Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla (TSLA US) with a target price of $429.00, indicating a potential upside of 15% from the current price of $374.32 [1][8][11]. Core Insights - Tesla's sales are expected to recover due to the introduction of new low-cost models, despite current challenges with Model 3 and Model Y sales [6][11]. - The company is anticipated to see significant advancements in its Optimus, FSD, and Robotaxi businesses by 2025, which could support its valuation [7][11]. - The target price has been raised from $270.00 to $429.00, reflecting a positive outlook on Tesla's operational improvements and market position [2][8][11]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2025 is $103.07 billion, with a net profit of $7.65 billion and an EPS of $2.55 [10][13]. - The expected gross margin for 2025 is 17.4%, with a gradual increase to 19.9% by 2027 [10][13]. - The report highlights a decrease in EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026, down by 28% and 23% respectively, due to anticipated sales pressures [2][14]. Market Comparison - Tesla's revenue forecast for 2025 is $103.07 billion, which is 12% lower than previous estimates, while the EPS is also adjusted downwards [5][13]. - The report compares Tesla's valuation metrics with peers, indicating a P/E ratio of 146.6 for 2025, which reflects the market's high expectations for growth [17][21]. Product and Business Development - The introduction of the new low-cost Model 2 is expected to boost Tesla's delivery numbers significantly in 2025, with projected deliveries of 1.92 million vehicles [6][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of Tesla's advancements in autonomous driving and robotics, which are seen as key growth areas for the company [7][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to Tsingtao Brewery-H (168 HK) with a target price of HK$56.20 [2][4] - The target price represents a 7% upside from the current price of HK$52.55 [3] - The rating was downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" due to a weaker macro environment and lower growth expectations [4][10] Core Views - Tsingtao Brewery's sales decline is expected to narrow in 4Q24, with a projected year-on-year drop of 2.7%, compared to a 5.1% drop in 3Q24 [8] - The company's gross margin is expected to benefit from lower raw material costs, with a 1.6% year-on-year decline in cost per ton [8] - Adjusted net loss is expected to narrow slightly to RMB 625 million in 4Q24 from RMB 714 million in 4Q23, driven by better gross margins and operating expense control [8] - The new chairman is expected to continue the current strategy, focusing on efficiency improvement and margin expansion [9] - Revenue and net profit are expected to grow at a single-digit rate in 2025, with free cash flow increasing from RMB 1.2 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.6 billion in 2024, providing room for shareholder returns [9] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 29.527 billion, a 6.4% decline from 2023A, while 2025E revenue is expected to grow by 3.0% to RMB 30.418 billion [12] - Adjusted EPS for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 3.16, a 3% decline from the previous estimate of RMB 3.25 [4] - Adjusted net profit for 2025E is expected to grow by 7.7% to RMB 4.662 billion, with free cash flow increasing significantly [9] - Gross margin is expected to improve to 35.9% in 2024E and 36.2% in 2025E, driven by stable raw material prices [15] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The target price of HK$56.20 is based on a 7.6x 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with global peers [10] - Tsingtao Brewery-H's 2025E P/E ratio of 14.3x is comparable to its domestic peers, such as China Resources Beer (12.2x) and Budweiser APAC (13.9x) [16] - The company's 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.9x is slightly lower than the global peer average of 7.6x [16] Market and Industry Outlook - The domestic beer market is expected to stabilize, with Tsingtao Brewery's sales volume projected to grow by 1.0% in 2025, while the average price per ton is expected to increase by 2.0% [9] - The government is expected to continue introducing consumption stimulus plans to aid market recovery [9] - Competition in the high-end beer market may ease, potentially benefiting Tsingtao Brewery's revenue growth [23] Key Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024E/2025E/2026E were lowered by 1.8%/3.1%/3.1% due to weaker-than-expected domestic consumption recovery [14] - Adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024E/2025E/2026E were revised down by 2.8%/7.1%/6.9% [15] - Gross margin forecasts for 2025E/2026E were reduced by 1.0/0.9 percentage points, reflecting lower-than-expected price growth [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (291 HK) with a target price of HK$28.60, down from HK$31.30, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of HK$24.00 [2][4][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the trend of premiumization in the beer segment continues, albeit at a slower pace, while the baijiu business faces challenges due to industry oversupply [8][9]. - It anticipates that China Resources Beer may experience its first year-on-year revenue decline since 2020 in 2024, primarily due to weak demand for alcoholic beverages amid macroeconomic pressures [8][9]. - The report projects a slight recovery in beer sales in 2025, with an expected price increase of 2.2% and a volume growth of 0.7%, benefiting from a recovery in on-the-go consumption channels [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Adjustments - The target price has been revised down to HK$28.60 from HK$31.30, reflecting adjustments in earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 due to slower-than-expected growth in the baijiu segment [4][10][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been reduced by 1%, 8%, and 9% respectively [4][14]. Revenue and Profit Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 38,566 million, a decrease of 1.7% from previous estimates, with a slight increase to RMB 39,742 million in 2025 [11][15]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow by 7% in 2024, driven by lower raw material costs and controlled sales and marketing expenses [8][11]. Market Comparison - The report compares China Resources Beer’s valuation metrics with its peers, noting that its target EV/EBITDA multiple remains at 8 times for 2025, which is at the lower end of the range compared to global beer and domestic baijiu companies [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HK$11.60, reflecting a potential upside of 61% from the current price of HK$7.19 [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing challenges in the Chinese market due to macroeconomic factors, high inventory levels, and a shift in channel dynamics, which negatively impacted sales and pricing [8][9]. - Despite strong sales momentum in the South Korean market, price increases are expected to contribute less to revenue growth moving forward [8]. - The report projects a significant decline in normalized EBITDA for Q4 2024, estimating a year-on-year decrease of 25.8% due to reduced sales and rising costs [9][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at US$6,280 million, down from US$6,305 million previously, reflecting a 0.4% decrease [14]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at US$784 million, a reduction of 6.5% from the previous estimate of US$839 million [14]. - The report anticipates a normalized EBITDA margin decline due to increased costs and lower sales volumes, particularly in the Chinese market [9][13]. Market Analysis - The Chinese market continues to face challenges from a high base effect and weak consumer demand, leading to a projected decline in sales volume [8][9]. - The South Korean market has shown resilience with strong sales, but the impact of price increases is expected to diminish [8]. - The report emphasizes the need for Budweiser APAC to navigate these market dynamics effectively to maintain profitability [9]. Valuation - The target price of HK$11.60 is based on a P/E ratio of 22.4 times the estimated earnings for 2025, which is below the historical average [15]. - The current valuation is considered attractive, with a projected dividend yield of 5.4% for 2025 [15]. - The report suggests that Budweiser APAC's valuation remains compelling compared to its peers in the industry [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zai Lab with a target price of US$62.32, indicating a potential upside of 153% from the current price of US$24.60 [1][4][5]. Core Insights - Zai Lab is experiencing accelerated global pipeline development, with short to medium-term performance expected to continue growing due to strong revenue and controlled expenditures. The company reported total revenue of US$290 million in Q3 2024, with ZEJULA's operating profit margin increasing from below 10% in Q3 2022 to 37% in Q3 2024 [1][2]. - The introduction of Povetacicept, a dual antagonist for lgA nephropathy, expands Zai Lab's commercialization pipeline, with significant market potential in China where there are approximately 3 to 5 million patients [2][3]. - The company anticipates a wave of growth with the expected approval of key drugs such as Bemarituzumab and KarTX between 2025 and 2026, and plans to launch over 15 products by 2028, projecting revenues of US$2 billion by that year [3][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$267 million in 2023 to US$562 million in 2025, with a gross profit increasing from US$171 million to US$364 million in the same period [4][9]. - The net loss is expected to narrow from US$334 million in 2023 to US$205 million in 2025, with the company aiming for breakeven by Q4 2025 [4][5][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from (US$3.42) in 2023 to US$0.22 in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price of HK$520.00, implying a 37% upside from the current price of HK$380.00 [1][2] Core Views - Tencent is well-positioned for sustained strong performance in 2025, driven by robust growth in its gaming and advertising segments [7] - The company's gaming revenue is expected to grow by 16% YoY in 4Q24 and 8% YoY in 2025, supported by evergreen titles and new releases like *Dungeon & Fighter Mobile* [8] - Advertising revenue is projected to grow 15% YoY in 4Q24 and 2025, with video ads and WeChat Channels gaining market share [9] - Fintech and business services revenue is forecasted to grow 5% YoY in 2025, driven by economic recovery and new tools like WeChat Mini Shops [9] Financial Performance - Tencent's adjusted operating profit margin is expected to expand to 34.7% in 4Q24 and 37.9% in 2025, supported by a shift towards higher-margin businesses [10] - The company's adjusted net profit margin is projected to rise to 30.3% in 4Q24 and 34.1% in 2025 [10] - Revenue is forecasted to grow 9% YoY in 4Q24 and 8% YoY in 2025, with net income reaching RMB 240.9 billion in 2025 [20][21] Gaming Segment - Domestic gaming revenue is expected to grow 16% YoY in 4Q24, driven by strong performance of *Dungeon & Fighter Mobile* and deferred revenue of over RMB 100 billion [8] - International gaming revenue is projected to grow 17% YoY in 4Q24, supported by the release of *Path of Exile 2* and contributions from Supercell's *Brawl Stars* [8] - Tencent's gaming pipeline includes titles like *Honor of Kings World* and *Valorant Mobile*, set for release in 2025 [17] Advertising Segment - Social advertising revenue is expected to grow 16% YoY in 4Q24, while media advertising revenue is forecasted to grow 4% YoY [9] - WeChat Channels and video ads are gaining market share, contributing to the segment's outperformance [9] Valuation - The SOTP valuation for Tencent is HK$5.4 trillion, with the gaming segment valued at HK$1.6 trillion (18x 2025E P/E) and the advertising segment at HK$1.2 trillion (18x 2025E P/E) [23][24] - The target price of HK$520.00 is based on a 19x 2025E P/E multiple [10][23] Peer Comparison - Tencent's 2025E P/E of 14.0x is lower than global gaming peers like EA (17.0x) and Take-Two (21.3x) [25] - The company's 2025E P/S of 4.7x is higher than cloud service peers like Alibaba (1.4x) and Baidu (1.5x) [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$208.22, representing a potential upside of 76% from the current price of HK$118.20 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company is advancing towards profitability by enhancing its market position and R&D capabilities, with a focus on reducing drug development costs through an internal clinical team [1][2]. - The company has a robust pipeline with significant potential, including key commercial products and a strong internal R&D pipeline consisting of 25 Phase I projects, 8 Phase II projects, and 7 Phase III projects [2][5]. - Financial performance is improving, with expectations of positive GAAP operating profit in 2025, driven by effective cost control and a reduction in reliance on CROs [2][5]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated as "Buy" with a target price of HK$208.22, corresponding to a 5.8x sales multiple for 2025 [3][4]. Market Position and R&D Strength - The company has established a global internal clinical development team of 3,600 members, significantly reducing reliance on CROs from 77% in 2019 to 5% in 2024 [1]. - Strategic focus areas for 2025 include consolidating leadership in hematology, accelerating internal pipeline development, and enhancing financial performance [1]. Pipeline and Product Potential - The key commercial product, Zebutini, is the first BTK inhibitor in the U.S. and shows excellent efficacy in treating blood cancers [2]. - The company’s pipeline includes high-potential early-stage candidates such as CDK4i and panKRASi, which are expected to drive future growth [2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved Non-GAAP profitability, and by Q3 2024, it recorded positive operating cash flow for the first time [2]. - The company forecasts a positive GAAP operating profit for the full year of 2025, supported by effective cost management strategies [2][5]. Key Financial Data - Projected revenues are expected to grow from US$2,459 million in 2023 to US$4,904 million in 2025, with a net profit turning positive in 2025 at US$137 million [4][12]. - The company’s gross profit is projected to increase from US$2,080 million in 2023 to US$3,857 million in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the automotive market in 2025, with expected retail sales of passenger vehicles and new energy vehicles (NEVs) reaching 23.65 million and 13.10 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 3% and 20% [4]. Core Insights - The continuation of subsidy policies is expected to support sustained growth in passenger vehicle sales in 2025, with a focus on the demand for new energy vehicles [4]. - In December, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.635 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, while NEV retail sales grew by 40.8% [2]. - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 49.4% in December, with a projected annual penetration rate of 55% in 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicle Sales - In 2024, retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles are projected to be 22.96 million and 27.21 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6.1% and 13.7% [2]. - December saw a retail sales increase of 12.0% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, with wholesale sales up by 12.3% month-on-month [2]. New Energy Vehicle Sales - In 2024, NEV retail and wholesale sales are expected to reach 10.90 million and 12.16 million units, with year-on-year growth of 40.8% and 56.8% [2]. - The cumulative penetration rate for NEVs in 2024 is projected to be 47.5%, up from 34.6% in 2023 [6]. Battery Industry - The total installed capacity of power batteries in 2024 is expected to reach 548.6 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.5% [3]. - In December, the installed capacity of power batteries was 75.4 GWh, with a month-on-month growth of 57.3% [3]. Export Performance - In December, passenger vehicle exports reached 404,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, with total exports for the year at 4.791 million units, up 25.0% [2]. - NEV exports in December were 122,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 24.3% for the entire year [2]. Policy Support - The subsidy policy for vehicle trade-ins will remain consistent with 2024, with total subsidy demand expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [4]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in driving consumer demand and supporting the automotive market's growth trajectory [4].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating for the Chinese healthcare sector in 2025, driven by the "Three Medicals" (medical, healthcare insurance, and pharmaceuticals) coordinated development and incremental policy benefits [4][5][6] Core Views - The Chinese healthcare sector is expected to enter a high-quality development stage in 2025, with reforms focusing on the coordinated development of medical, healthcare insurance, and pharmaceutical sectors [4][5] - The sector is anticipated to see a valuation recovery and earnings improvement, with A/H-listed healthcare companies expected to achieve revenue and profit growth of around 10% in 2025 [5][6] - Key drivers include the gradual weakening of negative factors, the release of incremental policy benefits from the "Three Medicals" coordinated development, and the recovery of industry performance from the low point in 2023-2024 [5][6] Sector Outlook and Stock Recommendations Chemical Drugs and Innovative Drugs - The Chinese pharmaceutical market is shifting towards innovation-driven growth, with **Hansoh Pharma (3692 HK, Buy, Target Price: HK$24.15)** and **Zai Lab (ZLAB US, Buy, Target Price: US$62.32)** recommended due to their strong innovative drug pipelines and partnerships [6][26] Biologics - **Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300601 CH, Buy, Target Price: RMB33.69)** is recommended for its competitive positioning in multi-valent and adult vaccines, as well as its innovation-driven growth potential [6][27] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - **Mayinglong Pharmaceutical (600993 CH, Buy, Target Price: RMB37.49)** and **Dong-E-E-Jiao (000423 CH, Buy, Target Price: RMB83.78)** are recommended for their strong brand power and potential to benefit from policy support and aging population demand [6][27] Internet Healthcare - **JD Health (6618 HK, Buy, Target Price: HK$42.61)** is recommended due to its strong supply chain and healthcare service capabilities, benefiting from policy support and increased penetration of online healthcare services [6][27] Medical Devices - **Mindray Medical (300760 CH, Buy, Target Price: RMB418.10)** is recommended as a leading medical device company expected to benefit from the recovery of medical system tenders and domestic infrastructure demand [6][28] Healthcare Services - **Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK, Buy, Target Price: HK$4.78)** and **Hengjian Medical (6078 HK, Buy, Target Price: HK$44.96)** are recommended for their strong positions in assisted reproductive services and oncology, respectively, benefiting from policy support and demand release [6][28] Contract Research Organizations (CROs) - **WuXi Biologics (2269 HK, Buy, Target Price: HK$26.12)** is recommended for its leading position in the CRO industry, expected to benefit from global R&D demand recovery and improved profitability in 2025 [6][28] Key Policy Impacts Medical Reforms - Medical service price adjustments are expected to benefit high-value medical technical services, particularly in oncology and assisted reproductive services [22][33] - The anti-corruption campaign in the healthcare sector is expected to promote long-term healthy development, benefiting sectors such as medical informationization, cost-effective domestic medical devices, and private medical institutions [22][52] Healthcare Insurance Reforms - Healthcare insurance payment reforms are expected to shorten reimbursement cycles, improving cash flow for medical service providers, chemical drug manufacturers, TCM companies, and medical device firms [22][81] - Commercial health insurance is expected to become a new incremental source of healthcare payments, benefiting hospitals, online/offline pharmacies, and innovative drug companies [22][94] Pharmaceutical Reforms - Pharmaceutical reforms will focus on encouraging innovation and strengthening regulation, with policies aimed at improving drug review and approval processes, pricing reforms, and supporting industry financing [22][23] Market Outlook - The Chinese healthcare sector is expected to see steady growth in both supply and demand in 2025, with private hospitals driving supply growth and public hospital reforms improving service quality [24] - The sector is expected to benefit from the optimization of both supply and demand sides, with medical reforms and the gradual weakening of negative factors providing a solid foundation for long-term development [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) with a target price of HK$26.12, representing a 48% upside from the current price of HK$17.60 [1] - The DCF (WACC: 9.9%) target price of HK$26.12 corresponds to a 2025 P/E ratio of 26x [5] Core Views - WuXi Biologics demonstrates strong competitiveness in the high-end market, with 151 new projects signed in 2024, over half from the US, including 13 Phase III and commercialization projects [3] - The company's technical platforms are leading, with 8 projects generating over $200 million annually, 10 projects over $100 million, and 8 projects over $50 million [4] - WuXi Biologics has a significant global presence, with multiple centers and bases in China, the US, and Europe, capturing 70% market share in CDMO services for Chinese innovative drug overseas projects in 2024 [4] - The company expects accelerated revenue growth in 2025, driven by new project signings in research services (R), shortened delivery times in development (D), and a substantial number of PPQ projects in commercial manufacturing (M) [4] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 15,269 million in 2022 to RMB 23,611 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 12% [6] - Gross profit is expected to increase from RMB 6,724 million in 2022 to RMB 9,336 million in 2026 [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from RMB 4,420 million in 2022 to RMB 4,188 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 7% [6] - EPS is estimated to grow from RMB 1.01 in 2022 to RMB 0.96 in 2026 [6] Operational Highlights - WuXi Biologics completed 16 PPQ projects in 2024, with a success rate exceeding 98%, and expects to complete 24 PPQ projects in 2025 [3] - The company has significantly reduced project timelines, with monoclonal antibody projects in North America taking only 9 months from DNA to IND, and autoimmune projects delivered in 6 months, well ahead of industry standards [3] - The company's digital transformation and geopolitical dynamics are expected to further enhance operational efficiency [4]