Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a 12-month target price of RMB 54.00, indicating an expected return exceeding market expectations by more than 6% [5][18]. Core Insights - The merger between the company and Dongxing and Xinda is aimed at enhancing industry concentration and strengthening the leading position through resource integration [1]. - The merger is expected to significantly increase the company's net capital from RMB 46 billion to RMB 94.3 billion, moving it from the 11th to the 5th position among the top ten brokerages [2]. - The total number of branches is projected to increase by 78% to 436, enhancing regional network layout and wealth management capabilities [3]. - The merger will address the company's investment banking shortcomings and effectively increase asset management scale by 18% to RMB 800 billion [4]. Summary by Sections Merger Background - The merger is driven by the need for high-quality industry development through resource integration and business complementarity between the companies involved [1]. Capital Enhancement - Successful merger will double the company's net capital, significantly improving its capital leverage ratio to around 20% and enhancing capital utilization efficiency [2]. Regional Network and Wealth Management - The merger will increase the total number of retail clients by 52% and enhance the company's market share in wealth management, with a projected increase in transaction revenue [3]. Investment Banking and Asset Management - The merger will fill gaps in investment banking services, particularly for small and medium enterprises, and increase asset management resources significantly [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for CICC-H with a 12-month target price of HK$25.10, indicating an upside potential of 29.1% from the current price of HK$19.44 [8][10]. - For CICC-A, a "Neutral" rating is given with a 12-month target price of Rmb46.05, reflecting an upside of 27.3% from the current price of Rmb36.18 [8][10]. Core Insights - The proposed merger between CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Cinda Securities is expected to enhance CICC's capital base and leverage, improving capital utilization efficiency and boosting ROE levels [1]. - The merger is anticipated to create significant synergies across various business lines, including wealth management, investment banking, and investment, while also unlocking new opportunities in non-performing asset and restructuring sectors [1][6]. - Post-merger, CICC's financial metrics are projected to improve significantly, with revenue expected to increase by 32%, net profit by 45%, and net assets by 48%, enhancing its industry rankings [6][7]. Transaction Plan - CICC plans to absorb and merge with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities through the issuance of A-shares [1]. - The shareholding structure will see Central Huijin's stake diluted to 24.4%, while China Cinda AMC and China Orient AMC will hold 16.7% and 8.1%, respectively [6]. Financial Metrics - The transaction is expected to increase CICC's total assets to Rmb1,010 billion, total equity to Rmb175 billion, and net profit to Rmb9.5 billion [5][6]. - The net capital leverage ratio is projected to increase to a maximum of 20%, with a potential injection of approximately Rmb40 billion in net capital [6]. Business Synergies - The investment business is expected to contribute around 40% to revenue in 2024, with the merger enhancing its scale and efficiency [7]. - The wealth management sector will see an 80% increase in business outlets, growing from 245 to 436, and a 52% increase in retail clients [7]. - The investment banking business is expected to expand its team significantly, improving project execution capabilities and market share [7]. - The merger will also enhance CICC's capabilities in non-performing asset management and debt restructuring, transitioning to a "service + investment" model [7]. Cost Savings - The merger is expected to yield cost savings by sharing existing capabilities in IT and AI, avoiding redundant investments and improving ROE [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the global energy storage market, with a focus on high growth opportunities in non-US overseas markets, particularly in Europe and Asia [4][12]. Core Insights - The energy storage market is expected to experience significant growth driven by increasing demand in Europe, Asia, and Africa, alongside the contribution from AIDC (Automated Industrial Data Center) storage [2][12]. - The demand for energy storage is being catalyzed by the tight supply of battery cells, with leading companies experiencing full order books and production schedules extending into Q1 2026 [3][12]. - The report highlights the importance of local manufacturing in response to geopolitical factors and trade policies, with leading companies establishing overseas production facilities to enhance competitive barriers [3][25]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Key companies to focus on include CATL, EVE Energy, and HIBOR, with recommendations for both front-end and back-end energy storage opportunities [4]. Market Demand and Supply - The global energy storage market saw a significant increase in project planning and bidding, with a total of 534GW/1,430GWh of new projects planned globally as of November 2025, predominantly from Asia [13][18]. - The supply of battery cells remains tight, with a notable increase in production capacity utilization among leading manufacturers, which is expected to gradually ease by Q2 2026 [24][27]. Technological Advancements - The report notes a clear trend towards larger capacity battery cells, with significant advancements in energy density and cycle life, which are crucial for reducing costs and enhancing project economics [29][30]. Regional Market Outlook - The report provides a detailed outlook for various regional markets, emphasizing the unique drivers and challenges in each area, including the impact of local policies and resource availability [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, indicating a strong long-term growth potential driven by the demand for AI PCB copper plating materials [2][4]. Core Insights - The demand for AI PCB copper plating materials is expected to surge due to the upgrade of PCB products towards higher aspect ratios and increased blind buried holes, leading to a significant rise in both volume and price, thus driving rapid profit growth in the industry [2]. - The report forecasts that the proportion of PCB copper powder consumables in electroplating materials will increase from 15% currently to over 27% by 2029, reflecting a growing trend in copper powder usage [2]. - The industry is currently experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with signs of potential price increases in processing fees for copper powder due to strong downstream demand before new capacities come online [2]. Summary by Sections 1. PCB Electroplating and Consumables Introduction - Electroplating is a core process in PCB manufacturing, directly affecting the final product's performance, including signal transmission loss and power network integrity [7][10]. - The increasing complexity of AI PCBs, characterized by smaller hole diameters and higher layer counts, raises the requirements for electroplating materials [7][19]. 2. Changes in Demand and Technology - The report highlights a shift in the electroplating process from traditional copper balls to high-purity electronic-grade copper powder, driven by the need for improved plating uniformity and depth filling capabilities [28][30]. - The processing fee for copper powder is approximately five times that of copper balls, indicating a significant shift in the value chain towards higher-end materials [30][31]. 3. Market Size and Growth Projections - The global PCB electroplating copper material market is projected to reach $6.56 billion by 2029, with steady growth anticipated from $4.81 billion in 2025 [43][44]. - The report estimates that the copper value per square meter for PCBs used in AI servers is approximately $1.75, significantly higher than the $0.52 for traditional PCBs, reflecting the increased complexity and value of AI PCBs [32][33]. 4. Supply Landscape - The domestic supply landscape is characterized by major players such as Jiangnan New Materials and Guanghua Technology, while Japanese and Korean companies maintain a technological edge in high-end markets [35][36]. - The report notes that domestic manufacturers are rapidly increasing their production capacities, with significant expansions planned for the coming years [39][40].

Vi e w p o i n t | 17 Dec 2025 14:44:29 ET │ 14 pages China Brokers Our take on CICC and Dongxing/Cinda Securities merger details; Implications for China brokers CITI'S TAKE On 17-Dec-2025, CICC announced details on its merger plan with Dongxing/Cinda Securities, whose shareholders are offered to swap their shares with CICC's newly issued A-shares at a ratio of 1:0.4373/0.5188. Swap price of Rmb16.14/Rmb19.15 for Dongxing/Cinda Securities translates to 23%/8% premium vs. spot price while CICC-A's swap price ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the wealth management industry, projecting an 8% growth in 2026, with potential expansion to 36 trillion yuan, and possibly up to 37.4 trillion yuan if market conditions improve [12][14]. Core Insights - The wealth management industry is expected to benefit from the trend of deposit migration and the release of existing floating profits, leading to unexpected growth in 2025 [3][14]. - In 2026, wealth management institutions will have opportunities for multi-asset allocation and a further decline in household savings rates, but they will also face pressure from valuation adjustments [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the changes in residents' risk preferences and the implications for asset allocation, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits and asset management products [23][39]. Summary by Sections Resident Risk Preferences - The report suggests that in 2026, residents will have a slight increase in risk appetite, leading to a trend of liquid deposits and asset management products [4][23]. - The potential for increased allocation to rights products is noted, although the growth elasticity may not be significant at this stage [4][23]. Deposit Migration Trends - In 2025, the average decline in retail deposit rates was approximately 30 basis points, with a notable slowdown in the growth of fixed-term deposits [4][44]. - The report anticipates that in 2026, 32 trillion yuan of fixed-term deposits will mature, with a re-pricing range of 70-170 basis points, creating conditions for further deposit migration [4][45]. Fund Flow from Excess Savings - The report estimates that from 2020 to 2025, there will be a total of 14.4 trillion yuan in excess savings, with a potential additional 2-4 trillion yuan flowing into non-fixed deposit investment areas in 2026 [5][46]. - A decrease in the savings rate by 1 percentage point could lead to an additional 0.9 trillion yuan in new funds directed towards wealth management, funds, insurance, and real estate [5][46]. Wealth Management Asset Allocation Outlook - The report predicts that pure fixed-income wealth management products will grow by 7.5% to 24.9 trillion yuan in 2026, contributing significantly to the overall growth of the industry [13][14]. - The demand for public fund outsourcing, particularly for bond ETFs and rights funds, is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the need for enhanced returns [13][14]. Valuation Adjustment and Market Conditions - The report highlights that wealth management products will face "true" net value adjustment pressures starting in 2026, which may lead to increased product volatility [11][54]. - The need for wealth management institutions to effectively meet investor demands for stable value growth while managing expectations is emphasized as a key challenge [11][54].

8 December 2025 | 2:12PM HKT Equity Research CHINA BROKERS & ASSET MANAGERS Regulator proposes easing leverage for 'high-quality brokers'; GFS/CICC well-placed for ROE upside Recently, the CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission) proposed to optimize evaluation metrics for 'high-quality institutions' (see here), moderately expanding their capital space and leverage ceilings, and increasing capital utilization efficiency. We believe this will help brokers fulfilling the criteria (yet to be provided by t ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese economy is facing dual challenges of debt tightening and declining real estate prices, leading to reduced consumption and investment, which puts pressure on economic growth [1][3] - The geopolitical economic competition between China and the US shows that China leads in manufacturing while the US excels in monetary finance [1][5] - AI technology advancements are driving the chip industry, but the efficiency of performance improvements is decreasing according to Moore's Law, raising concerns about potential AI bubble risks [1][6] - The US and Europe are implementing policies to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing, which has already led to a significant decrease in China's exports to the US [1][7] - China's exports are showing strong growth, particularly to Africa, ASEAN, and Europe, as companies increasingly rely on export markets due to weak domestic demand [1][8] Summary by Sections Economic Challenges - The main challenges facing the Chinese economy include debt tightening and declining real estate prices, which have led to reduced consumption and investment, creating downward pressure on economic growth [3][4] - The increase in debt repayments by businesses and households has led to higher savings, but weak demand has resulted in decreased loan demand [3][4] Geopolitical Competition - China and the US have distinct competitive advantages, with China excelling in manufacturing and the US in monetary finance [5] - Both countries are advancing in the digital economy and AI, but the US is attempting to restrict China's AI technology development through semiconductor export limitations [5] AI and Chip Industry - AI advancements are significantly impacting the chip industry, allowing for performance improvements through algorithm optimization, but the diminishing returns on investment in chip performance need to be monitored [6] Trade Dynamics - The US and Europe are taking measures to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing, with new tariffs leading to a notable decline in Chinese exports to the US [7] - China's export growth is robust, driven by weak domestic demand and a shift in trade partners towards countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [8][9] Domestic Demand Issues - The imbalance between production and consumption in China is contributing to insufficient domestic demand, necessitating coordinated development of internal and external cycles to enhance consumption [10][11] - Improving income distribution and strengthening the social security system are essential for boosting total demand and sustainable economic growth [10][14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company Core Insights - The production of copper and molybdenum is expected to be impacted by the suspension of Inner Mongolia mining operations, leading to an estimated reduction of approximately one month in annual output [2][4] - The company anticipates stable production of copper and molybdenum in 2026, with gold production growth primarily driven by acquisitions and the Shaling project, contributing a total of nearly 3 tons of gold [5][12] - The Shaling project is projected to commence production in the second half of 2026, contributing about 1 ton of gold output [6][12] - The company has experienced significant cost increases in the first three quarters of 2025, with limited potential for future cost reductions due to rising labor and safety investment costs [8][24] Summary by Sections Production and Financial Outlook - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company produced 18.4 tons of gold, 80,000 tons of copper, and 6,000 tons of molybdenum, with smelting outputs of 38 tons of gold and 400,000 tons of copper [4] - The company expects a decrease in copper and molybdenum production due to the suspension of operations, with costs for copper and molybdenum at approximately 38,000 yuan/ton and 190,000 yuan/ton respectively [4][8] Project Developments - The Shaling project has a total investment of approximately 6 billion yuan, with nearly 4 billion yuan already invested, and is expected to release 4-5 tons of production by 2027 and reach full capacity of 10 tons by 2028 [15][12] - Acquisitions such as the Dabayang and Liaoning mines are expected to maintain current production levels without expansion plans [7][12] Cost and Production Challenges - The company faces limited room for cost reductions in the future, primarily due to increased labor and safety costs, as well as a decline in ore grades [8][24] - The Inner Mongolia mining suspension's impact has been accounted for in the third-quarter financials, with normal production expected to resume in the fourth quarter [9] Future Production Plans - The company anticipates that the gold production from acquisitions and the Shaling project will contribute significantly to its output in 2026, with a projected total increase of nearly 3 tons [5][12] - The overall rights production for the group is expected to be close to 80% in the coming year, excluding the Shaling project [20]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market, indicating potential for a long-term bull market driven by structural factors in both the asset and funding sides [2][3][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the long-term bull market in the Chinese stock market requires a combination of asset-side and funding-side factors, with globalization enhancing both aspects [3][18]. - It highlights that despite a decline in economic growth rates, stable profit growth and elevated valuation levels can sustain a bull market, drawing parallels with historical experiences from developed countries [15][22]. - The report identifies key drivers for the A-share market's upward momentum, including growth potential, high-quality overseas expansion, and improvements in corporate governance [4][5][6][7]. Summary by Sections Growth Potential - The report discusses the transition towards a more efficient economy, driven by innovation and research, as the financial cycle shifts downwards [4][24]. - It notes that China's R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP has reached 2.6%, aligning with developed countries, and highlights the increasing complexity of the economy [25][30]. High-Quality Overseas Expansion - The report states that China is actively expanding through trade and investment, with high-tech and high-growth companies increasingly exposed to international markets [5][33]. - It mentions that the share of overseas revenue for specialized and innovative companies has risen significantly, indicating a shift towards global markets [35][39]. Corporate Governance Improvements - The report outlines various policies aimed at enhancing corporate governance, increasing transparency, and encouraging dividend payouts, which are expected to improve overall market returns [6][43]. - It highlights that the contribution of dividends to total returns in the A-share market has been low but is improving due to recent reforms [48][49]. Global Long-Term Funding - The report emphasizes the importance of stable long-term funding, particularly from insurance and pension funds, in supporting the bull market [7][57]. - It notes that global capital rebalancing may lead to increased foreign investment in the Chinese market, enhancing liquidity and valuation [61][63].