14 Jun 2025 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 China (Overseas) Discretionary & Staples 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliance Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus 研究报告 Research Report | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | | 评级 | | 泡泡玛特 | Outperform 现代牧业 | | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 九毛九 | | | Outperform | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 澳优 | | Outperform | | 海底捞 | Outperform | | | | | 华住酒店集团有限 | Outperform | | | | | 公司 | | | | | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | ...

wo[Table_Title] Research Report 13 Jun 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology FORCE 2025：TRAE 构建 AI 原生开发闭环，终端生态持续拓展 FORCE 2025: TRAE Builds a Closed-Loop AI-Native Development System, Terminal Ecosystem Continues to Expand 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件： 火山引擎于 6 月 11-12 日在北京举办 2025 年「FORCE 原动力大会」，发布豆包大模型 1.6 版本及视频生成模型 Seedance 1.0 pro，推出 Agent 开发平台及 AI IDE 等产品，重点强化成本革命，AI ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 13 Jun 2025 Global AI Industrial and Energy 工业自动化：美国工业回流对需求的边际拉动研究 Industrial automation: the marginal effect of US reshoring to the industry | 杨斌 Bin Yang | 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao | | --- | --- | | bin.yang@htisec.com | olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com | [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 核心观点： 美国制造业增加值在考虑人口等禀赋因素下绝对值并不低，近几年年复合增长率缓慢走低。2022 年美国制造业增加 值为 2.6 万亿美元，占全球制造业增加值的 15.1%，居全球第二，次于中国的 5.1 万亿美元（31.0%），在考虑到人口 等禀赋因素下，美国制造业增加值的绝对 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 13 Jun 2025 周大福 Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) 金价上涨和产品组合优化带动利润率大幅扩展，定价黄金产品成为推动公司盈利改善的重要引擎 Gold Price Surge and Product Mix Optimization Drive Margin Expansion, While Priced Gold Products Accelerate Profit Recovery 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 陈芳园 Ashley Chen yy.kou@htisec.com ashley.fy.chen@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2025 年 6 月 12 日，周大福披露 2025 财年（即 04/01/2024 -03/31/2025）业绩数据和 2026 财年 1-2 月（即 04/01/2025 -05/31/ ...

Market Overview - The stablecoin market has seen significant growth since 2020, with a current market capitalization of nearly $245 billion, representing about 7% of the total cryptocurrency market valued at approximately $3.4 trillion[15][18]. - Over 99% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with USDT and USDC dominating the market, accounting for 62.8% and 25.5% of the total stablecoin market capitalization, respectively[18][22]. Drivers of Growth - The growth of stablecoins is driven by their advantages in payment settlements, including efficiency, cost savings, and risk mitigation compared to traditional fiat currencies and other cryptocurrencies[15][22]. - Increased geopolitical risks and economic instability in emerging markets have created a demand for stablecoins as alternative currencies, with countries like Turkey seeing stablecoin purchases amounting to nearly 4% of their GDP[30][32]. Regulatory Developments - The passage of the "GENIUS Act" in the US marks a significant step towards establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is expected to enhance market development and attract more foreign investment[6][22][35]. - The act requires stablecoin issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve of compliant assets for every stablecoin issued, which is crucial for maintaining trust and stability in the market[38][41]. Impact on Global Currency and Assets - Stablecoins are expected to strengthen the US dollar's dominance in the global monetary system, potentially challenging the effectiveness of monetary policy in countries with unstable currencies[41][43]. - While the expansion of the stablecoin market may increase demand for US Treasury bonds, its overall impact on short-term bonds is limited, and it does not alleviate the pressure on long-term bonds due to persistent fiscal deficits[45][48]. Risks and Challenges - The ongoing uncertainty regarding cryptocurrency regulations in regions like mainland China poses risks to the stablecoin market's growth and adoption[50]. - The reliance of stablecoins on the US dollar's credit may not be sufficient to counteract the potential damage to dollar credibility amid global de-dollarization trends[32][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The direction of the Japanese government bond market is marketization, with high interest rates posing risks and supply - demand balance being crucial [62]. - Japan's economic growth is expected to be 0.5 - 0.7%, driven by corporate investment, domestic consumption, and overseas markets [62]. - The inflation expectation is 2.5% this year and 1% in the long - term [62]. - Japan's fiscal policy is burdened by history, high welfare, and fiscal constraints [62]. - Japan's monetary policy aims at normalization and maintaining financial system stability [62]. - Regarding cross - border capital flows, there is a trade - off between short - term hedging and arbitrage tools and long - term investment value [62]. - Short - term attention should be paid to the BOJ例会, the Ministry of Finance's June meeting, and the July Senate election [62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Japan's Government Bond Scale and Characteristics - The report may analyze Japan's government debt - to - GDP ratio and the classification of government bond holders in 2024 [6][9]. 3.2 History and Reasons for the Massive Government Debt - Japan's central government tax revenue and fiscal revenue - expenditure budget have changed over time, with the fiscal revenue budget increasing from 66.2 trillion yen in 1990 to 107.6 trillion yen in 2022 and expected to reach 115 trillion yen in 2025 [16][21][22]. - Population aging leads to an increase in future social security expenditures, which is one of the reasons for the massive government debt [23][25]. 3.3 Japan's Fiscal and Government Bonds - Analyze Japan's fiscal revenue - expenditure balance, fiscal deficit - to - GDP ratio, and compare it with other countries [28][29][30]. - Consider the interest rate and the interest burden of government bonds, where the interest rate refers to the weighted average of the current total government bond interest rate [31][32]. 3.4 Changes in Government Bond Yields and Their Impact on the Market 3.4.1 Reasons for the Rise in Government Bond Yields - Inflation expectation: Japan is moving out of deflation with a target inflation rate of 2% [38]. - Monetary policy: Ending negative interest rates and YCC, gradually raising interest rates to 0.5% in January 2025, and gradually reducing government bond purchase scale quarterly [38][45]. - Fiscal policy: There is public opinion about tax cuts [38]. - Changes in market participants and increased volatility, including the central bank, life insurance companies, domestic banks, and overseas investors [38]. 3.4.2 Impact of Rising Government Bond Yields - Fiscal policy: It requires fiscal self - discipline and the role of bond guardians [47]. - Monetary policy: There is pressure to raise interest rates and a need to adjust the QT rhythm [47]. - Cross - border capital flow: Japanese funds may flow back, and there are impacts on overseas funds and short - term funds (such as hedging transactions and yen carry trades) [47]. 3.5 Cross - border Capital - Japan's overseas assets in 2024 include direct investment, securities investment, financial derivatives, other investments, and foreign exchange reserves. The net overseas assets are 533,050 trillion yen, with an increase of 60,861 trillion yen compared to the previous year - end [53][54]. - The yen carry trade uses the long - term ultra - low interest rate and high liquidity of the yen to borrow yen and invest in high - yield assets for profit. After the unwind in August 2024 and April 2025, the current scale may be small [60].

Group 1: Inflation Overview - May CPI year-on-year growth is -0.1%, with a month-on-month decline of -0.2%[5] - May PPI year-on-year growth is -3.3%, with a month-on-month decline of -0.4%[16] - The gap between CPI and core CPI year-on-year continues to widen, indicating resilient service prices supporting inflation recovery[26] Group 2: CPI Analysis - Food prices remain stable, while oil prices exert downward pressure; service prices show resilience[6] - Transportation and communication prices decreased significantly, contributing -0.62% to the CPI[6] - Core CPI month-on-month fell to 0.0% (previously 0.2%), with a slight year-on-year increase to 0.6%[12] Group 3: PPI Analysis - PPI recovery is hindered by multiple factors, including falling international commodity prices and weak construction activity[16] - Coal and cement prices showed significant weakness in May, with coal mining prices down -3.0% month-on-month[16] - Export decline exacerbates supply-demand mismatch, with May exports showing a slight month-on-month decrease[16] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Trade tensions easing has not significantly aided the recovery of private sector balance sheets[27] - Private sector risk appetite has declined post negotiations, currently below levels prior to tariff increases[27] - Ongoing real estate pressures and weaker-than-expected consumer recovery remain key risks[31]

Export and Import Trends - In May 2025, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, down from 8.1% in April, while import growth was -3.4%, compared to -0.2% previously[4] - Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% in May, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels[7] - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025[7] Country-Specific Insights - Exports to the US dropped significantly by 34.5%, while exports to ASEAN and Latin America also slowed to 14.8% and 2.3%, respectively[12] - Exports to other regions increased to 11.8%, up from 10.4% previously, indicating resilience in non-US trade[12] Product-Specific Performance - Agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw significant declines, while machinery and raw materials remained stable[17] - Integrated circuits and ship exports continued to perform strongly, with automotive exports showing signs of recovery[17] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Optimists believe that the decline in May's export growth is temporary, expecting a rebound in June due to reduced tariffs, while pessimists fear a significant drop in orders due to preemptive exports in April[24] - The report suggests that while export momentum may normalize, a drastic decline is unlikely, with potential further decreases in year-on-year comparisons in Q4 due to high base effects[21] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include judicial friction over tariffs that could lead to further reductions in US tariffs[26]

Group 1: Dollar Credit and Economic Dynamics - The recent high interest rate environment has led to a significant cooling of private credit expansion in the U.S., indicating a fragile balance for the dollar[1] - The correlation between global capital inflow and the dollar index is weak, primarily due to the mirrored relationship between U.S. capital inflow and trade deficits[6] - U.S. residents' net worth is positively correlated with the dollar index, with stock net worth showing a stronger correlation than housing net worth[21] Group 2: Risks and Policy Challenges - There is a notable tail risk of a "debt-recession" spiral if economic policies do not adjust significantly, particularly under the current high interest rates[26] - The U.S. government’s pursuit of trade barriers and a weaker dollar could harm resident welfare and exacerbate the tail risks associated with high bond yields[32] - The ongoing high interest rates and low growth environment raise questions about the sustainability of government debt, potentially leading to a "debt-recession" spiral[34]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive industry or specific companies within it [1]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "60-day payment term" reform aims to alleviate the long-standing average payment cycle of 182 days in the Chinese automotive industry, which has been a significant strain on supply chain liquidity [1][7]. - The reform is expected to enhance supplier cash flow, optimize budget management for OEMs, and foster mutual trust and innovation within the industry [2][11]. Summary by Sections Event - On June 10-11, leading independent automakers and new-energy brands in China pledged to standardize supplier payment terms to no more than 60 days, following the revised Regulations on Ensuring Payment to Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises that took effect on June 1 [1][7]. Benefits of the "60-Day Payment Term" - Alleviating supplier cash-flow pressure by reducing settlement cycles to 60 days, which helps small and mid-tier parts suppliers lower financing costs and invest more in R&D and quality improvement [2][11]. - Optimizing OEM budget management through predictable payment schedules, which aids in financial planning and reduces risks associated with late payments [2][11]. - Strengthening mutual trust and driving innovation by establishing clear payment commitments that enhance collaboration and technology sharing between OEMs and suppliers [2][11]. Challenges Ahead - Many OEMs still have payables turnover exceeding 127 days, and existing payment schemes can extend actual receipt cycles to eight months, complicating the implementation of the 60-day term [3][9]. - The need for significant investment in process optimization and digital transformation may hinder smaller OEMs from fully adopting the reforms [3][9]. - The lack of a unified credit-rating and enforcement mechanism in the industry makes compliance with the new payment terms challenging [3][9]. - Ambiguities in contract interpretations regarding payment terms may lead to delays in acceptance and invoicing, affecting the actual execution of the reform [3][9]. - Effective regulatory and judicial coordination is necessary to ensure that penalties for late payments are enforced, preventing the new rules from becoming ineffective [3][9].