[Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 10.10 | 17 | 16 | | 海底捞 | Outperform 17.00 | | 15 | 14 | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform 48.00 | | 14 | 13 | | 康师傅 | Outperform 16.38 | | 17 | 14 | | 中国飞鹤 | Outperform 6.40 | | 15 | 14 | | 颐海国际 | Outperform 18.42 | | 14 | 13 | | 达势股份 | Outperform 79.40 | | 97 | 48 | | 现代牧业 | Outperform 1.00 | | 11 | 8 | | 优然牧业 | Outperform 2.22 | | 10 | 7 | | 九毛 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 20 Mar 2025 美国必需消费 US Staples 美国消费行业 2 月跟踪报告：消费整体疲软，估值历史高位 Overall weak consumption, historically high valuation 闻宏伟 Hongwei Wen 肖韦俐 Weili Xiao hongwei.wen@htisec.com wl.xiao@htisec.com [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 宏观：消费整体数据疲软，就业与信贷降温。（1）整体：零售数据整体疲弱， 2025 年 2 月美国零售销售数据为 7227.1 亿美元，同比增长 3.1%，环比仅增长 0.2%，显著低于市场预期的 0.6%。信心指数创四个月新低，密歇根大学 3 月消费者信心指数初值降至 57.9。（2）通胀：短期表现可控，2 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%，环比上涨 0.2%；但长期服 务业通胀粘性较高，目前仍高于美联储目标。（3）就业：数据低于预期，2 月非农新增就业人口 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 62.30, representing a potential upside of 36% [4][14]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth, with total revenue projected to reach RMB 3.93 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.95%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 640 million, up 257.34% year-on-year [4][14]. - The company is leveraging AI as a core driver for its business expansion, focusing on three growth curves: digital maintenance, digital energy, and air-ground integrated smart solutions [4][14]. - The digital maintenance business is expected to generate revenue of approximately RMB 3.04 billion in 2024, while the digital energy segment is projected to reach RMB 867 million, reflecting growth rates of 14.59% and 52.98% respectively [4][14]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024: Revenue of RMB 3.93 billion, net profit of RMB 640 million - 2025: Revenue of RMB 4.73 billion, net profit of RMB 804 million - 2026: Revenue of RMB 5.67 billion, net profit of RMB 970 million - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are RMB 1.42, RMB 1.78, and RMB 2.15 respectively [3][4][14]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to be around 56.6% in 2024, with slight fluctuations in subsequent years [3][4]. Business Segmentation - The company’s revenue breakdown for 2024 includes: - ADAS products: RMB 378.21 million - New energy charging services: RMB 793.14 million - Software cloud services: RMB 73.54 million - TPMS products: RMB 708.14 million - Automotive diagnostic products: RMB 1,415.25 million - The overall revenue for 2024 is expected to be RMB 3.93 billion, with a gross margin of 56.6% [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of $5.30, representing an upside of 81% from the current price [8][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of $298.6 million in 2024, marking a year-over-year growth of 29.8%. This growth was driven by strong performance in IoT PaaS and smart solutions [3][17]. - The company reported its first positive net income under GAAP, with a net profit of $5 million in 2024, compared to a net loss of $60.3 million in 2023. The NON-GAAP net profit reached $75.3 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 268.5% [3][17]. - The overall gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 47.4% in 2024, up 1 percentage point from 2023, indicating enhanced profitability, particularly in the IoT PaaS segment [3][17]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $359 million, $425 million, and $494 million, respectively, with expected growth rates of 20.2%, 18.3%, and 16.3% [3][8]. - The company’s operating expenses decreased by 11.0% year-over-year in 2024, with reductions in R&D, sales and marketing, and administrative expenses [3][17]. - The company’s cash balance exceeded $1 billion by the end of 2024, indicating strong liquidity [3][17]. Customer and Market Dynamics - The number of premium IoT PaaS customers increased to 298 in 2024, contributing 86.9% to total revenue, up from 83.4% in 2023, showcasing improved customer retention and focus on high-value clients [4][5]. - The company’s developer ecosystem expanded, with 1.316 million registered developers and over 1.07 million smart device SKUs developed through its platform [5][6]. AI and Technological Advancements - The company has embraced generative AI and launched the Tuya AI Agent development platform, integrating major language models to enhance its offerings [6][7]. - Future focus areas include AI devices and spatial intelligence applications, aiming to improve user interaction and operational efficiency [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA with a target price of USD 146, adjusted down from USD 168 [2][12]. Core Insights - The report indicates a lack of short-term catalysts for NVIDIA, but highlights significant long-term upside potential [9]. - NVIDIA's stock price is currently viewed as attractive despite a recent decline following the GTC conference, as new products and partnerships are expected to have limited immediate impact [11][12]. - The company is evolving from merely selling hardware to becoming an operating system platform company, integrating data and business with its customers [13]. Summary by Sections Event Highlights - The NVIDIA GPU Technology Conference (GTC) featured a keynote by Jensen Huang, focusing on the AI development roadmap and the transition from generative AI to agent AI and eventually to physical AI [15]. Chip Developments - NVIDIA revealed significant chip-related progress, including the purchase of 3.6 million Blackwell chips by the top four supercomputer operators, and the full-scale production of the Grace Blackwell solution [16]. - Upcoming products include the Blackwell Ultra NVL72 platform expected in the second half of the year, and future AI chips planned for 2026 and 2027 [16][19]. Partnerships and Applications - NVIDIA announced collaborations with telecommunications companies for 6G technology and with General Motors for AI-powered self-driving cars, emphasizing safety with the Halos automotive safety solution [18][21]. - The introduction of the open-source humanoid robot functional model GR00TN1 and partnerships with DeepMind and Disney for the Newton robot platform indicate a strategic expansion into robotics [20][21]. Performance and Market Position - The report notes that NVIDIA's P/E ratios are 23 times for CY25/FY26 and 17 times for CY26/FY27, positioning it favorably compared to other major tech companies [14]. - The continuous innovation in chip performance and product planning is expected to exceed market expectations, showcasing NVIDIA's strong technical capabilities [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 82.62 HKD based on a 2025 PE of 25X [2][9]. Core Insights - Miu Miu's retail revenue surged by 93% in 2024, with EBIT margin reaching a 10-year high. Overall revenue increased by 14.9% YoY to 5.43 billion Euros, while net profit rose by 25% YoY to 839 million Euros [2][9]. - The company is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with net profit forecasts of 972 million Euros in 2025, 1.088 billion Euros in 2026, and 1.191 billion Euros in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.9%, 11.9%, and 9.5% respectively [2][9]. Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 4.726 billion Euros - 2024: 5.432 billion Euros (YoY +14.9%) - 2025E: 6.059 billion Euros (YoY +11.5%) - 2026E: 6.646 billion Euros (YoY +9.7%) - 2027E: 7.207 billion Euros (YoY +8.4%) [2][6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 671 million Euros - 2024: 839 million Euros (YoY +25.0%) - 2025E: 972 million Euros (YoY +15.9%) - 2026E: 1.088 billion Euros (YoY +11.9%) - 2027E: 1.191 billion Euros (YoY +9.5%) [2][6] - **EPS Forecast**: - 2023: 0.26 Euros - 2024: 0.33 Euros - 2025E: 0.38 Euros - 2026E: 0.43 Euros - 2027E: 0.47 Euros [2][6] - **Gross Margin**: - 2024: 79.84% - 2025E: 79.80% - 2026E: 79.90% - 2027E: 80.00% [2][6] - **Return on Equity**: - 2024: 19.07% - 2025E: 19.84% - 2026E: 19.93% - 2027E: 19.63% [2][6] Retail Performance Summary - Miu Miu's total channel revenue increased by 82.9% YoY to 1.38 billion Euros, with a significant rise in direct retail efficiency [2][9]. - The company plans to optimize its retail network, with a focus on expanding Miu Miu into new markets while controlling general and administrative expenses [2][9]. - Retail revenue growth in 2024 was notable across regions, with Japan leading at 46% YoY growth, followed by the Middle East at 26% [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Auto, indicating an expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [10][19]. Core Insights - Li Auto's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 144.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of RMB 44.3 billion, up 6% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be RMB 8 billion, down 31% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 net profit at RMB 3.5 billion, down 38% year-on-year but up 25% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. - For Q1 2025, vehicle deliveries are anticipated to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5% to 15.7%. Total revenue for this period is expected to be between RMB 23.4 billion and RMB 24.7 billion, down 8.7% to 3.5% year-on-year [3][10]. Financial Data Summary - Key financial metrics for Li Auto from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue (in million RMB): 2023: 123,851; 2024: 144,460; 2025E: 189,483; 2026E: 210,516; 2027E: 230,781, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.5%, 16.6%, 31.2%, 11.1%, and 9.6% respectively [2][3]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): 2023: 11,704; 2024: 8,032; 2025E: 13,146; 2026E: 15,434; 2027E: 17,955, with year-on-year growth rates of 681.7%, -31.4%, 63.7%, 16.6%, and 15.9% respectively [2][3]. - Fully Diluted EPS (in RMB): 2023: 5.52; 2024: 3.79; 2025E: 6.19; 2026E: 7.27; 2027E: 8.46 [2][3]. Market Position and Strategy - Li Auto is focusing on enhancing user experience through intensive OTA upgrades, which have led to an increase in the order proportion of the ADMax version, particularly in models priced above RMB 300,000 [3][10]. - The company is set to launch its first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, in July 2025, as part of its dual-energy strategy, while also expanding its charging network with 1,874 supercharging stations and 10,008 charging poles by February 2025 [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 82.62 HKD based on a 2025 PE of 25X [2][9]. Core Insights - Miu Miu's retail revenue grew by 93% in 2024, with EBIT margin reaching a 10-year high. Overall revenue increased by 14.9% YoY to 5.43 billion Euros, while net profit rose by 25% YoY to 839 million Euros [2][9]. - The company is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with net profit forecasts of 972 million Euros, 1.088 billion Euros, and 1.191 billion Euros for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 15.9%, 11.9%, and 9.5% respectively [2][9]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (million Euros): 2023: 4726, 2024: 5432, 2025E: 6059, 2026E: 6646, 2027E: 7207 [2][6]. - Net Profit (million Euros): 2023: 671, 2024: 839, 2025E: 972, 2026E: 1088, 2027E: 1191 [2][6]. - Gross Margin (%): 2024: 79.84%, 2025E: 79.80%, 2026E: 79.90%, 2027E: 80.00% [2][6]. - Return on Equity (%): 2024: 19.07%, 2025E: 19.84%, 2026E: 19.93%, 2027E: 19.63% [2][6]. Retail Performance and Strategy - The retail network optimization is evident, with a slight decrease in the number of direct stores to 609, and a net opening of 3 stores. The company plans to continue retail investments and expand Miu Miu into new markets [2][9]. - Retail revenue growth in 2024 was notable across regions, with Asia-Pacific, Europe, Americas, Japan, and the Middle East showing growth rates of 13%, 18%, 9%, 46%, and 26% YoY respectively [2][9]. Management Changes - Miu Miu appointed Silvia Onofri as the new CEO, who has extensive experience in the luxury sector, previously holding positions at Bulgari and Bally [2][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's gross profit margin remains robust at 60.2% for Q4, with expectations for revenue growth to improve in Q1 2025 [7][14]. - The company has announced a buyback plan, reflecting long-term confidence in its performance [2][14]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 2.5% to USD 3.59 billion, with a slight recovery expected in 2025 [7][14]. Financial Data and Forecasts - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: USD 3,682 million - 2024: USD 3,589 million - 2025E: USD 3,743 million - 2026E: USD 3,928 million - 2027E: USD 4,118 million - Year-over-year growth rates show a decline of 2.5% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [4][11]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: USD 417 million - 2024: USD 346 million - 2025E: USD 382 million - 2026E: USD 413 million - 2027E: USD 440 million - The net profit margin is expected to recover gradually after a decline in 2024 [4][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: USD 0.29 - 2024: USD 0.24 - 2025E: USD 0.26 - 2026E: USD 0.28 - 2027E: USD 0.30 [4][11]. - **Gross Margin**: - 2023: 59.3% - 2024: 60.0% - 2025E: 60.0% - 2026E: 60.1% - 2027E: 60.2% [4][11]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023: 28.8% - 2024: 23.4% - 2025E: 20.6% - 2026E: 18.2% - 2027E: 16.2% [4][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at HKD 19.10, with a 52-week price range of HKD 16.78 to HKD 31.60 [5][14]. - The total market capitalization is approximately HKD 27,930 million [5][14]. Revenue Performance by Region - Q4 2024 revenue showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-over-year, with a currency-neutral increase of 1% [7][14]. - Revenue changes in Q4 2024 by region were as follows: - Asia: -6.3% - North America: +3.9% - Europe: +5.6% - Latin America: +14% [7][14]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Adjusted free cash flow increased by 9.3% to USD 310 million [7][14]. - Total dividends for the year were USD 150 million, with a payout ratio of 43.4% [7][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Haitian International [2] Core Views - Haitian International achieved a revenue of RMB 16.13 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, with a net profit of RMB 3.08 billion, up 23.6% year-on-year [3][11] - The company is focused on enhancing its global market share through multi-dimensional market strategies and active globalization efforts [5][14] - The target price is set at HKD 26.3, with a projected P/E ratio of 12 for 2025 [5][15] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company reported a gross margin of 32.5% for 2024, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year, driven by lower raw material prices and improved economies of scale [3][11] - In the second half of 2024, revenue reached RMB 8.11 billion, a 21.2% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.56 billion, up 26.4% year-on-year [3][11] Regional Performance - Domestic revenue for 2024 was RMB 10.11 billion, a 27.7% increase year-on-year, while overseas revenue was RMB 6.02 billion, up 16.8% year-on-year [4][12] - The company experienced significant growth in the Mars and Zhafir series of injection molding machines, benefiting from demand recovery in consumer goods and home appliances [4][13] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue benefiting from the recovery of global manufacturing and domestic consumption demand, aiming to expand into both mature and emerging markets [5][14] - Factories in Japan and Serbia are expected to be completed in 2025, enhancing the localization of the supply chain [5][14] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 17.1 billion, with a net profit of RMB 3.24 billion, and for 2026, revenue is projected at RMB 15.8 billion with a net profit of RMB 2.88 billion [5][15]