Investment Rating - The investment rating for Pinduoduo Inc. is NEUTRAL with a price objective of USD 120.00, while the current price is USD 102.98 [1][7]. Core Insights - Pinduoduo's 1Q25 results were disappointing, with transaction revenues growing only 6% year-over-year, a significant drop from 33% in the previous quarter, and a 45% decline in non-GAAP profits [1][3]. - The company is adjusting its revenue and profit forecasts due to increased pressure on merchants, lowering 2025-26 revenue estimates by 4-6% and non-GAAP net profit estimates by 20-25% [2][12]. - Pinduoduo's management has indicated that factors affecting earnings include reduced trade-in subsidy benefits, tariff hikes impacting its largest market (the US), and proactive merchant fee reductions [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenues for 1Q25 grew 10% year-over-year to RMB 95.7 billion, which was 6% below market expectations [3]. - Marketing revenues grew by 15% year-over-year, while transaction revenues grew by only 6%, down from 33% in the previous quarter [3]. - Non-GAAP operating margin decreased to 19.1%, down from 25.3% in 4Q24 and 32.9% in 1Q24, primarily due to reduced high-margin domestic revenues [3]. Revenue and Profit Estimates - The company has revised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to 9% year-over-year, with a non-GAAP net profit forecast of RMB 99.1 billion, reflecting a margin of 23.1% [2][4]. - The adjusted price objective is based on a target P/E multiple of 10x for 2026 estimated non-GAAP EPADS of USD 12.0 [2][15]. Market Position and Strategy - Pinduoduo is recognized as the second-largest e-commerce platform in China by active buyers and is expanding its market share in the online retail segment [12][11]. - The company is investing RMB 100 billion in an ecosystem support program over the next three years to bolster consumer demand and merchant services [2][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the specific company is reiterated as BUY with a price objective of HK$155, down from HK$180 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a solid first quarter with total revenues growing 18% year-over-year to RMB86.6 billion, exceeding consensus estimates [4]. - The core local commerce (CLC) revenues also grew 18% year-over-year, driven by a 22% increase in delivery revenues and a 20% increase in commissions [4]. - However, competition has intensified in the second quarter, leading to a forecasted slowdown in growth and profitability due to increased spending to maintain market share [2][3]. - The company is committing to a three-year RMB100 billion ecosystem upgrade program to support high-quality growth for merchants and improve rider benefits [2]. - The overseas expansion into the Middle East is progressing better than expected, with plans to enter Brazil with a US$1 billion budget [2]. Financial Estimates - Adjusted net income is projected to grow from RMB13.9 billion in 2023 to RMB54.4 billion by 2027, with a significant increase in EPS from 2.23 in 2023 to 9.00 in 2027 [5]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB43.6 billion, reflecting a revenue growth of 14% [3]. - The operating margin for the CLC segment improved to 21% in the first quarter, up from 18% in the previous year [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the multi-category service eCommerce sector in China, providing a wide range of services including food delivery, travel, and lifestyle services [13][14]. - The large user base is seen as a competitive advantage, with opportunities for cross-selling across high-frequency categories [14]. - The company’s strong execution amid intense competition and growth potential from overseas expansion are highlighted as key strengths [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for certain asset classes, particularly European equities and gold, while maintaining short positions in oil and the US dollar [1][2][3]. Core Insights - Trend followers are currently long on gold and have increased their long positions in the Mexican peso (MXN), while remaining short on the US dollar [1][2]. - European equity indices, particularly the EURO STOXX 50, have seen significant long positions from CTAs despite recent declines, suggesting potential for future growth [3]. - The report highlights a shift in trend strength for US indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100, which are now showing positive short to medium-term trends, indicating potential buying opportunities [3]. Summary by Sections Systematic Flows Monitor - CTAs are maintaining short positions in the US dollar while increasing long positions in gold and MXN, with a notable correlation of -0.72 between the DXY index and the SG CTA benchmark [1]. - The report notes that trend followers are likely to reduce USD shorts against EUR and GBP in the coming week [1]. Trend Following (CTA) Model - The CTA model indicates a long position in the EURO STOXX 50 with a trend strength of +65%, projecting potential growth in median to bullish price paths [26]. - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 are showing positive trend strength, which could lead to increased buying from CTAs [3]. Commodities - Trend followers are holding long positions in gold and soybean oil while maintaining shorts in oil, with the report suggesting minimal pressure for gold unwinds [2][3]. - The report indicates that CTAs may cover aluminum shorts and are stretched long in soybean oil and short in soybean meal [2]. Foreign Exchange (FX) - The report highlights long positions in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with respective strengths of 68% and 79%, while maintaining short positions in USD/JPY and USD/MXN [28]. - The trend following model suggests potential for further growth in these currency pairs based on historical data [28]. Leveraged and Inverse ETFs - The analysis indicates that US-based ETFs could be responsible for approximately $831 million and $2.0 billion in S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 buying (selling), respectively, per 1% move in the underlying index [85]. - Total AUM in S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 leveraged and inverse ETFs are approximately $17 billion and $36 billion, respectively [86].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US-China deal on May 12 significantly reduced the effective tariff rate, leading to expectations of increased imports, which may support inventories and capital expenditures [8][15] - Stagflation risks have diminished, although inflation remains a concern, with substantial inflation anticipated in the pipeline [15][17] - The labor market is expected to remain stable, with a lower risk of imminent payroll drops due to the anticipated rebound in imports [20][21] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report anticipates solid GDP growth in 2Q 2025 at +2.0%, a revision from +0.9%, while final domestic sales are expected to be weak at -0.3% [45] - The core PCE inflation is projected to peak at 3.5% y/y in 4Q 2025, with expectations of a decline to 2.4% by the end of 2026 due to weaker aggregate demand [46] Labor Market - Job growth has stabilized, with a gradual increase in the unemployment rate expected, peaking at 4.6% in 2Q-3Q 2026 due to immigration restrictions tightening labor supply [47] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement back-loaded rate cuts, with a forecast of 100 basis points in cuts during 2H 2026 as inflation peaks and demand-driven disinflation takes precedence [48] Import Dynamics - The US-China deal is likely to lead to a surge in imports, which may alleviate concerns about inventory shortages and support capital expenditures [15][16] - There is a possibility of overflowing warehouses instead of empty shelves due to firms front-loading holiday-related imports [9][15] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The May and June inflation data are expected to reflect the impact of tariffs, with customs revenues tracking a 55% m/m increase in May [18][22] - Consumer spending may be more resilient than previously forecasted if inflation pressures are less severe than expected [19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the Power & Utilities industry Core Insights - The macro environment is a significant focus, particularly regarding the recent House reconciliation bill and its implications for tax credits and economic outlook [2] - Affordability, reliability, and financing are critical themes, with rising concerns about customer bills and regulatory pressures [3] - Policy uncertainty is prevalent, especially concerning clean technology and the implications of the House bill on project timelines and investment strategies [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Bank of America Power, Utilities, & Clean Tech Conference will host 43 companies, focusing on themes such as nuclear energy, data centers, and clean energy tax credits [1] Macro Environment - The recent House reconciliation bill is expected to influence strategies around tax credits and construction projects, with discussions on inflation and demand growth [2] Affordability and Reliability - There is increasing pressure on regulatory landscapes due to affordability concerns, necessitating higher capital expenditures for new generation and system upgrades [3] Clean Technology - Investor focus will be on how developers navigate the House bill, particularly regarding safe harbor strategies and utility-scale backlogs [4] Company-Specific Questions - Companies are expected to clarify their capex forecasts, regulatory approval statuses, and the impact of tax credits on their financial outlooks [10][11][12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the semiconductor industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report highlights the competition between NVLink and UALink, with NVLink currently holding a significant advantage in AI scale-up interconnect technology. UALink is seen as a step forward for the non-NVDA ecosystem, aiming to catch up to NVLink's capabilities starting in 2027 [1][3][24]. - NVLink Fusion is noted to open up approximately $12 billion in total addressable market (TAM) for Nvidia in networking attached to custom accelerators, expanding its reach in the AI compute market [4][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - UALink aims to compete with NVLink's dominance in AI scale-up interconnect technology, with both technologies enabling the connection of AI accelerators through fast, low-latency networking [1]. - UALink is generally 1-2 generations behind NVLink but represents a significant advancement for the non-NVDA ecosystem [1][3]. UALink Overview - UALink utilizes AMD's Infinity Fabric technology as its standard protocol, allowing for shared memory coherence between CPUs and GPUs [2][26]. - The UALink Consortium, founded in May 2024, oversees the development of UALink technology, with founding members including major players like AMD, Broadcom, and Intel [25]. NVLink vs. UALink Comparison - UALink 1.0 supports up to 800 GB/s bandwidth per accelerator, while NVLink 5.0 supports 1.8 TB/s, indicating that NVLink maintains a significant performance edge [3][31]. - By the time UALink-compatible hardware is expected to launch in 2026-27, NVLink 6.0 is anticipated to offer even greater bandwidth capabilities, further extending NVDA's lead [33][34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating with a BofA Bull & Bear Indicator reading of 3.7, which suggests a neutral sentiment in the market [70][71]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in asset performance, with gold showing a year-to-date return of -15.2%, while US Treasuries have a return of 4.5% [1][3]. - The report suggests that the current environment presents a cyclical buying opportunity for long-term government bonds, particularly as yields exceed 5% [3][20]. - The report notes that inflation has increased by 25% over the past five years, impacting monetary and fiscal policies significantly [18][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date performance shows gold at -15.2%, stocks at 4.8%, and government bonds at 4.5% [1]. - The 10-year rolling return from Treasuries is currently negative, reflecting a challenging environment for fixed income [3][4]. Investment Flows - Recent flows indicate $25.0 billion into bonds and $16.1 billion into cash, while equities experienced a $4.1 billion outflow [13][49]. - Private clients have shown a preference for utilities and staples, with a notable shift away from TIPS and industrials [15][56]. Economic Indicators - The US federal budget deficit has averaged 9% of GDP over the past five years, with projections indicating continued deficits [18][36]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the yield spread between US Treasuries and corporate bonds, which is currently at a historical tightness of 20 basis points [1][31]. Strategic Recommendations - The report advocates for a contrarian approach, suggesting that being long on long-term bonds may be a profitable strategy in the current market [3][19]. - It also highlights the potential for significant returns in international stocks and gold, with respective year-to-date returns of 13% and 25% [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xiaomi Corporation with a price objective of HKD 63.00, while the current price is HKD 53.20 [1][7]. Core Insights - Xiaomi is focusing on high-end performance and branding through the development of in-house System on Chip (SoC) technology, with significant investments planned for the next decade [1]. - The YU7 SUV is positioned as a high-performance vehicle with competitive specifications, aiming for substantial shipment volumes in the coming years [2][15]. Financial Estimates - The adjusted net income is projected to grow from CNY 19.273 billion in 2023 to CNY 46.872 billion by 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase significantly, with a year-on-year change of 605.5% in 2023, followed by steady growth in subsequent years [3][9]. - Free cash flow per share is anticipated to rise from CNY 1.41 in 2023 to CNY 1.92 by 2027, indicating improving cash generation capabilities [3][9]. Product Developments - The in-house SoC XRING O1, based on a 3nm process, will be featured in the Xiaomi 15S Pro and Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra, showcasing Xiaomi's commitment to high-end technology [1][14]. - The YU7 SUV features a 96.3 kWh battery with a driving range of 835 km, and it is equipped with advanced safety features and a new driving training program [2][20]. Market Positioning - Xiaomi's strategy includes a significant investment of CNY 50 billion over ten years in its SoC business, aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the high-end market [1][12]. - The YU7 is expected to account for 24% of Xiaomi's electric vehicle shipments in 2025, highlighting its importance in the company's EV strategy [19].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but emphasizes the importance of differentiating between crowded trades with positive catalysts and those with negative catalysts [30][35]. Core Insights - The report relaunches the "Global Positioning in Stocks" to include "Equity Flow," which measures the dollar value of stocks bought and sold each month, and combines this data with Triple Momentum to identify potential investment opportunities [1][30]. - The analysis includes four stock screens: Crowded Positives, Under-owned Negatives, Crowded Negatives, and Under-owned Positives, which help in identifying consensus and contrarian opportunities [2][35]. - The report highlights that stocks with high ownership and overweight positions can outperform for extended periods if their fundamentals remain attractive, while under-owned stocks with positive catalysts may present investment opportunities [30][31]. Summary by Sections Active Exposure – Positioning versus Benchmark - The analysis includes over 5,647 active long-only funds managing more than US$29 trillion in equities, comparing their stock holdings against specific benchmarks to establish relative overweight and underweight positions [16][45]. Equity Flow – Long-only Funds - The report calculates the value of shares bought and sold by long-only funds each month, using Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) to approximate transaction prices [22][23]. Fund Ownership - Fund Ownership is calculated as the proportion of relevant active long-only funds that own a stock, providing insights into market sentiment towards specific stocks [26][29]. Combining Fund Ownership & Active Exposure - The report illustrates combinations of fund ownership levels and active exposure to identify stocks with varying degrees of ownership and positioning [29]. Four Stock Screens - The four stock screens are designed to identify stocks based on their positioning and momentum, categorizing them into Crowded Positives, Under-owned Positives, Crowded Negatives, and Under-owned Negatives [30][35]. Stock Positioning Charts - The report includes charts for six most important stocks in each covered region, determined by market cap and relative return volatility [36]. Methodology Changes - The report has been updated to include new analyses based on client feedback, focusing on equity flow and back-testing the performance of the four stock screens [37][44].

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: BUY with a Price Objective (PO) of 160.00 USD, current Price at 135.40 USD [1][6] Core Insights - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is expanding its portfolio with a broad set of AI products across various sectors, including cloud, enterprise, humanoid robots, and gaming, positioning itself in a "multi Trillion $ AI factory" industry [2][3] - The introduction of NVLink Fusion allows NVDA to extend its proprietary interconnect technology to third-party custom accelerators and CPUs, significantly expanding its Total Addressable Market (TAM) [2][3] - The GB200 systems are in full production, with management expressing high confidence in the rollout and strong demand, while preparing for the next-generation GB300 systems [4] - The launch of the Grace CPU C1 targets power-efficient edge, telco, and storage systems, competing against Intel and AMD's x86 products [3] Summary by Sections Portfolio Expansion - NVDA is diversifying its offerings with AI products across multiple sectors, indicating a strategic move to capture a larger market share [2][3] - The NVLink Fusion technology enhances collaboration with cloud service providers, integrating NVDA's GPUs with third-party ASICs and ARM-based CPUs [3] Production and Delivery Confidence - The GB200 systems are fully operational, with management indicating a strong demand and confidence in the production process despite challenges [4] - The upcoming GB300 systems are expected to deliver 1.5 times more inference capability due to enhanced memory and networking features [4] Market Dynamics - The enterprise server RTX Pro extends AI capabilities into the enterprise sector, increasing competition against legacy x86 systems [2] - The Sovereign AI buildout is anticipated to benefit from recent Middle-East deals, with significant advantages expected in the following years [2]