证券研究报告 2025.02.23 2025 年两会前瞻 3 https://www.chinacourt.org/article/detail/2025/02/id/8716860.shtml 4 https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202502/content_7004103.htm 5 6 https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202409/content_6974294.htm 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070004 SFC CE Ref：BDO991 qiusuo.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080520120005 SFC CE Ref：BTM851 jin3.li@cicc.com.cn 2025 年两会看点： 全国政协十四届三次会议和十四届全国人大三次会议分别将于 2025 年 3 月 4 日和 3 月 5 日在北京召开。结合当前的国 内外增长和政策环境，从资本市场角度，我们认为在两会期间主要关注以下看点： 1 https://www.gov.cn/yaowe ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment sentiment with a focus on the acceleration of passive foreign capital inflows while active foreign capital continues to experience outflows, albeit at a reduced scale [1][3][6]. Core Insights - Active foreign capital continues to flow out of the Chinese market, but the scale of outflows has narrowed, while passive foreign capital inflows have accelerated significantly [1][3][6]. - Southbound capital has seen a substantial increase, with inflows reaching 512.1 billion HKD this week, more than double the previous week's inflow of 217.7 billion HKD [2][7]. - The report highlights that the proportion of foreign investment in Chinese stocks remains historically low, with active funds holding only 6.1% of their assets in Chinese stocks, which is 1.1 percentage points below the benchmark index [4][6]. Summary by Sections Foreign Capital Flow - As of February 19, 2025, active foreign capital outflows from A-shares amounted to 1.3 million USD, while passive inflows were 4.3 million USD [6]. - The overall foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong stock market and ADRs increased to 6.8 million USD, with passive funds seeing a significant rise from 5.4 million USD to 9.1 million USD [3][6]. Southbound Capital - Southbound capital inflows reached a record high of 224.2 billion HKD on February 19, 2025, marking the highest single-day inflow since January 2021 [2][7]. - The proportion of southbound trading in the Hong Kong main board has increased from 20% to 30% since November 2024, with a slight rise to 31% this week [2][20]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift in global capital flows, with U.S. stocks turning to inflows of 1.45 billion USD, while emerging markets have seen a slowdown in outflows [5][7]. - The report emphasizes that the return of active foreign capital to the Chinese market is contingent upon the realization of trends in the AI industry and macroeconomic narratives [4][6].

证券研究报告 2025.02.26 专题研究 信用债：由短及长逐渐配置 年初以来，在资金整体偏紧、基本面数据和权益市场边际向好等多重因素的影响下，信用债收益率曲线中枢有所上 行，短端利率上行更多，收益率曲线几乎平坦。相对而言，久期越短、评级越低，表现相对较好；而长久期高等级 跟随利率债调整较多。昨日以来收益率有所企稳，投资者对于信用债是否已到买点，应该配置何种资产比较合适关 注较多，本文试图通过分析进行解答。 回顾历史来看，资金紧张导致信用债期限利差出现较为明显倒挂仅发生在 2013 年 6 月份"钱荒"阶段，不过这种资 金利率极端高位已很难再现。而 2023 年 9-10 月资金较长时间紧张引发的调整或可提供一定的借鉴意义，目前收益 率调整幅度已与当时持平，不过由于基本面预期不同，绝对收益率低于当时。因此如果基本面不出现显著变化，收 益率整体上行空间可能已不大。 展望未来，影响信用债表现的核心因素主要有二： 一是理财：其年初以来规模尤其是非现金管理类快速增长主要源于年初"开门红"效应，和存款重定价的分流效 应，不过这两个效应已接近尾声，未来如果没有存量收益的快速释放或者存款降息周期再度开启的话，规模增速可 ...

证券研究报告 2025.02.25 把握"中国资产"交易热潮下的资本市场板 块低估值投资机会 SAC 执证编号：S0080518090001 SFC CE Ref：BIJ003 zeyu.yao@cicc.com.cn 姚泽宇 分析员 樊优 分析员 周东平 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070009 SFC CE Ref：BRI789 you.fan@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524080008 SFC CE Ref：BVB080 dongping.zhou@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 87 100 113 126 139 152 2024-02 2024-05 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 沪深300 中金金融 | 股票 | 股票 | 目标 | P/B (x) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 评级 | 价格 | 2025E 2026E | | | 香港交易所-H | 跑赢行业 | 400.00 | 7.9 | 7.7 | | 富途控股-US | 跑赢行业 | 168.00 | 3.2 ...

宏观视点 2025年2月27日 从规模经济看 DeepSeek 对创新发展的启示 DeepSeek的出现有几个没想到，不是大型科技企业和科研院所而是初创企业，不是 实体科技公司而是一家金融领域的公司，不是来自处于领先地位的美国而是在大模 型领域相对落后的中国。这一切纯属偶然吗？只有大机构才能研发AI大模型的背后 是所谓的规模定律，即要素（数据、算力）投入的边际产出下降，模型性能提升需 要不断增加要素投入，带来规模的门槛要求。DeepSeek的破解在于以算法优化（技 术进步）提升算力（要素）的边际产出，一定程度上替代了算力投入。技术进步从 个体来讲似乎有偶然因素，但从宏观来讲是规模经济效应的力量，尤其是外部规模 经济，即上下游协同、共享基础设施和人才池的创新生态，中国在数字基础设施和 人才规模优势方面尤其突出。规模经济效应意味着大模型未来的发展或仍将由大国 主导。就中美之间的互动而言，规模定律隐含后发者有优势，所以美国通过限制算 力出口减缓中国的追赶。这是因为落后者要素投入的边际产出高于领先者，市场机 制激励要素投入从领先者流向落后者，有利于两者差距的缩小，这有点类似经济学 新古典增长模型的逻辑，即规模报酬递减 ...

宏观经济研究 2025.02.24 两会的政策线索 | 2025 年两会前瞻 SAC 执证编号：S0080521070001 SFC CE Ref：BSI036 peng3.zhou@cicc.com.cn 周彭 分析员 郑宇驰 分析员 张文朗 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080520110001 SFC CE Ref：BRF442 yuchi.zheng@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080520080009 SFC CE Ref：BFE988 wenlang.zhang@cicc.com.cn 特别观察 十四届全国人大三次会议、全国政协十四届三次会议分别将于 3 月 5 日、 3 月 4 日在北京召开。我们结合去年中央经 济工作会议以来的一些政策信号对两会的政策线索进行梳理。地方两会对全年经济形势判断仍然比较谨慎，短期资本 市场的表现可能并不会改变两会对全年经济仍有下行压力的判断。财政加码的总基调大概率不会改变，关键是落实扩 内需任务的思路和财政的方向：新质生产力的建设可能是重点发力方向，尤其是相关的基础设施投资；科技创新综合 投入增速会得到保障；土储专项债可能成为边际变化较大的方向，房 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious outlook for the electricity sector in 2025, indicating a potential weakening compared to 2024, with a focus on both pressures and opportunities in the market [1][4]. Core Insights - The electricity sector is expected to face pressures from a slowdown in electricity demand growth, projected at 5.5% to 6% for 2025, down from a compound annual growth rate of 7% in previous years [2][3]. - The report highlights three main opportunities within the sector: strong policy support for new energy, stricter market capitalization management for state-owned enterprises, and the potential for long-term investments in quality assets during market corrections [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector Overview - The report discusses the overall electricity market dynamics, noting that the installed capacity growth has significantly outpaced electricity demand growth from 2021 to 2024, leading to a more relaxed supply-demand balance [2][3]. - A comprehensive decline in electricity prices has been observed, particularly affecting thermal power, which has implications for the revenue of electricity companies in 2025 [3][4]. New Energy Opportunities - The report emphasizes the ongoing government support for the new energy sector, suggesting that policies will continue to evolve towards high-quality development rather than rapid expansion [6][7]. - The introduction of a new pricing mechanism for renewable energy projects is expected to stabilize profitability and encourage investment in the sector [7][8]. Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The report identifies a shift in market sentiment, with increased risk appetite among investors, which may lead to reduced demand for defensive assets like electricity stocks [4][5]. - It suggests that investors should focus on undervalued stocks in the renewable energy sector, particularly those with strong fundamentals and potential for recovery as policies are implemented [9][10]. Long-term Growth Potential - The report highlights the potential for offshore wind energy as a promising investment area, with expectations for significant project approvals and stable returns [10][11]. - It also discusses the importance of nuclear power in the long-term energy mix, projecting stable growth and profitability for leading nuclear companies [16][17]. Solar Energy Insights - The solar energy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with projections for growth in installations despite potential short-term fluctuations [19][20]. - The report notes that technological advancements and competitive dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping the future of the solar market [27][28]. Supply Chain and Production Trends - The report indicates that supply chain dynamics are improving, with a focus on maintaining production levels amid market fluctuations [24][25]. - It also highlights the importance of new technologies in enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs in the solar sector [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the market, particularly highlighting a structural bull market driven by sentiment and expectations, with a technical bull market defined by a price increase exceeding 20% [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets, with significant attention on foreign capital flows and their potential impact on market dynamics [2][22]. - It identifies three key characteristics of the current market: sentiment-driven, expectation-driven, and structurally focused, suggesting that the market is heavily influenced by a few leading technology stocks [4][6][19]. - The report also discusses the importance of understanding the structural nature of the market, where only a small percentage of stocks are outperforming the index, indicating a narrow base for the market rally [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index reaching new highs, particularly driven by technology stocks [2][3]. - Recent fluctuations in capital flows, including significant inflows and subsequent outflows, reflect investor sentiment and market volatility [3][8]. Foreign Capital Dynamics - Foreign capital has been increasingly active, with notable inflows observed, particularly in the technology sector, suggesting a potential for further investment [9][10]. - The report estimates that foreign capital allocation to Chinese stocks is currently low, indicating substantial room for growth if conditions improve [12][13]. Structural Market Characteristics - The report highlights that the current market is characterized by a structural bull market, where a limited number of stocks are driving the overall index performance [5][6]. - It notes that understanding the dynamics of these leading stocks is crucial for investors aiming to outperform the market [6][19]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with clear structural trends, particularly technology, while being cautious of market sentiment fluctuations [15][21]. - The report suggests a balanced approach, advocating for strategic entry during market dips and careful monitoring of market conditions [15][21].

• 上周五美股大跌，道琼斯指数创去年 10 月以来最大单周跌幅，油价下跌 3%，美债收益率下降，美元小幅回升，日元大幅上涨，显示市场避险情绪 升温，可选消费、科技、工业和能源板块领跌。 • 密歇根大学消费者信心指数降至一年来新低 64.7，引发市场对消费支出 （占美国经济总需求 70%）的担忧，主要原因是通胀预期增加和对未来失 业率上升的担忧。 • 美联储会议纪要显示，若通胀预期持续上升，可能采取更激进的货币政策， 但近期疲软经济数据可能促使其放缓甚至停止缩表，以应对潜在经济放缓 风险。 • 美国劳动力市场和服务业出现警讯，华盛顿特区初次申请失业金人数连续 两周上升，服务业 PMI 指数意外跌破荣枯线至 49.7，反映出政府削减支出 带来的外溢效应。 • 沃尔玛发布谨慎业绩指引后股价大跌，引发市场对家得宝、TJX Companies 和塔吉特等其他零售商未来业绩的担忧，加剧了上周五的市 场跌势。 Q&A 上周美国股市出现了较大波动，能否详细分析一下具体情况及其背后的原因？ 上周美国股市经历了从喜悦到悲伤的剧烈波动。上周三，标普 500 指数一度创 下新高，但到了周五却大幅下跌 1.7%，这是自今年 1 月以来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, emphasizing strong growth potential in e-commerce and AI+Cloud sectors Core Insights - The company has adopted a "user-first, AI-driven" strategy, focusing on e-commerce and AI+Cloud as core business areas, which have shown accelerated growth over the past year [1][3] - Alibaba Cloud's commercial revenue grew by 11% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth for six consecutive quarters, indicating a strong demand for AI technology across various industries [2][6] - The company plans to significantly increase investments in AI infrastructure, AI foundational models, and the AI transformation of existing businesses over the next three years, expecting these investments to exceed the total of the past decade [3][4] Financial Performance - Total consolidated revenue reached RMB 280.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, with adjusted EBITA growing by 4% to RMB 54.9 billion [8] - The e-commerce segment, specifically Taotian, saw a notable increase in customer management revenue, up 9% year-on-year, driven by online GMV growth and improved monetization rates [5][9] - Free cash flow decreased by 31% to RMB 39 billion, primarily due to increased spending on cloud infrastructure [8] Business Segments - The Taotian Group generated revenue of RMB 136.1 billion, a 5% increase year-on-year, with a strong growth in the number of new buyers and order volume [9] - The AI-driven cross-border e-commerce business (AIDC) reported a 32% revenue increase to RMB 37.8 billion, driven by strong performance in international retail [10] - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue grew by 13%, with adjusted EBITA increasing by 33%, reflecting a shift towards higher-margin public cloud products [11] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to enhancing operational efficiency across its various platforms, with a clear focus on e-commerce, AI, and cloud computing as key growth drivers [3][12] - Future investments will prioritize AI infrastructure, foundational models, and the integration of AI technologies into existing business operations to capture new growth opportunities [4][15] - The management emphasizes the importance of AI in transforming productivity and creating significant value across both B2B and B2C sectors [14][25]