Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Visa, with a target price raised to US$400.60, indicating a potential upside of 21.8% from the current price of US$328.93 [2][7]. Core Insights - In 1Q FY26, Visa's total revenue reached US$15.17 billion, a year-over-year increase of 14.0%, slightly above expectations. Net revenue, after deducting client incentives, grew 14.6% to US$10.90 billion, also exceeding forecasts [3][11]. - The growth in revenue was driven by strong performance in Commercial and Money Movement Solutions (CMS) and Value-Added Services (VAS), with CMS revenue increasing by 20% year-over-year and VAS revenue up 28% year-over-year [3][11]. - Visa's stablecoin strategy has evolved into an integrated capability stack, expanding its card issuance and settlement services to over 50 countries, with stablecoin settlement volume reaching an annualized US$4.6 billion by the end of 2025 [5][12]. - Management remains optimistic about the company's outlook, maintaining full-year guidance unchanged, with projected net revenue growth of 11.3% for FY26, supported by resilient global payment trends and strong growth in CMS and VAS [7][16]. Financial Summary - For FY26, Visa expects net revenue growth of 11.3%, with diluted EPS projected to grow from US$12.93 in FY26 to US$15.94 by FY28, reflecting a sustained low double-digit growth rate [3][7]. - Operating expenses in 1Q FY26 rose by 16.2% year-over-year, influenced by unfavorable foreign exchange impacts and increased marketing expenses [3][11]. - Visa's return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain high, at 59.5% for FY26, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 for the same year [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Innovent Biologics, indicating an "Outperform" rating for the stock, expecting a relative return exceeding the benchmark index over the next 12-18 months [18]. Core Insights - In FY25, Innovent achieved total product revenue of approximately CNY 11.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 45%, marking the first time the company surpassed the CNY 10 billion milestone [5][6]. - The oncology product portfolio has expanded to 13 products, with core products like Tyvyt® (sintilimab injection) showing steady growth and new products contributing significantly to revenue [6][10]. - The chronic disease segment has seen significant commercialization results, with products such as mazdutide (GLP-1/GCG), tafolecimab (PCSK9), and teprotumumab (IGF-1R) driving revenue growth [7][9]. - In Q4 2025, total product revenue reached approximately CNY 3.3 billion, reflecting a 60% year-on-year increase, with six new drugs included in the National Reimbursement Drug List for 2026 [8][10]. - The company is progressing towards its revenue target of CNY 20 billion by 2027, with ongoing development in oncology, metabolism, autoimmune diseases, and ophthalmology [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total product revenue for FY25 was approximately CNY 11.9 billion, a 45% increase year-on-year [5]. - Q4 2025 revenue was approximately CNY 3.3 billion, a 60% increase year-on-year [8]. Product Development - The oncology portfolio has expanded to 13 products, with core products maintaining steady growth [6]. - Significant commercialization in chronic diseases, with key products accelerating market uptake [7]. Market Position - The company is moving closer to its revenue target of CNY 20 billion by 2027, with a rich pipeline in various therapeutic areas [9].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Marginal Changes - The consumer confidence index for January dropped significantly by 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest level since 2014, and well below market expectations of 91 [1][6]. - November trade data returned to normal patterns, with the overall trade deficit continuing to widen, and capital goods imports increased by 7.9%, led by computers and semiconductors, indicating sustained strong investment in AI-related sectors [1][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for December rose by 0.5% month-on-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.2%, indicating that businesses are passing tariff costs downstream, with inflationary pressures persisting [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Rate Expectations - At the January FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% as expected, continuing a monthly balance sheet reduction of $40 billion [2][7]. - Powell's remarks indicated a more positive economic outlook, with a shift from moderate to more robust expansion, while the labor market remains relatively stable despite cooling [2][7]. Group 3: Warsh's Policy Stance and Potential Impact - Warsh, nominated as the next Fed Chair, is relatively hawkish, advocating for rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, viewing inflation as a choice and suggesting that AI-driven productivity gains can help curb inflation [3][8]. - His support for rate cuts without inflation concerns suggests room for further easing, but his push for balance sheet reduction may face constraints from short-term liquidity pressures and midterm election dynamics [3][8]. Group 4: Asset Implications - In the U.S. stock market, tech stocks led declines amid balance sheet reduction expectations, with significant divergence among major tech firms; Microsoft fell by 11% while Meta surged nearly 10% [4][9]. - The capital expenditures of leading companies increasingly rely on internal cash flow for financing, indicating a stronger economic pull compared to the internet bubble period [4][9]. - The steepening yield curve in U.S. Treasuries may present trading opportunities in long-term bonds, with short-to-medium term bond yields expected to decline [4][13]. - Gold prices experienced volatility due to retracting rate cut expectations, with significant market fluctuations potentially providing buying opportunities [4][16]. - The U.S. dollar may face a downward trend due to adjustments in national security strategy, with liquidity concerns contributing to short-term rebounds [5][20].

Investment Focus - The report highlights the value of consumer stocks in a volatile market, recommending a focus on companies like Guizhou Moutai, Eastroc Beverage, and Yili Group, all rated as "Outperform" [1]. Industry Overview - In January 2026, four out of eight tracked essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, including condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and dining, while four sectors, such as mid-to-high-end baijiu, dairy products, and beer, experienced declines [3][9]. - The overall consumer industry is characterized by a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards essential goods [9]. Revenue and Growth Analysis - The revenue for the mid-to-high-end baijiu sector in January was 470 billion yuan, down 14.0% year-on-year, while the revenue for the mass-market baijiu sector was 229 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [10][11]. - The soft drink sector reported a revenue of 962 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, indicating a cautious recovery in demand [17]. - The frozen food sector saw a revenue of 150 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, driven by pre-Spring Festival stocking and low temperatures [16]. Price Trends - The report notes that the wholesale prices of major baijiu brands like Guizhou Moutai remained stable, while some brands faced downward price pressures due to high inventory levels [4][21]. - The average discount rates for liquid milk and condiments increased compared to the previous month, reflecting intensified market competition [35][37]. Market Dynamics - The report identifies four favorable funding factors for the essential consumer sector, including significant volatility in global capital markets, declining risk-free interest rates, increased foreign capital allocation to China, and low institutional allocation levels [6]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with both domestic and foreign institutional preferences, as well as those showing improvements in fundamentals and dividend yields [6].

·········································································································[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 3 Feb 2026 ```··························································································································································································································································· 东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚指数双周报第 17 期：新马泰稳健上行，印尼承压走弱 ASEAN Index Tracking：SG, ML ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The Politburo study session on January 31, 2026, emphasized the need for forward-looking planning and development of future industries, focusing on leveraging comparative advantages and systematic cultivation of key technologies [1][8]. - The policy evolution indicates a shift from initial directional guidance to a more actionable framework for industrial organization, enhancing predictability and stability for long-term investments in the technology sector [2][9]. - The development of future industries is centered around six major directions, with a common foundation of "new infrastructure + high-end manufacturing capabilities," highlighting the importance of engineering, scalability, and regulatory frameworks [3][10]. Summary by Sections Future Industry Development - The meeting outlined principles such as "industry poses the questions, science provides the answers," which will guide the systematic layout of basic research and the transformation of scientific achievements into practical applications [1][8]. - The focus on "gradient cultivation" suggests a structured approach to industrial growth, allowing for early-stage uncertainties while promoting comprehensive support across the entire value chain [2][9]. Key Areas of Focus - The report identifies critical areas such as quantum computing, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G technology as essential for future industrial competitiveness [3][10]. - Embodied intelligence is highlighted as a significant driver of spillover effects across the technology supply chain, integrating various components such as sensors, actuators, and AI systems [4][11]. Governance and Standards - The emphasis on governance and standards is seen as an accelerator for industrialization, providing a clear framework for compliance and risk management, which is crucial for attracting investment and fostering innovation [5][13]. - The report suggests that clearer standards will facilitate product definition and market access, making commercialization pathways more predictable [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sunny Optical Technology [2][10][17] Core Insights - Sunny Optical is expected to achieve attributable net profit of RMB 45.89–47.24 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 70% to 75%, significantly above Bloomberg consensus of RMB 35.39 billion. This upside is primarily driven by a one-off investment gain of approximately RMB 9.19 billion from an equity transfer for a stake in Goertek Optics. Excluding this non-recurring item, the core attributable net profit is estimated to be RMB 36.7–38.05 billion, supported by the ongoing premiumization of smartphone camera specifications [3][13] - The company continues to benefit from the upgrade of camera specifications in flagship and mid-to-high-end smartphones, which is expected to drive the average selling price (ASP) and gross margin for handset lenses and camera modules [4][14] Summary by Relevant Sections Handsets - Despite ongoing cost pressures from rising memory prices, the trend towards optical upgrades in smartphones remains intact. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the adoption of higher-value products such as variable aperture and periscope cameras, which will drive ASP and margin expansion [4][14] Automotive - The adoption of intelligent driving technologies is expected to significantly boost the company's automotive lens and module businesses. The average number of cameras per vehicle is projected to increase, with high-end vehicles already equipped with around 12 cameras. This trend is anticipated to accelerate growth in the automotive segment [5][15] XR & IoT - The company maintains its leading market share in imaging modules for smart glasses, with strong growth in revenue from handheld imaging devices. The rapid expansion of AI and AR glasses is expected to become a key growth driver in the coming years [6][16] Valuation - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is revised to RMB 4.23, 3.86, and 4.19 respectively. Based on a P/E ratio of 19.6x for 2026, the target price is set at HKD 85.24, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [6][17]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 2 Feb 2026 康哲药业 China Medical System Holdings (867 HK) [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 1 月 30 日，康哲药业子公司德镁医药，获得中国国家药品监督管理局（NMPA）批准磷酸芦可替尼乳膏新药上市许 可申请，用于治疗 12 岁及以上儿童和成人患者伴面部受累的非节段型白癜风。芦可替尼乳膏（Opzelura®）是 Incyte 开发的选择性 JAK1/JAK2 抑制剂芦可替尼制成的一种创新型乳膏。2022 年 12 月，德镁医药与 Incyte 就芦可 替尼乳膏订立许可协议，获得在中国大陆、香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区、台湾地区及东南亚十一国研发、 注册及商业化产品的独家许可权利，以及生产产品的非独家许可权利。 重磅品种芦可替尼获批上市，未来增长可期 Blockbuster Drug Ruxolitinib Cream Appr ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for gas turbine manufacturers and related supply chain companies, recommending to pay attention to companies such as GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Caterpillar, and Howmet [5][12]. Core Insights - The approval of a 7.65 GW gas-fired power generation air permit for Pacifico Energy marks the largest power generation emission permit in U.S. history, indicating significant growth potential in the energy sector, particularly for data centers [1][7]. - U.S. electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 5.7% annually over the next five years, with peak demand increasing by approximately 166 GW, largely driven by data centers [2][8]. - Texas has emerged as a hotspot for data centers, with ERCOT forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1% for peak load over the next five years, significantly higher than the national average [3][9]. - The trend of data centers building their own off-grid power plants is solidifying, driven by the need for reliable baseload energy sources, with natural gas generation currently being the optimal choice [4][10]. - Policy support at both federal and state levels is encouraging the establishment of self-built power plants for data centers, which is expected to further boost the gas turbine equipment market [5][11]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Emission Permit Approval - Pacifico Energy's GW Ranch project in Texas has received a 7.65 GW gas-fired power generation air permit, the largest in U.S. history, with plans for additional energy sources including battery storage and solar PV [1][7]. Section 2: Electricity Demand Forecast - The demand for electricity in the U.S. is expected to increase by 32% by 2030, with data centers accounting for about 55% of the forecasted growth in utility load projections over the next five years [2][8]. Section 3: Data Center Growth in Texas - Texas is experiencing a surge in data center capacity, with interconnection queues totaling approximately 160-180 GW, reflecting a nearly 300% increase in just one year [3][9]. Section 4: Energy Source Trends - Data centers are increasingly requiring more baseload energy sources, leading to a trend of self-built off-grid power plants, with natural gas being the preferred energy source due to its abundance and low cost [4][10]. Section 5: Policy Support and Market Outlook - Recent policy changes are favoring the development of self-built power plants for data centers, which is expected to enhance the market for gas turbine equipment as demand for baseload generation grows [5][11].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 2 Feb 2026 中国半导体 China (Overseas) Semiconductor FY4Q25 全球科技业绩快报：意法半导体 FY4Q25 Global Semiconductor Earnings Snapshot: STMicroelectronics 姚书桥 Barney Yao barney.sq.yao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 意法半导体 4Q25 业绩 mix：意法半导体公布的 4Q25 业绩整体 mix，收入为 33.3 亿美元（市场预期 33.0 亿美元）， 超出指引中值。毛利率为 35.2%，优于市场预期的 35.0%±200 bps 区间中值，主要得益于产品组合优化。然而，因包 含一笔 1.63 亿美元的一次性非现金税务支出影响，摊薄后 EPS 录得亏损；若不计此项，non-GAAP 口径下摊薄 EPS 为 $0.1 ...