2025ASCO 揭幕，持续关注创新药 [Table_Industry] 医药 行 业 月 报 证 券 研 究 报 ——国泰海通医药 2025 年 6 月月报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 医药制造业 增持 医药服务业 增持 本报告导读： 2025ASCO 揭幕，中国创新药资产继续在国际舞台上发光发热，持续关注景气度向上 的创新药。 投资要点： 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.02 [table_Authors] 余文心(分析师) 郑琴(分析师) 谈嘉程(分析师) 021-38676666 021-38676666 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040111 S0880525040108 S0880523070004 | 1. | 持续关注景气度向上的创新药 3 | | --- | --- | | 2. | 国泰海通医药 2025 年 5 月月度组合表现优于医药指数 3 | | 3. | 2025 年 5 月医药板块表现排名第一 4 | | 4. ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.02 日本超长债：为何利率明显上行 [Table_Authors] 王宇晴(分析师) 海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 近期日本超长债利率明显上升，或主要受日本财政宽松倾向加剧市场对长债供给冲 击和财政可持续性担忧、日本国内机构超长债配置需求偏弱、以及 20 年期国债拍卖 遇冷影响。不过当前日元套息交易规模或相对较小，对全球流动性带来的外溢冲击 或相对可控。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040119 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 周 报 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 2025-06-02 日本超长债：为何利率明显上行？近期日本超长债利率明显上升， 收益率曲线也明显变陡。背后或主要存在以下几方面的原因：首先， 在关税影响下日本财政扩张倾向增加了市场对债券供给冲击的担 忧。其次，2025 年以来日本国内机构对超长债需求较为疲弱。此外， 日本国债拍卖遇冷或也催化了市场对超长债供需失衡的悲观情绪 ...

——2025 年下半年港股策略展望 本报告导读： ①历史上每轮行情都有主导产业，如 05-07 地产、12-15 科创、19-21 新能源，当前 新旧动能转换中，AI 产业周期或引领港股向上。②基本面：资本开支高增、汇聚稀 缺资产的港股科技更受益于 AI 产业叙事，业绩有望加速释放。③资金面：南下大幅 流入背景下定价权强化，未来仍有增量空间，低位配置中国资产的外资逐渐改善中。 ④未来贸易环境虽对港股仍有扰动，不过政策发力驱动基本面修复，下半年继续看 好港股，结构上恒生科技更优。 投资要点： 恒生科技牛 [Table_Authors] 吴信坤(分析师) 登记编号 S0880525040061 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.02 2025-06-02 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 海 外 策 略 研 究 021-38676666 杨锦(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040083 余培仪(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040084 [Table_Summary] 历史上每一轮行情都有主 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Huali Industrial Group, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark by more than 10% [19]. Core Insights - Huali Industrial Group is expanding its global production capacity, focusing on major clients such as NIKE, VANS, and Deckers Group, with significant growth in new client orders, particularly after entering the ADIDAS supply chain [2][7]. - The company plans to increase its factory count from 16 in 2023 to 20 in 2024, with a total workforce of 170,000 and an expected annual shipment volume of 223 million pairs of shoes, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 17% [6][11]. - Huali's production capacity is primarily located in Vietnam, leveraging low-cost labor and tax incentives, with plans for new factories in Indonesia and China to enhance production resilience and meet diverse customer needs [8][10]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Client Focus - The production capacity structure is configured around major clients, with NIKE as the top client, followed by VANS and Deckers Group. The company is in a rapid growth phase after entering the ADIDAS supply chain, indicating broad future potential [2][7]. - Huali has established a significant production base in Vietnam, with an annual capacity exceeding 200 million pairs of shoes, and is expanding into Indonesia and China to diversify regional risks [8][10]. Supply Chain Management - Huali maintains a rigorous supply chain management system, with raw material procurement costs accounting for over half of total operating costs. The company emphasizes timely delivery and standardized procurement processes to ensure production stability [9][10]. - The management is actively optimizing the customer structure by accepting orders from emerging brands, which helps reduce customer concentration and enhance overall order quality and pricing power [10]. Financial Outlook - The gross margin may face pressure in the short term due to the ramp-up period associated with new factory openings, but it is expected to rebound to high levels in the medium to long term as worker efficiency and production capacity utilization improve [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary consumption sector, including Nike, Midea Group, and Anta Sports, among others [1]. Core Insights - The gold and jewelry sector continues to show strong performance, while cosmetics and snacks are experiencing adjustments [1][4]. - Most sectors within discretionary consumption are currently valued below their historical five-year averages, indicating potential investment opportunities [6][11]. Sector Performance Review - Weekly performance rankings: Luxury Goods > Gambling > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Sportswear > Pet > Cosmetics > Snacks, with only cosmetics and snacks underperforming compared to the MSCI China index [4][14]. - Monthly performance rankings: Luxury Goods > Gambling > U.S. Hotel > Sportswear > Pet > Credit Card > Cosmetics > Snacks, with luxury goods and gambling outperforming the MSCI China index [15]. - Year-to-date performance rankings: Luxury Goods > Pet > Cosmetics > Snacks > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Sportswear > Gambling, with luxury goods and pets outperforming the MSCI China index [16]. Sector Valuation Analysis - As of May 30, 2025 expected P/E ratios for various sectors are as follows: Sportswear at 15.4 (76% of five-year average), Luxury Goods at 21.7 (61%), Gambling at 14.8 (24%), Cosmetics at 35.6 (88%), Pet at 48.4 (49%), Snacks at 24.3 (37%), U.S. Hotel at 28.7 (18%), and Credit Card at 32.0 (61%) [6][11][18]. - The only sector with a 2025 EV/EBITDA higher than its historical five-year average is cosmetics [11][18].

Investment Ratings - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Haidilao, and Midea Group, while Budweiser Asia is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in the F&B sector, with Chagee reporting a total net income of 3.39 billion RMB for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.4% [5]. - Pop Mart has suspended sales of its Labubu products in the UK due to safety concerns following incidents of violence [5]. - Miniso has launched its original IP "Gift Family," aiming to engage urban youth through immersive experiences [5]. - Cotti Coffee has commenced operations at its Phase II roasting project, which is the largest single roasting facility in Asia with an annual capacity of 75,000 tons [5]. - The home appliance industry has seen a trade-in initiative that generated sales of 174.5 billion RMB from January to April 2025 [5]. Weekly Performance Summary - In the F&B sector, Nayuki's Tea saw a weekly increase of 9.7%, while Chagee and Tongqinglou both decreased by 5.4% [6]. - In the designer toys sector, Pop Mart had a slight increase of 0.3%, while Miniso experienced a decline of 6.9% [6]. - The home appliance sector showed JS Global Life and Vatti with increases of 1.0% and 0.5% respectively, while Ecovacs and Roborock both decreased by 6.4% [6].

Investment Focus - The report indicates that the market has entered a corrective phase, advising investors to take advantage of any rebound highs to trim positions and redeploy once the pull-back is complete [1][7] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.3%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.5%, indicating a downward trend across major indices [1][7] - The report highlights the potential in blockchain and cross-border payment sectors driven by Hong Kong's forthcoming stable-coin ordinance, although the near-term staying power of this theme is limited [1][7] Market Conditions - Southbound capital flows recorded an inflow of HKD 28.1 billion, with short-selling turnover falling to 14% as Hong Kong shares retreated [2][9] - The AH premium remains stable at 141, indicating a challenging environment for further compression [2][9] - The report notes that the HIBOR remains low, but carry trades have pushed the USD/HKD exchange rate close to the weak-side convertibility limit of 7.85 [2][9] A-Share Market Insights - Micro-cap stocks continue to dominate turnover, with the Micro-Cap Index rising by 2.7% this week, but regulatory tightening on speculation is leading to significant losses in these stocks [3][10] - The SSE 50 index has already declined by 1.2%, suggesting that losses in micro-caps could further escalate [3][10] - The report advises investors to avoid overheated A-share micro-caps and Hong Kong "new consumption" plays for the time being, recommending patience until clearer support levels are reached [3][11] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests accumulating positions in internet and AI application leaders during the pull-back, with potential catalysts including the launch of DeepSeek R2 and accelerated deployment of AI agents [3][11] - It is recommended to consider incremental investments in large- and mid-cap stocks if they experience significant corrections [3][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on innovative drugs and related sectors, recommending continuous attention to innovative pharmaceuticals and biotech companies [1][6][25]. Core Insights - The $6 billion deal between 3SBio and Pfizer is expected to further stimulate the innovative drug market, indicating strong demand for Chinese innovative drug assets despite geopolitical tensions [1][26]. - The A-share pharmaceutical sector outperformed the market, with a 1.8% increase during the third week of May 2025, while the overall index fell by 0.6% [1][9][27]. - The report highlights strong performance in specific sub-sectors such as chemical raw materials (+8.8%), chemical preparations (+5.1%), and biological products (+4.0%) [1][15][27]. Summary by Sections Continuous Focus on Innovative Drugs - The report emphasizes the high growth potential of innovative drugs and suggests monitoring companies like Jiangsu Heng Rui Medicine, Huadong Medicine, and 3SBio, among others [1][6][25]. A-Share Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - In the third week of May 2025, the A-share pharmaceutical sector ranked first among Shenwan primary industries, with notable individual stock performances [1][9][27]. Hong Kong and U.S. Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - The report notes that the Hong Kong and U.S. pharmaceutical sectors outperformed their respective markets during the same period, with significant gains in specific stocks [1][21][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the healthcare sector, including JD Health, WuXi Biologics, China Biologic Products, and others [1]. Core Insights - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 3.4% during the week of May 26-30, 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 20.3 percentage points year-to-date [4][39]. - The report highlights significant market movements driven by the suspension of President Trump's tariff policy and the release of the 2025 ASCO abstracts, which increased investor interest in innovative drugs [40][44]. - The report notes that the innovative drug sector is currently experiencing manageable geopolitical risks despite ongoing monitoring of tariff policy impacts [40]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index has risen by 36.4% since the beginning of 2025, with various sub-sectors showing different performance levels: Pharmaceuticals +8.5%, CXO/Research Services +5.6%, Biotech +2.6%, and Internet Healthcare -1.1% [4][26]. - Notable gainers in the Hong Kong healthcare sector include JOINN Laboratories (+24.4%), Simcere Pharmaceutical (+24.2%), and CSPC Pharmaceutical (+22.4%) [41]. Recent Developments - The 2025 ASCO abstracts were released, showcasing promising data from companies like Innovent Biologics and Kelun Biotech, which contributed to heightened interest in the innovative drug sector [44]. - The HARMONi study by Summit Therapeutics reported positive topline results, indicating that Ivonescimab combined with chemotherapy met the primary endpoint of progression-free survival in NSCLC patients [18][44]. Company-Specific Updates - CSPC Pharmaceutical reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 7 billion yuan, with ongoing negotiations for three potential deals valued at approximately 5 billion USD [22][44]. - Xinnuowei Pharmaceutical entered a licensing agreement for the CLDN18.2 ADC program, receiving an upfront payment of 130 million USD and potential milestone payments totaling up to 1.34 billion USD [23][44].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify explicit investment ratings for the Southeast Asia Staples and Discretionary sectors. Core Insights - Economic growth in Indonesia and Thailand has slowed, with Indonesia's GDP growth at 4.87% year-on-year in Q1 2025, the lowest since Q3 2021, primarily due to weak domestic consumption and reduced government spending [15] - Thailand's GDP growth was 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations but lower than the previous quarter's 3.3% [23] Economic Data - Indonesia's GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 4.87%, marking a decline from previous quarters, influenced by weak domestic consumption and government spending cuts [15] - Thailand's GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 3.1%, showing a slowdown from the previous quarter's 3.3% [23] - Vietnam's GDP growth reached 6.93% in Q1 2025, the highest for the first quarter from 2020 to 2025 [37] Inflation Trends - In April 2025, Indonesia's CPI increased by 1.95% year-on-year, driven by a rebound in consumption during the Eid holiday [18] - Thailand experienced its first deflation since March 2024, with a CPI decrease of 0.22% in March 2025 [24] - Vietnam's CPI rose by 3.12% year-on-year in April 2025, with core inflation increasing to 3.14% [2] Consumer Sentiment and Retail Performance - Consumer confidence in Indonesia declined, with the consumer confidence index at 121.10 in March 2025, down from 123.80 in the previous year [20] - Malaysia's leading index rose to 112.5 in March 2025, indicating potential future economic activity [3] - In April 2025, Vietnam's retail sales index for food and beverages showed a year-on-year decline of 1.66% [20] Market Performance - In April 2025, stock indices in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia rose by 3.9%, 2.5%, and 1.8% respectively, while Singapore and Vietnam indices fell by 3.4% and 6.9% [13] - The report highlights that only Vietnam's consumer sectors outperformed the indices, while other markets' consumer sectors lagged [3] Valuation Metrics - As of April 2025, Indonesia's essential and discretionary consumer sectors had historical PE ratios at 1% and 3% respectively, while Thailand's were at 4% and 62% [4] - Singapore's essential and discretionary consumer sectors had historical PE ratios of 36% and 33% respectively [4]