sui[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 24 Feb 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 美股分化显著，成长有望回归 U.S. Stocks Showed Notable Divergence, Growth Stocks Poised for a Comeback 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 刘念芸 Nianyun Liu 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA yd.zhang@htisec.com ny.liu@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 一、宏观经济数据韧性仍在，但动能放缓 美国四季度实际 GDP 年化季环比初值 1.4%，明显低于市场的预期 2.8%和前值 4.4%，显示美国经济增速在高基数后 出现一定降温。1 月 CPI 数据整体低于预期，核心通胀延续温和下行趋势，为美联储未来数月的政策空间提供一定 余地 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 大消费渠道脉搏：泡泡玛特和毛戈平 26 年同店持续强劲增长，新秀丽 26 年初回升明显 Consumer Channel Pulse: POP MART & Mao Geping Sustain Robust SSS Growth in 2026E, Samsonite Shows Marked Rebound in Early 2026 24 Feb 2026 中国香港美国可选消费 China (A-share) Hong Kong US Discretionary 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 吴颖婕 Mindy Wu yy.kou@htisec.com mindy.yj.wu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2026 年 2 月 23 日，海通国际举办专家系列会，邀请华南百货专家分享其对春节消费趋势及重点品牌表现的 观察。 根据我们近期对某华南百货 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 24 Feb 2026 中国可选消费 China (A-share) Discretionary 大消费渠道脉搏：性价比驱动楼市"小阳春"，刚需回暖集中于一二线核心区域 Consumer Channel Pulse: Value-for-money-driven Tailwinds Lift the Housing Market, with End-user Demand Recovery Concentrated in Core Districts of Tier 1-2 cities 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 陈芳园 Ashley Chen yy.kou@htisec.com ashley.fy.chen@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2026 年 2 月 23 日，海通国际举办地产专家会，邀请房地产专家分享近期"地产小阳春"的成因、结构分化、 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - Wynn Macau's total revenue for Q4 2025 reached USD 0.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.3%[2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was USD 0.27 billion, down 7.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.0%, a decline of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year[1] - For the full year 2025, total revenue was USD 3.72 billion, up 1.0% year-on-year, while adjusted EBITDA was USD 1.09 billion, down 7.7% year-on-year[1] Group 2: Gaming Revenue Insights - Total betting amount in Q4 2025 reached USD 11.93 billion, an increase of 34.5% year-on-year and 25.0% quarter-on-quarter[3] - VIP betting amount was USD 6.14 billion, up 47.8% year-on-year, but the VIP win rate was only 2.94%, lower than the expected range of 3.1% to 3.4%[3][10] - Gaming gross revenue (GGR) for Q4 2025 was USD 0.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, but below the industry growth rate of 15%[4][11] Group 3: Market Position and Outlook - Wynn Macau's market share in Q4 2025 was 11.98%, down from 13.06% in Q3 2025 and 12.97% in Q4 2024[5][13] - Management expressed optimism for 2026, anticipating continued high-end demand and plans for property upgrades to attract premium customers[6] - Capital expenditure for property upgrades is projected at USD 400-450 million for 2026 and USD 425-475 million for 2027[6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on major players like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent in the multimodal AI space, while the impact on Kuaishou is considered limited [2]. Core Insights - Seedance 2.0 represents a significant shift in AI video technology, transitioning from a "toy" to a "tool" with breakthroughs in industrial-grade consistency, multimodal integration, upgraded physics simulation, and native audio-visual synchronization [3][29]. - The maturation of AI video generation technology is expected to benefit short-duration, high-frequency, lightweight content consumption, particularly in short videos and micro-dramas [4][30]. - The report anticipates rapid growth in the AIGC content market share, with a potential shift towards short-form video formats driven by UGC and PUGC content [4][30]. Summary by Sections Seedance 2.0 Breakthroughs - Industrial-grade consistency resolves long-video issues like character "face drift" and "style jumps," enabling genuine storytelling capabilities [3]. - Multimodal integration allows simultaneous input of images, videos, audio, and text, enhancing the creative process [3]. - Upgraded physics simulation improves realism in generated content, reducing "AI twitching" phenomena [3]. - Native audio-visual synchronization achieves millisecond precision in lip-syncing and sound effects [3]. Impact on Content Production - Seedance 2.0 is expected to significantly lower content production costs, particularly benefiting the film and video industry [4][30]. - The report highlights the potential for explosive growth in AI live-narration short dramas, driven by high narrative efficiency and low production costs [5][32]. - AI comic dramas are identified as a certain commercialization path, with a clear monetization model and strong growth potential [10][38]. Market Opportunities - The report recommends monitoring short-video platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, as well as emerging short-drama platforms such as Hongguo Short Drama and Fanqie Short Drama [4][31]. - The AI comic drama market is projected to grow significantly, with the number of projects expected to increase dramatically by 2025 [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of IP quality in the AI comic drama industry, suggesting that companies with strong IP portfolios will have a competitive advantage [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Yantai China Pet Foods with an OUTPERFORM rating [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to capitalize on the global pet economy, leveraging brand and supply chain advantages to unlock incremental growth potential [1][4]. - The pet food market in China is expected to exceed RMB 320 billion by 2025, driven by factors such as the recovery of pet dog numbers post-pandemic and increasing urbanization rates [4]. - The company has established a resilient supply chain through a dual engine of OEM and proprietary brands, enhancing its competitive edge in the global pet food market [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 5.36 billion in 2025 to RMB 8.62 billion in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20% and 25% respectively [2][8]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 448 million in 2025 to RMB 748 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 29% [2][8]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.52 in 2025 to RMB 2.54 in 2027 [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a significant market share in the pet food industry, with its proprietary brand "Wanpy" expected to contribute over 50% of its self-owned brand revenue by 2024 [29][32]. - The company has expanded its international footprint with 23 factories across various countries, supporting high-margin operations and global brand outreach [6][25]. - The domestic market is increasingly important, with self-owned brand sales growing significantly, reflecting a shift from a historically export-focused model [15][19]. Product Development - The company is focusing on upgrading its product lines, with new high-end offerings under the "Wanpy" brand expected to generate substantial revenue [5][32]. - The introduction of innovative products, such as the "Toptrees" brand, is aimed at capturing the high-end pet food market segment [38]. Sales Channels - The company employs a comprehensive "online + offline" sales strategy, with significant growth in direct sales and a stable customer base [24][25]. - The revenue from direct sales is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 60.3% from 2020 to 2024 [24]. Conclusion - Yantai China Pet Foods is well-positioned to leverage its brand strength and supply chain capabilities to capture growth in the expanding pet food market, with a strong focus on product innovation and market expansion strategies [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Bloom Energy, indicating an outperform expectation for the stock over the next 12-18 months [12]. Core Insights - Bloom Energy's performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue, gross margin, and EBITDA surpassing consensus estimates, driven by significant growth in the AI data center sector and sustained demand in the commercial and industrial segments [1][2]. - The company reported a record order backlog of $20 billion, including $6 billion in product orders and $14 billion in high-margin service orders, with AI data center projects accounting for over 50% of new product orders [2]. - Bloom Energy's guidance for fiscal year 2026 is better than previously expected, projecting revenue of $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion (over 50% year-on-year growth) and a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 32% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Bloom Energy reported net revenue of $778 million, significantly above the consensus estimate of $508 million, and adjusted net income of $134 million, compared to the expected $73 million [2][5]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $146 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $105 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 31.9%, aligning with the company's target of 29% for FY 2025 [2][5]. Order Backlog and Strategic Partnerships - The total contract order backlog reached $20 billion, with a notable increase in high-margin service orders [2]. - The company has initiated a strategic partnership with Brookfield Asset Management for a $5 billion AI infrastructure project, enhancing its capabilities in providing power solutions for large-scale AI facilities [2]. Capacity Expansion and Market Position - Bloom Energy reaffirmed its plan to double manufacturing capacity to 2 GW/year by the end of FY 2026, with existing facilities capable of expanding to 5 GW as needed [3]. - The company has demonstrated competitive strength in key markets across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Western Mountain regions, and Texas, anticipating stronger growth and profitability post-2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Hong Kong Non-Bank Financials sector [20]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) announced three new initiatives aimed at enhancing the virtual asset regulatory ecosystem: margin financing, perpetual contracts, and affiliated market makers [8][9]. - The SFC's ASPIRe roadmap, published in February 2025, focuses on five pillars: Access, Safeguards, Products, Infrastructure, and Relationships, to create a safe and innovative virtual asset market [10][9]. - The introduction of Hong Kong dollar-pegged stablecoins is expected to facilitate more efficient cross-border fund flows and expand stablecoin applications beyond the crypto-native ecosystem [11]. - The SFC has authorized 11 tokenized money market funds, and the global tokenized asset market is rapidly growing, with tokenized gold assets reaching an AUM of $400 million, doubling in six months [12]. - The new regulatory measures are anticipated to significantly boost trading volume and liquidity in Hong Kong's virtual asset market, with perpetual contracts expected to enhance market activity [13]. Summary by Sections New Initiatives - The three new initiatives include: - **Margin Financing**: Licensed brokers can provide margin financing to clients with strong credit, initially limited to Bitcoin and Ethereum [14]. - **Perpetual Contracts**: A regulatory framework will allow licensed platforms to offer perpetual contracts, restricted to professional investors [14]. - **Affiliated Market Makers**: Regulatory relief will permit licensed platforms to provide liquidity through affiliated market-making entities, ensuring operational independence [14]. Regulatory Framework - The ASPIRe roadmap aims to enhance global liquidity and establish a compliance framework that integrates traditional finance with blockchain technology [10][9]. - The roadmap's five pillars are designed to improve investor access, product categorization, and regulatory reporting while promoting cross-border cooperation [10]. Market Impact - The expected launch of stablecoins and the liberalization of perpetual contracts are projected to increase trading volume, with Bitcoin perpetual contracts currently accounting for 70%-80% of total trading volume globally [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company, indicating it is a differentiated and high-growth entity benefiting from strong economic and consumer growth in the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q4 2025, reaching 6.41 billion AED, exceeding market expectations of 6.64 billion AED, driven by strong operational performance and sales volume [2]. - The company aims for double-digit growth in its non-fuel retail business, focusing on AI and digitalization to enhance operational efficiency and profit margins [1][2]. - The company plans to expand its network by adding 60-70 new gas stations and 50-60 electric vehicle charging points in FY 2026, with a total capital expenditure guidance of 250-300 million AED [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenues of 9.459 billion AED, a 1% increase from the previous quarter and a 7% increase year-on-year, surpassing the consensus estimate of 9.033 billion AED [2][5]. - The EBITDA margin for Q4 2025 was reported at 11%, aligning with market expectations, while net profit margin remained at 7% [2][5]. Business Expansion - The total number of gas stations reached 1,010 by the end of Q4 2025, with plans to increase this to 1,150 by 2030 [3]. - The company currently operates 536 convenience stores, contributing significantly to its profitability, with non-fuel retail gross profit accounting for nearly 14% of total retail gross profit [2][3]. Dividend Policy - The company reiterated its commitment to a dividend policy, planning to distribute 700 million USD or at least 75% of net profit as dividends by FY 2030, with quarterly payments starting in Q1 2026 [3].

yd.zhang@htisec.com ny.liu@htisec.com [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 11 Feb 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 黄金不怕"虚火"——时事点评 Gold is Immune to Speculative Bubbles 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 刘念芸 Nianyun Liu [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 一、交易性虚火已退，拥挤交易降温，黄金长线配置逻辑不变。 投机情绪降温。前期市场投机交易处于过热当中，一月底以来 COMEX 黄金期货的 RSI 指数已处于 70 以上的超买区 间，并在 1 月 29 日达到 89.46 的高点，自 1 月 30 日沃什获新任美联储主席提名后，市场将其降息加缩表的政策主张 解读为相对鹰派，导致部分资产回吐宽松交易预期，黄金此前估值偏贵，且仓位较为拥挤，首当其冲受到影响，单 日大幅回调逾 1 ...