Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the stock market, highlighting insufficient hedging against downside risks as reflected by the VIX index [6][20][25]. Core Insights - The VIX index is experiencing insufficient downside risk hedging, with the stock market breaking through key technical support levels, leading to increased volatility and uncertainty [6][20][25]. - Recent labor data shows a decrease in employment numbers by approximately 9,000 in October, with layoffs reaching a 20-year high of about 150,000, contributing to market unease [1]. - The bond market is attempting to play a risk-hedging role, with U.S. Treasury prices rising amid heightened risk aversion [1][3]. Summary by Sections - **Market Sentiment**: The stock market is facing significant downward pressure, with high-profile tech stocks experiencing substantial declines, such as Microsoft down 10.2% and Nvidia down 11.6% [8][9]. - **Volatility and Risk Management**: There is a notable shift in systemic capital flows towards volatility control, with an estimated $117.8 billion in U.S. stock exposure being shed due to rising volatility and mechanical rebalancing since October 10 [13][14]. - **Future Outlook**: If the market can maintain a volatility range of ±1% daily, a significant reallocation of capital is expected, as extreme volatility values from the past month will be excluded from the sample [15].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The 15th five-year plan (FYP) is expected to prioritize resilience, security, and inclusivity over specific growth targets, with a potential growth target of around 4.5% for 2026, gradually shifting to around 4% by 2030 [4][60] - The report highlights the significance of the 15th FYP due to China's growing global importance and the challenges arising from the property market collapse since 2021 [3][4] - The anticipated "second China shock" refers to a surge in high-tech and high-value Chinese exports, which may disrupt global industries more severely than the first China shock [9][25] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the 15th FYP - The 15th FYP will be discussed at the CPC's annual conference in October 2025, with the final draft to be approved in March 2026 [1] - The plan is expected to address the fallout from the property market collapse and focus on inclusive growth to maintain social stability [3][4] 2. Achievements and Setbacks of the 14th FYP - Average real GDP growth during the 14th FYP (2021-25) was around 5.4%, with significant advancements in technology and manufacturing [8][10] - The property market collapse has led to a significant decline in new home sales and has negatively impacted household wealth and fiscal revenues [44][45] 3. Key Themes for the 15th FYP - The report assigns a low likelihood to Beijing setting a specific growth target, instead emphasizing resilience and inclusivity [4][60] - Major themes include advancing tech self-sufficiency, addressing the property market crisis, and reforming the social welfare system to reduce inequality [4][60][69] 4. Geopolitical and Domestic Challenges - Geopolitical tensions are identified as a primary challenge, with the US-China relationship expected to remain tense [32][34] - The domestic property market remains a significant challenge, with ongoing efforts needed to clean up the sector and address the resulting economic impacts [50][51] 5. Demographic and Inequality Issues - China's aging population and rising inequality are highlighted as critical issues that could hinder economic growth [51][55] - The report suggests that reforms to the pension system are essential for promoting inclusive growth and reducing inequality [69][71]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Jentech with a Buy rating and sets a target price of TWD3,186. It also reiterates Buy ratings for AVC and Auras with target prices of TWD1,700 and TWD1,160 respectively [15][16][44]. Core Insights - The rapid development of AI performance upgrades is expected to revolutionize the liquid cooling industry, particularly with the introduction of microchannel lid (MCL) technology and potential new thermal interface materials (TIM) from late 2026 to 2028 [3][6]. - The thermal design power (TDP) of mainstream AI chips is projected to increase to approximately 2,000W by mid-2026, with expectations that chips will exceed 3,000W by 2027 [6][19]. - MCL is anticipated to be the most practical solution for cooling chips with TDPs over 3,000W, as it integrates a heat spreader with a cold plate to minimize thermal resistance [7][27]. - Current thermal component makers are expected to experience significant growth opportunities in the next two to three years, driven by the increasing adoption of liquid cooling solutions across various AI systems [14][39]. Summary by Sections Liquid Cooling Technology - Liquid cooling technology is evolving rapidly, with strong total addressable market (TAM) growth expected to benefit both existing and new players [6][19]. - The transition from air cooling to liquid cooling is becoming mainstream, particularly for AI GPUs, with full liquid cooling solutions anticipated to dominate by 2025 [6][19]. Microchannel Lid (MCL) Technology - MCL is viewed as a critical advancement for next-gen AI server architecture, offering compatibility with existing single-phase liquid cooling systems and a lower Z-height for higher-density designs [7][27]. - The adoption of MCL may face challenges, including design and manufacturing complexities, but its potential for earlier adoption compared to two-phase cooling solutions is noted [8][28]. Thermal Interface Materials (TIM) - The report discusses the potential shift to indium metal TIMs for high-performance chips, particularly as TDP levels rise and current graphite film TIMs face limitations [10][38]. - Optimized lids with highly thermal-conductive TIMs are expected to remain favored solutions for upcoming AI chips, with ongoing research into new materials like silicon carbide (SiC) [9][37]. Company Coverage - Jentech is positioned as a leading beneficiary of MCL technology due to its strong relationships with foundries and experience in heat spreader manufacturing [16][42]. - AVC and Auras are also highlighted for their potential growth as liquid cooling solutions become more prevalent in AI systems, with both companies maintaining Buy ratings [15][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, with target prices raised to KRW123,000 and KRW540,000 respectively [34][5]. Core Insights - The memory market is expected to enter an unprecedented super-cycle, driven by significant investments from US Big Tech in AI and traditional servers, leading to a substantial increase in memory demand by 2026 [1][4]. - Demand for traditional server-related memory, such as DDR4 and DDR5, is projected to grow by around 50% in 2026, while enterprise SSD demand is expected to nearly double [2]. - Operating profit margins for commodity DRAM are anticipated to recover to levels approaching 70% by 2026, while NAND margins are expected to reach 30-40% [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The memory market is poised for a super-cycle, with substantial investments continuing into 2027 and 2028, followed by a likely downturn in 2028 [4]. - US Big Tech's capital expenditures are projected to increase significantly, with a 30% year-on-year growth expected in 2026 [13]. Demand Projections - Traditional server investments declined by 30% year-on-year in 2023 but are expected to grow by 20-30% in 2026 [2]. - Demand for enterprise SSDs, which account for approximately 40% of total NAND demand, is projected to grow by over 100% in 2026 due to strong storage needs from both traditional and AI data centers [2]. Profitability Forecasts - Samsung's operating profit is projected to reach KRW90 trillion in 2026 and KRW130 trillion in 2027, with a significant increase in target price reflecting this growth [5]. - SK Hynix is expected to achieve operating profit of KRW72 trillion in 2026 and KRW88 trillion in 2027, with a 50% increase in target price [5]. Competitive Landscape - Samsung is expected to have the highest relative capacity flexibility among memory manufacturers, with significant production scaling capabilities at its Pyeongtaek fabs [4]. - The entry of Samsung into Nvidia's HBM market is considered highly probable, which could enhance its competitive position [30].

Investment Rating - The report suggests continuing investment in the "AI-driven frenzy" while emphasizing the importance of maintaining hedges against potential market downturns [1][5][11]. Core Insights - The current market environment is characterized by a positive feedback loop driven by artificial intelligence, with employment data expected to remain strong, which may shift market sentiment from concerns about Federal Reserve rate cuts to fears of a recession [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in corporate profitability, particularly among large tech stocks benefiting from the "AI Halo," which is driving capital expenditure and stock buybacks [4][5]. - The financial environment is described as loose, with a weak dollar, low corporate credit spreads, and a significant amount of cash in the hands of high-end consumers, contributing to robust consumer spending [4][5]. Summary by Sections - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance towards labor growth rather than inflation, allowing for a more accommodative monetary policy [4]. - **Corporate Performance**: There is a notable resilience in corporate earnings, with large tech companies leading the charge, supported by strong cash flows that fuel capital spending and stock buybacks [4][5]. - **Volatility and Hedging**: The report warns of potential volatility spikes and emphasizes the need for hedging strategies as the market experiences upward pressure on stock indices and options [10][15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the toy industry Core Insights - The Japanese toy market has experienced stagnant growth over the past 30 years, with a shift in consumer preferences leading to a decline in traditional children's toys and a rise in emerging categories like card games and hobbies [1][3] - The market for assembly toys has shown volatility, with significant growth driven by blockbuster products in the late 1980s, followed by a decline, but a long-term upward trend as the player demographic expanded from children to adults [1][4] - The integration of intellectual property (IP) into the toy industry began in the 1970s, fostering collaboration between content creators and manufacturers, which has been crucial for the development of derivative markets [1][6] - The adultization trend in the toy industry became prominent after the 1990s, leading to increased demand for collectible items and the emergence of niche categories [1][8] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The Japanese toy industry has seen a significant shift in market share over the past two decades, with new categories like children's card games and hobbies gaining prominence while traditional toys have declined [5] - The assembly toy market has experienced notable volatility, with peaks in the late 1980s followed by declines, but a long-term trend of growth as the audience has expanded to include adults [4][10] Company Strategies - Major companies like Bandai and Takara Tomy have adopted platform strategies to monetize IP through acquisitions, diversifying their revenue streams and enhancing their ability to withstand market risks [2][15] - Bandai has successfully integrated various business models, targeting different age groups with a diverse range of products, thereby mitigating risks associated with market fluctuations [16] IP Development - The report highlights the importance of IP in the toy industry, with successful examples like "One Piece" demonstrating how a single IP can evolve and generate revenue across multiple platforms [14][13] - The assembly model market features key IPs such as Gundam, which has shown consistent growth, while others like Mini 4WD have experienced fluctuating popularity [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market, driven by improved liquidity and structural opportunities, particularly in the consumption and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][15][22] Core Insights - The A-share market's recent surge is primarily attributed to liquidity improvements rather than fundamental earnings growth, with the net profit expectation for the market raised to 4.9 trillion yuan, corresponding to an 8% growth rate, which does not align with the 36% increase in the CSI 300 index [1][2][17] - The report highlights the significant role of insurance funds and passive funds in driving market activity, with insurance capital inflows reaching 620 billion yuan in the first half of the year, matching last year's total [6][10] - Structural opportunities are emphasized, particularly in the areas of aesthetic consumption and high-end manufacturing exports, suggesting that investors should focus on sectors with clear growth potential [15][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market has seen a substantial increase in daily trading volume, exceeding 20 trillion yuan since mid-August, indicating heightened activity from domestic quantitative traders and individual investors [2][4] - Financing balances have increased by over 300 billion yuan since March, with the financing buy ratio recovering to over 11%, reflecting a healthy state of leverage in the market [5][11] Fund Flows - Passive funds have accelerated their entry into the market, with the total scale of A-share ETFs surpassing 5 trillion yuan, and stock-based products now accounting for 70% of total net value [10][11] - The report notes that the current allocation of insurance funds to stocks is 13.1%, below the historical peak of 14.8%, indicating potential for further increases in stock allocations [6][8] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities in the consumption sector, particularly in areas like inbound tourism and innovative consumer products, as well as in high-end manufacturing sectors such as electronics and automotive [15][16][22] - The report suggests that while liquidity is favorable, attention should also be paid to the recovery of fundamentals, with a recommendation to avoid sectors that rely solely on liquidity without solid fundamentals [3][14][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating on the Asia AI semi and server supply chain, with all top picks rated as Buy [3][7][25]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on AI semiconductors and servers, despite a worsened risk-reward scenario compared to April 2025. The demand, supply, and catalysts are expected to favor AI growth into 2026 [3][7][30]. - Hyperscalers are increasingly optimistic about AI, with rising capital expenditure (capex) plans projected to grow by 55% year-on-year in 2025-26 [7][10][30]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity expansion appears more disciplined than in the past, which may impact customer behaviors and the GPU/ASIC supply chain dynamics [6][30][39]. Summary by Sections AI Semi Forecast - The AI semi revenue forecast for 2026 has been raised to 55% year-on-year growth, up from approximately 30% previously, with an introduction of a 20% growth forecast for 2027 [8][39]. - nVidia is expected to maintain a 60% CoWoS capacity booking at TSMC in 2026, which may hinder ASIC growth [8][41]. Server Forecast - The forecast for nVidia's GB rack shipments has been raised from 20.1k units to 22.2k units for 2025, with an introduction of a 46k unit estimate for 2026 [9][30]. - Global server revenue growth is projected at 53% and 28% year-on-year for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with AI server revenue growth rates at 76% and 40% [9][10]. Cloud Capex Uplift - The consensus for the top five US CSPs' capex growth has been revised up from 20% to 55% year-on-year, aligning with the expected growth in nVidia's datacenter sales [10][13]. - Policies such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) are expected to incentivize CSPs to invest more in capex [10][13][30]. Stocks for Action - Key stocks recommended for action include TSMC, Hon Hai, Quanta, Wiwynn, and others, all rated as Buy, with significant upside potential noted [25][20][29]. - The report highlights that AI ODMs are attractive in valuations, with specific recommendations for Wiwynn, Wistron, and Quanta based on their expected performance in the upcoming quarters [20][29]. Structural Growth Trends - The report identifies structural growth trends in PCB/CCL, power, cable, and thermal solutions, with significant upgrades expected in components and architecture from 2H26 to 2027 [21][23][27].

野村东方国际 资产重估策略适合牛市吗？20250809 摘要 市场估值重心正从净利润转向资产重估，因低利率环境使企业永续净利 润增长更难，高成长行业商业模式受阻。 企业为优化 ROE，从规模扩张转向提升经营效率，龙头企业通过缩减现 金循环周期和账期管理来改善净利润和净资产周转效率。 过去三年沪深 300 指数资本总额持续攀升，推动技术研发突破，维持并 强化国际竞争力，为资产重估提供支撑。 资产重估定价方法为 ROE 乘以分红留存率，适用于经济稳定增长期，关 注留存收益对净资产的推动，估值从 PE 转向 PB。 金融股超额收益源于高于市场均值的资产创造增速和资金催化，大市值 公司资产重估增速显著高于中小公司，配置价值更高。 沪深 300 指数通过提高现金周转能力显著改善资产重估增速，主要得益 于龙头企业现金周转能力大幅增加。 中国企业研发投入未受泡沫破裂影响，具备强大的资本投入能力和出海 机遇，通过明星企业拉动供应链实现全球化扩张。 Q&A 过去两年时间里提出的资产重估策略在当前市场环境中的有效性如何？ 资产重估策略在当前市场环境中依然有效。尤其是在去年（2024 年）到今年 （2025 年），资产重估增速对于 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the specialty glass fiber industry, particularly driven by the increasing demand from AI servers and the upgrade of CCL materials [1]. Core Insights - The demand for AI servers is driving a significant upgrade in CCL materials from traditional levels to higher grades such as Grade 7 and Grade 8, with ongoing efforts to develop Grade 9 materials [1][4]. - Nitto Denko is a leader in the low dielectric constant specialty glass fiber sector, utilizing advanced materials like N1 glass and Ner glass to achieve lower dielectric constants [1][5]. - The cost structure of CCL materials shows that glass fabric accounts for approximately 30% of the total cost, highlighting the importance of enhancing the performance of all components in response to AI-related demand [1][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The specialty glass fiber market is experiencing intense competition, with leading companies like Nitto Denko showing strong performance amid rising AI demand [2][14]. - The market for specialty glass fiber has seen a revenue increase of 6.5 times from 2015 to 2024, reflecting the growing need for high-performance electronic materials [15]. Key Companies - Nitto Denko's electronic materials division is projected to contribute about 40% of the company's revenue and 85% of its operating profit in 2024 [1][9]. - Other notable companies in the CCL supply chain include Taiwanese, Korean, and Japanese firms, with a focus on collaboration with PCB manufacturers to penetrate the overseas AI market [3]. Product Development - Nitto Denko plans to introduce its third-generation specialty glass fiber for high-end applications such as 6G and AI servers by 2026, with further product iterations expected by 2030 [16]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of T-glass and low DK materials, which are crucial for high-speed applications and AI servers [22][21]. Market Dynamics - The supply of T-glass materials is currently tight, with production and expansion plans underway to meet future demand [21]. - The report notes that low DK materials are primarily used in high-speed switches and AI servers, with stable production expected to meet customer orders in the near term [22]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for specialty glass fiber is characterized by a mix of established Japanese firms and emerging players from Taiwan and mainland China, all vying for market share in the growing AI sector [2][3][24].