中金公司 "对等关税"后的市场 20250407 摘要 Q&A 对等关税对全球市场的影响是什么？ 对等关税对全球市场的影响显著且复杂。首先，资产波动剧烈，情绪宣泄甚至 恐慌明显。具体来看，对等关税超预期主要体现在几个方面：一是所有贸易伙 伴不加区分地加征 10%的基线关税；二是部分贸易伙伴的关税对等，但实际加 征更多，如中国已被加征两轮 20%，理论上不应再被加征，但由于非关税贸易 壁垒和其他因素，反而被加更多。此外，还有 800 美元的小额包裹和汽车行业 的关税。这些措施使得美国整体有效税率达到近 100 年来的高点，即至少 23% • 美国有效税率因关税政策大幅提升至近百年高点，至少达 23%以上，对所 有贸易伙伴统一加征 10%基线关税，部分贸易伙伴如中国实际加征更多， 叠加小额包裹及汽车行业关税，导致市场反应剧烈。 • 市场情绪受冲击表现为避险交易，恒生科技、美股纳斯达克等估值较高股 票遭抛售，美股、美元下跌，债券和黄金上涨。流动性冲击显现，所有资 产包括避险资产下跌，美元上涨，投资者需现金应对赎回或风控减仓。 • 未来货币政策框架需关注国内流动性环境与政策空间，各国央行可能采取 措施对冲关税带来的市 ...

中金周期半月谈 - 业绩信息和关税变化对周期板块的影响 Q&A 20250406 全球关税战对油气化工行业的影响是什么？ 全球关税战对油气化工行业的影响主要体现在两个方面。首先，全球需求的不 确定性显著增加，这导致了油价的波动。自 2025 年初以来，油价一直在 75 至 85 美元之间波动，但近期由于全球需求的不确定性和 OPEC 增产计划，油价已 经跌破 70 美元，并有可能进一步下跌至 60 美元甚至更低。这种情况下，成本 压力将显著下降，为行业转折提供了条件。其次，关税战对部分化工产品的出 口产生了直接影响，例如服装、家具、箱包和鞋类等大量使用化工材料的产品 出口受到阻碍，从而影响了相关需求。 • 油价下跌至 66-70 美元区间，并可能进一步跌至 60 美元，显著降低石化行 业成本压力，为行业转折提供条件，但全球贸易紧张带来的需求不确定性 构成短期利空。 • 石化行业资本支出周期显示，2025 年资本支出预计较 2020 年下降 20%-32%， 较 2023 年下降约 20%，为行业转型奠定基础。 • 关税政策推动抛光垫领域鼎龙国产化进程，蜂窝陶瓷领域国瓷材料和奥普 环保受益，氨基酸领域梅花生物和 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the semiconductor equipment industry, highlighting an overall upward trend in orders and revenue growth for key players in the sector. Core Insights - Semiconductor equipment manufacturers are experiencing an increase in orders, driven by new product developments and rising wafer processing rates, which in turn boost material demand [1][3] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape for special materials like silicon carbide, with some product prices recovering [1] - The emergence of new suppliers in advanced packaging equipment, particularly in 2.5D, 3D, and 3.5D technologies, is noted, with domestic projects propelling certain companies to prominence [1][3] Summary by Sections North Huachuang's Revenue and R&D Investment - North Huachuang anticipates Q1 2025 revenue of 7 to 8 billion yuan, with a 30% increase in chip orders, projecting total chip orders for the year at approximately 38 billion yuan [4] - The company is actively investing in R&D across ion implantation and electroplating, planning to expand production by 3,000 to 4,000 units annually [4] North Huachuang's Acquisition of New Yao Wei - North Huachuang is set to complete the acquisition of New Yao Wei by June 2025, which is expected to add around 1 billion yuan to its consolidated revenue [5] New Source Energy's Development in Cleaning Equipment - New Source Energy reported over 2 billion yuan in revenue from chemical cleaning agents, with total revenue projected to reach around 1.2 billion yuan in 2025 [6] Wan Ye Enterprise's Progress in Ion Implantation - Wan Ye Enterprise's subsidiary, Kaisi Tong, has received approximately 54 new orders and aims to launch a prototype of its medium-energy ion implantation equipment by mid-2025 [9] Micro Company’s Latest Developments - Micro Company reported revenue of about 9.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a 30% year-on-year growth, and expects similar growth rates in 2025 [15] Trends in Storage Equipment - The storage equipment sector is expected to see significant growth, with domestic companies enhancing their competitiveness, particularly in high aspect ratio etching equipment [16] New Products from Tuo Jing Technology - Tuo Jing Technology has launched new products including advanced packaging laser glass equipment and PLD devices, with a significant increase in orders anticipated by 2025 [17] Huahai Qingke's Progress in CMP Equipment - Huahai Qingke has introduced new CMP equipment and is expected to achieve a 30% growth in revenue this year, driven by collaborations with traditional and advanced packaging companies [18] Jiangfeng Electronics' Target Markets - Jiangfeng Electronics holds about 20% of the global target market share, with strong demand driven by AI and semiconductor manufacturing expansions [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the implications of Trump's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" which are expected to significantly increase the effective tariff rate in the U.S. from 2.4% to a range of 16.3% under the baseline scenario, with potential increases up to 20.2% in extreme cases [1][11] - The focus of the tariffs is likely to be on the top 15 economies contributing to the U.S. trade deficit, which accounted for 86% of U.S. goods imports in 2024 [2][3] - The report highlights that the tariffs aim to level the playing field between the U.S. and its trading partners, particularly targeting countries with higher average tariffs and VAT rates [4][11] Summary by Sections Section 1: Scope of Tariffs - The reciprocal tariff policy emphasizes fairness, where the U.S. will match the tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. goods [2] - The focus will likely be on countries contributing to the U.S. trade deficit, with potential flexibility for certain nations like Mexico and Canada [3] Section 2: Tariff Rates - The report outlines three scenarios for the effective tariff rates: - Baseline scenario: effective tariff rate increases to 16.3% - Moderate scenario: increases to 13.3% - Extreme scenario: increases to 20.2% [11] - Countries like India, the EU, and Mexico are expected to be significantly impacted due to their higher existing tariff and VAT rates [4] Section 3: Exemptions - Mexico and Canada may receive exemptions due to their close trade ties with the U.S. and existing trade agreements [5][7] - The report suggests that these exemptions could be used as leverage to renegotiate trade agreements like the USMCA [5] Section 4: Economic Impact - The report estimates that under the baseline scenario, tariffs could raise PCE inflation by 1.1 percentage points and reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points [8][11] - The potential increase in government revenue from tariffs is projected to be $453 billion under the baseline scenario [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report introduces a framework to understand Trump's ultimate goals and policy paths, termed "Great Reset," focusing on addressing the significant wealth gap and high government debt pressure since World War II [2] - It is anticipated that Trump will attempt to reset the capital structure, aiming for a shift from financial capital to industrial capital, promoting re-industrialization and reducing wealth disparity [2][3] - The report suggests that without significant productivity improvements, the policy paths may lead to global capital rebalancing, inflationary pressures, dollar depreciation, and financial repression [3] Summary by Sections Great Reset: Why, What, and How - The report discusses the need for a reset due to the extreme wealth disparity and the shift in fiscal philosophy regarding debt sustainability in the U.S. [13] Wealth Disparity and Capital Structure Reset - Since the Reagan administration, the U.S. has seen a shift from industrial to financial capital, leading to a decline in labor income share and an increase in wealth inequality [14][16] - The report highlights that the wealthiest 1% of American households hold a significant portion of their assets in the stock market, while the bottom 50% have minimal stock market exposure [19][20] Debt Pressure and Debt Burden Reset - The report notes that U.S. government debt held by the public is approaching 100% of GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to 117% in the next decade [28] - It emphasizes that the government will likely need to address debt through inflation and potential administrative measures to lower interest rates [47] Asset Implications of the Great Reset - The report indicates that the reset will lead to a rebalancing of global capital between the U.S. and non-U.S. assets, inflationary pressures, dollar depreciation, and financial repression [48] - It suggests that the depreciation of the dollar may manifest more significantly against a basket of physical assets, including commodities and strategic resources [48] - The report anticipates a long-term decline in U.S. stock valuations, with a shift favoring value stocks over growth stocks, particularly in sectors representing industrial capital [52]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards traditional strong assets like US stocks and bonds, while highlighting opportunities in safe-haven assets such as gold and Chinese government bonds [2][8][20]. Core Insights - The global economy and financial markets are experiencing significant volatility in 2025, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a favorable outlook for safe-haven assets [2][8]. - The US stock market, which had previously outperformed, is now facing high valuations and increased policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess risk preferences [3][6][9]. - The report indicates a rising probability of a US economic recession, exceeding 50%, due to factors such as stagflation risks and high inflation [10][11][16]. - China's economic competitiveness in technology and manufacturing is improving, but the real estate market remains weak, impacting overall economic growth [30][31][35]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes that global trade tensions are suppressing economic growth, with expectations of a downward trend in global interest rates as central banks respond to these challenges [2][23]. - The US economy is under pressure from high inflation, high interest rates, and rising wages, which could lead to reduced corporate profitability and economic cooling [16][17]. US Market Analysis - The US stock market's high valuations and policy uncertainties are leading to adjustments, with investors shifting focus to European and Asian markets [3][9]. - The report highlights the need for investors to diversify their strategies, moving away from a simplistic buy-and-hold approach in US equities [9][19]. Chinese Economic Dynamics - The report notes that while China's technology and manufacturing sectors are gaining strength, the overall economic contribution from new industries remains low, with traditional sectors still dominating [30][34]. - The real estate market's ongoing weakness, particularly in new construction, is expected to have a prolonged negative impact on China's economic growth [31][33]. Investment Strategies - The report advocates for a diversified investment strategy that includes safe-haven assets and defensive sectors, as traditional strong assets face headwinds [8][9][20]. - It suggests that the issuance of special government bonds in China is aimed at stimulating consumption, particularly in durable goods, but warns of potential dependency on such policies [37][39]. Interest Rate and Debt Market - The report indicates that US debt yields are expected to decline as the Federal Reserve may need to lower rates in response to economic cooling [19][20]. - It also highlights the importance of managing the balance between fiscal expansion and maintaining economic stability, particularly in light of rising government debt levels [13][14][18].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the bond market in 2025, suggesting potential opportunities similar to those observed in 2023 [2][9]. Core Insights - The bond market in 2025 is expected to experience fluctuations but is not anticipated to end the bull market, with a focus on monetary policy changes and external demand [5][9]. - The economic narrative of "East Rising, West Falling" is highlighted as a key driver for both 2023 and 2025, emphasizing the need to monitor differences in external demand, domestic consumption, inflation, and financing needs [3][9]. - The report discusses the impact of the real estate market, noting a divergence between second-hand and first-hand housing transactions, with second-hand sales benefiting from policy support and improved demand [12][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government fiscal policy in supporting the economy, particularly in the context of rising debt levels and the need for effective consumption stimulation measures [28][29]. Summary by Sections Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue its bullish trend, driven by factors such as declining interest rates and the ongoing economic recovery [16][41]. - The report suggests that the bond market's performance is closely linked to the real estate sector's health, with new construction activity declining significantly [13][14]. Economic Conditions - The report highlights the challenges posed by external factors, including U.S.-China trade tensions and a weakening U.S. economy, which are expected to exert pressure on China's exports [19][20]. - Domestic consumption is also under scrutiny, with rising savings rates and declining consumer confidence impacting overall demand [21][23]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is characterized by a split performance, with second-hand homes seeing better sales compared to new properties, driven by improvement needs and policy support [12][15]. - The report notes that the decline in new construction activity is a leading indicator that may further depress real estate investment [14]. Fiscal Policy and Monetary Conditions - The report underscores the significance of fiscal policy in the current economic landscape, particularly in light of rising debt levels and the need for effective measures to stimulate consumption [28][29]. - It also discusses the necessity for monetary policy adjustments, particularly in lowering short-term interest rates to alleviate current market distortions [40].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing positions during market peaks to avoid potential losses, as demonstrated by the case of the E Fund Anxin Return Fund in 2015 [2][4] - It highlights that absolute return products are not suitable for investors who frequently monitor net value fluctuations, advocating for a long-term investment perspective [5][6] - The report suggests that the recent adjustments in the bond market, driven by rising interest rates, have led to a decline in convertible bond valuations, necessitating cautious bottom-fishing strategies [9][11] Summary by Sections Market Strategy - In 2015, the E Fund Anxin Return Fund effectively reduced its position during the bull market, which helped mitigate losses during subsequent market corrections [2][4] - Investors should maintain a calm demeanor and provide clear communication regarding position adjustments, using historical data to build trust with clients [6] Fund Performance - In 2015, structured funds exhibited strong performance, particularly at market peaks, although they ultimately faced liquidation [7] - The key to success during this period was maintaining product consistency, with absolute return products reducing positions at high valuations [7] Market Indicators - A significant drop below the 20-day moving average is identified as a signal for potential market downturns, serving as a stop-loss indicator [8] - The report notes that the current market conditions suggest a need to lower positions to around 30% and focus on stocks with high value [10] Future Market Expectations - The report anticipates that the adjustment process in the convertible bond market will continue for about a month, with valuation compression potentially exceeding expectations [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment outlook for the global consumer market, with strong resilience in high and middle-income consumer categories, while low-income consumers face weakened purchasing power [1][2]. Core Insights - The global consumer market shows significant differentiation, with high and middle-income categories demonstrating strong demand resilience, while low-income consumers are struggling [1][2]. - Essential consumer goods outperformed discretionary goods in Q4, driven by high inflation impacting low-income purchasing power, leading to a preference for cost-effective products [1][3]. - The global beauty market is expected to grow at around 4% in 2025, with emerging markets outperforming developed regions [1][12]. Summary by Sections Global Consumer Market Performance - The performance of global consumer goods companies in Q4 shows significant regional disparities, with North America experiencing flat overall demand and Europe outperforming [2]. - Japan's consumption growth is driven by inflation and inbound tourism, while Southeast Asia and India remain active markets [2]. Essential vs. Discretionary Goods - Essential goods performed better than discretionary goods in Q4 due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with leading companies in various sectors likely to show more pronounced performance [3]. Sportswear and Apparel Trends - The global sportswear industry saw strong growth in outdoor sports segments, while the mass apparel market remains competitive [4]. - U.S. holiday shopping season promotions boosted sales, but a slight decline is expected in 2025 due to macro uncertainties [4]. Beauty Market Dynamics - The beauty market varies significantly across regions, with North America facing pressure in mass cosmetics, while high-end fragrances continue to grow [7]. - The Chinese beauty market is facing challenges, with a projected retail sales decline in 2024 [8]. Food and Beverage Industry Outlook - The global food and beverage industry faces challenges from low-income consumer pressures in developed markets and slowing income growth in emerging markets [10]. - North American food demand is under pressure, while beverage demand remains relatively stable [10][11]. Future Projections - The beauty industry is expected to see a 4% growth rate in 2025, with emerging markets like India and Southeast Asia becoming key performance drivers for overseas beauty companies [12]. - The food and beverage sector is likely to experience a decline in revenue expectations but maintain earnings per share (EPS) stability due to effective cost management [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on the market, indicating that the cost-effectiveness of chasing high points is low, particularly around the 25,000 mark [2][3]. Core Insights - The current market exhibits extreme structural characteristics, with the technology sector driving index gains, while macro policies like monetary easing and fiscal policies are crucial for the expansion of other sectors [3][4]. - Southbound capital has become a significant driving force for the rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, with an expected inflow of nearly 200 billion HKD for the year, primarily from personal private equity and trend trading funds [3][11]. - The Hong Kong stock market's placement mechanism leads to almost unlimited chip supply, which can dilute the holdings of southbound capital, limiting its absolute pricing power [3][13]. - The U.S. stock market is influenced by AI, geopolitical issues, and policy uncertainties, with some bubbles already deflated, indicating a phase of bubble formation rather than a burst [3][14][15]. - The fiscal policy in 2025 will focus more on demand stimulation, particularly in the consumer sector, emphasizing the "investment in people" concept to enhance future supply potential and current consumption demand [3][25][34]. Summary by Sections Market Structure and Future Strategies - The market is characterized by a significant reliance on the technology sector, which constitutes about 40% of the Hang Seng Index, while the remaining 60% depends on macro policies [4]. - The performance of the new consumption sector in the Hong Kong market reflects structural opportunities and market sentiment recovery, benefiting from national trends and young consumer preferences [3][35][39]. Southbound Capital Dynamics - Southbound capital has seen a significant increase in inflow, averaging over 8 billion HKD daily since the Spring Festival, compared to over 3 billion HKD last year [11]. - Despite the increase in holdings, southbound capital does not possess absolute pricing power due to the open financial market and the stock placement mechanism [12][13]. U.S. Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market is currently facing several challenges, including AI-driven disruptions and policy uncertainties, which could affect the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [14][19]. - The valuation of the U.S. stock market remains high, but some bubbles have been deflated, making certain leading stocks' valuations more reasonable [15][17][23]. Consumer Sector Insights - The report highlights the importance of consumer demand in fiscal policy, with a focus on enhancing living standards through investments in education, healthcare, and social security [25][26][34]. - Recent policies aimed at boosting consumption have been comprehensive, addressing various factors affecting consumer behavior and emphasizing quality supply to stimulate demand [37][38]. New Consumption Trends - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is expected to maintain rapid growth, driven by changing consumer preferences and the emergence of structural opportunities [35][36][39]. - The report suggests that the new consumption sector's performance is independent of traditional quality consumption factors, indicating a shift in market dynamics [35][36].