Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$19.45, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HK$16.96 [1][5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates low single-digit growth in both revenue and profit for 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 4.0% to RMB 431.1 billion and a net profit growth of 2.1% to RMB 45.9 billion [3][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to face significant operational pressure, with potential revenue and profit declines due to high base effects from the previous year [4][5]. - The valuation is based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being RMB 0.82, RMB 0.91, and RMB 0.96 respectively [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 431.1 billion, with a 4.0% year-on-year growth. The net profit is projected to be RMB 45.9 billion, reflecting a 2.1% increase [3][6]. - The report outlines a slight increase in gross margin to 61.5% for 2024, driven by lower beef and lamb prices [3][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts downwards for 2024-2026 by 6.5%, 9.2%, and 10.5% respectively, while net profit estimates are adjusted upwards by 2.1% for 2024 and 1.6% for 2025, but down by 0.4% for 2026 [7][6]. Market Position - Haidilao's market capitalization is approximately US$12.16 billion, with a current share count of 5,574 million [1][5]. - The report highlights that the company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory despite facing challenges in the upcoming quarters [5][6].

资料来源: FactSet Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 20.0 23.5 27.0 30.5 34.0 海尔智家-A 上证指数 2025 年 3 月 12 日 耐用消费品及服装: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 海尔智家-A (600690 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB34.50) | 目标价: RMB34.50 | 当前股价: RMB27.15 | | --- | --- | | 股价上行/下行空间 | +27% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (RMB) | 35.37/23.10 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 66,866 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | 9,383 | | 三个月平均日交易額 | 162 | | (US$mn) | | | 流通盘占比 (%) | 100 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 25 | | 海尔卡奥斯 | 13 | | 海尔集团 | 11 | | 按 2025 年 3 月 11 日收市数据 | | | 资料来源: FactSet | | 主要调整 | | 现值 | 原值 | 变动 | ...

2025 年 3 月 13 日 科技硬件: 中性 证券研究报告 / 点评报告 韦尔股份 (603501 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB146.00) | | | | 目标价: RMB146.00 | 当前股价: RMB140.88 | | --- | --- | | 股价上行/下行空间 | +4% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (RMB) | 161.96/81.41 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 23,686 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | 1,216 | | 三个月平均日交易額 | 486 | | (US$mn) | | | 流通盘占比 (%) | 53 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | 虞仁荣 | 30 | | 香港中央結算有限公司 | 15 | | 绍兴市韦豪股权投资 | 6 | | 按 2025 年 3 月 12 日收市数据 | | | 资料来源: FactSet | | 股价表现 资料来源: FactSet Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 韦尔股份 上证指数 看好公司 2025-2026 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) with a target price of HK$34.10, indicating a potential upside of +30% from the current price of HK$26.20 [1]. Core Views - The report anticipates a low double-digit growth in net profit for 2025, driven by continued digital transformation in both domestic and overseas markets [6][7]. - Domestic revenue is expected to grow approximately 4% year-on-year in 2025, while overseas revenue is projected to increase by around 5% [6][7]. - The overall revenue growth for 2025 is estimated at about 4%, with a focus on product innovation and market expansion strategies [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the estimated revenue is projected to be RMB 283.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4% [7][9]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to reach RMB 21.2 billion, reflecting a growth of 10.7% compared to 2024 [7][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 2.26, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 10.5 [6][7]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic sales are projected to grow by approximately 4%, with specific growth in the refrigerator and washing machine segments [4]. - The air conditioning segment is expected to see a revenue increase of around 8% due to improved sales strategies and market conditions [4]. - Overseas revenue growth is anticipated at about 5%, with significant contributions from North America and Europe [5]. Valuation - The target price of HK$34.10 corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14 times the estimated earnings for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to current market prices [6][7]. - The report maintains a 10% discount rate for Haier's A/H shares, reinforcing the target price stability [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HK$19.30, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HK$16.68 [1][3][5]. Core Views - The report forecasts a revenue growth of 2.2% and a decline in net profit of 3.3% for 2024, with expected revenues of RMB 28.2 billion and net profits of RMB 3.08 billion [2][5]. - The company is entering a stable development phase, with projected revenue growth of 3.9% in 2025, reaching RMB 29.33 billion, and a net profit increase of 6.4% to RMB 3.28 billion [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for Li Ning are as follows: - 2024E Revenue: RMB 28,217 million, a 2.2% increase YoY - 2024E Net Profit: RMB 3,083 million, a 3.3% decrease YoY - 2025E Revenue: RMB 29,326 million, a 3.9% increase YoY - 2025E Net Profit: RMB 3,281 million, a 6.4% increase YoY [4][6][7]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in gross margin in 2H24, with an overall gross margin of 49.4% for 2024, reflecting a 1.0 percentage point increase YoY [1][2]. Valuation - The report maintains the earnings forecast and target price, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 14 times for 2025 [3][5]. - The estimated P/E ratios for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024E P/E: 13.5 - 2025E P/E: 12.1 - 2026E P/E: 11.4 [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28, representing a potential upside of 76% from the current price of HK$13.20 [1][9]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported strong performance in 2024, with revenue growth of 9.7% and a significant increase in adjusted net profit by 187%, exceeding management's initial guidance [6][7]. - Despite the strong 2024 results, management's conservative guidance for 2025 suggests low double-digit revenue growth and single-digit adjusted net profit growth, which has led to market dissatisfaction and a subsequent drop in stock price [7][8]. - The current valuation of JD Logistics appears attractive, trading at 10.6 times the 2025 P/E ratio, which is lower compared to peers in the logistics sector [8][15]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating remains "Buy" with a target price adjustment from HK$22.90 to HK$23.28, reflecting a 2% increase [2][9]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 reached RMB 182,838 million, with a projected revenue of RMB 205,510 million for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 12.4% [10][20]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 6,867 million, with expectations of RMB 7,353 million for 2025, marking a 7.1% increase [10][20]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 to RMB 1.18, up from RMB 1.07, reflecting a 10% increase [2][14]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 3.6% for 2025, slightly improving from previous estimates [14][20]. Valuation - The DCF model indicates a target price of HK$23.28, with a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [15][16]. - The current stock price implies a significant discount compared to the target price, suggesting limited downside risk [8][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28, representing a potential upside of 76% from the current price of HK$13.20 [1][9]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported strong performance in 2024, with revenue growth of 9.7% and a significant increase in adjusted net profit by 187%, exceeding management's initial guidance [6][7]. - Despite the strong 2024 results, management's conservative guidance for 2025 suggests low double-digit revenue growth and single-digit adjusted net profit growth, which has led to market dissatisfaction and a subsequent drop in stock price [7][8]. - The current valuation of JD Logistics appears attractive, trading at 10.6 times the 2025 P/E ratio, which is lower compared to peers in the logistics sector [8][15]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was RMB 182,838 million, with a projected revenue of RMB 205,510 million for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.4% [10][20]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 6,867 million, with an expected increase to RMB 7,353 million in 2025, indicating a growth of 7.1% [10][20]. - The gross profit margin improved from 7.6% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2024, with a projected margin of 10.7% for 2025 [10][20]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report has adjusted the earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing revenue estimates by 7.3% and 9.0% respectively, based on the strong performance in 2024 [13][14]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025 is now projected at RMB 1.18, up from RMB 1.07, reflecting a 10.5% increase [14][15]. Valuation Analysis - The target price of HK$23.28 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, maintaining a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [15][16]. - The current stock price is seen as having limited downside potential due to the conservative guidance and low market expectations [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Health with a target price of HK$55.17, representing a potential upside of 54% from the current price of HK$35.75 [2][15]. Core Insights - JD Health's revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 58.16 billion, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth, with a significant profit increase of 94% to RMB 4.16 billion [6][9]. - The company is expected to continue optimizing its product mix, leading to a gross profit increase to RMB 13.31 billion in 2024, up 12.2% [6]. - The report highlights the robust growth in product sales and the optimization of the omnichannel layout, with product sales revenue expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2025 to 2027 [7]. - JD Health is expanding its healthcare service ecosystem, with service revenue projected to grow at a CAGR of 17% from 2025 to 2027 [8]. Financial Summary - The financial data indicates that JD Health's revenue is expected to reach RMB 67.09 billion in 2025, with a gross profit of RMB 15.86 billion and a net profit of RMB 4.53 billion [9][21]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025 is projected at RMB 1.41, with a growth trajectory leading to RMB 1.97 by 2027 [9][12]. - The report notes a significant increase in operating efficiency, with operating profit expected to rise by 132.9% in 2024 [6][10]. Valuation - The DCF valuation method used in the report results in a target price of HK$55.17, which is based on a WACC of 9.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [15][16]. - The target price corresponds to a P/S ratio of 2.4 for 2025, which is below the industry average of 3.1, indicating potential for valuation upside [15][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Health with a target price of HK$55.17, representing a potential upside of 54% from the current price of HK$35.75 [2][15]. Core Insights - JD Health's revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 58.16 billion, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth, with a significant profit increase of 94% to RMB 4.16 billion [6][9]. - The company is expected to continue optimizing its product mix, leading to a gross profit increase to RMB 13.31 billion, a 12.2% rise [6]. - The report highlights the robust growth in service revenue, with expectations of a 17% year-on-year increase from 2025 to 2027 [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025E: RMB 67.09 billion - 2026E: RMB 77.22 billion - 2027E: RMB 87.60 billion [9][12] - **Gross Profit Projections**: - 2025E: RMB 15.86 billion - 2026E: RMB 18.25 billion - 2027E: RMB 20.79 billion [9][12] - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2025E: RMB 4.53 billion - 2026E: RMB 5.34 billion - 2027E: RMB 6.30 billion [9][12] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025E: RMB 1.41 - 2026E: RMB 1.67 - 2027E: RMB 1.97 [9][12] Market Comparison - JD Health's target price corresponds to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.4 times for 2025, which is below the industry average of 3.1 times for comparable internet healthcare platforms [15][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" with a target price of HK$110.40, representing a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HK$95.10 [1][8]. Core Views - The report maintains the earnings forecast and "Buy" rating, raising the target price by 16% to HK$110.40, corresponding to a 19 times P/E for 2026 [8]. - Revenue and operating profit are expected to grow by 10.0% and 10.9% year-on-year in 2025, respectively, while net profit is projected to decrease slightly by 1.0% [9][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach RMB 770.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.0% [7][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 5.03, RMB 4.98, and RMB 5.46, respectively, reflecting a 1% increase for both 2024 and 2025 [2][9]. Revenue Growth Drivers - Anta brand is anticipated to achieve a revenue growth of 8.4% in 2025, driven by the expansion of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) stores and the introduction of "super Anta" stores focusing on cost-effectiveness [7]. - FILA brand is expected to see a revenue increase of 6.4% in 2025, following adjustments in core product designs [7]. - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, are projected to grow over 30% year-on-year in 2025 [6]. Market Position and Valuation - Anta Sports' market capitalization is approximately US$34.354 billion, with a current share count of 2,807 million [1]. - The report highlights that Anta Sports is trading at a P/E ratio of 18.0 for 2025, which is competitive compared to peers [10].