市场增速迅猛，一定 程度上弥补了北美调味电子烟下滑带来的缺口。在政策方面，中国对电子烟监 管较为严格，加强未成年人保护，并规范广告和促销。 消费群体方面，无烟产 品 ...

野村东方国际：日本低利率下消费品股价估值复盘 20250313 摘要 • 90 年代初日本股市泡沫破裂后，虽大盘趋势性下挫，但财政刺激（92-93 年）、经济复苏（95-96 年）和互联网行情（98-00 年）期间出现三次显著 估值抬升，抓住这些反弹可获得超额收益，PE 估值曾分别升至 128 倍和 159 倍。 • 90-98 年日本利率持续下降，分为四个阶段。初期（90-91 年）大盘和消费 子行业均大幅下挫；经济放缓期（92-93 年）各子行业分化，食品饮料相 对稳定；经济弱复苏期（94-95 年）实施宽松货币政策；金融危机风险期 （96-98 年）市场处于极低利率状态。 • 94-95 年日本经济复苏期，各子板块均有所改善，批发零售利润大幅上涨， 估值显著提升。其中，零售业收入上涨 3%，利润上涨 180%，各项估值指标 接近双位数或高个位数增长，可选消费股的市场表现和估值均出现了积极 变化。 • 96-2000 年金融风险期，日本国内金融机构破产，财政紧张和消费税上调 导致私人消费增速明显下行。大盘及多数消费板块均有双位数下跌，仅电 气设备板块实现正增长。利率从 95 年的 0.5%降至 98 年底 ...

野村东方国际 知己知彼，论赶超韩国家电双雄关键 20250313 摘要 Q&A 韩国企业三星和 LG 在家电业务的现状和未来发展战略如何？ 三星和 LG 是中国企业在国际市场上的主要竞争对手。三星的家电业务在其集团 收入中占比约为 20%，相较于半导体和手机业务的重要性较低。具体来看，三 星的白电（如冰箱、洗衣机）和黑电（如电视）的收入占比约为 55%和 45%。其 中，黑电的盈利能力优于白电，高端产品占比超过 50%。然而，三星在空调业 • 三星家电业务受益于欧美市场消费者补贴，但受供应链和地缘政治影响， 盈利能力在 2021 年后下降，2023 年开始回暖。未来战略重点是 AI 技术应 用，如 AFW 战略和 SmartThings 平台，该平台已突破 10 亿次下载。 • LG 电子家电业务收入占比高于三星，且盈利能力更强。2024 年家电收入约 为 2000 亿人民币，虽略低于三星的 2,400 亿，但领先于美的和海信。LG 白电依赖高端化策略，盈利能力优于黑电。 • LG 未来战略侧重平台型转型，通过家电租赁业务和 webOS 系统内嵌广告及 内容服务增加收入。家电租赁模式已在韩国本土市场取得 30 ...

野村东方国际 以史为鉴：思科启示录下的英伟达坐标审视 20250312 摘要 Q&A 当前 AI 基建的资本开支情况如何？市场对其未来发展有何担忧？ 目前，AI 基建的资本开支已经持续接近两年。自今年年初以来，市场开始担忧 是否存在泡沫风险，有些人将当前的 AI 投资周期与 2021 年初的互联网泡沫进 行对比。我们研究的初衷是分析思科在互联网泡沫时期从下游暴雷到业绩受到 • 思科在互联网泡沫时期通过并购迅速扩张，成为网络设备市场领导者，但 下游互联网公司业绩暴雷导致需求萎缩，最终波及思科自身业绩，股价大 幅下跌，股价高点早于业绩高点约三个季度，是需求放缓的先行指标。 • 英伟达当前面临 ASIC 解决方案兴起和 DeepSeek 大模型训练样本方案带来 的潜在竞争压力，但其在 GPU 加速计算性能和 CUDA 生态方面仍具有显著优 势，预计中短期内仍将主导 AI 算力基础设施建设。 • 本轮 AI 投资周期由大型科技公司主导，这些公司财务状况稳健，能够支撑 长期资本支出投入，与互联网泡沫时期未盈利科技公司依赖融资不同，英 伟达拥有更高稳定性的客户群体。 • 英伟达 GPU 使用寿命较短，云厂商有动力不断进行 ...