Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the research Core Insights - The Engram model proposed by DeepSeek and Peking University introduces a "Conditional Memory" mechanism that separates static knowledge recall from complex computations, significantly improving computational efficiency and task performance [1][2] - Engram-27B demonstrates systematic improvements over MoE-27B across multiple benchmarks, particularly excelling in long-context tasks [1][3] - The architecture allows for the offloading of large parameter tables to host memory, maintaining controllable inference throughput impact, thus validating the feasibility of "separation of storage and computation" [1][6] Summary by Sections Event - In January 2026, DeepSeek and Peking University released a paper on the Engram model, achieving significant performance improvements in various benchmarks while maintaining computational efficiency [1][17] Commentary - Engram innovatively decouples the recall of fixed knowledge from complex model computations, allowing models to focus on deeper reasoning tasks, thus enhancing overall efficiency [2][18] Performance Optimization - The study reveals an optimization path for resource allocation, indicating that transferring some model capacity to a conditional memory module can lead to a "U-shaped" performance trend, with a clear optimal performance range [3][19] - Replacing approximately 20% of traditional parameter capacity with conditional memory can yield significant improvements in knowledge-intensive tasks [3][19] Long Context Processing - Engram effectively offloads local repetitive details to memory lookup, allowing the backbone network to focus on global information integration, which is crucial for long-text processing [4][20] - In experiments, Engram-27B consumed only about 82% of the baseline pre-training computation while achieving higher accuracy in long-text retrieval tasks [4][20] System-Level Design - Engram's deterministic addressing mechanism allows for data pre-fetching from host memory, alleviating pressure on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and controlling inference overhead to within 3% even with large memory tables [6][22] - The innovation shifts the focus from GPU memory constraints to CPU memory capacity and interconnect technologies, potentially redefining the critical constraints of AI systems [6][23] Impact on Chinese Large Models - Engram's ability to transfer memory-type parameters to scalable system memory enhances model capabilities while reducing reliance on high-end HBM, providing a clearer path for efficiency-driven technological advancement in China's large model industry [7][24] - The open-sourcing of related papers and code lowers barriers for industry validation and development, facilitating faster deployment and commercialization of large models in cost-sensitive environments [7][26]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies discussed. Core Insights - The AI agents are evolving from interaction to execution, indicating a trend towards deeper integration into specific work scenarios, as seen with Clawdbot and Claude in Excel [2][13] - Clawdbot enhances automation by embedding AI agents into mainstream messaging platforms, while Claude in Excel integrates AI capabilities directly into Excel, improving efficiency in handling complex spreadsheet tasks [2][14] - Both initiatives reflect a shift towards practical applications of AI, moving beyond mere conversation to executing specific tasks within workflows [2][14] Summary by Sections Clawdbot and Claude in Excel - Clawdbot has released updates that enhance its functionality, including new plugins and improved documentation, while Claude in Excel has expanded its integration capabilities within Microsoft Excel, now available for Beta testing among various user tiers [1][12] - Claude in Excel addresses high-frequency pain points in daily work by providing intuitive explanations for complex data models and preserving formula dependencies during adjustments, thus enhancing accuracy and efficiency in data tasks [3][14] - Clawdbot's open-source model allows for greater user control and extensibility, facilitating the development of a collaborative skills ecosystem that can evolve from point automation to systematic workflow upgrades [3][15] Product Deployment and Market Strategy - Claude in Excel's Beta rollout allows for real-time feedback collection from users, indicating a strategy focused on iterative improvement and gradual expansion across subscription tiers [4][16] - The design of Claude in Excel emphasizes traceability and control, enabling seamless integration into existing workflows and improving overall efficiency in data analysis and output generation [4][16] - Clawdbot's reliance on local devices like Mac mini for its operations enhances control and execution capabilities, positioning these devices as personal AI gateways and automation centers [5][19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Gushengtang (2273 HK) Core Insights - Gushengtang announced plans to issue US$110 million (approximately HK$857 million) in convertible bonds with a 2% coupon rate and a 5-year maturity, aimed at share repurchases, AI-powered TCM system development, and working capital replenishment [1][5] - The issuance is fully underwritten by funds managed by Boyu Capital, with a controllable equity dilution of 8.91% post-full conversion [1][5] - The expected settlement date for the bond issuance is February 12 [1][5] Summary by Sections Event - Gushengtang plans to issue convertible bonds to raise approximately HK$857 million, with a 2% interest rate and a 5-year term, to support share buybacks, AI system development, and working capital [1][5] Commentary - The low-interest convertible bond issuance is seen as beneficial for stabilizing market expectations, with four key advantages: 1. Strategic endorsement from Boyu Capital, which may accelerate business expansion and diversify customer acquisition channels [2][7] 2. Low-cost financing minimizes interest burden while keeping dilution impact manageable [2][7] 3. Enhanced cash reserves provide greater flexibility for future repurchases or expansion initiatives [2][7] 4. Allocation of funds towards TCM AI system development addresses the industry challenge of a shortage of renowned traditional Chinese medicine practitioners [2][7]

Economic Indicators - The November PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, matching expectations, and a month-on-month rise of 0.2%, also in line with forecasts[6] - The core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year-on-year, consistent with expectations, and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, again aligning with forecasts[16] - The final reading for Q3 real GDP growth was revised upward to 4.4%, the highest in two years, indicating strong economic momentum[17] Consumer Behavior - In November, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.5% month-on-month, meeting expectations, while personal income rose by 0.3%, slightly below the expected 0.4%[18] - The personal savings rate declined to 3.5%, suggesting households are reducing savings to maintain consumption levels[18] - Consumer confidence index reached its highest level in five months, indicating strong consumer sentiment[18] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims were at 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000, indicating a healthy labor market[19] - Continuing jobless claims decreased to 2.015 million from 2.05 million, further reflecting a robust employment situation[19] Market Impact - Overall positive economic data supports the narrative of low inflation, high growth, and low unemployment, with limited marginal impact on the market[20] - Market fluctuations were primarily influenced by geopolitical factors and anomalies in the Japanese bond market[20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The gold and jewelry sector has emerged as the top performer this week, driven by new consumer sentiment and expectations of improved sales as the Spring Festival approaches. The sector saw a weekly increase of 12.9% [4][14]. - The report highlights a rebound in the new consumer sectors, with various segments such as gambling, overseas cosmetics, and retail also showing positive performance [4][14]. - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the performance of the MSCI China index, which has shown fluctuations in its weekly, monthly, and year-to-date performance [12][13]. Sector Performance Summary - **Gold and Jewelry**: Increased by 12.9%, with notable gains from Lao Pu Gold (20.5%) and Chow Tai Fook (5.9%) due to positive sales forecasts [6][14]. - **Gambling**: Rose by 2.9%, with MGM China and Galaxy Entertainment seeing increases of 4.0% and 3.6% respectively, attributed to market share gains [6][14]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Gained 2.1%, driven by E.L.F Beauty's strong performance and positive earnings outlook [6][14]. - **Retail**: Increased by 2.0%, with Wanchen Group rising 14.3% due to optimistic revenue forecasts [6][14]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Saw a modest increase of 0.9%, with companies like Proya and Runben showing positive trends [8][14]. - **Snacks**: Increased by 0.6%, with Youyou Foods and Qiaqia Foods showing gains [8][14]. - **Pet Sector**: Experienced a slight decline of 0.4%, with Zhongchong Co. facing market challenges [8][14]. - **Domestic Sportswear**: Decreased by 1.4%, with Li Ning showing a positive increase of 4.3% while Anta Sports faced a decline [8][14]. - **US Hotels**: Fell by 1.4%, with major hotel chains like Marriott and Hilton seeing declines [15][16]. - **Credit Card Sector**: Also decreased by 1.4%, with Visa and Mastercard facing market uncertainties [15][16]. - **Luxury Goods**: Declined by 1.6%, with Burberry experiencing a significant drop [15][16]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Decreased by 1.8%, with Adidas facing a notable decline due to downgrades from investment banks [15][16]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that most sectors are currently undervalued compared to their historical averages, with expected PE ratios for various sectors such as overseas sportswear at 30.0x (56% of the past 5-year average) and domestic sportswear at 13.4x (70% of the past 5-year average) [10][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Laopu Gold [2][12] Core Insights - Laopu Gold's revenue is expected to grow by 217% year-on-year in 2025, reaching RMB 26.96 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 4.63 billion, also up 214% year-on-year [3][12] - The company is focusing on deepening its domestic and overseas offline expansion, with a strategy of "fewer but better, larger and more beautiful" in ultra-luxury site selection [4][10] - Differentiated original designs are driving product iteration, with new product contributions expected to rise further [5][11] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 26.96 billion, RMB 36.03 billion, and RMB 43.78 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 217%, 33.6%, and 21.5% [6][12] - Attributable net profit forecasts for the same years are RMB 4.63 billion, RMB 6.51 billion, and RMB 8.19 billion, with growth rates of 214.3%, 40.6%, and 25.8% [6][12] Store Expansion and Strategy - Laopu Gold plans to open approximately 5 new stores in top-tier districts and upgrade existing stores during the second half of 2025 [4][10] - The company has opened its first overseas store in Singapore, enhancing its international presence [4][10] Product Development - The company has launched several new product lines targeting diverse consumer groups, including the "Gold Cross" series and the "Goddess of Light" pendant [5][11] - The product iteration strategy focuses on thematic innovation and distinctive craftsmanship to enhance product freshness [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies, including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Huazhu Group, Li Ning, Miniso, and others, with target prices ranging from 6.99 to 354.00 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the enhanced subsidized interest policy for personal consumption loans, which has been extended until the end of 2026, including support for credit card installment payments and the removal of certain limits on subsidy amounts [2]. - Pop Mart's new PUCKY series has gained significant popularity, being referred to as the "electronic wooden fish" due to its unique design and emotional stress-relief features [3]. - Weekly performance shows TCL Electronics (+24.8%), Pop Mart (+23.0%), and others leading the market, while companies like Ecovacs (-1.2%) and Haier Smart Home (-2.2%) lag behind [5][9]. Company Summaries - **Pop Mart**: Recently launched the PUCKY series, which quickly sold out and is now being resold at a premium on secondary markets [3]. The company also repurchased 1.9 million shares [7]. - **TCL Electronics**: Established a joint venture with Sony to take over Sony's home entertainment business, reflecting strategic growth initiatives [8]. - **Huazhu Group**: Engaged in strategic partnerships and is expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the hospitality sector [4]. - **Li Ning**: Continues to perform well in the market, maintaining a positive outlook with an "Outperform" rating [1]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant strategic partnerships, such as Saint Bella's collaboration with Yunji Technology to explore AI and robotics in home care [15]. - The IPO of Busy Ming was oversubscribed by over 1,500 times, indicating strong market interest [10]. - Regulatory developments include the State Council's solicitation of opinions on national standards for pre-made dishes, which could impact the food and beverage sector [10].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Jan 2026 中国策略 China Strategy 春节红包行情蓄力稳行，科技与价值各有亮点 Spring Festival "Red Packet" Rally Builds Momentum Steadily, with Highlights in Both Tech and Value 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang 从本周表现看，大盘如期震荡休整，市场整体情绪有所降温之后更健康，半导体走势偏强，航天军工等方向短期 震荡调整之后再次回暖。 我们判断，春节红包行情仍将蓄力稳行。从结构来看依然聚焦"高科技+强周期"，具体而言： ——高科技方向的机会：一方面，可继续延着当前年报预告业绩超预期的方向，深挖半导体特别是存储、储能、 电网设备、化工、创新药等方向。另一方面根据十五五规划相关的产业引领，进一步聚焦掘金国防军工、国产算 力/芯片、太空算力、可控核聚变等领域龙头。 ——价值方向的机会：首先，继续持有黄金及相关权益资产。其次，在震荡中择机布局性价比高、基本面改善的 低位价值股机会，关注港股具有业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the semiconductor industry or Intel, but it highlights strong performance metrics that suggest a positive outlook for the company. Core Insights - Intel delivered a solid fourth quarter for 2025, with revenue reaching $13.7 billion, surpassing both its guidance and consensus estimates, driven by growth in AI infrastructure and server segments [1][8] - The company achieved a non-GAAP gross margin of 37.9%, exceeding guidance by approximately 140 basis points, and a non-GAAP EPS of $0.15, significantly outperforming expectations [1][8] - Intel anticipates a CPU supply shortage in 1Q26 due to depleted buffer inventories, with improvements expected starting in 2Q26 as production efficiency increases [3][11] - The foundry business is progressing, with Intel beginning shipments of its 18A process and reporting steady yield improvements [4][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q25, Intel's revenue was $13.7 billion, exceeding guidance and consensus estimates, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 37.9% and a non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 [1][8] - For 1Q26, Intel forecasts revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with a midpoint of $12.2 billion, lower than consensus due to supply constraints [5][13] Capital Expenditure (CapEx) - CapEx for 2026 is expected to be flat or slightly down due to balancing capital efficiency with demand signals, but a significant yield improvement of 7% to 8% has been reported [2][10] - Intel is securing equipment from suppliers like ASML to mitigate lead time issues, with an expected increase in CapEx in 2027 to support manufacturing expansion [2][10] Supply Chain and Production - Intel identifies 1Q26 as a critical period for CPU supply shortages, primarily due to production shifts towards server wafers [3][11] - The company is experiencing significant demand for CPUs driven by AI workloads, which is expected to sustain shortages for several years [3][11] Foundry Business Development - Intel's foundry revenue reached $4.5 billion, with successful shipments of the 18A process and steady yield improvements [4][12] - Development of the 14A process is on track, with customer engagement expected to lead to firm supply decisions in late 2026 to early 2027 [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ANTA Sports [2][5] Core Insights - ANTA Brand experienced its first low-single-digit negative sell-through growth in 4Q25 after 11 consecutive quarters of positive growth, primarily due to offline sales decline and challenges in the children's category, although it still achieved a full-year low-single-digit growth target [3][10] - FILA Brand achieved mid-single-digit sell-through growth in both 4Q25 and for the full year 2025, with increased discounts and a stock-to-sales ratio slightly above 5x [3][10] - Management is cautious about 2026, planning increased investments in brand and marketing due to significant sporting events such as the Milan Winter Olympics, World Cup, and Asian Games [3][10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for ANTA Sports from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 78.26 billion, RMB 85.00 billion, and RMB 92.04 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 10.5%, 8.6%, and 8.3% respectively [5][12] - Net profit attributable to parent shareholders is expected to be RMB 12.98 billion, RMB 14.34 billion, and RMB 16.24 billion for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -13.1%, 14.6%, and 13.8% respectively [5][12] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 16.0x, 14.5x, and 12.8x [5][12]