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拼多多（PDD.US） 更新报告 买入 2024 年 11 月 22 日 聚焦高质量发展，关税风险可能加速兑现 国内电商聚焦高质量发展：2024 年前三季度社会消费品零售总额同比 增长 3.2%，其中实物商品网上零售额同比增长 7.9%。9 月伴随以旧换新 补贴政策落地，家电零售额同比增长 20.5%，10 月以来社会零售数据增 速回暖，预计四季度整体市场 GMV 将环比复苏。在更加理性的消费环境 下，平台之间的竞争聚焦价格力、用户体验和增长质量等多个维度。拼 多多继续对商家进行费用减免和扶持，同时四季度可能加大补贴力度来 保持价格力，预计中短期货币化率和利润率的趋势将会延续。 关税可能对 Temu 造成打击：我们预计 2024 年 Temu 全球销售额有望达 到 480 亿美元，全年成本结构将持续优化。考虑到特朗普上台和外部环 境的变化，我们认为关税相关的风险存在加速兑现的可能性，对于跨境 电商的全托管业务可能带来一定打击。 Q3 财报不及预期，加大投入换成长：第三季度收入 993.54 亿元人民 币，YoY+44%，不及市场预期。其中，线上营销服务收入 493.51 亿元， YoY+24%，连续三个季度降 ...

康希诺生物（6185） 更新报告 流脑疫苗带动季度恢复盈利，多管线构建未来增长点 买入 2024 年 11 月 22 日 高小迪 852-25321960 疫情后首次实现单季度盈利：2024Q3 公司营收 2.64 亿元（同比+76.1%， 下同）。前三季度共计营收 5.67 亿元（+222.9%），扣除新冠疫苗预估退 货影响，同比增长 36.9%。前三季度销售费用 1.96 亿元（+1.2%），管理费 用 1.17 亿元（-37.6%），研发费用 2.72 亿元（-41.0%），管理费用和研 发费用支出都有明显降低，公司费用管控效果显著。此外得益于存货及资 产管理的不断优化，公司前三季度资产减值损失同比减少 7.77 亿元，归母 净亏损缩窄至 2.22 亿元。其中 Q3 归母净利润 264 万，在新冠疫情之后首 次实现季度盈利。扣非归母净亏损 672 万。 曼海欣增速喜人，扩龄申报上市在即：公司流脑疫苗产品收入取得高速 增长，前三季度录得 5.16 亿元，同比增长 39.07%。曼海欣在短期内仍将是 国内唯一的 MCV4 产品，有利于其进一步巩固在中国市场的地位。其 4-6 岁 扩龄的申报工作也在积极推进中 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|---------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Amer Sports (AS), highlighting its strong financial performance and market expansion [2] Core Viewpoints - Amer Sports achieved significant financial results in Q3 2024, with EPS of $0.14, exceeding market expectations by $0.04, and revenue of $1.35 billion, surpassing expectations by $52.888 million [2] - Sales grew by 17% in Q3, driven by the flagship brand Arc'teryx, with an adjusted operating margin of 14.4%, well above the market expectation of 12.3% [2] - The company's performance in the Chinese market was particularly strong, with a 56% growth, and a 47% increase in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) [2] - Amer Sports raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 16%-17%, with the Technical Apparel segment expected to grow by 34%, Outdoor Performance by 8%, and Ball & Racquet by 4% [5] - The company expects low to mid-double-digit annual revenue growth and a 30-70 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin for 2025 [5] Financial Overview - Technical Apparel segment revenue increased by 34% to $520 million, driven by Arc'teryx, with an adjusted operating margin expanding by 370 basis points to 20% [2] - Outdoor Performance segment revenue grew by 8% to $534 million, primarily due to double-digit growth in Salomon footwear and apparel, though the adjusted operating margin decreased by 40 basis points to 17.5% [2] - Ball & Racquet segment revenue increased by 11% to $300 million, with an adjusted operating margin rising by 600 basis points to 6.9% [2] - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales grew by 41% year-over-year, while wholesale revenue increased by 8% to $870 million [2] Market Performance - In the EMEA region, revenue grew by 4% to $430 million, while the US market saw a 7% increase to $490 million [2] - Arc'teryx opened 9 new brand stores globally, bringing the total to 134 stores worldwide [2] - Salomon's footwear and apparel continued to show double-digit growth, with strong performance in Greater China and the Asia-Pacific region [2] Business Outlook - Amer Sports expects full-year adjusted EPS to be between $0.43 and $0.45, with an effective tax rate of approximately 37% and net financial costs estimated at $180-$190 million [5] - The company forecasts operating revenue of $5.122 billion for 2024, with a 17.3% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $153 million, a 173.1% increase from the previous year [7] - For 2025, operating revenue is projected to reach $5.825 billion, with a 13.7% increase, and net profit is expected to grow by 104% to $312 million [7]

快手（1024） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- ...

公司評論 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.co m.hk | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 来源: Bloomberg 小米集团-W（1810） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------|----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|-----------------|---------------------- ...