证券研究报告 2025.03.03 中金医药月度 10+7 组合：25 年 3 月组合 张琎 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080517040001 SFC CE Ref：BHM689 jin.zhang@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 78 89 100 111 122 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 沪深300 中金医疗健康 | | 张琎 分析员 SFC CE Ref：BHM689 jin.zhang@cicc.com.cn | SAC 执证编号：S0080517040001 | | | | V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 纵轴：相对值（%） | | 行业动态 V：shuinu9870 | | | 122 | 沪深300 | | 中金医疗健康 | | | 行业近况 | | | 111 | | | | | | 过去一月（2 月 1 日至 2 月 28 日），医药板块指数上涨 5.07%，上证综指 | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the high-end equipment sector, particularly focusing on specific companies and segments that are expected to benefit from market trends and technological advancements [2]. Core Insights - The mechanical sector is experiencing significant trends influenced by market conditions and economic changes, with a focus on smart manufacturing and emerging technologies [3]. - Companies like Bafang and Jiechang are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their low valuations and underestimated growth prospects [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain dynamics and the recovery of demand in various segments, including electric bicycles and composite materials [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Electric Assist Bicycle Industry - The inventory cycle in the electric assist bicycle industry is nearing its end, with Bafang expected to see significant revenue growth in 2025 and 2026 due to increased demand from both new and existing customers [4][5]. Composite Material Industry - The industrialization of composite materials is accelerating, with major manufacturers placing significant orders. Capacity utilization is expected to reach full capacity by the second half of 2025, presenting investment opportunities in equipment and material companies [4][6]. Robotics and Smart Manufacturing - Ailite's strategic shift towards humanoid robot ecosystem development is noted, with a focus on its progress in smart manufacturing and the potential for a second growth curve [4][7]. - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to companies involved in humanoid robotics, particularly Ailite, as it navigates its strategic adjustments [8]. Engineering Machinery Sector - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a flat upward cycle, with state-owned enterprises improving profitability through reforms. Companies like LiuGong are expected to benefit from these changes [4][21][24]. - The demand for engineering machinery is influenced by the real estate cycle, with expectations of a gradual recovery in demand [22]. Military Industry - The military sector is transitioning towards a focus on delivery assurance, with increased production tasks in areas such as aviation and missiles. The demand for materials is expected to grow significantly [4][27][29]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements in the military sector, particularly in unmanned and intelligent systems, as key areas for future investment [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in high-end equipment manufacturing with strong competitive positions and high barriers to entry, such as Yingjian Technology and Feilihua [30]. - Short-term investment strategies should target companies in the aerospace supply chain that are expected to show early recovery in demand and financial performance [30].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for stocks over commodities and bonds, suggesting a preference for equities in the current market environment [5]. Core Insights - Recent market style rotation has shifted towards small-cap and growth styles, influenced by various macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [3]. - The industry rotation model recommends sectors such as steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, based on liquidity and research performance [4]. - Active quantitative stock selection strategies have shown varied performance, with small-cap strategies outperforming others [6][10]. Summary by Sections Market Style Rotation - The current market style is leaning towards small-cap growth, with macro indicators slightly favoring small caps and market sentiment benefiting growth styles [3]. - Key drivers include a decline in new investor numbers and macroeconomic indicators [3]. Recommended Industries - The recommended sectors for March include steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, selected based on an optimized industry rotation model [4]. - Media, integrated communications, and pharmaceuticals excel in liquidity, while steel scores high in research performance [4]. Asset Allocation Views - The report suggests a hierarchy of asset allocation: stocks are preferred over commodities, which in turn are preferred over bonds [5]. - The overall sentiment towards stocks is optimistic, supported by macroeconomic indicators, although caution is advised due to potential resistance in major indices [5]. Active Quantitative Stock Selection Strategies - The small-cap digging strategy has shown the best performance, with a 9.9% return in February, significantly outperforming small-cap indices [6]. - The investment behavior quality evaluation strategy has also performed well, yielding a 9.9% return in February and over 10% year-to-date [7][8]. Growth Strategy Performance - The ChatGPTBoost growth selection strategy yielded a 4.5% return in February, with a slight excess return over equity fund indices [9]. - The strategy focuses on identifying stocks with improving profitability and sustainable ROE [9]. Future Strategy Recommendations - Future recommendations emphasize the high valuation and market participation of small-cap and growth strategies, suggesting continued focus on these areas [11]. - Specific strategies to watch include small-cap digging and XGBoost for growth selection [11].

Investment Rating - The report recommends an overweight allocation to leading companies in the chemical industry at this time [1] Core Viewpoints - The recovery of the real estate market is significantly supporting the demand for chemical materials, particularly in new and second-hand home renovations, with a notable increase in transaction volumes in major cities [3][4] - Anticipated policy measures from the upcoming Two Sessions are expected to benefit the chemical industry, particularly in refining and ethylene sectors, by optimizing industrial layout and increasing high-end capacity supply [3][4] - The cost pressures on chemical companies have substantially eased due to a significant decline in coal prices and oil prices, which enhances profitability [4] - The valuation of leading chemical stocks is at historical lows, with the price-to-book ratio of CITIC's segmented chemical leaders at only 2.03 times, indicating potential for value re-evaluation [5] - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for the petrochemical industry, with capital expenditures declining and new capacity releases concluding, leading to a gradual improvement in industry conditions [6] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Impact - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with a 3% year-on-year increase in transaction volume across 30 major cities and a 45% increase in second-hand home transactions in key cities, which supports chemical demand [3][4] Policy Expectations - The upcoming Two Sessions may introduce favorable policies for the chemical industry, focusing on eliminating outdated capacity and enhancing high-end production [3][4] Cost Pressure Relief - Recent declines in coal prices (down 200-300 RMB/ton) and oil prices (around $70/barrel) have significantly reduced cost pressures for major chemical companies, improving their profitability [4] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-book ratio for leading chemical stocks is at a low historical level, suggesting a disconnect between stock prices and fundamental improvements, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [5] Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a recovery phase post-2025, following a three-year down cycle, with capital expenditures decreasing and new capacity reaching its peak [6] Company-Specific Developments - Wanhua Chemical is facing challenges but has strong fundamentals in its MBIA business, with prices for key products at high levels, indicating potential for profit growth [7][8] - Hualu Hengsheng's urea business is performing well with over 3 million tons of capacity and improving profitability despite price fluctuations [12] - Longbai Group is expected to see improved profitability due to limited global titanium ore supply and increased production capacity [21] - Baofeng Energy is benefiting from lower coal prices, leading to significant profit growth in its coal-to-olefins projects [22]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Chinese bond market, suggesting it may experience a range-bound market with limited upside and downside potential [68]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment has shifted towards caution in the Chinese bond market, influenced by recent stock market strength and a tight funding environment, leading to a decrease in duration and leverage preferences [1][9]. - A significant majority of investors (90%) believe that interest rates will trend downwards again within the year [1]. - The report emphasizes that the current market adjustments are likely temporary and not indicative of a long-term trend, with fundamental support for the bond market remaining intact [1][68]. Summary by Sections Domestic Economic and Policy Outlook - Investors have a neutral view on the intensity of future stimulus policies, with most expecting no significant surprises [2]. - There is a cautious outlook on new home sales in 2025, with the majority anticipating sales to remain flat or decline [2]. - Investors are divided on the impact of technological advancements on the economy, with many seeing a mixed effect due to the weakness in traditional sectors [2][43]. Overseas Economic Conditions - Nearly half of the investors believe that the U.S. economy in 2025 will not differ significantly from 2024, with a notable portion expressing uncertainty [3][22]. - There is a prevailing concern regarding the U.S. fiscal deficit, with many investors expecting it to exceed $2 trillion [3][25]. - The report notes a significant divergence in opinions regarding U.S. inflation, with 27% of investors perceiving increasing inflationary pressures [3][12]. Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Investors are showing a preference for relative value strategies, with an increased inclination towards cautious trading and a decrease in leverage [9]. - The report highlights a notable increase in the preference for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising risk aversion [9]. - The majority of investors expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to decline to the range of 4%-4.5% by the end of 2025 [6][33]. Credit Market Insights - There is a rising expectation for credit spreads to widen, particularly for shorter-duration bonds, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [7]. - Investors are increasingly cautious about long-term credit bonds, with a significant portion opting for shorter-duration investments [8]. Asset Allocation and Future Outlook - The report indicates a cautious stance among investors regarding the bond market, with a significant portion expecting it to remain range-bound [68]. - The anticipated increase in government bonds for 2025 is projected to be between 1-3 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [51]. - Investors are divided on the future trajectory of the Chinese CPI, with expectations ranging from stability to a mild increase [55].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The short-term fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are significantly influenced by the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, with a model indicating that without effective policy management, the RMB may experience greater volatility than observed [1][26] - A strong positive correlation exists between certain A-share stocks and the RMB exchange rate, suggesting potential investment opportunities if the RMB appreciates [2][28] - The report highlights that the US trade policy uncertainty index has a direct impact on the RMB/USD exchange rate, particularly when the index exceeds a certain threshold [18][27] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Research - The report discusses the impact of US trade policy uncertainty on the RMB exchange rate, emphasizing that this uncertainty has been a key factor in short-term fluctuations since October of the previous year [1][26] - A model was developed incorporating various factors such as government bond yield spreads and risk premiums to analyze the RMB exchange rate [1][23] RMB Exchange Rate and Risk Premium - The report notes that the correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the US-China 10-year government bond yield spread is strong, with a coefficient of 0.63 from August 2015 to January 2025 [5][9] - It identifies two key risk premium indicators in China: the private financing spread and the residential rental yield spread, both of which have shown a strong negative correlation with the RMB exchange rate [7][9] Impact of US Trade Policy - The US trade policy uncertainty index, which measures the frequency of discussions about trade uncertainty in major US newspapers, has shown a significant correlation with the RMB exchange rate, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty [15][18] - The report quantifies that when the trade policy uncertainty index exceeds 280, its correlation with the RMB/USD exchange rate increases significantly [18][27] Potential Factors for RMB Appreciation - The report identifies that a decline in internal risk premiums could lead to a trend of RMB appreciation, especially if the US economy underperforms and leads to monetary easing [2][28] - It also highlights that a significant number of A-share stocks have a strong positive correlation with the RMB exchange rate, indicating potential investment opportunities if the RMB strengthens [2][28]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the technology sector, highlighting a structural bull market driven by emotions and selective stock performance [3][5][10]. Core Insights - The recent market rally is characterized as a typical structurally driven bull market, primarily fueled by optimism in the technology sector, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 24% since February 3 [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to focus on individual stock selection and industry structure to outperform the index, as the current rally is concentrated among a few leading technology stocks [3][5][10]. - Future market performance is expected to depend on catalysts within the industry, technical indicators, and the flow of funds, particularly from passive and trading funds [7][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index has rebounded significantly, recovering all losses since December 2021, with a 6% increase last week [1]. - The report notes that the market has shown signs of fatigue, with a brief pullback before the positive sentiment was reignited by Alibaba's earnings report [2][5]. Fund Flows - There has been a substantial inflow of southbound capital, with HKD 512.1 billion entering the market, more than double the previous week's inflow [4]. - The report highlights that passive funds focused on Chinese and US-listed companies are driving the inflows, while active funds continue to see outflows [4][10]. Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market's short-term performance will hinge on industry-specific catalysts and the emotional state of investors, with a cautious approach recommended around the 23,000-24,000 point range [8][9]. - Long-term prospects indicate a shift towards a more structural market, driven by established industry trends and the potential for significant capital reallocation [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on four main investment themes: stable returns through dividends and buybacks, overseas expansion in mid-tier manufacturing and new retail, technology investments related to AI, and new consumer trends [12].

宏观经济研究 2025.02.23 化债背景下的财政展望 邓巧锋 分析员 段玉柱 分析员 张文朗 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080521080004 yuzhu.duan@cicc.com.cn 展望今年财政政策，我们认为全年新增财政力度有望强于 2024 年，而且增量资源支持化债对经济有一定的积极影响。 而在关注财政政策逆周期调节的同时，或不应忽视财税政策改革的影响。此外，若要更大程度缓解地方或有债务负担， 我们认为或需适当延长城投转型时间表，缓释其经营性债务的再融资压力，同时增加对企业欠款化解的财力支持。具体 来看有以下几点值得关注。 新一轮化债政策可减少原有模式对地方财力的挤占，提升财政的逆周期调节作用。2024 年前期受到地方化债影响，一 般预算支出中多项支出进度偏慢，随着地方可用财力的逐步释放，我们认为原有易受挤占的领域支出有望得以支持。去 年底以来基建工地资金到位情况改善，或是体现之一。我们预计今年广义财政力度有望高于 2024 年，节奏上前置发力。 在财政阶段性加大逆周期调节力度之外，财税体系改革也在推进中，尤其是在严控新增地方隐性债务、加强财政预算绩 效管理的背景下，财政支出或持续呈有保有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Outperform" rating for major companies such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, Uber, and DoorDash, while a "Neutral" rating is assigned to eBay [3]. Core Insights - The overall US stock market exhibited a volatile trend in 4Q24, with high valuations and a generally flat fundamental outlook. The divergence in AI expectations is a key underlying factor. Most companies met or slightly exceeded expectations, but guidance for 1Q25 from some companies fell short of expectations. Major tech firms continue to invest heavily in AI, with significant capital expenditures indicating a strong commitment to AI development [4][5]. - The report highlights that the advertising market grew by 14.5% YoY in 4Q24, while cloud computing revenue from leading providers increased by 25.2% to $64.6 billion, although this was below market expectations. E-commerce in the US saw a 4.4% increase in retail sales, with European retail recovering and inflation easing [6][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The US stock market entered a high volatility phase in 4Q24, influenced by policy uncertainties and high valuation levels. The internet sector's revenue growth is expected to face challenges due to a high growth base and macroeconomic complexities [14][20]. Company Performance - Meta and Amazon were standout performers in terms of profit, with Meta benefiting from a one-time adjustment in management expenses and Amazon seeing strong performance in North American retail and advertising [26][30]. - The report notes that the capital expenditures of major internet companies have entered a "worry phase," where increased spending may lead to profit pressures amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions [5][14]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Major companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for AI, with Meta projecting $60-65 billion for 2025 (up 66-80% YoY) and Google estimating $75 billion (up 43% YoY). Amazon is expected to have annualized capital expenditures around $100 billion [5][30]. Earnings Forecasts - The report indicates that there have not been significant upward adjustments in earnings forecasts for 2025, reflecting a cautious outlook for revenue growth amid high bases and potential profit pressures from capital expenditure depreciation [28][30].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" with specific stock recommendations for Nvidia and Broadcom, indicating a positive outlook for AI hardware and infrastructure demand [4][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements made by DeepSeek in generative AI technology, particularly its V3 model, which achieves capabilities comparable to leading models like GPT-4 at only 1/10th the training cost. This innovation is seen as a response to the constraints on AI hardware procurement due to US-China trade tensions, suggesting a potential increase in demand for computational resources across the industry [4][5]. Summary by Sections Model Innovations - DeepSeek continues to utilize the MoE (Mixture of Experts) architecture, which reduces computational costs by activating only a subset of expert models during training. The V3 model has increased the number of experts to 256, optimizing resource usage [10][11]. - The introduction of FP8 precision training significantly lowers computational resource consumption compared to traditional FP16 methods, enhancing training efficiency [18][19]. - The MTP (Multi-token Prediction) method improves training efficiency by allowing the model to predict multiple tokens simultaneously, thus increasing data utilization and reducing overall training data requirements [24][28]. Hardware Engineering Innovations - The report discusses the importance of hardware engineering innovations in response to the growing demands of large models. The use of distributed parallel strategies, such as Expert Parallel (EP), allows for efficient deployment of expert models across multiple GPUs, minimizing communication overhead [35][38]. - The DualPipe strategy enhances the efficiency of data transmission during training by allowing simultaneous forward and backward computations, thereby reducing idle time for computing devices [44][47]. - The implementation of PTX code facilitates hardware optimization, enabling developers to maximize the efficiency of specific models under given hardware conditions [49][51]. Market Demand and Trends - The report anticipates robust growth in the AI hardware and infrastructure market driven by the "democratization of large models," suggesting that the demand for efficient computational resources will continue to rise [7][8]. - It emphasizes the need for customized chip architectures to support the evolving requirements of MoE models, indicating a shift in design priorities within the semiconductor industry [53].