Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive growth trend for the domestic whiskey industry in China, highlighting the competitive advantages of leading domestic brands [2][7]. Core Insights - The Chinese whiskey market is experiencing a shift with a decline in imported whiskey volumes while domestic production is significantly increasing, with a total production growth of 127% in 2023 [2][7]. - The price segmentation in the whiskey market is expanding, with a growing demand for high cost-performance products, and the sales proportion in the 0-500 RMB and 500-1,000 RMB price ranges is increasing [10][11]. - The experience of Japanese whiskey development offers valuable lessons for China, particularly in standardization, differentiation, and innovative consumption scenarios [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The Chinese whiskey market is currently in a growth phase, with domestic brands showing stronger growth compared to imported ones [2]. - The retail share of whiskey in the international liquor market remains stable at around 16%, with a compound annual growth rate of 9% from 2016 to 2023 [6]. Production and Capacity - Domestic whiskey production capacity is rapidly expanding, with a design capacity increase of 33% and an actual capacity increase of 50% in 2023 [8][12]. - The total production in 2023 reached 50 million liters, marking a significant increase compared to previous years [7]. Pricing Dynamics - The average price of imported whiskey in China peaked at 128 RMB per liter in 2023 but has since begun to decline, creating opportunities for domestic brands to fill the pricing gap [5][8]. - The sales proportion of high-end whiskey (over 1,500 RMB) has decreased from 28% in 2022 to 20% in 2024, indicating a shift towards more affordable options [10]. Consumer Behavior - The consumption scenarios for whiskey are diversifying, moving from private tastings to more casual settings, particularly among younger consumers and women, who now represent about 40% of the market [11][12]. - The demand for smaller packaging options is increasing, with products priced at 29.9 RMB for 100 ml gaining popularity [17]. Competitive Landscape - Leading domestic brands like Baijiu and Gamma Blue are establishing a significant market presence, while numerous smaller brands are also finding success through niche marketing strategies [14][15]. - Baijiu has demonstrated strong performance in the whiskey sector, with plans to double production capacity within the next 4 to 5 years [15][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key suppliers including Hon Hai, Luxshare, Largan, AAC, and Cowell, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the context of Apple's production strategy and potential tariff impacts [16][18][19][20][21][22]. Core Insights - iPhone production for 2025 is expected to be 227 million units, a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year, with adjustments made for promotional activities in China and increased production of older models [1][2]. - The iPhone 17 series is projected to have a total production of 90 million units in the second half of 2025, with specific model breakdowns indicating a stable demand compared to previous series [3][4]. - Apple is strategically positioning its production in India and Vietnam to mitigate tariff risks, although uncertainties remain regarding tariff negotiations in India [7][9][10]. Summary by Sections iPhone Production Outlook - iPhone shipments in 4Q24-1H25 were stronger than expected due to early pull-ins related to tariff concerns and price cuts in China [1]. - Production assumptions for 3Q25 are set at 57.5 million units, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase, while 4Q25 is projected at 76 million units, a 7% decrease year-on-year [2]. iPhone 17 Series Details - The iPhone 17 series production is estimated at 90 million units, with model-specific forecasts indicating a slight increase in the i17 Air model compared to its predecessor [3][4]. - The EMS split for the i17 series shows Hon Hai and Luxshare involved in four models, with a production ratio of approximately 6:4 [4]. Tariff and Pricing Strategy - Apple has chosen India as a secondary production hub for iPhones and Vietnam for other products, with potential tariffs from the US impacting pricing strategies [7][9][10]. - Price adjustments for iPhone models may occur post-tariff implementation, but global price increases are expected to be moderate to alleviate impacts on the US market [10]. Component and Technology Developments - The report highlights advancements in Apple's in-house ICs and new architectures for the iPhone 17 and 18 series, including higher computing power and improved camera technologies [6][11]. - TSMC's N2 process adoption is expected to significantly impact the supply chain, with projections indicating a demand of at least 180kwpa for N2 in 2026 [11][12]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies strong investment opportunities in companies like Hon Hai, Luxshare, Largan, AAC, and Cowell, citing their favorable positions in the supply chain and potential for earnings growth [16][18][19][20][21][22].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a more sanguine outlook on growth and US-China trade tensions, suggesting a positive investment sentiment towards the Chinese economy [2][4]. Core Insights - The Politburo has shown increased confidence in China's near-term growth outlook, citing strong performance in major economic indicators [2][3]. - There is a focus on addressing overcapacity and promoting orderly competition among enterprises, with a commitment to optimize market order [3][4]. - The report highlights a shift towards detailed policy implementation, emphasizing proactive fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary policy [4][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Politburo's recent meeting reflects a more optimistic view on economic growth, with expectations of continued resilience despite external shocks [2][3]. - The potential extension of the US-China tariff truce indicates a reduction in trade tensions, which may positively impact economic stability [2][3]. Policy Measures - The report notes that the Politburo has committed to implementing existing policies more effectively rather than introducing new measures, signaling a focus on execution [4][6]. - There is a lack of urgency for additional stimulus measures, particularly in the consumer trade-in program, suggesting a cautious approach to fiscal expansion [7]. Local Government Debt - The report emphasizes the need for risk resolution regarding local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt, with a strict prohibition on new hidden debt [7]. - The RMB10 trillion debt swap program is viewed as insufficient to address the total local government debt of approximately RMB60 trillion [7]. Property and Capital Markets - The Politburo's meeting indicated less urgency for large supportive measures in the property market, focusing instead on urban renovation programs [7]. - The report suggests that the stock market will see reinforced frameworks rather than direct property support measures [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the solid-state battery industry, indicating that leading Chinese companies like CATL are expected to continue their dominance in the new technology cycle [1][2]. Core Insights - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to follow the supply chain and cost control patterns established by liquid lithium batteries, with Chinese enterprises likely to replicate their advantages [1][2]. - The initial application scenarios for solid-state batteries will be limited to high-end sectors that prioritize safety and endurance, such as premium new energy vehicles, low-altitude economy, and ocean-going vessels [1][6]. - The Chinese government plans to implement a major special policy for solid-state batteries starting in 2024, with an initial investment of 600 million yuan aimed at supporting core enterprises [1][16]. - The penetration rate of solid-state batteries is expected to remain low, around 10%, with liquid batteries continuing to dominate the market [1][18]. Summary by Sections Solid-State Battery Development - Solid-state battery technology is seen as a significant trend in the lithium battery industry, with Chinese companies expected to maintain a clear advantage over the next five years [2]. - Toyota is shifting from polymer technology to sulfide technology, which, despite its potential, faces challenges in production processes and costs [1][10]. Material Development - Solid electrolyte materials are currently converging towards specific technological routes, with optimism surrounding sulfide routes in the market [3]. - High-nickel materials in ternary cathodes are expected to see increased adoption in solid-state applications, with leading Chinese companies gaining recognition from overseas clients [3][24]. Equipment and Investment Logic - The equipment segment is crucial for the solid-state battery industry, with significant investment required for production lines, estimated at 500 million yuan per GWh for solid-state compared to 150-200 million yuan for liquid lithium batteries [5][28]. - Companies with complete line delivery capabilities are highlighted as key players in the equipment sector [30]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that solid-state batteries will primarily be used in high-cost tolerance scenarios, while traditional lithium-ion technologies will remain prevalent in entry-level new energy vehicles [6][18]. - The competitive landscape in the lithium battery anode market is dominated by Chinese companies, which are expected to maintain their leading position [27]. Future Projections - By 2030, the market for solid-state batteries in China is projected to reach 200 GWh, supported by continuous government policies [15]. - The report anticipates that the sulfide solid-state technology could dominate the market by 2035, with significant reductions in costs expected over the next decade [12][22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific stocks within it Core Insights - The report discusses the moderation of inflows into US offshore-listed equity ETFs, with net outflows of approximately USD 4.7 billion over the past 20 weeks, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards Europe and emerging markets (EMs) [1][3][5] - Europe-focused offshore ETFs have seen positive net inflows in 21 out of the past 24 weeks, totaling around USD 15 billion, suggesting a growing interest in European equities [3][7] - Emerging market ETFs have recorded positive flows in 19 out of the past 23 weeks, amounting to USD 13.6 billion, coinciding with the decline in US equity ETF inflows [3][9] - Interest in EM-ex China funds has declined recently, with net outflows of USD 2.9 billion over the past 18 weeks, contrasting with the significant inflows of USD 16.8 billion from October 2022 to October 2024 [3][11] - Japan offshore-listed ETFs have seen modest net buying, but foreign investors may be favoring direct stock investments in Japan, as evidenced by 13 consecutive weeks of net inflows into the Japanese cash equity market [3][14] - India offshore-listed ETFs have experienced a resurgence in net inflows of approximately USD 1.8 billion since late March 2025, following a period of net selling [3][18] - Taiwan onshore ETFs have seen significant net inflows of around USD 43 billion since the start of 2024, providing strong support for Taiwanese equities [3][22] - Korea offshore ETFs have attracted USD 1.4 billion in net inflows over the past 6 weeks, driven by renewed interest in AI and expectations of corporate governance reforms [3][25] Summary by Sections US Offshore-Listed ETFs - 11 out of the past 20 weeks have seen net-negative fund flows, totaling outflows of approximately USD 4.7 billion [3][5] - Significant net inflows of around USD 160 billion were recorded between June 2023 and February 2025 [3][5] Europe Offshore-Listed ETFs - Positive net inflows in 21 out of the past 24 weeks, totaling approximately USD 15 billion [3][7] Emerging Markets (EM) ETFs - Positive flows in 19 out of the past 23 weeks, totaling USD 13.6 billion [3][9] - Recent decline in interest for EM-ex China funds, with net outflows of USD 2.9 billion [3][11] Japan Offshore-Listed ETFs - Modest net buying observed, with a preference for direct stock investments indicated by foreign net inflows into the Japanese market [3][14] India Offshore-Listed ETFs - Net inflows of approximately USD 1.8 billion since late March 2025, following previous net selling [3][18] Taiwan ETFs - Significant net inflows of around USD 43 billion since the start of 2024 for onshore ETFs [3][22] Korea Offshore-Listed ETFs - Attracted USD 1.4 billion in net inflows over the past 6 weeks, driven by specific factors [3][25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The Japanese stock market is currently facing potential impacts from new tariffs, with a 25% tariff on Japanese goods set to take effect on August 1, 2025, which may lead to downward revisions in company guidance and affect share prices [1][2] - The earnings reporting season for Q1 FY25 is beginning, with expectations of a 21% year-on-year decline in recurring profits, followed by a flat Q2 and a further 14% decline in Q3 [5][11] - There is a notable correlation between changes in foreign ownership ratios and share price performance, with foreign ownership at 32.4% at the end of FY24, the highest since records began [15][16] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Market Reactions - The report highlights that share prices in sectors sensitive to tariffs, such as transportation equipment and pharmaceuticals, have suffered, while semiconductor stocks have gained [2] - Companies like Yaskawa Electric have faced significant share price declines after failing to adjust guidance in light of tariff impacts, indicating that investors should be cautious of similar occurrences in upcoming results announcements [2][12] Earnings Forecasts and Market Sentiment - Consensus forecasts for Q1 FY25 indicate a sharp decline in profits, with expectations for Q2 remaining unusually optimistic despite the anticipated downturn [5][11] - The report notes that share prices tend to react negatively to downward revisions in company guidance, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in the risks associated with potential tariff impacts [12][13] Foreign Ownership and Investment Indicators - The report discusses the changes in foreign ownership ratios, which have increased for certain sectors while decreasing for others, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [15][16] - Key indicators for investment opportunities include high return on equity (ROE), cash reserves, share buyback history, and low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, with many companies currently meeting these criteria [17][24]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to BYD (1211 HK), Desay SV (002920 CH), and Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) [54][60][65]. Core Insights - The China auto market has shown another double-digit year-on-year growth, with wholesale unit deliveries reaching 2.5 million units in June, marking a 14.5% increase year-on-year and a 7.8% increase month-on-month [1][7]. - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing suboptimal growth, with EV penetration at 52.7% in June, which is below expectations and historical highs [1][7]. - Concerns are raised regarding the slowing growth of EV penetration, potentially due to aggressive pricing strategies from internal combustion engine (ICE) car manufacturers and the upcoming 50% cut to EV purchase tax exemptions starting next year [2][7]. Summary by Sections China Auto Market Performance - In 1H25, the China auto market reported a total of 13.5 million wholesale shipments, reflecting a 12.9% year-on-year growth, while retail sales (excluding minivans) reached 10.9 million units, up 10.8% year-on-year [8]. - The overall growth momentum in 1H25 was slightly above expectations, supported by government subsidies for scrapping and trade-in programs [8]. Electric Vehicle Market - Monthly retail sales of PV EVs reached 1.1 million units in June, representing a 30.2% year-on-year increase [1][9]. - The report highlights that BEVs outperformed PHEVs/EREVs in terms of growth, with BEVs showing 45% year-on-year growth in wholesale shipments during 1H25 [9]. OEM Strategies and Market Dynamics - OEMs are currently preparing their strategies for 2H25, with expectations of model launches and adjustments in response to government policies against over-competition [3]. - BYD remains a top pick due to its strategies aimed at regaining market share, including reducing SKUs and improving model features without price increases [4]. Battery Market Insights - EV battery installations grew by 35.9% year-on-year to 58.2 GWh in June, with total installations for 1H25 reaching 300 GWh, a 47.3% increase year-on-year [5]. - CATL and BYD maintained their market leadership in the battery sector, holding 43.7% and 21.5% market shares, respectively [5]. Lithium Market Trends - The price of lithium carbonate in China rebounded from a low of CNY 60,000 per tonne in late June to CNY 63,000 per tonne in early July [5][48]. - The report anticipates potential downside risks to lithium production in July due to weakened demand and government interventions [5][48].

NOATURA Asia Monday Morning Espresso EQUITY: EQUITY STRATEGY Liberation from tariff uncertainty? Expect volatile markets as tariffs-pause deadline nears. Separately, we upgrade Korea to Overweight Expect volatile markets as Trump's tariff deadline approaches We expect markets to be volatile into the 9-July deadline when the 90-day pause on President Trump's reciprocal tariffs expires for non-China trading partners. Trump indicated on Friday that he has signed letters to 12 countries outlining various tariff ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Chinese economy, suggesting a potential demand cliff in H2 2025, leading to a GDP growth forecast drop to 4.0% year-on-year from approximately 5.1% in H1 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recurring pattern in China's economic performance, where optimism in the first half of the year is often followed by disappointing outcomes in the second half, particularly in 2023 and 2024 [2]. - Austerity measures initiated in mid-May are expected to significantly impact consumption, particularly in the services sector, leading to a notable slowdown in retail sales growth to 3.1% year-on-year in H2 from an expected 5.1% in H1 [8][11]. - The property market continues to face severe challenges, with new home sales volume and value declining significantly, indicating a prolonged correction phase [32][35]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a demand cliff in H2 2025 due to multiple factors, including austerity measures, a payback effect from durable goods sales, and ongoing issues in the property sector [3][4]. - GDP growth is projected to decrease to 4.0% year-on-year in H2 from around 5.1% in H1 2025 [3]. Austerity Measures - The new anti-extravagance campaign has led to a significant drop in demand for services, particularly in the catering and alcohol sectors, with retail sales growth expected to slow to 3.1% year-on-year in H2 [6][11]. - The average funding for the consumer trade-in program is projected to decrease, further impacting retail sales growth [7][13]. Property Market - The property market is entering its fifth year of correction, with new home sales and prices continuing to decline, particularly in large cities [32][33]. - Existing home prices in tier-1 cities fell by 0.9% in April-May 2025, indicating ongoing weakness in the housing market [34]. Export Sector - China's export growth is expected to slow sharply in H2 2025 due to payback effects from front-loading and high tariffs, with a full-year export growth forecast of 0.0% [44][45]. - High-frequency data indicates strong headwinds for exports, with manufacturing sector PMIs reflecting contraction [45][46]. Investment Trends - Investment growth in key sectors has decelerated, with significant declines noted in the solar and lithium-ion battery sectors, highlighting the need for regulatory intervention [26][27]. - The report emphasizes that the ongoing issues of overinvestment and capacity underutilization are likely to create short-term economic headwinds [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the stablecoin industry Core Insights - The US Congress is developing regulations to promote the sound development of stablecoins, reflecting strong support from the Trump administration for crypto assets and aiming to maintain the US dollar's dominance as the world's currency [2][5][6] - The GENIUS Act establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to maintain reserve assets and disclose information about their reserves [4][7][8] - The stablecoin market is projected to expand significantly, potentially reaching $2 trillion by the end of 2028, driven by the demand for USD-pegged stablecoins [15][17] Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - The US Senate passed the GENIUS Act, which aims to create a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to be approved by authorities and maintain reserves of highly liquid assets [4][5][7] - Issuers must disclose reserve asset information monthly, with additional requirements for those with a market capitalization exceeding $50 billion [8][9] Market Dynamics - Major US retailers and travel companies are considering issuing USD-pegged stablecoins, which could lead to competition with banks and impact their fee income from credit card transactions [11][12][13] - The current global stablecoin market is dominated by USD-pegged stablecoins, which account for over 90% of transactions [16] Economic Implications - The promotion of USD-pegged stablecoins is seen as a strategy to maintain the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, potentially stabilizing the US Treasury bond market by increasing demand for these bonds [15][18][19] - The issuance of stablecoins could lead to increased foreign investment in US Treasuries, contributing to the stability of the dollar [20][21] Historical Context and Risks - The report draws parallels with the abandoned Libra project, highlighting potential risks associated with expanding stablecoin use for international payments [23][24][32] - Concerns exist regarding the ability of authorities to effectively supervise privately issued stablecoins and prevent financial crimes [28]