Accessible version 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 The Flow Show ABB, ABC, ABD, AI & BIG Scores on the Doors: YTD gold 38.0%, global stocks 25.4%, bitcoin 23.0%, US stocks 12.0%, IG bonds 9.9%, HY bonds 9.4%, govt bonds 7.6%, commodities 3.7%, cash 3.0%, US dollar -10.1%, oil -13.2%. Zeitgeist I: "Fed cutting at highs…I'm staying long stocks until we start worrying about the midterms next spring." Zeitgeist II: "Europe was the spring trade, Chinese stocks have been the summer trade, and Japan will be the autum ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment with institutional clients being net sellers while private clients have shown net buying behavior [5][7][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights that small cap inflows have continued, with clients showing a preference for small cap stocks over mid caps, while large caps also saw some buying activity [9][25]. - Private clients have turned net sellers for the first time this year, with a rolling four-week average of equity flows turning negative [9][20]. - Institutional clients have been net buyers for six consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak since late 2022, while hedge funds have also shown buying activity [9][20]. - The report notes that corporate client buybacks have accelerated, surpassing typical seasonal levels for the first time in ten weeks [9]. Summary by Client Type - **Institutional Clients**: The largest net sellers post-crisis, with cumulative flows showing significant outflows [5][7]. - **Private Clients**: Have been the only cumulative net buyers year-to-date, but recent trends indicate a shift to net selling [9][20]. - **Hedge Funds**: Showed a buying trend for the second consecutive week, contrasting with the selling behavior of private clients [9][20]. Summary by Sector - **Technology, Consumer Services, and Staples**: These sectors saw the most buying activity from clients [9]. - **Industrials, Financials, and Utilities**: Experienced the largest outflows, with utilities facing near-record outflows in recent weeks [9][20]. - **Equity ETFs**: Clients favored growth ETFs over value ETFs for the first time in six weeks, indicating a shift in investment strategy [9]. Summary by Size Segment - **Small and Micro Caps**: Continued to attract inflows, while mid caps saw outflows [9][25]. - **Large Caps**: Also experienced buying activity, indicating a diversified interest across market capitalizations [9][25]. Summary by Investment Style - **Growth vs. Value**: Growth ETFs have seen greater net flows compared to value ETFs, suggesting a preference for growth-oriented investments [9].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook on gold and suggests long positions in gold, bonds, and sectors that can outpace China, while recommending short positions in sectors that may face inflationary pressures [2][19][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the highest bond yields in decades, with UK long bond yields at 5.6%, France at 4.4%, Japan at 3.2%, and the US testing 5%, indicating a shift in financial conditions and potential implications for risk assets [2][19]. - It draws parallels to the Nixon era, suggesting that political pressures may lead to easing financial conditions, which could create a pre-election boom and affect market dynamics [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring payroll data and Treasury yields as indicators for risk asset performance, with a strong payroll report and falling yields being the most bullish scenario [3][19]. Summary by Sections Market Flows - Weekly flows show significant inflows into cash ($51.8 billion), bonds ($22.2 billion), and stocks ($17.6 billion), with gold also seeing inflows of $6.5 billion [13][18]. - BofA private clients have a significant allocation in equities (64.1%) and are extending duration in their bond holdings [15][57]. Economic Indicators - The report notes a potential weakening in US economic data, with construction spending down 2.8% year-over-year, which may influence Federal Reserve policy [19][26]. - It discusses the implications of rising bond yields and the stability of bank stocks, suggesting that the next significant move in bond yields is likely to be downward [19][20]. Historical Context - The report references the 1970s as a historical analog for current market conditions, highlighting the volatility and shifts in leadership among asset classes during that period [20][28]. - It suggests that investors should focus on sectors that can thrive in a high-inflation environment, drawing lessons from past market behaviors [20][28]. Sector Performance - The report indicates that small-cap and value stocks outperformed during the 1970s, suggesting a potential similar trend could emerge in the current environment [20][28]. - It highlights the performance of the "Magnificent 7" stocks, drawing comparisons to the "Nifty Fifty" of the past, indicating a potential for similar market dynamics [20][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold and silver, raising long-term price targets for gold to $2,500 per ounce and silver to $35 per ounce, reflecting increases of +25% and +30% respectively [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the conditions driving the recent strength in gold prices are expected to persist, including factors such as the US structural deficit, inflationary pressures from deglobalization, perceived threats to the independence of the US central bank, and global geopolitical tensions [3]. - Central banks are projected to continue purchasing gold at elevated levels, with a calculation indicating that over 11,000 tonnes of gold would need to be acquired to achieve a 30% gold holding in total reserves, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold prices [2][12]. - The average gold price forecast for the next six years has been increased by +6% to $3,049 per ounce, while the average silver price forecast has been raised by +7.5% to $38 per ounce [3]. Summary by Sections Price Forecasts - Long-term real gold and silver prices have been raised to $2,500 per ounce and $35 per ounce respectively, with near-term forecasts for gold at $3,356 per ounce in 2025 and $3,659 per ounce in 2026 [3][7]. - The report anticipates a short to medium-term target for gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce [3]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks are expected to exert upward pressure on gold prices through continued purchases, with a significant amount of gold needed to reach optimal portfolio allocations [2][12]. - The report notes that central banks with less than 30% of their reserves in gold will need to purchase a total of 24,665 tonnes to achieve this target, indicating a long-term demand for gold [2][21]. Company Ratings and NAV - The report indicates that net asset values (NAVs) and price objectives (POs) for North American precious metals companies have increased, with an average NAV increase of around 12% and POs up by approximately 11% [4]. - Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is highlighted as the top pick due to its strong track record and growth potential [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment sentiment with the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 6.0, down from 6.1, suggesting a cautious approach to market conditions [7][41]. Core Insights - There has been a record inflow of $97 billion to global bond funds over the past four weeks, with year-to-date (YTD) inflows for bonds annualizing at a record $700 billion, primarily driven by investment-grade (IG) bonds [1][3]. - The report highlights significant inflows to IG bonds, totaling $57.4 billion over the past four weeks, marking the largest inflow since July 2020 [2][11]. - In contrast, there have been notable outflows from European equities, with a $2.3 billion outflow, the largest in four months, and a continued trend of outflows from UK equities for 18 consecutive weeks [2][17]. Summary by Sections Asset Class Flows - Equities experienced a $3.0 billion inflow, with $10.4 billion inflow to ETFs and $7.3 billion outflow from mutual funds [16]. - Bonds saw inflows of $23.0 billion over the past week, continuing a streak of 17 weeks of positive inflows [17]. - Precious metals recorded a slight inflow of $0.1 billion over the past two weeks [16]. Investment Strategies - BofA private clients have allocated 64.1% of their assets under management (AUM) to stocks, 18.1% to bonds, and 10.7% to cash, indicating a strong preference for equities [3][29]. - The report notes that BofA private clients have been buying industrials, high-yield (HY) bonds, and bank loan ETFs while selling energy, healthcare, and staples [3][23]. Market Indicators - The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator reflects a neutral market sentiment, suggesting that investor sentiment is currently balanced, with no extreme bullish or bearish positions [41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including payrolls and inflation data, which could influence market dynamics [1].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the global economy, with a net 41% of investors expecting a weaker global economy, up from 31% last month, and a net 31% anticipating a weaker Asian economy, slightly down from 26% last month [2][4]. Core Insights - Despite a moderation in earnings outlook, market return expectations remain resilient, with 90% of investors expecting higher levels for Asia ex-Japan equities over the next year, as consensus earnings estimates are not seen as stretched, allowing for potential upgrades [3][23]. - The sentiment towards China has improved, with a net 3% expecting a weaker economy, a significant improvement from 10% last month, driven by expectations of further policy support from Beijing to combat deflation [4][25]. - Japan is the most favored market, with expectations of a rate hike before March next year, while China has moved to the second spot, followed by Taiwan and Korea, with India falling to the bottom due to tariff concerns [5][51]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Growth expectations have slightly pulled back due to concerns over the US labor market and tariffs, with a net 41% of investors expecting a weaker global economy [2][14]. - Long-term views on China remain cautious, with 60% of investors believing in a structural de-rating of China equities [27][28]. Country Allocation - Japan is favored significantly, with corporate reforms and currency movements seen as key to its equity prospects [5][40]. - China has gained favor, particularly in sectors like AI and semiconductors, while India is focused on infrastructure and consumption [58][60]. Sector Preferences - In Asia ex-Japan, there is a growth bias with overweight positions in tech hardware, semiconductors, software, and financial services, while materials, autos, energy, and real estate are avoided [6][53]. - In Japan, banks are the most preferred sector, benefiting from higher rates, followed by semiconductors [7][48]. Investment Themes - Within China, AI and semiconductors are popular investment themes, while in India, infrastructure is the top focus [58][60]. - The semiconductor cycle outlook has moderated, with a net 20% of investors expecting a stronger cycle in the next 12 months [66].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a broad-based buying trend across various client groups and sectors, with a particular emphasis on institutional-led buying [1][11][19]. Core Insights - Financials experienced significant inflows, marking the fourth-largest since 2008 and the largest since February, with a notable increase in institutional client purchases [3][11][14]. - Clients showed a preference for growth over value, particularly in the technology sector, which outperformed most other sectors [3][11]. - The report highlights a shift in client behavior, with private clients becoming net buyers for the fifth consecutive week, contrasting with institutional clients who have been net sellers post-crisis [9][19]. Summary by Relevant Sections Client Flows - Institutional clients were the biggest net sellers post-crisis, while private clients have recently turned net buyers [7][9]. - Hedge funds showed small net buying activity after a previous selling trend, while corporate buybacks have slightly accelerated but remain below typical seasonal levels [11][19]. Sector Performance - Financials saw the largest inflows, followed by Health Care, Industrials, and Energy, while Communication Services experienced the largest outflows [11][16]. - Cyclicals recorded their biggest weekly inflows since January 2019, indicating a strong interest in these sectors [11][14]. Market Capitalization - All market cap segments (large, mid, and small caps) saw inflows, with large caps leading the way [22][26]. - The report notes that clients sold equity ETFs for the first time in nine weeks, with outflows across various sectors, particularly in Staples and Real Estate [11][19]. ETF Trends - Technology ETFs had the strongest inflows, while Consumer Staples ETFs faced significant outflows [29][30]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of ETF flows, indicating a preference for mid-cap and broad market ETFs over large and small-cap ETFs [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "sell" signal triggered by a cash level of 3.9%, which is below the threshold of 4.0% [19][90]. Core Insights - The August Global Fund Manager Survey shows the highest bullish sentiment since February 2025, with 68% of investors predicting a soft landing for the global economy [3][7]. - There is a notable rotation in asset allocation, with a shift from European equities to emerging markets, which now holds a net 37% overweight position, the highest since February 2023 [5][26]. - The sentiment regarding AI's impact on productivity is strong, with 55% of investors believing that AI is already boosting productivity [75][79]. Summary by Sections Macro & Policy - 68% of investors predict a soft landing, while only 5% are positioned for a hard landing [3][7]. - Rate cut optimism is at its highest since December 2024, with 54% of respondents expecting the next Fed Chair to resort to quantitative easing or yield curve control [3][46]. Risks - The primary tail risk identified is a trade war triggering a global recession, cited by 29% of investors [54][61]. - The perception of inflation risks has increased, with 27% of investors concerned about inflation preventing Fed rate cuts [61]. Asset Allocation - Global equity allocation is at a net 14% overweight, the highest since February 2025, with a significant rotation towards utilities and energy sectors [5][20]. - A record 91% of investors view US stocks as overvalued, while emerging markets are seen as undervalued by a net 49% [67]. Crypto & Gold - Only 9% of investors have exposure to crypto, with an average allocation of 3.2%, while 48% have exposure to gold, averaging 4.1% [6][71]. - The total portfolio exposure to crypto is just 0.3%, and to gold is 2.2% after adjusting for those without allocations [6][71]. Investor Sentiment - The overall sentiment regarding the global economy has slightly deteriorated, with a net 41% of investors expecting a weaker economy in the next 12 months [36][97]. - Expectations for higher inflation have risen, with a net 18% of investors anticipating an increase in global CPI [42][100]. AI Perception - 52% of investors do not believe that AI stocks are in a bubble, while 41% think they are [79]. - The belief that AI is already increasing productivity has grown from 42% to 55% since July [75].

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a BUY rating for Xiaomi Corporation with a price objective of HKD 69.00, while the current price is HKD 54.00 [4][5]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's 2Q operating profit is expected to reach CNY 9.6 billion, reflecting a 3% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 66% increase year-over-year. Revenue is projected at CNY 114 billion, a 3% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 29% increase year-over-year, primarily due to slower smartphone shipments. However, gross margin is anticipated to grow by 0.3 percentage points to 23.1% due to a higher sales mix of IoT products [1][15]. - The report highlights a robust growth in IoT revenue, expected to increase by 38% year-over-year, driven by subsidies, mid-year promotions, and the peak season for air conditioners. This growth is seen as a counterbalance to the weakness in smartphone sales [2][12]. - Demand for electric vehicles (EVs) remains strong, with Xiaomi shipping 81,000 units in 2Q. The gross margin for EVs is expected to expand to 25% due to higher average selling prices. Despite supply bottlenecks, demand is stable, indicating a strong brand image and sustainability [3][13]. Summary by Sections 2Q Earnings Preview - Expected real operating profit: CNY 9.6 billion (-3% QoQ, +66% YoY) - Revenue forecast: CNY 114 billion (+3% QoQ, +29% YoY) - Anticipated gross margin: 23.1% (+0.3 ppt QoQ) [1][15]. Smartphone and IoT Performance - Global smartphone shipments: 42.4 million units (+1% QoQ, flat YoY) - China shipments: 10.4 million units (-22% QoQ, +4% YoY) - IoT revenue growth forecast: 38% YoY [2][12]. Electric Vehicle Outlook - EV shipments in 2Q: 81,000 units - Expected gross margin for EVs: 25% - July shipments: over 30,000 units, indicating strong demand despite supply issues [3][13]. Adjusted Earnings Estimates - 2025E adjusted earnings raised by 4% - Fine-tuning of 2026-27E estimates to reflect current business outlook [4][16].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish sentiment towards gold and cryptocurrencies, while expressing caution towards equities and bonds, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and economic conditions [1][3][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in investor sentiment, with a notable increase in global equity allocation from a net 4% overweight to over 25% overweight, indicating a bullish outlook on stocks [14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of rates and earnings per share (EPS) as the primary drivers for risk assets, suggesting that other factors are secondary [13]. - The report notes that the US dollar is in a bear market, with expectations of a revaluation of gold reserves by central banks to alleviate domestic debt burdens, which could lead to a bullish outlook for gold in the coming decade [13][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Investor probability of an economic hard landing has fallen to 5% or below, suggesting a more optimistic economic outlook [14]. - The report indicates a consensus among clients that lower rates will lead to higher stock prices, with a 95% probability of a Fed rate cut in September [14]. Market Performance - The report details the performance of various asset classes year-to-date, with gold at 30.3%, bitcoin at 25.5%, and stocks at 12.6%, while cash and commodities lag significantly [1]. - The report notes that the Russian ruble has appreciated by 42%, making it the best-performing currency against the US dollar in 2025 [2][15]. Investment Flows - There has been a significant inflow of $106.7 billion into cash, marking the largest inflow since January 2025, alongside $28.5 billion into bonds, indicating a cautious approach among investors [11][40]. - The report highlights that private clients have been buying utilities and bank loans while selling technology and healthcare stocks, reflecting a shift in investment preferences [12][46]. Sector Analysis - The report indicates that the concentration of returns in US stocks, particularly in technology, is expected to continue until credit spreads widen, which may signal a shift in market dynamics [4][20]. - The report also notes that defense and tech stocks are seen as relative losers in the current geopolitical climate, particularly in the context of the Middle East [2][4].