| + 852 2532 1957 | | | --- | --- | | Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk | | | 呂彥辛 | | | +852 2532 1539 | | | Alexandra.lyu@ firstshanghai.com.hk | | | 行業 | TMT | | 股價 | 518 港元 | | 市值 | 4.761 萬億港元 | | --- | --- | | 總股本 | 91.9 億 | | 52 周高/低 | 542.5 港元/344.5 港元 | | 每股淨資產 | 123.55 港元 | 股價表現 公司評論 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.co m.hk 2025 年 6 月 10 日 星期二 【公司評論】 騰訊控股（700.HK）：週報 電商：微信小店內測"跟朋友一起買"拼單功能 微信小店近期內測"跟朋友一起買"拼單功能，用戶可在微信小店首頁看到提示， 點擊進入拼單頁面。用戶既能直接下單，也能通過微信好友或社群分享拼團連結。 拼團時訂單金額自動累計，達到商家設定標準即可觸發優惠，未達門檻訂單自動退 款，且平臺會 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [2]. Core Insights - Tencent is enhancing its e-commerce capabilities through the introduction of a group buying feature in WeChat Mini Stores, shifting from a transaction-oriented model to a social-oriented one, which could lower consumer decision costs and differentiate it from competitors like Pinduoduo [4]. - The launch of the "VISVISE" AI solution for game development indicates Tencent's commitment to integrating AI across the gaming industry, aiming to improve efficiency and creativity in game production [5]. - Tencent's AI app, Yuanbao, has seen a decline in downloads, attributed to a cooling market and a strategic shift towards better integration with core Tencent apps, focusing on user growth efficiency [6]. - The upcoming mobile game "Valorant: Source Action" is expected to generate significant revenue, with projections estimating annual income of at least 6 billion to 7 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest [7]. Summary by Sections E-commerce - WeChat Mini Stores are testing a new group buying feature that allows users to share links and accumulate order amounts for discounts, enhancing the social aspect of e-commerce [4]. AI Development - Tencent has launched the "VISVISE" AI solution for game creation, which includes tools for model generation and character animation, marking a shift towards a comprehensive AI system in gaming [5]. - The performance of Tencent's AI app, Yuanbao, has declined, with a focus now on integrating it with other Tencent applications to improve user engagement and growth [6]. Gaming - The mobile adaptation of "Valorant" has begun testing, with high anticipation reflected in over 20 million pre-registrations, and is expected to significantly contribute to Tencent's revenue [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 987 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 63.5% from the current price of 603.66 RMB [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic AI chip market, providing a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud, edge, and terminal intelligent chips, along with foundational software development tools [5][7]. - The demand for computing power is expected to surge due to the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence applications, particularly following the emergence of models like ChatGPT [5][34]. - The ongoing U.S.-China tech competition is accelerating the need for domestic chip alternatives, potentially leading to a market worth hundreds of billions [5][42]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 84.2 billion RMB, 134.8 billion RMB, and 216.0 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 27.7 billion RMB, 48.1 billion RMB, and 82.3 billion RMB respectively [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company reported actual revenues of 709 million RMB in 2023, with projections of 1,174 million RMB in 2024 and a significant increase to 8,416 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 616.6% [4]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 2,766 million RMB, with a substantial increase in earnings per share from -2.0 RMB in 2023 to 6.6 RMB in 2025 [4]. Product and Technology Development - The company has developed the SiYuan 590 chip, which matches the performance of NVIDIA's A100, and is expected to lead the domestic high-performance chip market [5][20]. - The company has established a robust software platform, Cambricon NeuWare, which integrates various development tools and libraries to enhance the usability and performance of its chips [26][58]. - The MLU-Link technology enhances inter-chip communication, significantly improving the efficiency of multi-chip systems [30]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is recognized as a benchmark in the domestic intelligent computing chip sector, with a complete product ecosystem that includes cloud, edge, and terminal solutions [5][7]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a shift towards domestic chip solutions due to U.S. export restrictions, creating a favorable environment for the company's growth [5][52]. Research and Development - The company has maintained a high R&D expenditure, with rates exceeding 100% of revenue, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and product development [67]. - The focus of R&D includes optimizing chip architecture for various AI applications and enhancing the software ecosystem to support large model training and inference [68].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of 987 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 63.5% from the current price of 603.66 RMB [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic AI chip market, providing a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud, edge, and terminal smart chips, along with foundational software development kits [4][5]. - The demand for computing power is surging due to the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence applications, particularly following the emergence of models like ChatGPT [4][34]. - The report anticipates significant growth in the domestic computing power market, driven by the need for AI chips, with projections indicating a doubling of market capacity by 2025 [4][42]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 8.42 billion RMB in 2025, with net profits projected at 2.77 billion RMB, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2023: 709 - 2024: 1,174 - 2025: 8,416 - 2026: 13,483 - 2027: 21,603 - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2023: (848) - 2024: (452) - 2025: 2,766 - 2026: 4,808 - 2027: 8,228 - Earnings per Share (in RMB): - 2023: (2.0) - 2024: (1.1) - 2025: 6.6 - 2026: 11.5 - 2027: 19.7 - Price-to-Earnings Ratio: - 2025: 91.1 - 2026: 52.4 - 2027: 30.6 [3][4]. Company Overview - The company, founded in 2016, has established itself as a key player in the AI chip sector, with a focus on high-performance computing solutions [4][6]. - The core team consists of experienced professionals from prestigious institutions, enhancing the company's innovation and stability [9][10]. - The company has developed a series of products that compete directly with NVIDIA's offerings, including the latest SiYuan 590 chip, which matches the performance of NVIDIA's A100 [4][22]. Market Context - The global demand for AI chips is expected to grow significantly, with North American cloud providers increasing their capital expenditures for AI computing [35][41]. - The domestic market is projected to see substantial investments in AI computing power, with major players like Alibaba and Tencent expected to increase their capital expenditures significantly by 2025 [42][43]. - The competitive landscape is influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the U.S. restrictions on chip exports to China, which may benefit domestic manufacturers [51][52].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Coinbase Global (COIN.O) with a target price of $305.00, representing a potential upside of 15.90% from the current price of $263.16 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes Coinbase's diversified revenue structure and long-term vision as key drivers for sustained growth. The company is expected to benefit from being included in the S&P 500 index, which will enhance liquidity and attract passive fund inflows [4][44]. - The report highlights significant growth in subscription and service revenues, driven by stablecoin USDC, despite a decline in trading revenues. The acquisition of Deribit is seen as a strategic move to fill product gaps in the derivatives market [4][41]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2023 are $3.109 billion, with a projected growth of 111.16% in 2024, followed by steady growth in subsequent years [3][46]. - **Net Income**: The net income is projected to rise significantly to $2.579 billion in 2024, before experiencing a decline in 2025 [3][46]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Adjusted EPS is forecasted to be $9.48 in 2024, with a subsequent decline in 2025 [3][46]. - **Operating Expenses**: Total operating expenses are expected to increase from $3.270 billion in 2023 to $4.733 billion in 2025 [46]. Revenue Breakdown - **Total Revenue**: In Q1 2025, total revenue was reported at $2.034 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 24.23% [4][9]. - **Trading Revenue**: Trading revenue for Q1 2025 was $1.262 billion, reflecting a decrease from the previous quarter [4][9]. - **Subscription and Service Revenue**: This segment reached a record high of $698 million in Q1 2025, primarily driven by USDC revenue [4][9]. Strategic Developments - **Acquisition of Deribit**: Coinbase's acquisition of Deribit for $2.9 billion is aimed at enhancing its derivatives trading capabilities and expanding market share [4][41]. - **Regulatory Environment**: Positive regulatory developments, including the dismissal of a lawsuit by the SEC and bipartisan support for stablecoin legislation, are expected to create a more favorable operating environment for Coinbase [4][9]. Market Position - Coinbase holds a 66% market share in the U.S. cryptocurrency exchange market, positioning it as a primary beneficiary of supportive U.S. policies for the crypto industry [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on domestic computing power opportunities in the context of U.S. restrictions on advanced chip exports to China and the increasing urgency for domestic chip replacement [3]. Core Insights - NVIDIA is set to launch a new custom chip B40 for the Chinese market, priced between $6,500 and $8,000, significantly lower than the previous H20 model priced at $10,000 to $12,000. The new chip's performance is expected to be inferior to both its predecessor and mainstream domestic chips [2][5]. - The urgency for domestic computing power alternatives continues to rise due to geopolitical tensions and export restrictions [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - NVIDIA's new chip B40 will not utilize CoWoS technology and will replace HBM with GDDR7 memory, resulting in a bandwidth of 1.7TB/s, down from 4TB/s in the H20 model. The expected shipment volume for 2025 is 1 million units [2][5]. - Xiaomi has launched its self-developed 3nm flagship chip "玄戒 O1," which integrates 19 billion transistors and will debut in the Xiaomi 15S Pro. The company has invested over 13.5 billion yuan in the chip's development [5]. - AMD is selling its ZT Systems server manufacturing business for $3 billion, focusing on chip design and software support while maintaining relationships with key clients [6]. - TSMC has declined offers to build factories in India, opting instead to collaborate with Powerchip for wafer fabrication [6]. - Semiconductor capital expenditure is projected to grow by 27% in Q1 2025, driven by AI-related investments, with memory-related investments increasing by 57% [6]. - GigaDevice plans to issue H shares to enhance its global strategy and brand image [6]. - NVIDIA has introduced NVLink Fusion technology, allowing third-party processors to work with NVIDIA chips, marking a significant shift in its ecosystem [6]. - Qualcomm is re-entering the data center market, expanding its CPU offerings beyond mobile and PC [6]. - TSMC plans to increase wafer prices, with a 10% rise expected for 2nm wafers [6]. - NVIDIA has launched the NVIDIA DGX Cloud Lepton platform, providing GPU resources to AI developers globally [7]. - GlobalWafers America has officially opened a new semiconductor wafer manufacturing facility in Texas, with plans for further investment [7]. - Samsung is developing a new product that combines NAND flash with DRAM memory, targeting commercialization by 2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1,900.00 CNY, representing a potential upside of 20.8% from the current price of 1,572.60 CNY [6][7][8]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation focusing on cultural heritage and market adaptation to changing consumer scenarios, aiming to enhance its brand value and pricing power in the high-end liquor market [8]. - The management has emphasized maintaining quality and brand strength while expanding into new consumption scenarios, such as family gatherings and personal milestones, indicating a shift from product-centric to lifestyle-oriented value creation [8]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected total revenues increasing from 150.56 billion CNY in 2023 to 223.57 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.0% [5][9]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from 74.73 billion CNY in 2023 to 112.69 billion CNY in 2027, with a similar CAGR of around 8.8% [5][9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 150.56 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 19.0%, and is expected to reach 174.14 billion CNY in 2024, a growth of 15.7% [5][9]. - The net profit for 2023 stands at 74.73 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 19.2%, projected to increase to 86.23 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 15.4% [5][9]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 59.49 CNY in 2023 to 89.71 CNY by 2027, indicating a steady increase in shareholder value [5][9]. Strategic Focus - The company is implementing a three-phase strategy focusing on internationalization and youth engagement, aiming to create new growth drivers [8]. - Short-term strategies include optimizing customer structure and expanding consumption scenarios, while mid-term strategies focus on cultural export and international value creation [8]. - Long-term goals involve building a resilient business ecosystem that enhances risk management and stakeholder value [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1,900.00 CNY, representing a potential upside of 20.8% from the current price of 1,572.60 CNY [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation focusing on cultural heritage and innovative marketing to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and market conditions. This includes expanding consumption scenarios beyond traditional settings to family gatherings and personal milestones [6]. - The management emphasizes maintaining quality and brand strength while navigating challenges such as economic pressures and industry adjustments. The company aims to leverage its unique brewing process and cultural narrative to sustain its pricing power in the premium liquor market [6]. - The company is implementing a three-phase strategy for internationalization and youth engagement, aiming to create new growth avenues while building a resilient business ecosystem [6]. - Shareholder returns are being enhanced, with a projected actual dividend payout ratio exceeding 80% in 2024, reflecting a shift from growth in scale to value creation [6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of 150,560 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 19.0%. Projections for 2024 and 2025 are 174,144 million CNY and 190,609 million CNY, respectively, indicating growth rates of 15.7% and 9.5% [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 74,734 million CNY, with forecasts of 86,228 million CNY for 2024 and 95,042 million CNY for 2025, reflecting growth rates of 19.2% and 10.2% [5][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 59.49 CNY, expected to rise to 68.64 CNY in 2024 and 75.66 CNY in 2025 [5][8]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at 1.98 trillion CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.4 at the current stock price [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on domestic computing power opportunities in the context of U.S. restrictions on advanced chip exports to China and the increasing urgency for domestic computing power alternatives [3]. Core Insights - NVIDIA is set to launch a new custom chip B40 for the Chinese market, with a price range of $6,500 to $8,000, significantly lower than the previous H20 model priced at $10,000 to $12,000. The new chip's performance is expected to be inferior to both its predecessor and mainstream domestic chips [2][5]. - The urgency for domestic computing power replacement continues to rise due to geopolitical tensions and restrictions on advanced technology [3]. - Xiaomi has launched its self-developed 3nm flagship chip "玄戒 O1," marking it as the fourth company globally to release a 3nm mobile processor, with significant R&D investment exceeding 13.5 billion yuan [5]. Summary by Sections NVIDIA Custom Chip Launch - NVIDIA's new custom chip B40 is expected to be released by the end of June, with a projected shipment of 1 million units in 2025. The chip will utilize GDDR7 memory instead of HBM, resulting in a bandwidth reduction from 4TB/s to 1.7TB/s [2][5]. Domestic Computing Power - The report emphasizes the growing importance of domestic computing power solutions in light of U.S. export restrictions and the competitive landscape [3]. Industry Developments - AMD plans to sell its ZT Systems server manufacturing business for $3 billion, focusing on chip design and software support [7]. - TSMC has rejected offers to build factories in India, opting instead to collaborate with local firms [7]. - Semiconductor capital expenditure is projected to grow by 27% in Q1 2025, driven by investments in AI-related technologies [7]. - GlobalWafers America has officially opened a new advanced semiconductor wafer manufacturing facility in Texas, with plans for further investment [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 50.00, representing a potential upside of 16.27% from the current price of HKD 43.00 [3][5]. Core Views - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong demand from consumer electronics and automotive sectors, despite short-term profit expectations being impacted by unforeseen events [3][5]. - The company is positioned as the third-largest wafer foundry globally, with expectations for significant growth driven by advancements in advanced process technologies and domestic semiconductor industry development [5][6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of USD 6.32 billion, a decrease of 13.09% year-on-year, with a projected recovery to USD 8.03 billion in 2024, representing a 27.02% increase [4][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was USD 492.75 million, down 50.35% from the previous year, but is expected to rebound to USD 851.73 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 72.85% [4][6]. - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 22.5%, with a forecasted decline in revenue for Q2 2025 due to production issues [5][6]. Production and Capacity - The company’s production capacity increased to 974,000 equivalent 8-inch wafers in Q1 2025, with a utilization rate of 89.6%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - The company plans to expand its capacity by an average of 50,000 pieces of 12-inch wafers per month annually, driven by demand from AI, automotive, and IoT products [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the demand for AI-related products is expected to grow by over 10% in 2025, contributing to an increase in wafer shipments despite a slight decline in prices [5]. - The company’s revenue from the U.S. market accounted for 12.6% in Q1 2025, reflecting a 3.7 percentage point increase due to tariff policies driving demand from overseas customers [5].