Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the online pharmacy sector, suggesting a "buy" rating for JD Health, with a target price of HK$42.61 [4]. Core Insights - The overall growth rate of China's retail pharmaceutical market is expected to remain low at 5-6% in 2025, with a sales scale reaching approximately 574 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1][4]. - Online pharmacies are experiencing significant growth, with sales reaching 75.8 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, while traditional brick-and-mortar pharmacies face challenges with a closure rate of 5.7% [2][4]. - The report highlights the potential of online pharmacies, driven by changing consumer habits, policy support for prescription drug sales online, and the gradual implementation of online medical insurance payments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The retail pharmaceutical market in China is projected to grow at a rate of 5-6% in 2025, with the market size reaching 574 billion yuan in 2024 [1][4]. - The growth of the retail market is influenced by demographic changes, macroeconomic conditions, and healthcare reforms [1]. Channel Performance - In 2024, online pharmacies accounted for 13.2% of the market share, up from 12% in 2023, while traditional pharmacies saw a mere 2.3% growth in sales [2][4]. - The number of traditional pharmacies closing has accelerated, with 39,000 closures in 2024, indicating increased competition and declining profit margins [2]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the future of online pharmacies, anticipating continued growth due to supportive policies and increasing penetration of online medical insurance [3][4]. - The demand for flu medications in December 2024 led to a peak in sales, although overall sales for the year showed a slight decline compared to 2023 [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the automotive and auto parts industry, reflecting a cautious outlook on the sector's performance in the near term [2]. Core Insights - January saw a decline in overall passenger car sales, with retail sales dropping by 12.1% year-on-year to 1.794 million units, while wholesale sales decreased by 0.3% to 2.101 million units [2]. - New energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales reached 744,000 units in January, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.5% and a penetration rate of 41.5%, up 9 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - The report highlights the launch of BYD's advanced driving system "Tian Shen Zhi Yan," indicating the arrival of a new era of affordable intelligent driving features in the market [4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicle Sales - January passenger vehicle retail sales were 1.794 million units, down 12.1% year-on-year and 31.9% month-on-month [2]. - NEV retail sales were 744,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5% and a penetration rate of 41.5% [2]. - Exports of passenger vehicles reached 380,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% [2]. Battery Installation and Performance - The total installed capacity of power and energy storage batteries in January was 80.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 40.8% [3]. - Power battery sales were 62.9 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 24.6% [3]. - The average energy capacity of new energy vehicles was 48.5 kWh, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% [3]. Intelligent Driving Technology - BYD's "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" system is segmented into three versions, aiming to integrate intelligent driving features into more affordable vehicle models [4]. - The report anticipates that models priced above 100,000 yuan will increasingly include basic intelligent driving functionalities, intensifying market competition [4].

此港股通报告之英文版本于 2025 年 2 月 17 日 中午 12 时 35 分由华兴证券(香港)发 布。中文版由华兴证券的王国晗（证券分析师登记编号: S1680524080001）审核。如果 您想进一步讨论本报告所述观点，请与您在华兴证券的销售代表联系。 预计本季度 IoT 和整体盈利强劲：我们预测小米 4Q24 收入首次超过 1,000 亿人民币大关 ，达到 1,050 亿元，同比提升 40%。分板块来看，我们根据 Canalys 数据（4,270 万部出 货）预测智能手机收入为 490 亿元人民币，且因高端机型贡献提升，单价同比增长 6%至 人民币 1,153 元。IoT 方面，我们预测总收入同比增长 46%至 297 亿元人民币，受益于国 内刺激政策，尤其是家电产品。我们预测互联网服务在强劲广告业务势能下收入同比提升 13%至 89 亿元人民币，并预测季度电车交付量为 7 万台、收入为 163 亿元人民币。我们 预测 4Q24 整体综合毛利率环比提升 20 个基点至 20.6%，并预计随着小米持续扩大规模， 电车毛利率将接近 20%。利润层面，我们预测小米的经调整净利润为 70 亿元人民币，涵 盖 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the Chinese healthcare industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The healthcare reform aims to empower the pharmaceutical industry chain and promote healthy industry development [3]. - The implementation of healthcare reform will further improve the medical security system, enhancing the efficiency and quality of healthcare services [3]. - Key reforms include instant settlement between medical insurance and designated medical institutions, direct settlement for collected drugs and medical supplies, and a unified national review process for drug listings [1][2]. Summary by Sections Instant Settlement - The push for instant settlement between medical insurance and designated medical institutions is a significant step towards improving service efficiency. By the end of 2025, approximately 80% of coordinated areas nationwide are expected to achieve this service [1]. - The realization of instant settlement relies on the construction of healthcare information platforms and the improvement of data sharing mechanisms, which will significantly shorten the payment cycle of healthcare funds [1]. Direct Settlement - The direct settlement policy for collected drugs and medical supplies will accelerate the cash flow for pharmaceutical companies and reduce operational costs [2]. - This policy is a key measure for optimizing the business environment in the healthcare sector [2]. National Review Process - The establishment of a unified national portal for drug listing applications will simplify the process, allowing companies to submit materials once for verification across multiple provinces, thus reducing administrative costs and speeding up market access for new products [2]. - This initiative is expected to enhance the market competitiveness of pharmaceutical products and promote innovation to meet patient demands for new and specialty drugs [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Smoore International with a target price of HK$16.50, indicating an upside potential of 18% from the current price of HK$13.98 [1][10][16]. Core Insights - Smoore International is expected to face short-term performance pressure due to competition from illegal products, particularly in the U.S. market, which may lead to a slowdown in revenue growth [7][10]. - The launch of the GloHilo product by British American Tobacco, which is exclusively supplied by Smoore, could provide a long-term growth opportunity for the company [6][10]. - The revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward due to the anticipated prolonged negative impact from illegal e-cigarette products and increased price competition [13][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating remains "Buy" with a revised target price of HK$16.50, up from HK$11.80, reflecting a 40% increase [2]. Financial Adjustments - The target price has been increased to HK$16.50 from HK$11.80, while the 2024E EPS has been reduced by 20% to RMB 0.23, and the 2025E EPS has been cut by 33% to RMB 0.24 [2][14]. - Revenue estimates for 2024E and 2025E have been adjusted to RMB 11,761 million and RMB 12,857 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 12% and 15% from previous estimates [5][14]. Market Performance - Smoore's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a 52-week high of HK$15.26 and a low of HK$4.89, indicating significant volatility in the market [1]. Growth Opportunities - The GloHilo product launch is seen as a potential driver for long-term growth, especially if it successfully penetrates larger markets like Japan and the EU [6][8]. - The global HNB market is projected to be valued at USD 17 billion in 2024, with Smoore's involvement in this segment expected to enhance its profitability significantly [16]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to decline by 18.6%, with revenue growth expected to slow to 5.3% [7][13]. - The report anticipates that HNB products will not significantly contribute to Smoore's revenue until 2026, with modest growth expected in the interim [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla (TSLA US) with a target price of $429.00, indicating a potential upside of 15% from the current price of $374.32 [1][8][11]. Core Insights - Tesla's sales are expected to recover due to the introduction of new low-cost models, despite current challenges with Model 3 and Model Y sales [6][11]. - The company is anticipated to see significant advancements in its Optimus, FSD, and Robotaxi businesses by 2025, which could support its valuation [7][11]. - The target price has been raised from $270.00 to $429.00, reflecting a positive outlook on Tesla's operational improvements and market position [2][8][11]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2025 is $103.07 billion, with a net profit of $7.65 billion and an EPS of $2.55 [10][13]. - The expected gross margin for 2025 is 17.4%, with a gradual increase to 19.9% by 2027 [10][13]. - The report highlights a decrease in EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026, down by 28% and 23% respectively, due to anticipated sales pressures [2][14]. Market Comparison - Tesla's revenue forecast for 2025 is $103.07 billion, which is 12% lower than previous estimates, while the EPS is also adjusted downwards [5][13]. - The report compares Tesla's valuation metrics with peers, indicating a P/E ratio of 146.6 for 2025, which reflects the market's high expectations for growth [17][21]. Product and Business Development - The introduction of the new low-cost Model 2 is expected to boost Tesla's delivery numbers significantly in 2025, with projected deliveries of 1.92 million vehicles [6][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of Tesla's advancements in autonomous driving and robotics, which are seen as key growth areas for the company [7][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to Tsingtao Brewery-H (168 HK) with a target price of HK$56.20 [2][4] - The target price represents a 7% upside from the current price of HK$52.55 [3] - The rating was downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" due to a weaker macro environment and lower growth expectations [4][10] Core Views - Tsingtao Brewery's sales decline is expected to narrow in 4Q24, with a projected year-on-year drop of 2.7%, compared to a 5.1% drop in 3Q24 [8] - The company's gross margin is expected to benefit from lower raw material costs, with a 1.6% year-on-year decline in cost per ton [8] - Adjusted net loss is expected to narrow slightly to RMB 625 million in 4Q24 from RMB 714 million in 4Q23, driven by better gross margins and operating expense control [8] - The new chairman is expected to continue the current strategy, focusing on efficiency improvement and margin expansion [9] - Revenue and net profit are expected to grow at a single-digit rate in 2025, with free cash flow increasing from RMB 1.2 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.6 billion in 2024, providing room for shareholder returns [9] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 29.527 billion, a 6.4% decline from 2023A, while 2025E revenue is expected to grow by 3.0% to RMB 30.418 billion [12] - Adjusted EPS for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 3.16, a 3% decline from the previous estimate of RMB 3.25 [4] - Adjusted net profit for 2025E is expected to grow by 7.7% to RMB 4.662 billion, with free cash flow increasing significantly [9] - Gross margin is expected to improve to 35.9% in 2024E and 36.2% in 2025E, driven by stable raw material prices [15] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The target price of HK$56.20 is based on a 7.6x 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with global peers [10] - Tsingtao Brewery-H's 2025E P/E ratio of 14.3x is comparable to its domestic peers, such as China Resources Beer (12.2x) and Budweiser APAC (13.9x) [16] - The company's 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.9x is slightly lower than the global peer average of 7.6x [16] Market and Industry Outlook - The domestic beer market is expected to stabilize, with Tsingtao Brewery's sales volume projected to grow by 1.0% in 2025, while the average price per ton is expected to increase by 2.0% [9] - The government is expected to continue introducing consumption stimulus plans to aid market recovery [9] - Competition in the high-end beer market may ease, potentially benefiting Tsingtao Brewery's revenue growth [23] Key Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024E/2025E/2026E were lowered by 1.8%/3.1%/3.1% due to weaker-than-expected domestic consumption recovery [14] - Adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024E/2025E/2026E were revised down by 2.8%/7.1%/6.9% [15] - Gross margin forecasts for 2025E/2026E were reduced by 1.0/0.9 percentage points, reflecting lower-than-expected price growth [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (291 HK) with a target price of HK$28.60, down from HK$31.30, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of HK$24.00 [2][4][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the trend of premiumization in the beer segment continues, albeit at a slower pace, while the baijiu business faces challenges due to industry oversupply [8][9]. - It anticipates that China Resources Beer may experience its first year-on-year revenue decline since 2020 in 2024, primarily due to weak demand for alcoholic beverages amid macroeconomic pressures [8][9]. - The report projects a slight recovery in beer sales in 2025, with an expected price increase of 2.2% and a volume growth of 0.7%, benefiting from a recovery in on-the-go consumption channels [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Adjustments - The target price has been revised down to HK$28.60 from HK$31.30, reflecting adjustments in earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 due to slower-than-expected growth in the baijiu segment [4][10][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been reduced by 1%, 8%, and 9% respectively [4][14]. Revenue and Profit Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 38,566 million, a decrease of 1.7% from previous estimates, with a slight increase to RMB 39,742 million in 2025 [11][15]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow by 7% in 2024, driven by lower raw material costs and controlled sales and marketing expenses [8][11]. Market Comparison - The report compares China Resources Beer’s valuation metrics with its peers, noting that its target EV/EBITDA multiple remains at 8 times for 2025, which is at the lower end of the range compared to global beer and domestic baijiu companies [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HK$11.60, reflecting a potential upside of 61% from the current price of HK$7.19 [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing challenges in the Chinese market due to macroeconomic factors, high inventory levels, and a shift in channel dynamics, which negatively impacted sales and pricing [8][9]. - Despite strong sales momentum in the South Korean market, price increases are expected to contribute less to revenue growth moving forward [8]. - The report projects a significant decline in normalized EBITDA for Q4 2024, estimating a year-on-year decrease of 25.8% due to reduced sales and rising costs [9][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at US$6,280 million, down from US$6,305 million previously, reflecting a 0.4% decrease [14]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at US$784 million, a reduction of 6.5% from the previous estimate of US$839 million [14]. - The report anticipates a normalized EBITDA margin decline due to increased costs and lower sales volumes, particularly in the Chinese market [9][13]. Market Analysis - The Chinese market continues to face challenges from a high base effect and weak consumer demand, leading to a projected decline in sales volume [8][9]. - The South Korean market has shown resilience with strong sales, but the impact of price increases is expected to diminish [8]. - The report emphasizes the need for Budweiser APAC to navigate these market dynamics effectively to maintain profitability [9]. Valuation - The target price of HK$11.60 is based on a P/E ratio of 22.4 times the estimated earnings for 2025, which is below the historical average [15]. - The current valuation is considered attractive, with a projected dividend yield of 5.4% for 2025 [15]. - The report suggests that Budweiser APAC's valuation remains compelling compared to its peers in the industry [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zai Lab with a target price of US$62.32, indicating a potential upside of 153% from the current price of US$24.60 [1][4][5]. Core Insights - Zai Lab is experiencing accelerated global pipeline development, with short to medium-term performance expected to continue growing due to strong revenue and controlled expenditures. The company reported total revenue of US$290 million in Q3 2024, with ZEJULA's operating profit margin increasing from below 10% in Q3 2022 to 37% in Q3 2024 [1][2]. - The introduction of Povetacicept, a dual antagonist for lgA nephropathy, expands Zai Lab's commercialization pipeline, with significant market potential in China where there are approximately 3 to 5 million patients [2][3]. - The company anticipates a wave of growth with the expected approval of key drugs such as Bemarituzumab and KarTX between 2025 and 2026, and plans to launch over 15 products by 2028, projecting revenues of US$2 billion by that year [3][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$267 million in 2023 to US$562 million in 2025, with a gross profit increasing from US$171 million to US$364 million in the same period [4][9]. - The net loss is expected to narrow from US$334 million in 2023 to US$205 million in 2025, with the company aiming for breakeven by Q4 2025 [4][5][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from (US$3.42) in 2023 to US$0.22 in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [4][9].