2024 年3 月6 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 药明生物 (2269 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$29.09) 2023 年盈利或受公允价值变动损失所拖累 目标价: HK$29.09 当前股价: HK$19.94 • 生物安全法案短期内应该难以落地，但日益加剧的中美地缘冲突或将中长期压制相关 股价上行/下行空间 +46% 公司估值。 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 58.15/14.70 市值 (US$mn) 3,131 • 2023 年和2024 年前两个月，恒指生物医药和纳斯达克生物医药指数皆跑输大盘。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,228 • 下调DCF（WACC：9.9%）目标价至29.09 港币，维持买入。 三个月平均日交易額 163 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 生物安全法案短期内应该难以落地：2024 年1 月26 日，美国议员Mike Gallagher 向美 主要股东 (%) 国众议院提交了生物安全法案（BIOSECURE Act）草案版本，本条例旨在禁止与某些生物 WuXi Biologics Holdings 14 技术供应商签订合约。文件中提到了 ...

2024 年3 月7 日 汽车汽配: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 蔚来汽车 (NIO US, 持有, 目标价: US$5.20) 2023 年亏损持续扩大，阿尔卑斯品牌将于 4Q24 开启交付 目标价: US$5.20 当前股价: US$5.77 • 受汽车销售毛利下滑及经营费用持续增长影响，蔚来2023 年Non-GAAP 亏损达到 股价上行/下行空间 -10% 184.8 亿元，同比扩大54.2%。 52周最高/最低价 (US$) 16.18/4.78 市值 (US$mn) 9,810 • 管理层预计1Q24 交付3.1-3.3 万辆新车；子品牌阿尔卑斯首款车将于4Q24 开启交 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,700 付，预计难以对今年销量产生明显贡献。 三 (U个 S$月 mn平 ) 均日交易額 433 • 维持“持有”评级，下调目标价至5.20 美元。 流通盘占比 (%) 91 2023 年亏损持续扩大，4Q23 汽车销售毛利率环比略有回升。根据蔚来汽车4Q23 业绩报 主要股东 (%) Baillie Gifford &Co. 7 告，公司实现营业收入171.0 亿元，同比提升6.5%，环比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI US) with a target price of US$63.20, indicating a potential upside of 37% from the current price of US$46.21 [1][2][4]. Core Insights - Li Auto's Q4 2023 performance showed significant growth, with GAAP/Non-GAAP net profit increasing by 2,102.1%/368.5% year-over-year, driven by high gross margins and the reversal of deferred tax asset impairment [3][4]. - The company is set to launch new models in March 2024, which is expected to boost sales and create a product matrix of four range-extended and four pure electric models by the end of 2024 [4][5]. - The report projects a strong delivery growth for 2024, with an estimated delivery volume of 726,249 vehicles, representing a 73% year-over-year increase in revenue [7][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, Li Auto delivered 131,805 vehicles, achieving revenue of RMB 41.73 billion, a year-over-year increase of 136.4% [4][9]. - The gross margin for Q4 2023 was reported at 23.5%, with a full-year gross margin of 22.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-over-year [4][6]. - The report forecasts 2024 revenue to reach RMB 214.29 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 17.68 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 46.2% [7][8]. Earnings Estimates - The report has revised the earnings estimates for Li Auto, projecting 2024 EPS at RMB 18.05, up from RMB 15.21, and 2025 EPS at RMB 27.35, up from RMB 21.43 [2][5]. - For 2026, the company is expected to deliver 1,426,734 vehicles, with revenue and Non-GAAP net profit projected at RMB 403.25 billion and RMB 39.41 billion, respectively [7][8]. Market Positioning - Li Auto is positioned to benefit from a strong product lineup and market demand, with management expecting stable monthly sales for new models Mega and L6 to reach 5,000 and 20,000 units, respectively [4][5]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that while Li Auto has a strong market position, it faces increasing competition from other manufacturers launching similar range-extended and electric vehicles [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC with a target price of HK$18.90, down from HK$22.30, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current price of HK$13.58 [1][5][10]. Core Insights - Budweiser APAC achieved a solid performance in 2023 despite a challenging environment, with organic revenue growth of 11.1% and normalized net profit growth of 6.8% to US$917 million [5][9]. - The company is focusing on a premiumization strategy, which is expected to drive both average selling prices and profit margins upward [5][6]. - The outlook for 2024 is positive, with stable growth anticipated in the Chinese market and continued recovery in South Korea [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was US$6,856 million, with a projected increase to US$7,116 million in 2024 and US$7,631 million in 2025 [7][14]. - The normalized net profit for 2023 was US$917 million, expected to rise to US$1,061 million in 2024 and US$1,224 million in 2025 [7][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was US$0.07, projected to increase to US$0.08 in 2024 and US$0.09 in 2025 [7][14]. Market Performance - The company reported a volume growth of 4.6% in 2023, with expectations of a slight increase of 1.1% in 2024 [8][9]. - The average selling price in 2023 was US$739, with a forecasted increase to US$758 in 2024 and US$793 in 2025 [8][10]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 50.4%, expected to improve to 51.6% in 2024 and 53.0% in 2025 [8][10]. Strategic Focus - Budweiser APAC is committed to its high-end product strategy, which has led to a significant increase in the sales volume of premium products [5][6]. - The management's assessment of the Chinese market performance has alleviated investor concerns regarding price competition, with a focus on premiumization continuing to gain traction [5][6]. - The company has implemented price increases in the South Korean market, which is expected to enhance average selling prices and profit margins in 2024 [6][9].