黄金税收新政利好菜百投资金业务 菜百股份(605599) 菜百股份公司更新报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.04 2025-12-04 批零贸易业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 公 司 跟 踪 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持优于大市评级。预测公司 2025-2027 年营业收入分 别为 260.73/289.45/318.04 亿元，增速分别为 29%/11%/10%；预测公 司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 8.33/9.43/10.23 亿元（原 2025-26 预测为 7.25/8.15 亿元），增速分别为 16%/13%/9%。税收新政下公 司在投资金市场份额有望提升。给予公司 2025 年略高于行业平均的 18xPE（原为 2024 年 16x），目标价 19.26 元（+41%）。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 16 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of 195.99 HKD based on a projected P/E of 15x for 2025 [9][10]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express experienced a slowdown in parcel volume growth, with revenue reaching 11.86 billion RMB, up 11.1% YoY, and total parcel volume at 9.57 billion, up 9.8% YoY. The growth deceleration is attributed to seasonal factors and price increases affecting demand for small and low-priced parcels [10][11]. - The net profit for Q3 was 2.54 billion RMB, reflecting a 6.7% YoY increase, driven by regulatory measures that boosted prices and optimized business structure, with a notable 50% YoY increase in loose parcel volume [10][11]. - Cost efficiency continues to improve, with the per parcel cost at 0.91 RMB, up 0.09 RMB YoY. The transport cost per parcel decreased by 11.5% YoY to 0.34 RMB, benefiting from economies of scale and efficient route planning [11][12]. - The market share for ZTO Express in Q3 2025 was 19.37%, showing a slight decline but still maintaining its leadership position in the industry. Regulatory measures are expected to shift competition towards quality, benefiting established players [12]. Financial Summary - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 9.57 billion, 10.63 billion, and 11.93 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 11.89, 13.22, and 14.83 RMB [9][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 38.42 billion, 44.28 billion, 47.11 billion, 51.69 billion, and 57.71 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9%, 15%, 6%, 10%, and 12% [4][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 14.96, 13.82, 12.51, 11.26, and 10.03, indicating a downward trend as earnings are expected to grow [4][5].

Investment Focus - The report highlights a favorable market style for essential consumer goods in China, with several companies rated as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Industry Overview - In November 2025, four out of eight tracked essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, including condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and dining, while four sectors, such as high-end and below-average baijiu, dairy products, and beer, experienced negative growth [3][8]. - The overall growth rate across all sectors has weakened compared to the previous month, attributed to macroeconomic conditions, structural industry conflicts, and seasonal factors [3][8]. Price Trends - In November, wholesale prices for most baijiu brands declined, with Guizhou Moutai's prices dropping by 110 to 90 yuan compared to the previous month [4][20]. - The average price for Wuliangye remained stable, while the market for high-end baijiu showed a decline in both volume and price [9][10]. Cost Analysis - The cost index for six categories of consumer goods mostly increased in November, with soft drinks and dairy products rising by 2.50% and 0.74%, respectively [4][48]. - The prices of raw materials such as paper and plastic have shown significant year-on-year changes, with paper prices increasing by 17.5% [4]. Fund Flow - As of the end of November, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 111.58 billion yuan, with the essential consumer sector's market capitalization share increasing by 0.32 percentage points [5]. Valuation Metrics - By the end of November, the PE historical percentile for A-share food and beverage was at 21%, with the beer sector at a low of 1% [5]. - The median valuation for leading A-share food and beverage companies remained stable at 22x, while H-share essential consumer sector PE historical percentile was at 24% [5]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks as a long-term strategy, particularly in the dairy sector, which is expected to recover first, and regional leaders in the baijiu market [6].

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Outperform" rating for leading pharmaceutical and biotech companies with robust pipelines, as well as high-quality CXOs and internet healthcare firms [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of innovative drug leaders such as BeiGene and Innovent Biologics, which have shown significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, with BeiGene achieving USD 1.41 billion in revenue (up 41% year-on-year) and Innovent exceeding CNY 3.3 billion (up 40% year-on-year) [39][40]. - The CXO sector experienced a pullback in November, with notable declines in stocks like WuXi AppTec and Tigermed, attributed to profit-taking after strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025 and concerns over geopolitical risks [42]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming clinical data readouts from major conferences such as ESMO Asia and ASH, which could serve as catalysts for stock performance [10]. Summary by Sections Top Picks - The report lists top picks including Hansoh Pharma, 3SBio, Kelun-Biotech, Innovent, Akeso, JD Health, and WuXi AppTec, all rated as "Outperform" [1][4][35]. Performance Overview - The Hong Kong stock picks portfolio gained an average of 5.2% in November 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Healthcare Index, which declined by 0.1% [5][36]. - The top three performers in the portfolio were Hansoh Pharma (+12.9%), BeiGene (+10.2%), and Innovent (+10.0%) [5][36]. Market Trends - The innovative drug sector has shown resilience, benefiting from previous corrections and strong earnings catalysts from leading companies [39]. - The report notes that the recent implementation of key industry policies, including the 11th National Centralized Drug Procurement, has led to significant price reductions for selected products, impacting market dynamics [38]. Clinical Developments - Significant clinical progress is noted for companies like 3SBio, which is advancing its SSGJ707 (PD-1/VEGF) with Pfizer, planning to initiate multiple clinical trials [41]. - The report also highlights the potential of innovative therapies in oncology, with companies like BeiGene and Innovent expanding their product pipelines and market presence [32][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Tourism Group Duty Free, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [22]. Core Insights - The company is poised for a rebound in performance due to the release of policy benefits, with Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping reaching 506 million yuan and 72,900 shoppers in the first week of the new policy, reflecting year-on-year increases of 34.86% and 3.37% respectively [2][9]. - The company plans comprehensive upgrades across various sales channels, including the Haitang Bay project, downtown duty-free stores, and airport duty-free stores, to enhance sales performance [3][10]. - The introduction of high-quality products, particularly in the gold and 3C electronics categories, is expected to drive additional sales growth, with a target of 2.5 billion yuan in sales for Apple products by 2025 [4][11]. - A growing membership base of 46 million, with a focus on high-net-worth clients and differentiated sales strategies, is anticipated to enhance customer engagement and increase average transaction values significantly [5][12]. - The company is managing capital expenditures efficiently while exploring investment and acquisition opportunities to support rapid growth [6][14]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The new offshore duty-free policy has led to a significant increase in shopping activity, validating demand resilience and setting a positive outlook for the company [2][9]. Channel Upgrades - The Haitang Bay project will be developed in three phases, focusing on one-stop shopping, taxed retail formats, and lifestyle experiences, while downtown and airport stores will leverage tax refund policies and enhance service offerings [3][10]. Product Diversification - The company is enhancing its product offerings with a focus on gold, 3C electronics, health products, and emerging categories like pet products and musical instruments, which are expected to contribute to sales growth [4][11]. Membership and Customer Engagement - The membership system is expanding rapidly, with strategies tailored for high-net-worth individuals and emerging customer bases, aiming to significantly increase transaction values and customer loyalty [5][12]. Financial Management - The company is focused on controlling capital expenditures and maintaining a strong cash flow, while actively seeking growth opportunities through strategic investments [6][14].

研究报告 Research Report 2 Dec 2025 东南亚必需消费 & 可选消费 Southeast Asia Staples & Discretionary 东南亚消费行业 10 月跟踪报告：通胀温和且分化，消费需求结构性改善 Inflation Moderate and Differentiated; Consumption Structurally Improving [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 市盈率 P/E 股票名称 评级 目标价 PE(2025E) PE(2026E) 资料来源： Factset, HTI Related Reports 东南亚消费行业 9 月跟踪报告：区域经济延续复苏，消费板块普遍跑赢指 数 Regional economies recovered, and consumption beat the index. (3 Nov 2025) 80 100 120 140 160 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 HAI Southeast Asia Staples ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 2 Dec 2025 香港赌场和博彩 Hong Kong Casinos & Gaming [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 澳门博彩监察协调局发布幸运博彩 11 月数据：连续两个月录得双位数增幅，澳门幸运博彩毛收入（GGR）同比增长 14.4%，恢复至 2019 年同期水平的 92.2%。2025 年 11 月，澳门博彩毛收入达 210.88 亿澳门元，同比增长 14.4%，环 比下滑 12.4%，恢复至 2019 年同期水平的 92.2%。11 月澳门日均 GGR 为 7.03 亿澳门元，较 10 月的 7.77 亿澳门元下 滑 9.5%。11 月为传统的淡季，但行业表现仍具韧性，延续 10 月旺季的强势增长，超出市场预期，或受到全运会、 格兰披治大赛车等赛事的带动。2025 年 1-11 月，澳门博彩累计毛收入达 2265.15 亿澳门元，同比增长 8.6%，恢复至 2019 年同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for Chagee Holdings, with a current price of US$15.90 and a target price of US$19.10, indicating a potential upside of approximately 20% [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term pressure in the domestic market, with a revenue decline of 9% year-on-year in Q3, while overseas growth is gaining momentum, particularly with a 75% increase in overseas GMV [3][4][15]. - The company plans to implement a high-quality development strategy in 2026, focusing on expanding operating hours and enhancing profitability despite anticipated pressures from the direct sales business [5][6][15]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 12.4 billion, with a growth rate of 167% year-on-year, followed by RMB 13.3 billion in 2025, representing a 7% increase [11][15]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 2.22 billion, down 12% from the previous year, with a net profit margin of 16.7% [11][15]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 53.7% in 2025, up from 49.6% in 2024, driven by an increase in the proportion of revenue from company-owned stores [5][11]. Market and Operational Insights - The company opened 246 new stores in Q3, with a total of 7,076 stores, reflecting a 24% year-on-year increase in store count [4][5]. - The average monthly GMV per store in Greater China decreased by 28% year-on-year to RMB 379,000, while overseas stores reported an average monthly GMV of RMB 426,000, down 6% year-on-year [4][13]. - The company has entered new markets, including Vietnam and the Philippines, expanding its international footprint [4][5].

阿里健康 AliHealth (241 HK) FY26H1 自营业务板块增长带动整体业绩高增速，药品运营能力提升 FY26 H1, the Growth of the self-Operated Business Segment Drove High Overall Performance Growth, and Pharmaceutical Operational Capabilities Improved 研究报告 Research Report 2 Dec 2025 [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$5.51 目标价 HK$5.69 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$88.85bn / US$11.41bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$91.66mn 发行股票数目 16,125mn 自由流通 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Outperform the Market" for Emei Mountain [4][14]. Core Views - Emei Mountain, with its unique natural scenery and cultural heritage, is expected to significantly enhance its visitor capacity and accessibility due to the renovation of the Jinding Cableway and the construction of Leshan Airport, leading to increased tourist traffic and improved profitability [10][11]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 251 million yuan, 308 million yuan, and 346 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.48 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.66 yuan [4][14]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to be 1,045 million yuan in 2023, decreasing to 990 million yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 1,105 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 142.3% in 2023 followed by a decline in subsequent years [3][19]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 228 million yuan in 2023 to 346 million yuan in 2027, indicating a growth of 256.2% in 2023 [3][19]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 29.79 in 2023 to 19.63 in 2027, suggesting an improving valuation over time [3][19]. Business Development - The company has established a comprehensive business ecosystem comprising "tickets + cableway + hotels + diversified derivatives," leveraging its unique resources and 5A scenic area advantages to drive diversified development [4][15]. - The renovation of the Jinding Cableway is expected to increase its capacity from approximately 1,200 passengers per hour to 3,200 passengers per hour, enhancing visitor experience and operational efficiency [4][30]. - Leshan Airport is anticipated to facilitate tourist growth, with a designed annual throughput of 2.6 million passengers, significantly improving access to Emei Mountain [4][41]. Market Potential - Emei Mountain's visitor numbers in 2024 are projected to be 4.67 million, which is lower than other major Buddhist mountains, indicating substantial room for growth in both visitor numbers and revenue [4][51]. - The differentiated pricing strategy has shown effectiveness, with ticket prices varying by season, which has contributed to a stable increase in visitor numbers [4][50].