Group 1: Tesla (TSLA) Insights - Tesla's Robotaxi fleet is expected to expand significantly, covering 25-50% of the U.S. by the end of 2026, with over 500 vehicles already operational in Austin[5] - The target price for Tesla is set at $520.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating, with projected revenues of $114 billion, $141.1 billion, and $176.9 billion for 2026 to 2028[6] - The company is transitioning to a subscription sales model, which may negatively impact short-term margins but is expected to enhance recurring revenue in the long run[5] Group 2: TSMC (TSM) Insights - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 reached NT$1,046.09 billion (approximately $33.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 30.3%[9] - The target price for TSMC is adjusted to $450.00, with a projected AI revenue CAGR exceeding 58% over the next five years[12] - TSMC's advanced process technology contributed 77% of revenue, with a long-term gross margin target of over 56%[10]

Market Performance - First Call portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 17% from October 2025 to present, outperforming QQQ (4.48%) and SPY (4.87%) significantly[5] - In January 2026, the First Call portfolio recorded a monthly return of 10.58%[5] Currency and Commodity Trends - The Brazilian Real appreciated by 5.79% against the US Dollar in January, while the Australian Dollar also showed strength[8] - Emerging markets outperformed the US market in January, with South Korea (EWY) leading at 25.9%, followed by Peru (EPU) at 19.7%, Colombia (COL) at 17.73%, and Brazil (EWZ) at 16.59%[10] Investment Strategy Adjustments - The portfolio adjusted positions by liquidating high-volatility stocks and increasing holdings in more stable assets, such as raising the position in CCJ to 10%[8] - Cash reserves were increased to allow for potential buying opportunities in the market[8] Economic Outlook - The US Dollar is expected to stabilize or appreciate in the short term, with potential upward movement due to technical support from short covering in February[20] - The Federal Reserve's recent stance indicates a stable economic expansion, which may limit the appreciation of the Euro and Yen against the Dollar[20] Technology and AI Developments - AI applications like Clawdbot and cowork are gaining traction, enhancing operational efficiency despite concerns over permissions and costs[21] - The integration of Gemini mode in Google Chrome is expected to enhance the ecosystem's capabilities, making it more user-friendly and powerful[21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [2] Core Insights - Tencent is undergoing a strategic transformation driven by AI, with a focus on organizational restructuring and cloud business profitability milestones. The CEO, Ma Huateng, emphasized that AI is the only area worth significant investment at this time, and the company has successfully transitioned to self-developed products [2][3] - The launch of the "Yuanbao" project marks a significant step in Tencent's "AI + social" strategy, aiming to enhance user engagement through integrated social features and AI capabilities. Tencent plans to invest 1 billion yuan to promote this initiative, targeting exponential growth in AI user numbers during the 2026 Spring Festival [3] - Tencent's gaming business is thriving, with overseas revenue exceeding 10 billion USD, accounting for approximately 30% of total gaming revenue. The company has regained confidence in its core gaming operations, providing stable cash flow and growth potential [4] - In response to challenges in the short drama sector, Tencent Video is shifting towards an "advertising-driven" model while maintaining high-quality long-form content. The company has already produced several successful short drama projects and is exploring new ways to balance content depth and traffic efficiency [5] Summary by Sections Strategic Overview - Tencent's current strategy focuses on AI-driven organizational restructuring and achieving profitability in its cloud business, with a clear commitment to investing in AI technologies [2] AI Initiatives - The "Yuanbao" project represents a critical advancement in Tencent's AI and social strategy, integrating various social features and aiming for significant user growth through substantial promotional investments [3] Gaming Performance - Tencent's gaming division is performing robustly, with a notable increase in overseas revenue, showcasing the company's strong competitive advantage and ability to adapt to market changes [4] Content Strategy - Tencent Video is adapting to market pressures by transitioning to an advertising-driven model while continuing to invest in high-quality content, aiming to leverage its large user base for enhanced revenue generation [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, highlighting its potential in the oncology sector with innovative drug candidates [7][36]. Core Insights - The company, 加科思, focuses on developing targeted therapies for cancer, particularly through its KRAS inhibitors and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) [4][8]. - The management team, led by founder Dr. Wang Yinxiang, has extensive experience in drug development, particularly in oncology [2][3]. - 加科思's lead product, 戈来雷塞 (Glecirasib), has been approved for the treatment of KRAS G12C mutation-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in China, marking a significant milestone for the company [10][37]. - The company is advancing multiple clinical trials, including JAB-23E73, a pan-KRAS inhibitor, which is expected to enter pivotal studies in 2026 [36][37]. Company Overview - 加科思 is headquartered in Beijing with additional offices in Shanghai and Boston, employing over 210 staff, primarily in preclinical and clinical development [3]. - The company has established a robust pipeline focusing on the KRAS signaling pathway, with several drug candidates targeting different nodes of this pathway [4][5]. Product Pipeline - The product pipeline includes: - JAB-3312 (SHP2 inhibitor) and Glecirasib (KRAS G12C inhibitor) for NSCLC [12]. - JAB-BX600, a tADC targeting KRAS G12D, which is designed to enhance drug delivery and efficacy [23][24]. - JAB-BX467, an iADC that aims to convert cold tumors into hot tumors by recruiting immune cells [27][28]. Clinical Data - Glecirasib has shown promising clinical results, with a 49.6% objective response rate (ORR) and an 86.3% disease control rate (DCR) in a pivotal study for 2L NSCLC [10][11]. - The combination of Glecirasib and JAB-3312 in first-line NSCLC treatment demonstrated a 71% ORR, significantly outperforming standard therapies [12][13]. Financial Performance - The company reported a 100% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, driven by sales from Glecirasib and collaboration agreements [35]. - The company maintains a strong cash position, with 1.07 billion yuan in cash and available credit to support ongoing clinical development [35]. Strategic Partnerships - 加科思 has entered into strategic partnerships, including a collaboration with 阿斯利康 for JAB-23E73, which includes significant milestone payments and revenue sharing [37].

Portfolio Performance - The portfolio net value increased from 1.000 in September 2025 to 1.175 by January 23, 2026, reflecting a growth of 17.5%[5] - The portfolio volatility was recorded at 11.16% in January 2026, compared to 8.60% in October 2025[5] Adjustments in Holdings - The total storage position was reduced from 17% to 12% due to anticipated volatility from upcoming earnings reports from major companies[6] - The allocation for non-ferrous metals was adjusted to 15%, while nuclear power was increased to 18%[6] - A new position of 2% was established in the commercial aerospace core stock, RKL[6] Macro Observations - The Nasdaq ETF (Invesco QQQ Trust) showed a year-to-date increase of 17.09%[7] - The VIX index, indicating market volatility, rose by 2.88% recently, suggesting increased market uncertainty[7] - Gold prices increased by 1.35%, reflecting a 80.10% rise over the past year[7] Energy Sector Insights - The U.S. electricity demand is projected to triple from 200 TWH to 640 TWH by 2035, indicating a significant increase in energy needs[7] - The report highlights a structural change in the U.S. electricity system, emphasizing the need for stable policies and supply chains for nuclear energy[7] Market Trends - The report notes a significant rise in rare earth companies, with CRML increasing by nearly 200% and USAR by 108% in three weeks, indicating speculative market behavior[9] - The market is characterized by a shift towards smaller-cap stocks, with larger companies showing stagnant performance, raising concerns about market stability[9]

Financial Overview - Tesla's Q4 2025 total revenue is expected to be $24.49 billion, with automotive revenue at $17.29 billion, energy revenue at $3.83 billion, and services and other revenue at $3.38 billion[3] - The projected gross margin is 17.0%, with automotive Non-GAAP gross margin at 14.3% and energy gross margin at 29.1%[3] - Operating profit is anticipated to be $1.05 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 4.3%[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be $1.05 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) at $0.30 and Non-GAAP EPS at $0.44[3] Production and Delivery Expectations - Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries are projected at 418,000 units, with Model 3/Y accounting for 407,000 units and other models for 12,000 units, falling short of market expectations[3] - Energy deployment is expected to reach 14.2 GWh, exceeding market expectations and marking a quarterly record[3] - Total vehicle deliveries for 2025 are forecasted at 1.636 million units, with production capacity at 1.655 million units and energy deployment at 46.7 GWh[3] 2026 Projections - For 2026, vehicle deliveries are expected to be 1.723 million units, with energy deployment at 65.1 GWh[4] - Total revenue for 2026 is projected to be $104.1 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders at $5.2 billion and Non-GAAP EPS at $2.03[4] - Capital expenditures are expected to be $10.9 billion, with free cash flow projected at $2.9 billion[4]

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 【公司评论】 特斯拉 2025Q4 业绩前瞻 【行业评论】 互联网行业周报 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——First Call 一月策略（二） 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 总第 4952 期 2026 年 1 月 27 日 星期二 研究观点 第一上海 新力量 New Force 【公司评论】 | 李京霖 | | --- | 852-25321957 jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 唐伊莲 alice.tang@firstshanghai.com.hk | 行业 | 汽车 | | --- | --- | | 股价 | 449.06 美元 | | 市值 | 1.49 万亿美元 | | 总股本 | 33.26 亿股 | | 52 周高/低 | 499 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies in the advanced packaging industry and highlights potential investment opportunities in CPU manufacturers like AMD and Intel [3][4]. Core Insights - Intel's recent earnings report confirms a shortage of CPUs, with a revenue of $13.67 billion for Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 4.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%. The client computing group (CCG) revenue was $8.19 billion, down 6.6% year-on-year, while the data center and AI (DCAI) segment saw a revenue increase of 8.9% to $4.74 billion [2]. - The report emphasizes the rising importance of CPU performance in the Agentic AI era, suggesting that CPU shortages could significantly enhance the profitability of related companies [3]. - The advanced packaging supply chain is experiencing increased demand due to AI investments, with companies like TSMC facing capacity constraints and price increases expected in the packaging sector [4]. - Domestic packaging companies are anticipated to benefit from strong overseas demand and a surge in local demand for advanced packaging processes in 2026 [4]. - The report highlights the emergence of domestic computing power solutions, with significant investments from major internet companies expected in 2026, indicating a growing market for domestic computing power [5][6]. Summary by Sections Intel's Financial Performance - Intel's Q4 2025 revenue was $13.67 billion, with a decline in CCG revenue and growth in DCAI revenue. The guidance for Q1 2026 is between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, lower than expected due to capacity constraints [2]. Advanced Packaging Industry - The advanced packaging sector is experiencing a boom, with companies like ASE and Amkor expected to raise prices by 5-20% due to high demand and limited supply [4]. Domestic Computing Power - The report identifies a strong opportunity for domestic computing power solutions, with significant investments from companies like ByteDance and Alibaba expected to drive demand in 2026 [6]. IC Substrate Supply Chain - The IC substrate supply chain is facing shortages due to limited supply of glass fiber, with domestic companies likely to benefit from price increases in the market [7]. Global Computing Power Demand - The report anticipates sustained high growth in computing power demand driven by AI applications, with companies like Google planning to double their computing power every six months [8]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks, including domestic computing power companies like Cambricon and SMIC, as well as companies in the advanced packaging and IC substrate sectors [10].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for multiple companies within the retail, technology, and internet sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [11]. Core Insights - Alibaba's Qianwen app has surpassed 100 million monthly active users within two months of its launch, showcasing significant user growth and a strategic shift towards becoming a "super entry" for task management [4]. - WeChat's small store has entered a new growth phase, with a 1.7 times year-on-year increase in the average number of active merchants, and aims to enhance its e-commerce infrastructure through various initiatives [5]. - ByteDance's Douzi 2.0 has been launched, focusing on three core functionalities that aim to transform AI into a collaborative partner for workplace efficiency [9][10]. Summary by Sections Alibaba - The Qianwen app has achieved over 100 million monthly active users, marking a significant milestone in its growth trajectory [4]. - The app's recent update integrates various Alibaba ecosystem services and introduces a task assistant feature, indicating a strategic pivot towards practical AI applications [4]. Tencent - WeChat's small store has seen a 1.7 times increase in active merchants year-on-year, with plans to enhance brand presence through reduced deposit requirements and new social features [5]. - The projected gross merchandise volume (GMV) for WeChat's small store is expected to double in 2025, reaching between 0.6 to 1 trillion [5]. Pinduoduo - Pinduoduo is currently under investigation by multiple government departments, which may impact its business operations and marketing activities [6][7]. - The company has faced a fine of 100,000 yuan due to tax compliance issues, which could further affect its market position during peak shopping seasons [6][8]. ByteDance - The launch of Douzi 2.0 emphasizes a shift from a single-task AI tool to a comprehensive workplace assistant, enhancing user capabilities through modular skills and programming features [9][10]. - The new functionalities aim to create a closed-loop system for task management, promoting proactive engagement from the AI [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 15.00, representing a potential upside of 37.7% from the current price of HKD 10.89 [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of HKD 2.53 billion to HKD 2.57 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth of 45% to 60% compared to 2024, which aligns with the company's equity incentive targets [8]. - The TV segment has shown significant improvement, with a 5.3% increase in TV shipments to 21.08 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, and a remarkable 153% growth in global shipments of TCL MiniLED TVs [8]. - A joint venture with Sony is set to enhance global and high-end development, with TCL holding a 51% stake. This partnership is expected to leverage TCL's supply chain and cost control advantages alongside Sony's advanced imaging technology and brand value [8]. - The report anticipates that the collaboration will allow TCL to transition from "scale expansion" to "brand globalization," enhancing its market share in high-end segments [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 78.99 billion in 2023 to HKD 153.96 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.5% [4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 15.7% by 2027, with net profit increasing from HKD 744 million in 2023 to HKD 3.51 billion in 2027 [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 0.33 in 2023 to HKD 1.39 in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][9]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 32.9x in 2023 to 7.8x by 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4].