摘要 Q&A 近期 T 价格为何上涨？ 近期 T 价格的上涨主要受到三重利好因素的推动：出口改善、内需增长以及进 口矿的收缩。首先，出口方面，自去年（2024 年）10 月 30 日中国海关恢复氧 化锑的出口编码以来，国内拥有出口资质的企业陆续申请出口许可证，氧化锑 的出口逐步改善。根据海关数据，去年 11 月和 12 月我国分别出口氧化锑 776 吨和 1,571 吨，12 月环比增长 102%，恢复到管制前三年平均水平的 41%左右。 其次，内需方面，在阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装双重推动下需求增加。根据测 算，2023 年 T 下游消费结构中阻燃剂占比 50%，光伏玻璃占比 24%。以旧换新 • 中国氧化锑出口逐步改善，去年 12 月出口量环比增长 102%，恢复至管制 前三年平均水平的 41%左右，主要受益于企业积极申请出口许可证。 • 国内阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装推动氧化锑需求增加。阻燃剂占下游消费 50%，光伏玻璃占 24%。以旧换新政策和新能源项目并网截止日期前加速排 产，均利好需求。 • 进口矿收缩导致国内冶炼产量受限。去年 12 月铁矿进口环比减少 63%，内 外盘价差高企抬升进口成本，抑制国内 ...

中金公司 2025 年政府工作报告联合解读 20250305 政府将小幅提振国内需求放在首位，特别强调消费的重要性，包括供给侧和需 求侧的专项行动。例如，通过以旧换新等措施增加消费场景。此外，在结构转 型方面也有表述，如加大结构转型指数等。 2025 年政府工作报告的主要经济目标和政策支持力度是什么？ 2025 年政府工作报告设定了增长目标约为 5%，这一目标符合市场预期。此外， CPI 目标定为 2%左右，比往年略低，显示出务实的态度。财政政策方面，预算 提高了 4%，达到 1.6 万亿元；地方政府专项债从 3.9 万亿元提升至 4.4 万亿元， 增加了 5,000 亿元。超长期国债赤字为 1.3 万亿元，比去年增加 3,000 亿。货 币政策则保持适度降准降息，以灵活应对经济形势。 • 政府工作报告显示，2025 年财政政策更加积极，预算赤字率提高，地方政 府专项债和超长期国债均增加，货币政策保持适度宽松，通过降准降息灵 活应对经济形势，关注消费提振和结构转型。 • 房地产政策方面，政府强调推动市场止跌回稳，通过发行专项债支持地方 收储，扩大专项再贷款和商业贷款使用范围，显示出对房地产市场的重视， 但需关 ...

证券研究报告 2025.03.02 化工 基本面向好+估值低位，加配化工龙头正当时 SAC 执证编号：S0080522110003 SFC CE Ref：BVG980 tianhe.wang@cicc.com.cn 王天鹤 分析员 贾雄伟 分析员 裘孝锋 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080518090004 SFC CE Ref：BRF843 xiongwei.jia@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080521010004 SFC CE Ref：BRE717 xiaofeng.qiu@cicc.com.cn 82 91 100 109 118 127 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 沪深300 中金化工 行业动态 行业近况 本周基础化工板块下跌 0.27%，沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，基础化工板块 跑赢大盘 1.95 个百分点，涨跌幅居于所有板块第 12 位。 评论 我们认为目前化工行业面临以下四重利好因素： 一、两会召开在即，政策预期或强化供需优化逻辑。供给端，双碳目标下 《2024—2025 年节能降碳行动方案》严控炼油、乙烯等新增 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The rapid evolution of large language models (LLMs) like DeepSeek-R1 has garnered significant attention from investors, particularly in their application to quantitative strategies in industry rotation, style rotation, and market timing tasks [1][2] - DeepSeek-R1 has demonstrated stable excess returns in industry rotation tasks, outperforming the equal-weighted industry return by 22.3% since 2024 [4] - The report emphasizes the unique advantages of LLMs in industry allocation tasks compared to stock selection and market timing, as industry performance is more influenced by macro policies and industry conditions [4] Summary by Sections Large Language Models and Alternative Data - LLMs are built on deep learning techniques and can process vast amounts of unstructured text data, making them suitable for extracting investment signals from alternative data sources [11][12] - The growth of alternative data is significant, with projections indicating that global data volume will reach 175ZB by 2025, highlighting the potential for LLMs to analyze non-traditional data types [13] Applications of LLMs in Investment - LLMs can assist quantitative analysts in efficiently constructing code, significantly reducing the development cycle from strategy logic to implementation [2][29] - They can also help analysts quickly find and summarize recent research, forming expert knowledge bases for specific inquiries [2][29] - The integration of LLMs with alternative data sources, such as news and research reports, enhances their effectiveness in strategy development [2][29] Performance of DeepSeek-R1 - The 671 billion parameter version of DeepSeek-R1 has shown superior performance in various tasks, particularly in industry rotation, with a stable excess return of 22.3% since 2024 [4] - The model's performance in size rotation strategies has a win rate of 54.33%, yielding an excess return of over 12% [4] - Market timing strategies have also yielded an excess return of approximately 18% since 2024, although with slightly less stability [4] Limitations of LLMs - Despite their rapid development, LLMs face limitations such as knowledge hallucination, randomness, memory constraints, and data leakage, which can impact the reliability of quantitative strategies [5] - The report highlights the need for caution regarding the accuracy of outputs generated by LLMs, particularly in high-stakes investment contexts [5][43] Future Trends - The report discusses the ongoing evolution of LLMs, emphasizing the importance of cross-modal capabilities and the integration of various data types to enhance their application in investment strategies [26][27]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Economic activity is expected to slow down marginally due to the policy window period and external disturbances such as the Spring Festival and high base effects from the previous year [1] - Industrial production growth is projected to decline to approximately 5.2% year-on-year for January-February 2025, down from 6.2% in December 2024 [2] - Consumer spending shows moderate growth, with retail sales growth expected to be around 3.4% year-on-year, reflecting a slight decline compared to the previous quarter [3] - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to remain stable at 3.2% for January-February 2025, with infrastructure investment expected to grow around 10% [4] - Real estate sales growth has narrowed, with a year-on-year increase of 2% in major cities, indicating a lag in the transmission from sales to investment [5] - Export growth is expected to decline to approximately 3.0% year-on-year, influenced by higher base effects and tariff disturbances [6] Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Economic activities are expected to be impacted by the policy window period and seasonal factors, leading to a potential slowdown in growth [1] - The industrial production growth rate is projected to decrease due to high base effects from the previous year and the timing of the Spring Festival [2] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is showing moderate growth, with retail sales growth lower than previous holiday periods, indicating a need for further policy support [3] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to hold steady, with infrastructure investment showing signs of recovery [4] Real Estate - Real estate sales have shown a decrease in growth rate, with a significant drop in land transaction volumes, indicating a lag in investment recovery [5] Exports - Export growth is projected to decline, influenced by external factors such as tariffs and base effects from the previous year [6]

证券研究报告 2025.03.03 AI 智道（6）：AI+金融有望迎来规模化拐点 于钟海 分析员 魏鹳霏 分析员 李亚达 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080518070011 SFC CE Ref：BOP246 SAC 执证编号：S0080523060019 SFC CE Ref：BSX734 guanfei.wei@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080522070002 SFC CE Ref：BTM451 yada.li@cicc.com.cn 62 81 100 119 138 157 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 沪深300 中金软件及服务 中金一级行业：科技 资料来源：Wind，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部 更多作者及其他信息请见文末披露页 我们认为在技术可用性、数据完备性与付费确定性三重共振下，AI+金融已 迈向全域赋能的新周期，智能化重构带来的产业价值重估机遇亟待关注。 AI技术平权持续，金融IT行业具备明确赋能场景，有望实现"工具赋能" 向"智能重构"跃迁。2023 年金融机构科技投入 3558.2 亿元，其中央国 企占据中坚力量 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or currency involved. Core Insights - The Japanese yen has appreciated over 4% against the US dollar since the beginning of 2025, making it the strongest currency among G10 and Asian currencies [1][8] - The appreciation of the yen is primarily driven by trading factors related to the narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan, rather than reflecting genuine demand from Japan [2][11] - The underlying reasons for the yen's appreciation include rising inflation in Japan, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and the resulting upward pressure on Japanese bond yields [2][18] Summary by Sections Yen Appreciation Factors - The yen's appreciation is largely attributed to speculative trading by foreign investors during non-Japanese trading hours, indicating a lack of genuine demand from Japan [2][12] - Japan's inflation rate reached 4.0% year-on-year in January 2025, the highest among major developed economies, driven by both cost-push and demand-pull factors [2][18] Capital Flows - There is a persistent net outflow of funds from Japan, with the trade balance showing a deficit of approximately 2.7 trillion yen in January 2025 [3][27] - The financial account indicates continued capital outflows, with Japanese investors increasingly investing in foreign stocks, particularly in the US [32][37] Future Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - In the short term, the yen may appreciate due to trading factors, but long-term sustained appreciation is unlikely due to structural capital outflows from Japan [40][43] - Historical patterns suggest that significant yen appreciation typically requires economic weakness in the US or global risks [40][43] Interest Rate Expectations - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates, with a potential terminal rate around 1.5% [22][40] - The market is pricing in limited further increases in Japanese interest rates, which may not support substantial yen appreciation [43] Speculative Trading Impact - The current net short positions in the yen are limited, suggesting that a significant reversal leading to sharp yen appreciation is unlikely [5][45]

全球资金流向监测 证券研究报告 2025.03.01 南向创 2021 年初以来最大流入 刘刚，CFA 分析员 吴薇 分析员 王牧遥 联系人 SAC 执证编号：S0080512030003 SFC CE Ref：AVH867 kevin.liu@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080123060036 muyao.wang@cicc.com.cn 本周焦点：主动外资流出收窄，被动外资流入小幅放缓；南向流入扩大 本周资金面值得注意的变化是：1）EPFR 数据显示，截至本周三（2 月 26 日），主动外资继续流出中国市场，被动外资 流入小幅放缓；2）互联互通方面，北向资金日均成交规模较上周增加，南向资金加速流入，周度流入规模创 2021 年 1 月以来新高；3）全球股票、债券与货币市场加速流入；4）美股流入扩大，新兴流出扩大。 国内资金面，南向资金加速流入。本周南向资金流入继续大幅增至 749.7 亿港元，创沪深港通开通后周度流入规模次高 1，仅次于 2021 年 1 月 22 日当周，单日净流入均达到百亿港元以上。整体上，本周南向成交占比维持在 30%，南向持 股市值则占港股主板总市值约 10%。 ...

证券研究报告 2025.03.03 海外策略 美国增长走弱的"真相" 刘刚，CFA 分析员 杨萱庭 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080512030003 SFC CE Ref：AVH867 kevin.liu@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524070028 xuanting.yang@cicc.com.cn 2025 年春节以来，美股在全球市场中表现垫底，与港股的强势形成鲜明对比，成长风格的纳斯达克指数更是以 3%的跌 幅落后，一改 2024 年"一枝独秀"的强劲势头，AI科技龙头如亚马逊（-10%）、谷歌（-15%）和特斯拉（-20%）等也 出现大幅回撤，仅英伟达（7%）和苹果（6%）小幅走高。科技股不仅是美股的主要支撑，对美国经济和全球资金能否再 平衡到其他市场也有"牵一发而动全身"的重要影响（《本轮牛市的三大支柱》）。正因如此，近期科技龙头的下跌才引发 广泛关注，担心持续两年的行情是否就此终结。恰逢近期部分经济数据走弱，关税风险挥之不去，都加大了市场的担忧。 我们其实在 2024 年 12 月 8 日发布的《美股还有多少空间？》中就已提示需要关注短期"涨出来的风险"，也是基于一 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Outperform" [9] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has been under pressure due to a loose supply-demand balance, primarily driven by supply factors. Despite the price decline, coal prices remain at a historically moderate to high level [3][12] - Domestic coal production is at a historical high, with significant recovery in output observed post the Spring Festival, despite weak price conditions [27][39] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in demand as coal consumption rises in the latter half of Q2 2025, contingent on potential production cuts materializing [3][5] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The supply of thermal coal has been relatively stable, with production levels remaining high despite declining prices. As of February 28, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal fell to 699 CNY/ton, a 9% year-to-date decline [4][13] - The report notes that while domestic demand for electricity and heating coal has been lackluster, industrial demand, particularly from steel and chemical sectors, shows resilience with a year-on-year increase in iron production of approximately 1.7% and a 10% increase in chemical coal demand [39] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report highlights that the coal supply remains sticky in the short term due to local economic and employment considerations, making large-scale production cuts unlikely [5][63] - Current coal inventories are at a historical high of around 600 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 40-60 million tons. However, this increase alone is not expected to dictate coal price trends, as seasonal demand may lead to inventory reduction [50][51] Valuation and Recommendations - The report suggests that some high-cost domestic and international coal companies may face financial losses in Q1 2025, presenting a potential opportunity for investment in competitive cost leaders such as Shaanxi Coal and Coal Energy [6][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring cost structures, as the average coal production cost has risen significantly, which may lead to financial pressures on companies [69][70]