研究报告 2025 年 6 月 11 日 中东股票策略 首次覆盖：阿联酋能源与低碳增长受益者，提供可观价值及丰厚收益 [Table_yemei1] 投资要点 Investment Focus | | | | 市盈率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名 | 评级 | 目标价 | 2025（预测） | 2026（预测） | | 阿布扎比国家石油天 | 优于大市 | 3.9 | 15.7 | 14.9 | | 然气公司 阿布扎比国家石油钻 | | | | | | 井公司 | 优于大市 | 6.2 | 16.1 | 14.9 | | 阿布扎比国家石油分 销公司 | 优于大市 | 4.7 | 17.4 | 16.4 | | 阿布扎比国家石油物 流与服务公司 | 优于大市 | | 11.5 | 10.9 | | | | 7.0 | | | | 博禄 | 优于大市 | 3.0 | 19.4 | 15.8 | | Fertiglobe | 优于大市 | 3.0 | 25.1 | 21.2 | | 冶天 | 优于大市 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 9.4 | | 巴拉德动力系统 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Xiaomi Group, Lenovo Group, BYD Electronics, and Sunny Optical, while a "Neutral" rating is given to SMIC and ASMPT [1]. Core Insights - Generative AI is expected to accelerate a software productivity revolution, pushing the global software market to exceed $2 trillion by 2030, with enterprise software and cloud services projected to grow at CAGRs of 12.3% and 20.7% respectively [4][12]. - The AI + Coding sector is becoming a key area for generative AI applications, with major players including OpenAI Codex and GitHub Copilot leading the market [5][32]. - AI is transforming software development processes, enhancing efficiency and reducing development costs significantly, with expectations of a 90% reduction in project development cycles and labor costs [22][38]. Market Overview and Growth Drivers - The global software market is projected to grow from approximately $737 billion in 2024 to over $2 trillion by 2030, driven by digital transformation, remote work, and cloud computing [17][48]. - North America holds the largest market share at 44%, followed by Europe at 28% and Asia-Pacific at 22% [17][48]. - The AI programming tools market is expected to grow from $6.21 billion in 2024 to $18.2 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 24% [20]. Technological Breakthroughs and Applications - AI + Coding tools are evolving from simple code completion to full-process development assistants, significantly improving development efficiency [12][29]. - The core technology relies on large language models (LLMs) that understand and generate code, with applications in code generation, testing automation, and project management [24][32]. - The introduction of generative AI is expected to democratize software development, allowing non-professionals to participate through low-code/no-code platforms [32][52]. Hardware Foundation and Cost Structure - The cost structure of AI programming tools is primarily driven by hardware costs, which account for about 70% of total costs, with significant reductions in inference costs due to model optimization [34][37]. - Innovations in CPU and GPU technologies are reshaping the computational ecosystem, with RISC-V architecture gaining traction for its flexibility [37][38]. Industry Impact and Future Outlook - AI + Coding is anticipated to reduce development time by 5-10 times and lower enterprise development costs to 10% of current levels, fundamentally reshaping the software industry ecosystem [38][40]. - By 2028, it is predicted that 75% of enterprise software engineers will use AI programming tools regularly, a significant increase from less than 10% in early 2023 [38][40]. Investment Opportunities and Strategic Recommendations - Three main investment themes are identified: platform-based AI programming tools and IDE providers, vertical industry AI solution providers, and IT outsourcing firms transitioning to AI-driven models [40][44]. - Companies are encouraged to strategically adopt AI programming tools, restructure development processes, and establish governance frameworks for AI-generated code [44].

Employment Data - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slowing from April but exceeding expectations of 126,000[4] - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from April[4] - The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2%, the highest since October 2021, marking a continuous rise for four months[4] Wage and Hours - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year was 3.9%, better than the expected 3.7%[8] - The month-on-month wage growth improved to 0.4%, surpassing the forecast of 0.3%[8] - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.3 hours[8] Sector Performance - Job gains in the service sector were strong, with notable increases in leisure, hospitality, and warehousing, while manufacturing and government jobs weakened[7][17] - Professional and business services saw a significant decline, with a loss of 18,000 jobs[7][17] Federal Reserve Outlook - The non-weak payroll data supports a narrative of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, alleviating recession fears[19] - The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the short term due to stable employment and unclear inflation risks[19]

Economic Overview - The U.S. job market remains stable, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, exceeding market expectations of 126,000[6] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.24%, the highest since October 2021, while the labor participation rate fell to 62.4%[6] - In Europe, the Eurozone's HICP inflation rate dropped to 1.9% in May, below the expected 2%[17] Market Performance - Major stock markets saw gains last week (June 2-6, 2025): Hang Seng Index up 2.2%, S&P 500 up 1.5%, and emerging markets index up 1.9%[3] - Commodity prices rose significantly, with Brent oil futures increasing by 4.3% and the S&P-GSCI up 4.1%[3] Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points, marking the eighth reduction since June 2024, with current rates at 2.00% for deposit facilities[27] - The Federal Reserve remains cautious about rate cuts, with officials highlighting uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation risks[26] Inflation Expectations - U.S. inflation expectations have decreased, with 5-year expectations at 2.35% and 10-year expectations at 2.31%, both down 4 basis points from the previous week[14] - The ECB has revised down its CPI and GDP forecasts for 2025-2026, indicating a downward risk to economic growth[27]

全球变局：锚定"确定性" 国泰海通中期策略会宏观发言实录 登记编号 S0880525040019 本报告导读： 在各国信任基础逐渐减弱的情况下，全球产业链、货币体系及资产分析框架都迎来 重构，黄金因去美元化及持续的央行购金需求或呈长期牛市，美元美债定价需关注 美元信用因素；国内经济需求端仍待提振，政策将延续渐进积极基调。 投资要点： 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦超预期 [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.09 2025-06-09 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 | 1. 全球变局：大类资产如何重定价 | | --- | | 3 | 究 宏 观 专 题 021-38676666 [Table_Summary] 全球变局：大类资产如何重定价？全球经济体系重构的根源是信任 基础的变化。变局中的"确定性"在于供应链变化只能是缓慢的，短 期虽有关税不确定性扰动，但影响没那么大。而全球货币体系的重 构也是信任的变化。近几年美国的制裁做法，其实在破坏货币体系 的信任度。在这个背景下，黄金的长期牛市需要站在更长历史维度 看待 ...

[Table_Industry] 运输设备业 净利率同比提升，关注纯电新车周期 理想汽车-W(2015) ——理想汽车 2025 年一季度业绩点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.09 2025-06-09 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格(港元)： 110.00 本报告导读： 理想汽车 25Q1 营收 259 亿元，同比+1%；归母净利润 6.5 亿元，同比+9%。我们看 好公司 AI 能力+纯电新车周期，维持"优于大市"评级。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万人民币） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 45287 | 123851 | 144460 | 168455 | 223371 | 267144 | | (+/-)% | 68% | 173% | 17% | 17% | 33% | 20% | | 毛利润 | 8790 | 2 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.03 2025-06-09 特朗普关税一波三折，市场情绪反复摇摆 [Table_Authors] ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 特朗普关税受阻，对全球风险资产有所提振，但关税博弈一波三折，避险情绪跟随 摇摆。美国经济边际下行，但长期通胀预期进一步上升，货币政策前瞻性指引依然 模糊，但是我们预计降息预期会进一步收窄。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 求 | | --- | | 1. | 美国：经济边际走弱，长期通胀预期回升 3 | | --- | --- | | 2. | 欧洲：经济景气度略有上行 5 | | 3. | 美联储继续模糊化前瞻性指引，欧央行 6 月大概率降息 6 | 究 宏 观 周 报 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。上周（2025.5.23-2025.5.30），全球大类资产价 格中，主要经济体股市分化明显。发达市场股票指数上涨 1.67%， 新兴市场股票指数下跌 0.93%。大宗商品价格均下跌，南华商品指 数下跌 1.62%，IPE 布油期货下跌 1.74%，伦敦 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Innovent Biologics with a target price of HK$90.10, up from a previous target of HK$62.50 [2][10]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics showcased its strong oncology R&D capabilities at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting, with eight studies selected for oral presentation, highlighting the efficacy and safety of IBI363 and IBI343 in various cancer types [3][15][16]. - The data presented for IBI363 in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) indicates its potential as a backbone therapy for next-generation immuno-oncology treatments, demonstrating robust tumor responses and long-term survival benefits [4][16]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Innovent Biologics are set at RMB 11.86 billion for 2025, with a growth rate of 26% compared to the previous year, and expected to reach RMB 18.17 billion by 2027 [10][13]. - The company is projected to turn profitable in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 384 million, and further growth to RMB 1.77 billion by 2027 [10][13]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 monotherapy showed a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 9.3 months in advanced NSCLC, outperforming standard therapies [5][19]. - In MSS-type colorectal cancer patients, IBI363 demonstrated a median overall survival (mOS) of 16.1 months, significantly longer than the typical 9-10 months seen with current therapies [8][20]. - The efficacy of IBI363 in treating acral and mucosal melanoma was also notable, achieving a confirmed objective response rate (ORR) of 23.3% in a historically difficult-to-treat population [22].

梅雨到来，下周水电或受益 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 本报告导读： 行 业 双 周 报 近期南方梅雨开始，预计水电出力或增加，下周水电或受益，可以关注。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.08 [Table_Invest] [table_Authors] 2025-06-09 [Table_Summary] 煤价震荡，梅雨到来，来水或好转。本周（6.3-6.6）华能国际+0.7%， 华电国际-0.3%，长江电力-0.7%，龙源电力 H +5%，上证指数+1.1%， 创业板指数+2.3%。5 月长源电力和龙源电力的发电数据均较前 4 月 好转，参考电厂耗煤，电力需求是有好转，但近期南方梅雨开始， 预计水电出力或增加，夏季的火电和煤炭需求仍需观察，总体看， 煤价尤其期货或止跌企稳，电价尤其广东和江浙沪仍需看水电情况， 下周水电或受益，可以关注。 全球和中国新能源快速发展，国内调节能力增强：1、根据中国电力 知库公众号援引的《中国可再生能源发展报告 2024 年度》：2024 年 全球可再生能源 ...

研究报告 Research Report 9 Jun 2025 映恩生物 Duality Biologics (9606 HK) 首次覆盖：ADC 行业领军龙头，有望持续成长为中国"第一三共" A leading player in the ADC industry, poised to continue its growth and potentially become China's "Daiichi Sankyo": [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$214.40 目标价 HK$269.70 HTI ESG 4.8-4.8-4.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$18.87bn / US$2.41bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$21.04mn 发行股票数目 88.04mn 自由流通股 (%) 74% 1 年股价最高最 ...