港股策略专题 证券研究报告 2025.03.02 反弹结束了么？ 市场回顾：经历了由 DeepSeek 引发的中国资产气势如虹的重估叙事后，在本周恒指一度突破我们给出的重要阻力位 24,000 点附近后旋即大幅回调，为自 1 月中旬以来的首次周度下跌。指数层面，前期领涨的恒生科技本周大跌 5.3%， 而 MSCI 中国、恒生指数与恒生国企的跌幅也分别达到了 4.2%、3.3%与 3.6%。行业层面，电信服务（-7.6%）与媒体 娱乐（-7.5%）大幅回调，可选消费（-5.3%）跌幅同样靠前。相反，房地产板块则逆势上涨 6.2%。 前景展望：在经历了 1 月中旬以来尤其是春节假期后令人"瞠目结舌"的大涨后，随着短期情绪的透支、国内重要会议 临近，以及外围扰动再度升温，港股市场在本周大幅回调，周五当天恒生科技大跌近 6%。从一定意义上，市场的回撤其 实并不意外，甚至是在预期内的，也完全符合我们在过去两周向投资者持续提示的信息：一方面是短期情绪是明显透支 的；另一方面是驱动本轮上涨资金主要还是交易型资金而非长线资金，尤其是上周南向资金追涨更放大了亢奋程度。我 们在 2 月 16 日发布的《中国资产的重估？》中明确指 ...

证券研究报告 2025.03.03 中金医药月度 10+7 组合：25 年 3 月组合 张琎 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080517040001 SFC CE Ref：BHM689 jin.zhang@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 78 89 100 111 122 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 沪深300 中金医疗健康 | | 张琎 分析员 SFC CE Ref：BHM689 jin.zhang@cicc.com.cn | SAC 执证编号：S0080517040001 | | | | V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 纵轴：相对值（%） | | 行业动态 V：shuinu9870 | | | 122 | 沪深300 | | 中金医疗健康 | | | 行业近况 | | | 111 | | | | | | 过去一月（2 月 1 日至 2 月 28 日），医药板块指数上涨 5.07%，上证综指 | ...

摘要 Q&A 最近机械板块的市场环境和经济变化有哪些显著趋势？ 最近市场环境和经济变化对机械板块产生了显著影响。工程机械、AI 驱动的 AIDC 以及机器人等细分方向都出现了新的发展趋势。特别是智能制造领域，市 场关注度较高，我们进行了相关调研，寻找低位且预期不足的个股，如八方股 份和捷昌驱动。 中金公司 高端装备半月谈 • 电助力自行车行业库存周期接近尾声，八方股份受益于新老客户需求叠加， 预计 2025 年和 2026 年收入显著提升。关注电机设计与力矩传感器核心能 力在人体相关领域的迁移。 • 复合集流体产业化加速，各大厂商已下达 G 瓦级订单，材料厂商产能利用 率预计在 2025 年下半年满负荷运转，并启动大规模扩产。设备公司和材料 公司有望迎来投资机会。 • 艾立特发布智能底座，标志着战略调整，从工业机器人系统集成应用向人 形机器人生态建设转型。关注其在智能制造领域的进展及第二成长曲线的 挖掘。 • AIDC 基建中备电柴油发电机组板块行情持续，供需缺口短期难以缓解，量 价提升逻辑在招标中不断验证。玉柴国际合资公司业绩亮眼，自主品牌验 证成功并逐步批量出货。 • 工程机械行业需求呈现扁平化上行周期， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for stocks over commodities and bonds, suggesting a preference for equities in the current market environment [5]. Core Insights - Recent market style rotation has shifted towards small-cap and growth styles, influenced by various macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [3]. - The industry rotation model recommends sectors such as steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, based on liquidity and research performance [4]. - Active quantitative stock selection strategies have shown varied performance, with small-cap strategies outperforming others [6][10]. Summary by Sections Market Style Rotation - The current market style is leaning towards small-cap growth, with macro indicators slightly favoring small caps and market sentiment benefiting growth styles [3]. - Key drivers include a decline in new investor numbers and macroeconomic indicators [3]. Recommended Industries - The recommended sectors for March include steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, selected based on an optimized industry rotation model [4]. - Media, integrated communications, and pharmaceuticals excel in liquidity, while steel scores high in research performance [4]. Asset Allocation Views - The report suggests a hierarchy of asset allocation: stocks are preferred over commodities, which in turn are preferred over bonds [5]. - The overall sentiment towards stocks is optimistic, supported by macroeconomic indicators, although caution is advised due to potential resistance in major indices [5]. Active Quantitative Stock Selection Strategies - The small-cap digging strategy has shown the best performance, with a 9.9% return in February, significantly outperforming small-cap indices [6]. - The investment behavior quality evaluation strategy has also performed well, yielding a 9.9% return in February and over 10% year-to-date [7][8]. Growth Strategy Performance - The ChatGPTBoost growth selection strategy yielded a 4.5% return in February, with a slight excess return over equity fund indices [9]. - The strategy focuses on identifying stocks with improving profitability and sustainable ROE [9]. Future Strategy Recommendations - Future recommendations emphasize the high valuation and market participation of small-cap and growth strategies, suggesting continued focus on these areas [11]. - Specific strategies to watch include small-cap digging and XGBoost for growth selection [11].

中金公司 加配化工龙头正当时 摘要 Q&A 为什么在当前时间点看好化工基础行业的龙头企业？ 当前看好化工基础行业龙头企业主要基于以下三个因素： 首先，房地产市场出 现了明显的企稳迹象。截止 2025 年 2 月 28 日，30 个大中城市商品房成交面积 累计同比增长 3%，十个核心城市二手房成交面积同比增长 45%。由于化工材料 主要用于新房和二手房装修，因此房地产市场的回暖对化工需求形成了显著支 撑。此外，各地政府在首付和利率方面推出了一系列优惠政策，进一步推动了 房地产市场的复苏，从而带动了对化工产品的需求。 其次，两会即将召开，政 策层面可能会出台一系列有利于化工行业发展的措施。李强总理在二月份常务 会议上指出，将优化产业布局，推动落后低效产能退出，增加高端产能供给。 这些政策预期将在两会期间或之后逐步落实，对炼油、乙烯及部分化工领域产 • 房地产市场企稳回暖，十个核心城市二手房成交面积显著增长，叠加各地 政府的优惠政策，有效支撑了化工材料的需求，尤其是在新房和二手房装 修领域。 • 两会政策预期利好化工行业，优化产业布局，淘汰落后产能，增加高端产 能供给，尤其对炼油、乙烯等领域产生积极影响，财政政策稳 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Chinese bond market, suggesting it may experience a range-bound market with limited upside and downside potential [68]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment has shifted towards caution in the Chinese bond market, influenced by recent stock market strength and a tight funding environment, leading to a decrease in duration and leverage preferences [1][9]. - A significant majority of investors (90%) believe that interest rates will trend downwards again within the year [1]. - The report emphasizes that the current market adjustments are likely temporary and not indicative of a long-term trend, with fundamental support for the bond market remaining intact [1][68]. Summary by Sections Domestic Economic and Policy Outlook - Investors have a neutral view on the intensity of future stimulus policies, with most expecting no significant surprises [2]. - There is a cautious outlook on new home sales in 2025, with the majority anticipating sales to remain flat or decline [2]. - Investors are divided on the impact of technological advancements on the economy, with many seeing a mixed effect due to the weakness in traditional sectors [2][43]. Overseas Economic Conditions - Nearly half of the investors believe that the U.S. economy in 2025 will not differ significantly from 2024, with a notable portion expressing uncertainty [3][22]. - There is a prevailing concern regarding the U.S. fiscal deficit, with many investors expecting it to exceed $2 trillion [3][25]. - The report notes a significant divergence in opinions regarding U.S. inflation, with 27% of investors perceiving increasing inflationary pressures [3][12]. Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Investors are showing a preference for relative value strategies, with an increased inclination towards cautious trading and a decrease in leverage [9]. - The report highlights a notable increase in the preference for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising risk aversion [9]. - The majority of investors expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to decline to the range of 4%-4.5% by the end of 2025 [6][33]. Credit Market Insights - There is a rising expectation for credit spreads to widen, particularly for shorter-duration bonds, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [7]. - Investors are increasingly cautious about long-term credit bonds, with a significant portion opting for shorter-duration investments [8]. Asset Allocation and Future Outlook - The report indicates a cautious stance among investors regarding the bond market, with a significant portion expecting it to remain range-bound [68]. - The anticipated increase in government bonds for 2025 is projected to be between 1-3 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [51]. - Investors are divided on the future trajectory of the Chinese CPI, with expectations ranging from stability to a mild increase [55].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The short-term fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are significantly influenced by the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, with a model indicating that without effective policy management, the RMB may experience greater volatility than observed [1][26] - A strong positive correlation exists between certain A-share stocks and the RMB exchange rate, suggesting potential investment opportunities if the RMB appreciates [2][28] - The report highlights that the US trade policy uncertainty index has a direct impact on the RMB/USD exchange rate, particularly when the index exceeds a certain threshold [18][27] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Research - The report discusses the impact of US trade policy uncertainty on the RMB exchange rate, emphasizing that this uncertainty has been a key factor in short-term fluctuations since October of the previous year [1][26] - A model was developed incorporating various factors such as government bond yield spreads and risk premiums to analyze the RMB exchange rate [1][23] RMB Exchange Rate and Risk Premium - The report notes that the correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the US-China 10-year government bond yield spread is strong, with a coefficient of 0.63 from August 2015 to January 2025 [5][9] - It identifies two key risk premium indicators in China: the private financing spread and the residential rental yield spread, both of which have shown a strong negative correlation with the RMB exchange rate [7][9] Impact of US Trade Policy - The US trade policy uncertainty index, which measures the frequency of discussions about trade uncertainty in major US newspapers, has shown a significant correlation with the RMB exchange rate, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty [15][18] - The report quantifies that when the trade policy uncertainty index exceeds 280, its correlation with the RMB/USD exchange rate increases significantly [18][27] Potential Factors for RMB Appreciation - The report identifies that a decline in internal risk premiums could lead to a trend of RMB appreciation, especially if the US economy underperforms and leads to monetary easing [2][28] - It also highlights that a significant number of A-share stocks have a strong positive correlation with the RMB exchange rate, indicating potential investment opportunities if the RMB strengthens [2][28]

证券研究报告 2025.02.23 再论中国资产的重估前景 刘刚，CFA 分析员 吴薇 分析员 王牧遥 联系人 SAC 执证编号：S0080524070001 wei3.wu@cicc.com.cn 在经历了节后两周由 DeepSeek 引发中国资产重估叙事带来的快速上涨后，上周市场继续上行并再创本轮行情以来新高。 其中，恒生科技指数继续大涨 6%，收复自 2021 年 12 月以来的所有失地；恒生指数上涨 4%，突破去年 10 月高点。板 块上，本周行情继续聚焦科技行业，信息科技（+10.6%）、医疗保健（+7.3%）与媒体娱乐（+6.6%）领涨，能源（-4.0%）、 材料（-3.0%）与必选消费（-0.8%）则领跌。 不过，经过近期持续上行后，若非周四晚阿里巴巴财报资本开支大超预期提供情绪上的接续，市场在上周前半周也显露 一些"疲态"：前四日总体震荡收跌，周四恒生科技一度回调 3%，与此同时南向也一度大幅流出，表现出一定获利了结 倾向。我们在上周报告《中国资产的重估？》中提示，静态看情绪和技术面都是透支的，在当前宏观叙事长期有待验证 但短期无法证伪的情况下，市场上行也需要不断的催化剂，上周阿里财报恰起到了 ...

宏观经济研究 2025.02.23 化债背景下的财政展望 邓巧锋 分析员 段玉柱 分析员 张文朗 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080521080004 yuzhu.duan@cicc.com.cn 展望今年财政政策，我们认为全年新增财政力度有望强于 2024 年，而且增量资源支持化债对经济有一定的积极影响。 而在关注财政政策逆周期调节的同时，或不应忽视财税政策改革的影响。此外，若要更大程度缓解地方或有债务负担， 我们认为或需适当延长城投转型时间表，缓释其经营性债务的再融资压力，同时增加对企业欠款化解的财力支持。具体 来看有以下几点值得关注。 新一轮化债政策可减少原有模式对地方财力的挤占，提升财政的逆周期调节作用。2024 年前期受到地方化债影响，一 般预算支出中多项支出进度偏慢，随着地方可用财力的逐步释放，我们认为原有易受挤占的领域支出有望得以支持。去 年底以来基建工地资金到位情况改善，或是体现之一。我们预计今年广义财政力度有望高于 2024 年，节奏上前置发力。 在财政阶段性加大逆周期调节力度之外，财税体系改革也在推进中，尤其是在严控新增地方隐性债务、加强财政预算绩 效管理的背景下，财政支出或持续呈有保有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Outperform" rating for major companies such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, Uber, and DoorDash, while a "Neutral" rating is assigned to eBay [3]. Core Insights - The overall US stock market exhibited a volatile trend in 4Q24, with high valuations and a generally flat fundamental outlook. The divergence in AI expectations is a key underlying factor. Most companies met or slightly exceeded expectations, but guidance for 1Q25 from some companies fell short of expectations. Major tech firms continue to invest heavily in AI, with significant capital expenditures indicating a strong commitment to AI development [4][5]. - The report highlights that the advertising market grew by 14.5% YoY in 4Q24, while cloud computing revenue from leading providers increased by 25.2% to $64.6 billion, although this was below market expectations. E-commerce in the US saw a 4.4% increase in retail sales, with European retail recovering and inflation easing [6][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The US stock market entered a high volatility phase in 4Q24, influenced by policy uncertainties and high valuation levels. The internet sector's revenue growth is expected to face challenges due to a high growth base and macroeconomic complexities [14][20]. Company Performance - Meta and Amazon were standout performers in terms of profit, with Meta benefiting from a one-time adjustment in management expenses and Amazon seeing strong performance in North American retail and advertising [26][30]. - The report notes that the capital expenditures of major internet companies have entered a "worry phase," where increased spending may lead to profit pressures amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions [5][14]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Major companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for AI, with Meta projecting $60-65 billion for 2025 (up 66-80% YoY) and Google estimating $75 billion (up 43% YoY). Amazon is expected to have annualized capital expenditures around $100 billion [5][30]. Earnings Forecasts - The report indicates that there have not been significant upward adjustments in earnings forecasts for 2025, reflecting a cautious outlook for revenue growth amid high bases and potential profit pressures from capital expenditure depreciation [28][30].